Quoted: Actually, if you are baselining SHTF on a full on nuclear exchange, I would rate your survival chances in this country as greater then 80%. With the current disposition of US startigic weapons, compare to the former Soviet Union (unlikley) or the PRC (more likley) then I would say odds are less then three warheads would make it to the United States, more then likley none if its the PRC. Submarine launched missiles with low warning to impact times combine with liquid fueled ICBM with long prep times = good recipe for premptive strikes.
|
Okay, I may not work in the field of Nuclear Technology/Weapons/Strategy, but I am a very well versed amatuer of the various fields. If you honestly think that Russia is in such a state of shambles that they could only get 3 nukes over to us, then your smoking some seriously good stuff. Ignorance is bliss, up until the point it ends up killing you.
While its true Americas Submarine and Naval force is now unrivalved, that doesnt mean they wont go undetected. The Trident carrying subs will move into the Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, and White Sea, hovering close to the shores of Russia and various European countries, many will also move into various other regions. Russia will see this and it will prompt Russia to go to highest alert. Preemptive attack no longer has the element of surprise, it will be expected.
American missile silos prepped and ready, launch Peacekeepers and Minuteman III's for destinations across the world. Bomber groups leave bases for targets around the world. All Infantry and Naval groups move to predetermined areas. Submarines launch their Trident missiles, approximate detonation over Moscow from the Baltic Sea, 5 minutes. Russian radar picks up missiles inbound from various seas, already on high alert from inbound and stationary American forces, various active sites are ready to launch upon orders. Russia sends up all possible ICBMs, headed for targets primarily in America. Impacts occuring in Russia and China hit with missiles from sea borne vessels first. Americas targets in the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and all potential threats have missiles already impacting and inbound. Russian missiles enroute to America, China, Britain, France, and various other countries. Britain launches what it can primarily aimed at Russia. All nuclear countries attempt to launch, some do, some dont.
Sub-Commands kick into highgear and become fully operational, Moscow is hit by dozens and dozens of Tridents. Impacts occuring at miltary targets and civilian targets alike, Strategic and Tactical sites.
The few operational Russian subs head for target zones off America, most are destroyed by superior American fleets, some manage to slip through.
American Air Force tries to shoot down all inbounds, but taking out a ICBM moving at Mach 20 at 80,000 feet up isnt exactly routine, even SAMs will be hard pressed to stop them. Missiles will get through, far more then 3.
All manner of weapons begin seeing use, EMPs, Biological & Chemical, as well as Nuclear.
Russian missiles hit targets in the countries it aimed for. Eventually the subs launch there weapons. All in all, the world has just seen a good portion of its people killed. America could possibly survive, but it would be badly hurt.
Okay, thats the best I can write in fifteen minutes, give me a couple days and I can write up a more thorough and precise view on the subject. Let me close this by saying, YOUR SMOKING CRACK, if you think in a full on nuclear exchange only 3 missiles make their way to their targets in America. Thats absurd and so is putting an 80% survivability rate in a FULL ON NUCLEAR WAR!!!! That fails to take into account so many things, one major one being fallout. I dont honestly know what shaped your belief in that idea. Any person educated in Nuclear tech will know this, even Edward Teller (one of the biggest supporters of nukes) would laugh at you for such an obscene statement.
If the world went to an all out nuclear war, it means that America, Russia, China and a handful of other nations would attack not only their enemies but any potential enemies. America is now the king of nukes, in terms of deployability, but make no mistake, Russia is still ready to go and fully capable of a serious nuclear exchange (albeit less as impressive as it would have been in the cold war days).
You couldnt possibly deliver a death blow to Russian, Chinese, or American nuclear forces in a single shot. Russia and America have a headless nuclear war setup, there is no head to destroy nor heart to stop, thus no possibility of shutting down the body in one shot. Preemptive doesnt mean taking out your target in one fell swoop, it means attacking first, increasing ones chance of survival, but not ensuring it.
Sorry for being such a dick, but its a little too optisimistic of a statement to make, I mean seriously, 3?