Have enjoyed reading Uhlek's BOB thread, although it's gotten a little heavy as of late.  It got me thinking about the most likely bug out scenarios:

1.  Hillary gets elected President - comes after your guns, children, and what money you have left.

2.  Osama and Omar move into the double wide next door.

3.  Space aliens invade (see Mars Attacks!).



What am I missing?

...a mysterious, toxic cloud drifts over the countryside, changing your friends and neighbors into an army of ravenous, flesh-eating zombies.

You forgot vampires, demons, and everyones favorite, dinosaurs!

...and robot dinosaurs.

Mexico, with half its population already here in the southern states,
invades us and we are plagued by internal attacks by the partizan cells that
are under cover as landscapers.......

1) the klan finally figures out i dont go to their church and comes to visit. i insist on my right to freedom of religion, which offends them. in a fit of righteous indignation  tempers flare and things escalate out of hand.
fortunately i keep a 1911 by the door.

2) natural or man-made disaster makes cities unlivable, all those folks decide to take a vacation in the country. in the interest of taking care of #1, they want to help themselves to food, water and my front yard. completely unacceptable!

The government finally has it with your brilliant quips on AR15.COM.
They realize that you have them totally figured out.  So they use their secret UN gun-seizing Brigade to invade your town.  They swoop in with the black helos, and spray...

...a mysterious, toxic cloud drifts over the countryside, changing your friends and neighbors into an army of ravenous, flesh-eating zombies

2 & 3 I can handle but number 1 scares the crap outta me!

You forgot:

AL GORE GETS ELECTED PRESIDENT!!!!!

How about:

Janet Reno as Attorney General?

Let's not forgett the most likley scenario...

The countries mall ninjas rising up against us and leaving their malls. They would flip out and kill us all! It would be totally sweet because ninjas have real ultimate power!

lol

or even worse, HELL-ary!!!!

Seriously - the only SHTF or TEOTWAWKI scenario I worry about is a big asteroid/comet slamming into the planet.  

After the dust clears, all my damn neighbors will be trying to get all of the spam I've been hoarding!

The Super Volcano under Yellowstone blows...   Covers most of North America with ash and forms a 2 year ash cloud that destroys all plant growth, worldwide, for 2 years plus...   Guess I'll head west at the first sign of renewed activity...

Quoted: ...a mysterious, toxic cloud drifts over the countryside, changing your friends and neighbors into an army of ravenous, flesh-eating zombies.

I hate it when that happens......

...yeah I hate it, too.
But I'm ready, oh yeah, I'm ready.

Thing needed to battle Mutant, flesh-eating zombies:

1) SPAS-12 (without one, you're as good as dead)
2) a PAIR of .50 cal Desert Eagles (a neccessity)
3) Leather pants.
4) Sticks of Dynamite
5) Cigars (for the Dynamite)
6) Bandoleers
7) Dune Buggy that's decorated with corrugated tin and skulls
8) Whiskey

Quoted: ...yeah I hate it, too. But I'm ready, oh yeah, I'm ready. Thing needed to battle Mutant, flesh-eating zombies: 1) SPAS-12 (without one, you're as good as dead) 2) a PAIR of .50 cal Desert Eagles (a neccessity) 3) Leather pants. 4) Sticks of Dynamite 5) Cigars (for the Dynamite) 6) Bandoleers 7) Dune Buggy that's decorated with corrugated tin and skulls 8) Whiskey

What about a leather vest, a sword, and a crossbow?  Don't tell me you are planning on throwing the sticks of dynamite. Thats so 1990.

Posted By DK-Prof: …a big asteroid/comet slamming into the planet. After the dust clears…

On a more serious note, I know from studying geology here @ the Univ of MN that the dust cloud wouldn't clear until at least 1 month to 5 years later... Depending on the mass of the comet/asteroid, and the velocity at which it slams into the earth. We could clearly see 1/4 of the planet's surface being destroyed in a pseudo-atom-bomb style shock wave, polar ice melting, and the sky blackening with dust.

The darkness will curtail photosynthesis, and all outdoor plants/trees WILL die, as well as most underwater plants. Sediment will fall to the earth collecting over time, and greenhouse CO2 gasses will collect without trees creating better oxygen. Most of the world will suffocate.

This is not what I would call SHTF, this is what I would call "COMPLETELY FUCKED!"

Though this does not mean that it is impossible to survive such a disaster/apocalypse, it is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

What I would more call SHTF is a much more frequent occurrence. SHTF is something easily survivable by preparation, especially for those who live in a house in RURAL America.

I live in an apartment in a VERY URBAN area, and am in a much more vulnerable position. Local construction of a "Light Rail" transportation system is threatening power outages in the area for "Relocation" of a massive underground power junction. If power was reported to be out for more than 3 days, there would be QUITE a riot situation here. This would send me packing for my bug-out location with my BOB.

It is unfortunate that Uhlek's BOB thread turned into a FALARAK argument (which IMHO he won, now shut up about it), ‘cuz I, and MANY PEOPLE LIKE ME really DO NEED to plan/prepare to flee in emergency situations.

Yes, I do have a BOB. I have posted some of its contents, and my "Desired Contents" lists as I cannot afford to finish it yet. MY BOB has SAVED ME a great deal of discomfort and emergency in the past, and I will NEVER go out in a car in the Minnesota winter (READ FALL, WINTER, & SPRING) without it! There's nothing like getting stuck in the ditch for several hours (Read t>5 hrs) with no place to call for help within 1.5 miles, and you're TOTALLY not dressed sufficiently to trek that far with the -15 windchill! My BOB has saved me from one hellish emergency, making it a "Mere Inconvenience". I am a FIRM believer in being prepared for emergencies with a GOOD BOB. I *ALWAYS* Laugh at these petty "Winter Car Survival Kits" that have almost nothing of true value.

Quoted: ...yeah I hate it, too. But I'm ready, oh yeah, I'm ready. Thing needed to battle Mutant, flesh-eating zombies: 1) SPAS-12 (without one, you're as good as dead) 2) a PAIR of .50 cal Desert Eagles (a neccessity) 3) Leather pants. 4) Sticks of Dynamite 5) Cigars (for the Dynamite) 6) Bandoleers 7) Dune Buggy that's decorated with corrugated tin and skulls 8) Whiskey

#5 cigars..need those funny looking ones Clint Eastwood always used to smoke in his spaghetti westerns...

Thus my proposed my list of SHTF scenarios:
1. Apartment broken into, DefendSelf/Fight to death. ANYONE breaking into an apartment poses an immediate threat to the safety/life of the inhabitants due to the small size and lack of alternate exits from apartments.
2. Electrical Emergency. Any power outage lasting longer than 3 days. Could cause riots.
3. Riots. Use a discreet BOB, and keep TONS of mace & maybe an ASP baton handy, but out of sight (and a concealed handgun if you can). Get out of dodge FAST! In 1999? there was a genetics convention, and rioters/protesters sprinkled out a canister of cyanide powder all over in a CrackDonalds here, and along a busy downtown street. Canisters were found in the bushes near said street, and in bathroom of McD's IIRC. RIOTS==BAD.
4. WWIII
5. Any threat to your life, or the lives of those you hold dear.

This morning while waiting for a W.A.B.C. (Univ Bus), a 26 yo man threatened to kill me ‘cuz I wouldn't give him $0.25 towards his day's liquor fund. (I didn't have ANY $ with me) So he said "I'm gonna beat you down... I'm gonna slice your throat (sounded more like "phwoat") like a fruit!" At this point since I had not mace with me, I pulled my butterfly knife & said, "I'd LOVE to see you try." He nearly shit himself & ran off! There was a girl at the bus stop who looked scare to death of me afterwards. I decided to walk to my first class then, and subsequently I was 25 minutes late or so.

There are many reasons to prepare for your definitions of SHTF, and there are many different interpretations of SHTF. So your BOB or gear must be adaptable, reliable, and efficient.

-inuhbadnayburhoodstudyingforfinals

Anybody read Stephen King's "The Stand"?

I've always been somewhat interested in studying the survivalist movement.  There are so many scenarios that qualify as SHTF, and there are those who prepare for each scenario.  Preparedness is alot like self defense training.  It's something you do, and hope you never have to apply it.  On the other hand, some wish for the moment to prove their preparedness or training pays off.  Does anyone else out there believe that there are people out there who are not only preparing for the end of the world as we know it, but wishing it would happen so they can say to everyone, "I told you so.  Who's laughing now?"

Moondog,  We'll see who's laughing when you are banging on the door of my fallout shelter. HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!  TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!

Quoted: Seriously - the only SHTF or TEOTWAWKI scenario I worry about is a big asteroid/comet slamming into the planet.   After the dust clears, all my damn neighbors will be trying to get all of the spam I've been hoarding!

You too? HAHAHA

I used to always see this gun shop owner at gun shows, and he would preach gloom and doom to sell guns.  First, it was imminent UN invasion in the mid-90's, then, it was the big government takeover that follows Y2k.  I think there are politicians and globalists out there whose "good intentions" will lead to tyranny, I'm sure as hell that the US armed forces would agree with such policy or let foriegn troops stomp over our constitutional rights.  The same with our citizens, even the ones who aren't necessarily pro-gun.

Though the post was written in a humorous vein, I hoped to get some serious responses.

Moondog, our society is vulnerable to those who would destroy, it is much easier than building.  And those who would destroy are on the edge of acquiring weapons of incredible power.  19 fanatics and 2 airplanes shook the financial foundations of this country, though the loss of life and property was relatively small.  What happens when a nuclear bomb goes off in NYC or Washington?

The difference between paranoia and prescience is in the hands of the destroyers.

Forgot to mention - watch the national debate after May 31, when the movie "The Sum of All Fears" opens and people see the visual impact of a nuclear weapon exploding on U.S. soil.

Probably see a pickup in gun, ammo, and MRE sales.  Hopefully see some backbone develop in those who think it is OK for a truly evil person like Saddam to possess these kinds of weapons.

Well, I am glad that this was not meant to be a complete sarcasm festival, as these sometimes are considered serious matters.

I do not care about, and thus do not plan for Nuclear attack on this urban area.  I live in a building with a "Fallout Shelter", but I have noticed it's a rodent/roach infested sub-basement type thing, and is not really safe anyway.  My new apartment does not have a fallout shelter, but it does have a nice underground laundry room which can serve as a good storm shelter.

I could not afford to build a good fallout shelter until perhaps later in life.  However, I am studying architecture, and I realize there is a small market for modern homes to have a hidden "Security" room.  This is typically connected to the basement, or bedrooms, for relatively fast access.  Some rural homes in plains areas are getting these for tornado/storm purposes, and also for storing food/supplies for long terms.  I am also hoping to eventually get my hands on a book I once checked out written by the Dept of the Navy regarding the construction of bomb shelters with intricate ventilation/filtration systems, and abilities to withstand different blast forces. (only 2 copies exist of this book, and there's a LONG waiting list for it!)

The only problem is that the knowledge of structure in design needed to understand this book to its fullest potential is mind-boggling.

-inuhbadnayburhoodstudyingarchitecture

The issue for me, here in Alabama, is not protection from a nuclear attack.  I might feel differently if I lived in NYC or Washington, DC.  The issue is having the supplies on hand to deal with the hopefully temporary disruptions to civil society in the event of a nuclear or other serious WMD attack in our country.  If NYC were nuked, the financial system would cease to operate for a period of time.  That would affect the banking system here in Alabama.  My job would disappear, along with most of my savings in brokerage and bank accounts, at least for a period of time.  Most of the value of the U.S. dollar is faith in the U.S. system.  People here and, more importantly, those foreigners who keep investing money in our country, offsetting our huge trade deficits, would place a lot less trust in our currency after an event like that.  That loss of faith would cause a cascading loss of value in the dollar and spur a huge decline in economic activity, layoffs, etc.  That would cause much more damage to the country than the loss of a million New Yorkers, horrific as that would be.

The likelihood of this kind of event is very small, but the consequences for me and my family (not to mention yours) so severe that they must be considered.

Whatever it is, I hope to fire up the genny and relax while watching The Stand on the big screen and loading magazines....lol.  Actually, I realized the other day that I'm pretty much set for any scenario, other than a virulent bio weapon...and if that happens...well surely most people have seen the stand.  Oh....and The Day After.  Luckily, other than Tinker AFB I'm nowhere close to a tactically important area.

 If you live in a rural area, have about 2 to 3 weeks of food on hand, fireamrms, and either a generator or other means to function if the grid goes belly-up, you"ll be relatively OK.

Hmmm, well if sombody nukes DC I'm gonna be a crispy critter or a glow worm....

Another scenerio-

What if:

Russia has worst wheat harvest in 55 years
Labor and food riots in Poland
Soviet troops invade
Cuba and Nicaragua reach troop strength goals of 500,000
El Salvador and Honduras fall
Greens party gains control of West German Parliament
Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil
Mexico plunges into revolution
NATO dissolves
United States stands alone...

Quoted: Another scenerio- What if: Russia has worst wheat harvest in 55 years Labor and food riots in Poland Soviet troops invade Cuba and Nicaragua reach troop strength goals of 500,000 El Salvador and Honduras fall Greens party gains control of West German Parliament Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil Mexico plunges into revolution NATO dissolves United States stands alone...

AH...another fan of Red Dawn.

Quoted: ...a mysterious, toxic cloud drifts over the countryside, changing your friends and neighbors into an army of ravenous, flesh-eating zombies.

This seems to be the most likely scenario. Head to the nearest mall for some target practice. Remember, zombies love to shop.

What would be the best load for zombies? Do i want penetration or really-big-hole factor?

By Tatjana: Russia has worst wheat harvest in 55 years Labor and food riots in Poland Soviet troops invade Cuba and Nicaragua reach troop strength goals of 500,000 El Salvador and Honduras fall Greens party gains control of West German Parliament Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil Mexico plunges into revolution NATO dissolves United States stands alone...

I've heard that somehwere before....hinking.gif

Nick

Quoted: What would be the best load for zombies? Do i want penetration or really-big-hole factor?

BIG HOLES!

Quoted: What would be the best load for zombies? Do i want penetration or really-big-hole factor?

I prefer an Ar-15. Zombies are usually taken at short to medium range. A head shot with a 5.56mm round will cause massive trauma, reducing the target to a quivering lump of steaming flesh.

Step 1, collect SH_T.
step 2, Find ceiling FAN.
Step 3, Fan on full speed and in a abrupt motion dump all SH_T on FAN so it will distribute evenly.

Quoted: Another scenerio- What if: Russia has worst wheat harvest in 55 years Labor and food riots in Poland Soviet troops invade Cuba and Nicaragua reach troop strength goals of 500,000 El Salvador and Honduras fall Greens party gains control of West German Parliament Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil Mexico plunges into revolution NATO dissolves United States stands alone...

That sounds familiar.....


Red Dawn?

Quoted: Well, I am glad that this was not meant to be a complete sarcasm festival, as these sometimes are considered serious matters. I do not care about, and thus do not plan for Nuclear attack on this urban area.  I live in a building with a "Fallout Shelter", but I have noticed it's a rodent/roach infested sub-basement type thing, and is not really safe anyway.  My new apartment does not have a fallout shelter, but it does have a nice underground laundry room which can serve as a good storm shelter. I could not afford to build a good fallout shelter until perhaps later in life.  However, I am studying architecture, and I realize there is a small market for modern homes to have a hidden "Security" room.  This is typically connected to the basement, or bedrooms, for relatively fast access.  Some rural homes in plains areas are getting these for tornado/storm purposes, and also for storing food/supplies for long terms.  I am also hoping to eventually get my hands on a book I once checked out written by the Dept of the Navy regarding the construction of bomb shelters with intricate ventilation/filtration systems, and abilities to withstand different blast forces. (only 2 copies exist of this book, and there's a LONG waiting list for it!) The only problem is that the knowledge of structure in design needed to understand this book to its fullest potential is mind-boggling. -inuhbadnayburhoodstudyingarchitecture

Maybe you can give some advice here then.  I was looking at an old semi-trailer the other day (just the cargo box) and got me thinking.  If you were to coat the entire thing in spray on or roll on truck bed liner, weld the back doors shut, cut a hole in the top for a ladder entrance and a few other mods and bury it, it looks to me that this could be the ultimate in fallout shelters.  Any thoughts on this matter?  Oh yeah, a serious SHTF scenario.  Another movie, but pretty close I think, was the one where Bruce Willis enforces martial law on the city of New York.  Cant remember the name, but looked like a pretty good reality.

I believe you are talking about John Carpenter's "Escape from New York"

He also did one "Escape from Los Angeles"

Quoted: I believe you are talking about John Carpenter's "Escape from New York" He also did one "Escape from Los Angeles"

No, No, No.  That was Kurt Russell.  Escape from New York was cool, but Escape from LA sucked rocks.  Snake Blisten wasn't it.  Be a cool screen name.  In the movie I am talking about, Bruce is an Army General and he heards all the middle eastern people into a stadium in a makeshift prison, rolls tanks through New York, had a suitcase nuke in there somewhere I believe.  Great movie, wish I could remember the name.

Quoted: Quoted: Another scenerio- What if: Russia has worst wheat harvest in 55 years Labor and food riots in Poland Soviet troops invade Cuba and Nicaragua reach troop strength goals of 500,000 El Salvador and Honduras fall Greens party gains control of West German Parliament Demands withdrawal of nuclear weapons from European soil Mexico plunges into revolution NATO dissolves United States stands alone... AH...another fan of Red Dawn.

Oh I love that movie. I have it on DVD. And it's my ultimate SHTF fantasy.

OK being serious for a moment (enjoy while you can) the most likely senerios have been covered.
1) Yellow Stone Caldera cuts loose or some other major geological event. These have occured several times at least in the past and the effect would be the same has a minor to major nucear attack.
2) Major comet or asteroid strike. Depending on size of object, where it hits (land or water) and strike velocity this could be as bad as a small nuclear strike to something worse than total nuclear war with all weapons being used.
3) So called suit case bomb.
4) Old fashioned nuclear exchange. Anything from N korea to a major exchange with Russia.
5) One more addition to the list would be something totally unexpected like a form of pneumonic aids suddenly showing up.

With the exception of the LA riots, Somalia, Rowanda, Haiti, the Balkans, & 911. there has not been a SHTF scenario in over 10 years!!! Dont worry, be happy. Nothing like WW2 or our own war between the states could even happen again.