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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:20:40 PM EDT
Initially it's easy to be opposed to the idea of UI, but it actually starts making sense when you think about it.
-Without a UI the masses of unemployed workers will just turn to crime or riot, and society will need to spend a huge amount of money fighting against this and locking people up in prison. The amount of money currently spent to incarcerate a prisoner for a year could easily be used to instead pay them a UI and avoid the financial motivation for crime in the first place. -Without a UI, how would our economy continue to work in a world where automation replaces >50% of current jobs? The unemployed wouldn't have money to continue buying things, and the whole economy would falter due to the huge drop in consumption. -Obviously this won't start to become a major issue until 20+ years from now, but society will need a solution to this. How we handle this issue will likely determine whether we end up with a futuristic utopia or a Dredd/Hunger Games type of society. -IMO any UI would need to come with certain conditions such as a 1-child policy followed by sterilization after having 1 child. The goal is to peacefully reduce the amount of unneeded laborers. OR, I suppose we could just try to ban automation for the sake of preserving jobs 
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/18/elon-musk-says-robots-will-push-us-to-a-universal-basic-income-heres-how-it-would-work.html?__source=yahoo Burger flippers, truck drivers, and cashiers are going to be out of work in the coming decades, thanks to the accelerating pace of robotics and automation technology, some experts warn. And as large swaths of the population lose their jobs, the only viable solution might be for the government to institute a universal basic income, which would mean paying every resident a fixed amount of money to cover their needs. There's a lot that's still unclear about universal basic income, but here is what's known so far. Why universal basic income may be necessary A 2013 study by Oxford University's Carl Frey and Michael Osborne estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs will potentially be replaced by robots and automated technology in the next 10 to 20 years. Those individuals working in transportation, logistics, office management and production are likely to be the first to lose their jobs to robots, according to the report. In less developed countries, the potential for job loss is more severe. A 2016 analysis from the World Bank estimated that roughly two-thirds of all jobs in developing nations around the globe are susceptible to replacement by automation. As the global workforce modernizes and low-skilled workers lose their jobs, momentum builds around the idea of a universal basic income, or a fixed, regular payment that all residents, no matter their employment status or wealth, would receive from the government. "There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation." -Elon Musk, Founder and CEO of SolarCity, Tesla, and SpaceX Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of SolarCity, Tesla, and SpaceX, recently declared that a universal basic income was a reasonable next step for the U.S. "There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," Musk told CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen." The entrepreneur and futurist is not alone in his sentiments. While no country has fully implemented a universal basic income yet, individuals are experimenting with a version of the idea, as are several Scandinavian nations. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:24:09 PM EDT
[#1]
Quoted:
-Without a UI the masses of unemployed workers will just turn to crime or riot, and society will need to spend a huge amount of money fighting against this and |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:31:24 PM EDT
[#2]
Unless everyone makes the exact same amount you will have crime and riots.
Unless everyone can have whatever they want you will have crime and riots. You will never suppress human nature. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:31:32 PM EDT
[#3]
Automation is happening and it is going to be a major issue and I honestly have no idea what a real "solution" to it will be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qb0Kzb3haK8 
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:34:15 PM EDT
[#4]
Marxists. LOL.
Marx predicted the collapse of capitalism. The argument was that the advance of capitalism would produce enough to meet everyone's needs, so there would be no need for further large scale production. That was supposed to set in motion the events leading to communist utopia. That was, of course, followed by the Population Bomb predictions of mass starvation due to over population. Musk might be a smart guy and skilled at getting people to fund his interests, but he's wrong about this. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:36:44 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Automation is happening and it is going to be a major issue and I honestly have no idea what a real "solution" to it will be Ownership is the solution. I own part of my companies, you own part of your companies. We trade the low cost goods our companies produce for money we spend at other companies producing low cost goods. Own enough stock and you don't need to work, you just have to have robots/other people working for you. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:37:18 PM EDT
[#6]
-Without a UI the masses of unemployed workers will just turn to crime or riot, and society will need to spend a huge amount of money fighting against this and locking people up in prison. The amount of money currently spent to incarcerate a prisoner for a year could easily be used to instead pay them a UI and avoid the financial motivation for crime in the first place. We learned from the War on Poverty that giving out welfare increases crime. A free shit society will be a high crime society. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:39:06 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Ownership is the solution. I own part of my companies, you own part of your companies. We trade the low cost goods our companies produce for money we spend at other companies producing low cost goods. Own enough stock and you don't need to work, you just have to have robots/other people working for you. Where do people born 50 years from now get the money to begin with to buy stock if there are no jobs? |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:41:24 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
-Without a UI, how would our economy continue to work in a world where automation replaces >50% of current jobs? The unemployed wouldn't have money to continue buying things, and the whole economy would falter due to the huge drop in consumption. If automation replaces roughly half the human work involved in a product, then it will cost roughly half as much to produce. The result of this increase in efficiency is that people can now afford more products, which drives higher consumption, which creates new jobs. The net result of all of this is improved quality of life for everyone. All we have to do is make sure that the elite aren't able to use government regulation to stifle competition and steal all the wealth. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:42:18 PM EDT
[#9]
It the horse and buggy VS the automobile all over again!
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:42:33 PM EDT
[#10]
The rightist side of me says that a couple big name, hardcore right economists from the old days advocated UBI, then known as a negative income tax.
The troll side says watch AI obsolete humanity and let the believers in the Protestant work ethic starve to death first. Libertarians to be blown up by AI cops for stealing ketchup packets from an automated McDonalds to feed their kids. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:43:38 PM EDT
[#11]
I actually think Musk is right on this point. Automation is changing the game fast. While there will be new job creation with new technologies. The people who often fill shelve stocking or burger flipping jobs are the lowest common denominator.
We are witnessing technological shift at a crazy exponential rate right now. Give it another 5 years and see what the economic land scape looks like. It will not be limited to lowest common denominator jobs either. There is an excellent story from earlier in this year about a robot lawyer that managed to get over 160,000 citations in London and NYC dismissed. The developer who created software is a 19 year old. We are only seeing the begining of this. At this point i think Friedman was right that a minimum basic income may not be a bad idea to consider. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:44:42 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We learned from the War on Poverty that giving out welfare increases crime. A free shit society will be a high crime society. UI clearly wouldn't work in our current society as there's still plenty of demand for labor. We're still not at the level of automation that requires it. It's an idea that will become more and more inevitable in the future. What does the common worker do when they cannot even get a job at the local burger joint because robots are doing the cooking? Training everybody to be engineers and scientists certainly isn't the answer. Everybody isn't smart or motivated enough for that. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:44:47 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We learned from the War on Poverty that giving out welfare increases crime. A free shit society will be a high crime society. A UBI would actually decrease costs assuming you eliminated all the other entitlement programs. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:45:34 PM EDT
[#14]
As long as my 'basic income' needs exceed those of others, I'm OK with this, right?
Chris |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:46:35 PM EDT
[#15]
I would think that this situation would require a reexamination of the concept of money. If labor is worthless, then the only question is how to divide up limited resources.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:46:57 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If automation replaces roughly half the human work involved in a product, then it will cost roughly half as much to produce. The result of this increase in efficiency is that people can now afford more products, which drives higher consumption, which creates new jobs. The net result of all of this is improved quality of life for everyone. All we have to do is make sure that the elite aren't able to use government regulation to stifle competition and steal all the wealth. It won't matter if the goods are half price if you don't have any money due to not having a job. Our economic system will actually begin to fray and break down at a certain level of automation. As long as there are plenty of jobs the "Cheaper goods=More consumption" argument works. Decreases in pay won't even hurt too much, as they'll be offset by cheap goods. It's when automation leads to a dramatic decrease in jobs that the system will begin to fail. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:47:56 PM EDT
[#17]
Right, which means it will require more technical skills and intelligence to get a job and be useful in the new "AI" market.
The moron burger flippers should starve when this happens. Darwin wills it. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:48:04 PM EDT
[#18]
Looks like Judge Dredd might not be so fictitious in the future.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:48:34 PM EDT
[#19]
Freaking socalist Luddites, peak jobs everyone!
Since the first automated looms in the mid 1700's mankind has continually invented jobs to replace ones lost. Now you expect it to stop? Even if you had star treks freaking replicators you'd still have the service, entertainment and hand made goods industry! seriously you can buy a knife for a dollar, yet some folks pay hundreds to thousands for a hand made knife. Did automation take that blacksmiths job? Will it ever replace the desire for handmade goods or services? Over the last 50 years, as technology has decreased factory jobs, the service industry has boomed! Do you think that is coincidence?! No, it's the one part Of society finding out what to do with the money saved now that factory C's product is more affordable, while the other parts of society create new jobs around that newly freed up money. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:48:38 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I would think that this situation would require a reexamination of the concept of money. If labor is worthless, then the only question is how to divide up limited resources. The problem is labor won't be worthless, it is just that we will need much less of it. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:49:08 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If automation replaces roughly half the human work involved in a product, then it will cost roughly half as much to produce. The result of this increase in efficiency is that people can now afford more products, which drives higher consumption, which creates new jobs. The net result of all of this is improved quality of life for everyone. All we have to do is make sure that the elite aren't able to use government regulation to stifle competition and steal all the wealth. There will also be new jobs created. We don't really know how the future will unfold. Human ingenuity has proven remarkable. As it is now, I can eat a reasonable meal at Jack in the Box for $2.50. Imagine how cheap it would be if they automate. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:49:14 PM EDT
[#22]
I can be rest assured no fucking robot will ever take my job.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:49:22 PM EDT
[#23]
It's going to happen one way or another. Aside from the implicit control you give to the government in return for the money, I can't really see it as a bad thing. Of course, that one little thing is a VERY bad thing.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:49:43 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
Initially it's easy to be opposed to the idea of UI, but it actually starts making sense when you think about it. -Without a UI the masses of unemployed workers will just turn to crime or riot, and society will need to spend a huge amount of money fighting against this and locking people up in prison. The amount of money currently spent to incarcerate a prisoner for a year could easily be used to instead pay them a UI and avoid the financial motivation for crime in the first place. -Without a UI, how would our economy continue to work in a world where automation replaces >50% of current jobs? The unemployed wouldn't have money to continue buying things, and the whole economy would falter due to the huge drop in consumption. -Obviously this won't start to become a major issue until 20+ years from now, but society will need a solution to this. How we handle this issue will likely determine whether we end up with a futuristic utopia or a Dredd/Hunger Games type of society. -IMO any UI would need to come with certain conditions such as a 1-child policy followed by sterilization after having 1 child. The goal is to peacefully reduce the amount of unneeded laborers. OR, I suppose we could just try to ban automation for the sake of preserving jobs
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/18/elon-musk-says-robots-will-push-us-to-a-universal-basic-income-heres-how-it-would-work.html?__source=yahoo Burger flippers, truck drivers, and cashiers are going to be out of work in the coming decades, thanks to the accelerating pace of robotics and automation technology, some experts warn. And as large swaths of the population lose their jobs, the only viable solution might be for the government to institute a universal basic income, which would mean paying every resident a fixed amount of money to cover their needs. There's a lot that's still unclear about universal basic income, but here is what's known so far. Why universal basic income may be necessary A 2013 study by Oxford University's Carl Frey and Michael Osborne estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs will potentially be replaced by robots and automated technology in the next 10 to 20 years. Those individuals working in transportation, logistics, office management and production are likely to be the first to lose their jobs to robots, according to the report. In less developed countries, the potential for job loss is more severe. A 2016 analysis from the World Bank estimated that roughly two-thirds of all jobs in developing nations around the globe are susceptible to replacement by automation. As the global workforce modernizes and low-skilled workers lose their jobs, momentum builds around the idea of a universal basic income, or a fixed, regular payment that all residents, no matter their employment status or wealth, would receive from the government. "There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation." -Elon Musk, Founder and CEO of SolarCity, Tesla, and SpaceX Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of SolarCity, Tesla, and SpaceX, recently declared that a universal basic income was a reasonable next step for the U.S. "There is a pretty good chance we end up with a universal basic income, or something like that, due to automation," Musk told CNBC. "Yeah, I am not sure what else one would do. I think that is what would happen." The entrepreneur and futurist is not alone in his sentiments. While no country has fully implemented a universal basic income yet, individuals are experimenting with a version of the idea, as are several Scandinavian nations. A lot more to it than just jobs. How about the whole economic and social impact? There is a good balance between both. Cutting every job possible to make quck gains will cost more in the long run. Is it possible to do the basic income route? Ya, to a degree. The problem will be the people that want jobs that pay more and can't find them. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:49:45 PM EDT
[#25]
What's your job?
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:50:12 PM EDT
[#26]
The Unabomber was right; about the future, not hurting others.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:50:47 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There will also be new jobs created. We don't really know how the future will unfold. Human ingenuity has proven remarkable. As it is now, I can eat a reasonable meal at Jack in the Box for $2.50. Imagine how cheap it would be if they automate. I dont have to imagine, they are already automating. In less than5 years you will most likely see fast food resturants employing half as many people as they do now. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:50:51 PM EDT
[#28]
Quoted:
I can be rest assured no fucking robot will ever take my job. Are you retired? |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:51:39 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There will also be new jobs created. We don't really know how the future will unfold. Human ingenuity has proven remarkable. As it is now, I can eat a reasonable meal at Jack in the Box for $2.50. Imagine how cheap it would be if they automate. It will be $2.50 at a minimum. They know you're willing to pay that, so why would they drop the price? |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:53:15 PM EDT
[#30]
That's a pretty big assumption thinking the majority of criminals will not be criminals if you pay them money. It will never be enough.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:53:40 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I actually think Musk is right on this point. Automation is changing the game fast. While there will be new job creation with new technologies. The people who often fill shelve stocking or burger flipping jobs are the lowest common denominator. We are witnessing technological shift at a crazy exponential rate right now. Give it another 5 years and see what the economic land scape looks like. It will not be limited to lowest common denominator jobs either. There is an excellent story from earlier in this year about a robot lawyer that managed to get over 160,000 citations in London and NYC dismissed. The developer who created software is a 19 year old. We are only seeing the begining of this. At this point i think Friedman was right that a minimum basic income may not be a bad idea to consider. As much as I hate socialism. I have to say I agree. I have thought of this for a while. Even if you want to work if 90% of all the jobs have been automated what are you supposed to do? Automation is going to fundamentally change our economic model. Like it or not it is certainly time to try to think of solutions. I would love to think of a non-socialist way to solve this one. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:53:50 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It will be $2.50 at a minimum. They know you're willing to pay that, so why would they drop the price? This is true the burger will not become significantly cheaper . |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:54:34 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Right, which means it will require more technical skills and intelligence to get a job and be useful in the new "AI" market. The moron burger flippers should starve when this happens. Darwin wills it. Slight problem with this. There are a LOT of them out there, and they'll take society down with them if they just get a "Let them eat cake" response. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 4:59:07 PM EDT
[#34]
I had a friends father who is a retired Air Force Colonel and also worked for Raytheon for many years tell me that automation will put so many many people out of work that rioting and wars will be inevitable.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:01:05 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I had a friends father who is a retired Air Force Colonel and also worked for Raytheon for many years tell me that automation will put so many many people out of work that rioting and wars will be inevitable. He is most likely right, if society does not prepare and understand the implications of what we are facing in the very near future. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:02:24 PM EDT
[#36]
Soma FTMFW.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:02:41 PM EDT
[#37]
... just no
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:03:44 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Unless everyone makes the exact same amount you will have crime and riots. Unless everyone can have whatever they want you will have crime and riots. You will never suppress human nature. This. He's using the same argument about how evil people wouldnt have the motivation to kill if they didnt have firearms. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:03:57 PM EDT
[#39]
So what do we do to curb people who intentionally disrupt the automation to open up a market of their own?
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:04:33 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I had a friends father who is a retired Air Force Colonel and also worked for Raytheon for many years tell me that automation will put so many many people out of work that rioting and wars will be inevitable. Possible. The race has always been, can we develop technologies that provide basic/comfort needs before we automate people's jobs faster than they can re-train (if they can re-train)? Turning a farmer into a factory worker isn't a huge leap. Turning a cashier into a robot repairman or software developer may be a bit more difficult. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:04:44 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I dont have to imagine, they are already automating. In less than5 years you will most likely see fast food resturants employing half as many people as they do now. Yes, but you don't know what jobs the future will bring. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:05:20 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I had a friends father who is a retired Air Force Colonel and also worked for Raytheon for many years tell me that automation will put so many many people out of work that rioting and wars will be inevitable. Possible. The race has always been, can we develop technologies that provide basic/comfort needs before we automate people's jobs faster than they can re-train (if they can re-train)? Turning a farmer into a factory worker isn't a huge leap. Turning a driver into a robot repairman or software developer may be a bit more difficult. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:05:30 PM EDT
[#43]
As long as there is man, there is riots and feuds. Until and unless the heart of man of man changes, no -ism or -acy can make a permanent difference. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:05:51 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It will be $2.50 at a minimum. They know you're willing to pay that, so why would they drop the price? The failure to understand free markets is remarkable here. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:06:26 PM EDT
[#45]
Fuck your communism.
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:12:53 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Slight problem with this. There are a LOT of them out there, and they'll take society down with them if they just get a "Let them eat cake" response. Only if the people with power let them. Mature AI will outcompete cops and soldiers just as much as it beats lawyers and cooks. Imagine Detroit murder closure rates going from 1 in 3 to 99% and preemptive armed defense functioning everywhere a drone's-eye view can reach. A crime wave would incentivize loosening domestic ROE, and the top .01% of starving ex-soldiers could be hired to assist AI security and infrastructure hardening. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:14:26 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Are you retired? No, I drive garbage trucks. 
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:14:54 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Unless everyone makes the exact same amount you will have crime and riots. Unless everyone can have whatever they want you will have crime and riots. You will never suppress human nature. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:16:32 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This. He's using the same argument about how evil people wouldnt have the motivation to kill if they didnt have firearms. Quote HistoryQuoted:
This. He's using the same argument about how evil people wouldnt have the motivation to kill if they didnt have firearms. No, not at all. Firearms are simply one of the methods evil people use to kill. My argument is that poverty can lead to higher crime rates, and it might be cheaper to alleviate the poverty than to lock people up in prison. I'm not saying that poverty directly causes crime though (although it sometimes does). It's more of a trickle down effect. In a poor household the kids frequently get neglected due to the adults struggling to make ends meet. Economic stress also causes a lot of marital instability , domestic abuse, and divorce among other family issues. All of this leads to kids who grow up without much proper parenting, and that is what leads to higher crime rates. Quoted:
Only if the people with power let them. Mature AI will outcompete cops and soldiers just as much as it beats lawyers and cooks. Imagine Detroit murder closure rates going from 1 in 3 to 99% and preemptive armed defense functioning everywhere a drone's-eye view can reach. A crime wave would incentivize loosening domestic ROE, and the top .01% of starving ex-soldiers could be hired to assist AI security and infrastructure hardening. Idk about you, but personally I would prefer seeing a UI rather than seeing some kind of 'robocop/Elysium/Dredd' dystopia become a reality. You are seeing why the elites would love to disarm the population though. With a disarmed population they cannot fight back once they're no longer needed and it's time to load them into the 'vocational training' trains. |
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Posted: 12/9/2016 5:21:54 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No, not at all. Firearms are simply one of the methods evil people use to kill. My argument is that poverty can lead to higher crime rates, and it might be cheaper to alleviate the poverty than to lock people up in prison. I'm not saying that poverty directly causes crime though (although it sometimes does). It's more of a trickle down effect. In a poor household the kids frequently get neglected due to the adults struggling to make ends meet. Economic stress also causes a lot of marital instability , domestic abuse, and divorce among other family issues. All of this leads to kids who grow up without much proper parenting, and that is what leads to higher crime rates. More likely, dysfunctional culture leads to both poverty and crime. |
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