Rifleman308,
Unfortunately, I agree with much of what you said. While I think there are enough solidly pro-gun votes in the House make it VERY difficult to pass a renewal, I'm not taking it to the bank. Much can happen between now and then, including, as you mention, more high profile shooting incidents involving AWs.
I'm still undecided as to how much damage the DC "sniper" incidents caused us. Yes, those animals killed quite a few people, and yes, they used an AR-15. But almost anybody can be made to realize that the type of rifle used was not a factor (unless you are to illustrate that those victims who lived most likely would not have if they had been hit with a more powerful rifle). On the other hand, a simple TV ad that shows imagery of military-style guns and the DC shootings crime scenes, with a voice-over saying something like "Republicans in Congress want to put high-powered military assault rifles, like the one the DC snipers used, back on our streets and into the hands of criminals... blah blah blah" would be a very effective scare tactic.
One thing to note, despite the tremendous negative publicity from those shootings, aside from predictable press releases from VPC and Brady Bunch, there has been very little said about the ban. Think about that... wouldn't you expect to hear reflexive demands by opportunistic gun grabbing politicians calling for a renewal NOW (while the iron is presumably hot)?
So, in short, while we cannot afford to rest on this issue, the battle is clearly ours to lose. Of course, when your football team is the New Orleans Saints, this doesn't mean much. [;)]
--Mike