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Posted: 8/19/2006 9:31:49 AM EDT
www.odcmp.org/new_forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20505

My best guess is that within the next 2-3 months (maybe sooner) the CMP will be completely out of all collector, correct, and service grades. Field and rack will last another 2 years - maybe. It will depend on how fast the field and rack sell after the others are gone. nothing else is in the pipeline.
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 1:57:02 PM EDT
We all knew this day would come. You should have seen what was left of the CMP booth at the Reno gun show. Looked like a plague of locusts had gone through. Everything was gone...
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 1:57:51 PM EDT
What about the Korean Garands that are supposed to be coming?
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 2:24:31 PM EDT
The pickings are a bit slim at the CMP store, too. The only Garands they had for sale were Greek field and rack grades and Danish rack grade less wood. It's possible that a few of the better grades will appear as they uncrate the inventory, but the inventory will thin out unless they obtain Garands from another source (like Korea). Who knows what condition the Korean Garands will be in if they ever show up..
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 2:31:22 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 4:11:41 PM EDT

Originally Posted By dalesimpson:
What about the Korean Garands that are supposed to be coming?


Orest says they won't be coming through the CMP. Those M1's are owned by Korea. The CMP isn't an FFL and cannot import either. They get rifles from the US Army.

Frankly, I'm doubting they'll ever show up--there's been talk for years that they'll be inbound any day... Best case, we'll see a lot of Korean parts kits.

Ty
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 4:44:17 PM EDT

Originally Posted By 30Caliber:

Originally Posted By dalesimpson:
What about the Korean Garands that are supposed to be coming?


Orest says they won't be coming through the CMP. Those M1's are owned by Korea. The CMP isn't an FFL and cannot import either. They get rifles from the US Army.

Frankly, I'm doubting they'll ever show up--there's been talk for years that they'll be inbound any day... Best case, we'll see a lot of Korean parts kits.

Ty


Why wouldn't they come through the same channels as the Greeks and Danes?
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 5:05:40 PM EDT
It's my understanding that the Greek and Danish M1s were returned lend/lease rifles that were still US property while the Korean M1s were sold to the Korean military making them Korean property. I haven't kept up with the firearms legislation lately, but I thought Bush signed an Executive Order banning the re-importation of former US military arms. Orest was pretty clear in the fact that the CMP receives their rifles from the US military only. That being said, I'd love nothing more than to see as many M1s come home as possible.
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 5:08:18 PM EDT

Originally Posted By WRAM1:
It's my understanding that the Greek and Danish M1s were returned lend/lease rifles that were still US property while the Korean M1s were sold to the Korean military making them Korean property. I haven't kept up with the firearms legislation lately, but I thought Bush signed an Executive Order banning the re-importation of former US military arms. Orest was pretty clear in the fact that the CMP receives their rifles from the US military only. That being said, I'd love nothing more than to see as many M1s come home as possible.


Ahhh... I thought the Korean rifles were lend/lease like the others. That sucks. I guess I should trade an AR upper or whole rifle for a Garand now before they are gone.
Link Posted: 8/19/2006 5:19:54 PM EDT
Yeah, it looks like the $$$ I was saving for another AR will go towards another M1 instead.
Link Posted: 8/20/2006 7:10:57 AM EDT
This wasn't a fear mongering post. It was supposed to be informational. I was quoting Orest Michaels who is like the CEO of the CMP.
Link Posted: 8/20/2006 7:20:21 AM EDT

Originally Posted By The_Beer_Slayer:
there are literally TONS of garands still crated that have not been inspected in the southern depot. i don't think they are running out anytime soon

If you followed the link, the 2 year figure is a quote direct from Orest Michaels who runs the CMP. I think he has pretty good insight on available inventory and product sales rates.

Besides, a ton of Garands is literally about 200 rifles. There'd have to be a few hundred tons of rifles to stave off the inevitable.
Link Posted: 8/20/2006 7:33:10 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Southern_Raider:

Originally Posted By The_Beer_Slayer:
there are literally TONS of garands still crated that have not been inspected in the southern depot. i don't think they are running out anytime soon

If you followed the link, the 2 year figure is a quote direct from Orest Michaels who runs the CMP. I think he has pretty good insight on available inventory and product sales rates.

Besides, a ton of Garands is literally about 200 rifles. There'd have to be a few hundred tons of rifles to stave off the inevitable.



Gary Anderson is the DCM Orest works for Gary. I was told if the Army gets them we will see them.
Link Posted: 8/20/2006 5:23:47 PM EDT
Well, I guess they are out of 1903's now also. According to Orest, they've got some left in stock, but those will probably be just enough to fill the back orders...

Man, I've got to get up to the North Store before there's nothing left to get...
Link Posted: 8/20/2006 7:20:23 PM EDT
pickings were slim at the south store last month... there were a FEW corrects on the shelf, but not many, and the rackers and fields were well picked over... most of the barrels were shot out
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 11:35:59 AM EDT
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 2:45:47 PM EDT
The CMP needs to slash their 8 rifles per year limit to 1 or 2 per year. Yes it would suck for some bona fide collectors, but it would also cut down on people buying their 8 per year and selling them at gun shows for twice what they paid. I'm all for free markets, but the CMP is NOT a wholesaler.
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 2:48:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By whoanelly:
The CMP needs to slash their 8 rifles per year limit to 1 or 2 per year. Yes it would suck for some bona fide collectors, but it would also cut down on people buying their 8 per year and selling them at gun shows for twice what they paid. I'm all for free markets, but the CMP is NOT a wholesaler.


I couldn't agree more. I think that 2 per year would be more than fair.
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 2:53:45 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 3:07:50 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/21/2006 3:11:23 PM EDT by 30Caliber]

Originally Posted By The_Beer_Slayer:
my real question is how are they going to fund things when they finally do run out.


They certainly wouldn't be able to do that with a 2 rifle per year limit. The sooner they sell out, the more money they'll have saved in the coffers to fund the matches.

It's a pretty simple equation:
Sales - Operating costs

If you minimize sales and maximize operating costs (by dragging out the rifle sales program), they will fail to meet the ultimate objective which is to generate enough money to fund the shooting programs indefinitely. It sucks, but that's the way it has to be now that the CMP is a self-sustaining corporation and not the gov't subsidized DOD program that the DCM was.

If I had my way, the only M1 you could order from the CMP would be Service Grade and you'd be allowed one per lifetime. It would show up at your door (no North/South store), but you could also buy one a year at the National Matches.

Ty
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 3:16:29 PM EDT
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 3:17:37 PM EDT
dont forget ammo sales. i'm not sure about the margins they get on that, but they have LOTS of ammo. i've heard 50million+ rounds of the greek ammo, on top of the lake city and federal they have
Link Posted: 8/21/2006 3:32:20 PM EDT
The real purpose of the CMP is not to sell surplus rifles to civilians, it's to assist marksmanship programs. Selling the rifles was just one way to get the money they needed for their efforts. Hopefully they have other plans (not rifle sales) for funding once the Garands are all gone, since anything newer gets reused or scrapped.

I think the CMP is probably worried about the possible outcome of the '06 and '08 elections, especially considering the statement that the supply should last about "2 years". If certain anti-gun politicians get enough power, they would love to shut down a program selling military battle rifles to civilians. I'm sure the goal is to have lots of cash and no rifles left when the CMP is finally shut down. Don't forget what happened to half a million M14s during the Clinton years.
Link Posted: 8/22/2006 5:31:42 AM EDT
Link Posted: 8/22/2006 5:56:06 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 8/22/2006 6:02:34 AM EDT by Ralph]
Looking back over the last year we see that all of the '03A3's are gone, recently all the '03's are also gone, Collector, Correct, and Service grades are in very short supply and probably not be available for new orders in the very near future. In the last 4 years i've seen a steady decline of what was available at the North store. I remember a buddy of mine and myself going in there 3 years ago, and him picking up a $400 rack grade that had a MW of 1and a TE of 2, orginial lockbars excellent stock, handguards. rebuilt at Agusta sometime in '45. people buying Danish rifles with Dane barrels on then that were almost new and sooo accurate, and all that wonderful Dane ammo. Those days are gone...While I do believe they (CMP) have crates and crates full of M1's left, I also believe that most are rack or field grades at best, and let's not forget there will probably be quite a few that will only be good for parts. What few collector,correct, and service grades they do find will probably be culled out to fill existing orders. So, if you want a Service grade get in line now, while they are still taking orders for them. As soon as people figure out that this is it, the rack and field grades will go fast, It's been fun, getting M1's delivered right to your door. I got 2 and a nice'03 and nicer'03A3 which I picked off the rack at the North store. But I do believe the gig is about up, and if a Dem gets in in '08 you can bet your ass it will be. So, all you fencesitters out there get off your asses and get a M1 while you can, Once the CMP is either sold out or banned from selling rifles, you ain't gonna like the prices at the gunshows.....
Link Posted: 8/22/2006 2:40:27 PM EDT

Originally Posted By whoanelly:
The CMP needs to slash their 8 rifles per year limit to 1 or 2 per year. Yes it would suck for some bona fide collectors, but it would also cut down on people buying their 8 per year and selling them at gun shows for twice what they paid. I'm all for free markets, but the CMP is NOT a wholesaler.


It was RAISED to 12 a year a few months ago.
Link Posted: 8/22/2006 5:19:02 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Garand06:

Originally Posted By whoanelly:
The CMP needs to slash their 8 rifles per year limit to 1 or 2 per year. Yes it would suck for some bona fide collectors, but it would also cut down on people buying their 8 per year and selling them at gun shows for twice what they paid. I'm all for free markets, but the CMP is NOT a wholesaler.


It was RAISED to 12 a year a few months ago.


(Shrug) If that's what it takes for the CMP to make more money then good for them. We all know what's going on with the majority of these mass purchases, and I just think that pimping CMP Garands at gun shows and elsewhere is...well...kind of whorish...just my .02
Link Posted: 8/23/2006 7:58:39 AM EDT
I would rather have the CMP selling rifles 12 to a person than have those same rifles end up in Captain Crunch, and that is exactly what will happen if things go wrong politically. The only people who are moaning about the more than once a lifetime sales are the guys who aren't buying! Me, I've got PILES of them, a better investment by far than the stock market over the last 5 years!
Link Posted: 8/24/2006 7:13:58 AM EDT
+1!!
Link Posted: 8/24/2006 10:34:30 AM EDT
Sir, while I was at Camp Perry earlier this month, one of my hut mates purchased ten garands and an '03. He rebuilds them to make them "correct" to his way of thinking, and sells what's left over. He also believes they are a better investment than the stock market, the rate of return is about double the investment. IMHO, in his case that's really only a rationalization, he seldom sells anything and he has a lot of garands in his home, I guestimate well over thirty.

I realize the CMP "north" store stocks up on rifles specially for the National Matches but when I got there at the begining of CMP HP week the number of available rifles in fair condition was pretty low. I've read some of the comments posted by Orest Michaels and heard similar comments from many others. My bet is that CMP will be out of decent rifles within two years. FWIW, I'm not really a garand collector, except for my JCG match rifle, the other four haven't seen daylight since I don't remember when. JMHO, 7zero1.
Link Posted: 8/25/2006 4:55:55 AM EDT
I think barring a reimport of guns from somewhere that the CMP will be out of Garands in the next two years. They still have quite a few but demand is strong too and the new allowances are running them out quickly. Another thing you have to keep in mind is storage issues. When I went to Anniston and uncrated rifles the three days I was there I saw at least one crate that had suffered water damage, the rifles inside were reduced to nearly scrap. You have to remember that most of these guns have been in storage for AT LEAST 35 years, some much longer.

The whole better investment thing is kinda funny. It presupposes that I would actually SELL any of my guns. Maybe some day when I can no longer see and pee in a bag but that's a long way off. I have two gunsafes dedicated just to Garands and they aren't going anywhere anytime soon!
Link Posted: 8/25/2006 5:54:08 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Will:
I have two gunsafes dedicated just to Garands and they aren't going anywhere anytime soon!


God Bless Texas!
Link Posted: 8/25/2006 10:02:24 AM EDT
Well, it's like this. Back in the 1970's and 80's before the CMP was formed good Garands-mixmasters but funcitonal were $700-800. That was before 25 years of inflation.

Why would you not buy them for $400 now? By the truckload? Once CMP runs out of guns I can assure you the price will rise WAY UP. Even now guys are buying them for $400 and selling for $650-700. When the supply runs out, expect "papered cmp" quality guns to run twice that, I am. So, with the market being as crappy as it has for the last five years I have bought a full allotment of guns every year. I order two or three times a year as finances allow until I hit the max number for that year. Again, way better than stock....I can SHOOT these and the coolness factor is pretty high too!
Link Posted: 8/26/2006 10:35:25 AM EDT
There are literally several million Garands in the US. Compare that with about 50,000 HK91s, which are not even considered "rare". There is no shortage of Garands, even if when the CMP runs dry. However, the supply is fixed and demand will set the price. Thus the real question is, what will the demand be?

The CMP in itself may have been stimulating demand with the ability to procure Garands direct to your door at a reasonable price. To be honest, that's the only reason I bought mine. This novelty and ease of purchase in itself has spurred the average non-collector to buy them.

When this door is closed, you may find that the interest in, and demand for, Garands will dip a bit. Yes, you'll make some money, but don't plan on retiring on the profits. If that logic was true, the owners of NIB HK91s would be getting quite a bit more than they do.
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