The US has been fighting the war on terror for a few years now and there were reports that there might be ammo shortages.  From what I've seen, prices and supply have not really been affected to any degree, especially availability.

XM193, Q3131A, and even the occasional case of Q3131 is still readily available at the $89 to $95 price range per 500, if you look around.

With this in mind,

1. Is there really an ammo shortage?

2. If there will be a shortage in the future, will it be a relatively temporary shortage or one that will run the duration of the war?

3. Given that we don't have a crystal ball, when should we expect the current supply of XM193 or Q3131A to dry out?

The Army is no longer procuring M193 beyond FY2005 Link (see page 13 of the document).  M855 is not affected - obviously.  I am not sure about the other Services.  Eventually, all M16/M16A1s should be out of the Services' inventories, eliminating the need for M193 ammo.

I read an article the other day about the US Government purchasing something like 6 billion rounds or ammunition!
My thought is, as long as we are fighting a war, prices and availibility will be tough.

The other factor is metal and energy prices.  This is having an ill effect on price as well.

No.

no

Yes

Look at the Ammo price thread and most are OOS.  Bass Pro shops usually has cases of Q3131a for their fall sale and I don't believe any of their stores had any to sell.

no, you can still get it so who cares?  When no one has it, then I'll have to call shortage.

Quoted: I read an article the other day about the US Government purchasing something like 6 billion rounds of ammunition!

Maybe -- if you count everything the military buys from .22 cartridges to mortar rounds to artillery projectiles and grenades.  However, the Government is producing about 1.2-1.5 billion small caliber cartridges (5.56mm, 7.62mm and .50 cal) per year.

Metal prices?  Yea, copper prices are going up!

The only ammo shortage I care about is when the mag is empty.  Stock enough parts so you can load your own and you won't care about so call shortages.

To my knowledge, and I am by no means an expert on ammunition, small arms ammo is produced in Israel for the war effort. That way, they can save quite a bit on shipping as you can imagine. So perhaps they are having a problem with keeping demand?

Quoted: To my knowledge, and I am by no means an expert on ammunition, small arms ammo is produced in Israel for the war effort. That way, they can save quite a bit on shipping as you can imagine. So perhaps they are having a problem with keeping demand?

True to his namesake...

so if they are not procuring M193, what will they be using in place of it?

Quoted: so if they are not procuring M193, what will they be using in place of it?

Ah, 62 gr ammo that is current issue?

Quoted: Quoted: To my knowledge, and I am by no means an expert on ammunition, small arms ammo is produced in Israel for the war effort. That way, they can save quite a bit on shipping as you can imagine. So perhaps they are having a problem with keeping demand? True to his namesake...

Indeed.  That assertion wasn't even in the realm of reality.

There's a gas shortage too.....

Question, if the .mil is only going to produce 193 through 2005 and no longer, will Federal still produce XM193 at all?

I know the .mil is by far the biggest user but I shudder to think it will go the way of the Dodo bird...

(I like 193 for plinking and my SHTF stock, but I have a decent stock of heavier weight loads as well)

Quoted: Question, if the .mil is only going to produce 193 through 2005 and no longer, will Federal still produce XM193 at all? I know the .mil is by far the biggest user but I shudder to think it will go the way of the Dodo bird... (I like 193 for plinking and my SHTF stock, but I have a decent stock of heavier weight loads as well)

The Army is not buying M193 beyond FY05.  That is not to say the other Services aren't buying it in FY06 and beyond.

IF the DoD finally decided it no longer needed M193 ammunition (all M16/M16A1 rifles finally out of their inventories), Federal would have to analyze a business case to determine if it is in their best interest (sufficient profit) to make mil-spec M193 ammunition commercially.  Remember, they would have to tool their facilities for this; they (meaning ATK, Federal's parent) cannot use Lake City to make commercial ammunition.

Quoted: Quoted: Question, if the .mil is only going to produce 193 through 2005 and no longer, will Federal still produce XM193 at all? I know the .mil is by far the biggest user but I shudder to think it will go the way of the Dodo bird... (I like 193 for plinking and my SHTF stock, but I have a decent stock of heavier weight loads as well) The Army is not buying M193 beyond FY05.  That is not to say the other Services aren't buying it in FY06 and beyond. IF the DoD finally decided it no longer needed M193 ammunition (all M16/M16A1 rifles finally out of their inventories), Federal would have to analyze a business case to determine if it is in their best interest (sufficient profit) to make mil-spec M193 ammunition commercially.  Remember, they would have to tool their facilities for this; they (meaning ATK, Federal's parent) cannot use Lake City to make commercial ammunition.

Which means no.

No ammo shortages here

Quoted: Quoted: Question, if the .mil is only going to produce 193 through 2005 and no longer, will Federal still produce XM193 at all? I know the .mil is by far the biggest user but I shudder to think it will go the way of the Dodo bird... (I like 193 for plinking and my SHTF stock, but I have a decent stock of heavier weight loads as well) The Army is not buying M193 beyond FY05.  That is not to say the other Services aren't buying it in FY06 and beyond. IF the DoD finally decided it no longer needed M193 ammunition (all M16/M16A1 rifles finally out of their inventories), Federal would have to analyze a business case to determine if it is in their best interest (sufficient profit) to make mil-spec M193 ammunition commercially.  Remember, they would have to tool their facilities for this; they (meaning ATK, Federal's parent) cannot use Lake City to make commercial ammunition.

K, thanks. I missed the reference in your first post to it just being the Army. Thanks for the info.

price for xm193 just went up again at wideners for federal. im going to get some IMI surplus to shoot at the range while they still have it.

Yes.

While the hobbyist who is buying less than 5K of ammo (particularly in the 1-2K range) can still find lots of offerings in 5.56mm or .223 Remington, anyone making bigger purchases will have a hard time finidng availability and face significantly increased costs.

This started not long after 9-11 and has just gotten worse. The "spin-off" effects are out there, too. Because Winchester-Olin and Federal/Alliant/ATK both have either major military ammunition contracts or supplemental contracts, they satisfy those obligations first, which also cuts into there production of other ammunition.

Q3131A/XM193 is a good example. When Winchester had the contract to run Lake City (which Federal has now), when they satisied their military requirements for any given month, any extra production at the facility was ammo they could sell on the civilian market Military requirements, both operational and training, have increased so much that there is no EXTRA ammo being produced, except for stuff that doesn't pass QC checks (the infamous "PD" stuff). Additionally, these companies "civilian" ammo production is increasingly diverted to filling military contracts. Lead time on Winchester handgun duty ammo used to be about 30-60 days, more in an emergency. Now it is 4-6 months, with no real exceptions, because they don't make it as often becasue they are making MORE 5.56mm (I know this because we probably buy 50K a quarter). We have been trying to buy large lots of Q3131A for over a year now, and it just isn't available, particularly since all of our purchases have to benchmarked against the state contract (which lists non-FET Q3131A at about $130/1000) and the low bid on contract has not honored any POs for Q3131A for the last year. Duty 5.56mm (if one wants fancy stuff) has about a 6 month lead time. While you personally can walk into Sportman's Warehouse or Cabela's (or go to an online seller) and buy 100 or 200 rounds with no trouble, try buying 25K, drop-shipped from the manufacturer. You are going to wait a while. You are NEVER going to get a big order of Q3131A or XM193. We have actually gone to buying from the military, and our lead time is still a couple months.

I believe I read in defense review (?) that the DoD has contracted IMI for 50-70 million rounds per month for GWOT in theatre. I'll try to find the article.

Quoted: I believe I read in defense review (?) that the DoD has contracted IMI for 50-70 million rounds per month for GWOT in theatre. I'll try to find the article.

IMI received a contract in December 2003 for 70 million 5.56mm rounds, with deliveries probably spread out over a 12 month period.  Winchester received a duplicate contract, too.

Quoted: When Winchester had the contract to run Lake City (which Federal has now)....

Federal does not have the contract to run Lake City; Alliant Techsystems, Inc., has that contract.  ATK is the parent corporation of Federal Cartridge Company.

We have actually gone to buying from the military, and our lead time is still a couple months.

Interesting.  Through what contractual mechanism do you buy from the military?