In many cases, I'd agree with you. Hitting man-sized objects on the move off-hand isn't easy, especially if you're winded or have been in an uncomfortable position for a long time. That's the closest I've been to real combat, and didn't have the worry of people shooting back at me, and I still didn't have a real easy time (though it's much easier with optics!). I fully understand, even with my limited real-world experience, what you're saying.
On the other hand, folks like Dr. Roberts have access to medical files from injured US troops as well as Iraqis that have been treated by US personel. Examination of the wounds show bullets that didn't fragment at range, and correspond to the reports from the soldiers' and Marines' reports. Clearly, the issue is real, with real combat data matching the results anticipated by the lab testing.
You know all too well that the bulk of rifle-fighting occurs at ranges within 100m. M855 fired from the 20" M16 and M249 will fragment out to that range most of the time. The M4 can't say the same thing, with fragmentation ranges as short as 10m with some lots of M855 (due to differences in bullet construction). More typically, the range is 40-50m. That would be enough to make me real comfortable carrying that combo, as an AK is plenty deadly at those ranges, and I'd rather not get killed if I can avoid it. The M4 is fine; we just need to issue appropriate ammo to go with it.
-Troy