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Posted: 9/4/2008 4:02:21 PM EDT
Commodity are crashing and I suspect that the dealers that are holding at higher prices will unload or get hurt.

Can you say deflationary spiral.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:08:31 PM EDT
commodities going down is only temporary, they will rebound fast in fall. The dollar is too weak and we are in too much debt for it to sustain the level it is at.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:10:49 PM EDT

Originally Posted By hyrepower:
commodities going down is only temporary, they will rebound fast in fall. The dollar is too weak and we are in too much debt for it to sustain the level it is at.


This

The long term value of paper currency is ZERO.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:12:04 PM EDT
Buy it cheap and stack it deep.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:18:29 PM EDT

Originally Posted By hyrepower:
commodities going down is only temporary



Can we all bank on that and have you looked at the dollar lately?
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:22:20 PM EDT
I'd watch out for the people who sell ammo coming and telling us how ammo can't come down.  

-X
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:25:38 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Black-X:
I'd watch out for the people who sell ammo coming and telling us how ammo can't come down.  

-X



Thats the one's that will get stuck holding.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:35:35 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 4:43:48 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Bryan_Aim:

Originally Posted By Black-X:
I'd watch out for the people who sell ammo coming and telling us how ammo can't come down.  

-X


i hope your right, its better for you AND ME if it does.   But i doubt it.  



What are you talking about better for you? Yall take all my money anyway no matter what things are going for!



Speaking of that I need to order a lower from you tomorrow.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:00:25 PM EDT
The hole inflationary rise of commodities was pushed by Hedge funds, when false demand unwinds as proof by oil collapsing the market place contracts. The holders at higher prices always cry prices will not fall until the tears dry and reality becomes apparent.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:10:30 PM EDT
Given this is my first post, its obvious I haven't been shooting or following ammo prices long enough to fully understand what led to recent ammo price increases.  Nevertheless, its seems reasonable to assume that commodity price strength and USD weakness played some role in rising ammo prices.  Considering the recent pullback in commodity prices and USD strength, its certainly possible that ammo prices might reverse course.

Along with everyone else, I'm certainly hoping they do.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:16:47 PM EDT
Someone posted a graph or something on how even with the rise in commodities that that still did not make up for the 300% + rise in ammo costs.  

There are other factors here, I just wish I knew what all of them were.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:30:20 PM EDT

Originally Posted By yekimak:
 

There are other factors here, I just wish I knew what all of them were.



The one's yelling Obama at guns shows and shops, it made me sick to see and hear the profiteering scheme's.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:30:25 PM EDT
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:40:58 PM EDT
China and India have been huge commodity vacuums, as they try to raise their standards of living.  Increased manufacturing to meet domestic and export markets has lead to a rapid rise in consumption. Now, if those markets start to falter, the commodity down turn will be a longer term thing.  When you add 2 billion+ consumers, stuff gets more scarce.

Semper Fi
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:43:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/4/2008 5:47:21 PM EDT by CVO]

Originally Posted By Bryan_Aim:
demand+falling doller+material prices+ shipping costs=where we are today


i sell more product when ammo is cheaper, right now 50% of shooters are not buying ammo.    



Deflation is apparent in the overall world economy, its just matter of spiral time. The average consumer is tapped out and just trying to make ends meet. Manufacturers are losing pricing power due to lack of demand and purchasing habits are changing.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:47:26 PM EDT
I don't know a damn thing about all the jibba jabba you folks are saying.

But I do understand the thread title.

And I hope you're right.

Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:47:50 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Bryan_Aim:
demand+falling doller+material prices+ shipping costs=where we are today


i sell more product when ammo is cheaper, right now 50% of shooters are not buying ammo.    


A lot of people are getting into reloading.  Maybe you guys should sell components so I can start buying from you all again.    

-X
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:53:06 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Backstop:
I don't know a damn thing about all the jibba jabba you folks are saying.

But I do understand the thread title.

And I hope you're right.




Ammo equals SUV pricing.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:56:25 PM EDT

Originally Posted By CVO:

Originally Posted By Backstop:
I don't know a damn thing about all the jibba jabba you folks are saying.

But I do understand the thread title.

And I hope you're right.




Ammo equals SUV pricing.


Thank you, thank you.

Link Posted: 9/4/2008 5:58:32 PM EDT

Originally Posted By yekimak:
Someone posted a graph or something on how even with the rise in commodities that that still did not make up for the 300% + rise in ammo costs.  

There are other factors here, I just wish I knew what all of them were.


What I think happened with .223 was this:  We used to buy a box of XM193 or Q-loads for three bucks.  This was because when the factories are making billions for the government, running off another few hundred million on the same assembly line costs very litte.  Ammo companies in a sense didn't really know what that stuff was worth, i.e. what we'd be willing to pay for it.  All ammo has gone up;  .45 hydra shocks have gone up 30% or so in the last couple of years, but 193 has at least tripled.  Ammo companies are finding out that shooters will pay more than $3 for that box of 20 rounds.  If commodity prices fall, other types of ammo will fall with them;  but I think 193 was always priced too low and I don't think it'll ever be three bucks again.

I'm reloading now anyway.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 6:21:21 PM EDT
Why do I think ammo prices will go down?

1) As the dollar goes up, commodity prices go down.

2) As American troops withdraw from Iraq, 5.56mm ammo consumption will go down.
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 6:23:11 PM EDT
Must be a day that ends in 'Y' - another 'ammo prices are going down' thread.... geez...  just click your heels together and say 'there's no place like home'
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 7:01:09 PM EDT
An interesting read on the dollar, written in 2005.

Will You Survive The Coming Financial Crash?
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 7:04:00 PM EDT

Originally Posted By SS109:
Why do I think ammo prices will go down?

1) As the dollar goes up, commodity prices go down.  Any smoke and mirrors showing the FRN going up is just that.  You CANNOT have a sound/strong 'dollar' when inflation(devaluing of the dollar) abounds, bailouts abound, we have $50-70 TRILLION in unfunded obligations, and we are owned by foreign countries.

2) As American troops withdraw from Iraq, 5.56mm ammo consumption will go down.  12+ PERMANENT military bases and BILLIONS made by the military-industrial-congressional-think tank complex.  This won't happen--follow the money.


Link Posted: 9/4/2008 7:06:58 PM EDT
Whatever the cause(s) of inflated ammo prices (esp. 223) I don't see the prices falling ever again. Regardless of the state of the dollar, supply and demand, or competetive importers the precedence has been set... just as it was with gas/oil prices years ago- the suppliers discovered that we consumers would continue to pay whatever price they asked for and boldly continued to enlarge their profit margin despite downturns in the economy. Remember when gas was actually resonable? Now that the oil companies know that they can price their product at $2.50 p/gal, $3.00 p/gal, $4.00 p/gal and make the highest profits of their history does anyone here actually think we'll ever see gasoline at reasonable prices again?

Ditto for our precious ammo. All the ammo manufacturers have seen that they can tripple prices inside of a year's time and still sell at record-setting levels... why lower prices? Explain why there's only $.03 - $.04 difference between American made M193 and Serbian made M193? We can discuss all the social, political, financial variables that play into it ad naseum; the bottom line is and always will be greed!
Link Posted: 9/4/2008 7:18:54 PM EDT

Originally Posted By Bryan_Aim:
demand+falling doller+material prices+ shipping costs=where we are today


i sell more product when ammo is cheaper, right now 50% of shooters are not buying ammo.    


Wasn't saying it was the dealers.  Margins in the industry are so thin that I know it has to be a labor of love for most of you guys.  I know i am not buying tons of ammo and sitting on what I have.  I am kicking myself for not buying the ammo I was balking at a year ago.
Link Posted: 9/5/2008 4:53:39 AM EDT
Link Posted: 9/5/2008 7:35:43 AM EDT
What gets me is I am not seeing a shortage of ammo at the shops.

I'm seeing plenty
Link Posted: 9/5/2008 7:37:13 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 9/5/2008 7:37:13 AM EDT by Zhukov]
Dupe. http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=3&f=16&t=313837
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