Ammo Price Trends (Historical Charts) ~ updated 3/14/2008

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Ammo Price Trends (Historical Charts) ~ updated 3/14/2008 (Page 1 of 2)

Posted: 1/3/2008 9:32:30 AM EDT

Here are the charts of Ammo prices for 1000 rounds of XM193, Q3131 & XM855PD vs USD$ and Gold since July, 2004.

Ammo price data compiled from Brillo's Ammo Price List as average of all vendors pricing in stock*.

* All vendors were out of stock for an extended period and the original Ammo Price Trends thread was (irrevocably) archived. Pricing for vendors with status = "Out of Stock" is still excluded (as it would skew the data) but I've closed the data gaps on these to show unbroken trend lines.

Posted: 1/3/2008 9:37:17 AM EDT

[#1]

Posted: 1/3/2008 10:30:59 AM EDT

[#2]

That's curve is inverse to my personal stupidity index. I should have bought it and stacked it deep when I could afford it.

Posted: 1/3/2008 10:33:21 AM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:
That's curve is inverse to my personal stupidity index. I should have bought it and stacked it deep when I could afford it.

+1

I remember my dealer having PALLETS of 855PD and XM193 back in late 04, for 230 out the door I believe. I should sold my dog/truck/left nut/house and bought every round he had.

Posted: 1/3/2008 12:15:33 PM EDT

[#4]

Thanks for doing this, even though it's painful.

Posted: 1/3/2008 12:26:54 PM EDT

[#5]

Interesting. Thanks.

Posted: 1/3/2008 12:27:51 PM EDT

[#6]

The charts show that ammo has not increased in price as much as we think, seems to be more a matter that the US Dollar has crashed.

Gold is priced in US $, and it's price rises to reflect the World value relative to the falling US Dollar (to a large extent). A chart of ammo price in Euros, Aus $ and Can $ would be interesting - any takers ?

Posted: 1/3/2008 2:46:59 PM EDT

[#7]

I got into this wayyyy too late.

Posted: 1/3/2008 3:56:49 PM EDT

[#8]

height=8

Quoted:
I got into this wayyyy too late.

me too!I bought my first ar in oct '07.

Posted: 1/3/2008 5:04:03 PM EDT

[#9]

Thanks for the charts, but this makes me want to

Posted: 1/3/2008 5:18:35 PM EDT

[#10]

Isn't the bright side (if there is one) that availability seems to be improving.

I'm seeing 5.56 and 7.62 at dealers and gun shows vs. 6 to 9 months ago.

DT

Posted: 1/3/2008 6:36:02 PM EDT

[#11]

Nice graphs, especially the ammo priced in gold.

Totally off topic. Another market that is interesting to look at priced in gold, is real estate...I offer:

Posted: 1/3/2008 9:03:21 PM EDT

[#12]

I wonder if it will EVER come down...

Posted: 1/4/2008 2:47:14 AM EDT

[#13]

I bought 1K of the green tipped shit for $480.00......

I could not sit for over a week after that...

Posted: 1/4/2008 3:29:36 AM EDT

[#14]

Premise 1: As long as the dollar trades inversely to gold, the dollar is doomed.

Premise 2: The dollar does trade inversely to gold.

Conclusion: The dollar is doomed!

Got gold? Got ammo?

www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3248.html

Posted: 1/5/2008 11:59:47 AM EDT

[#15]

Glad everyone likes the charts - even if they may induce nausea.

Apologies again for letting the previous thread die. I'll keep better tabs/updates on this one.

Now for some more perspective.

From 1/06-1/08:
XM193 increased in price by ~105%
Q3131 increased by ~116%
XM855PD by ~81%

So this is an average of 40%-58% increase per year for the last two years. If this rate continues we'll see prices around this range:

1/2009:
XM193 = $604-$681
Q3131 = $669-$752
XM855PD = $506-$569

1/2010:
XM193 = $696-$1000
Q3131 = $771-$1104
XM855PD = $583-$835

$1/rd by 2010?

If gold continues to track same trend the gold/ammo ratio in '09-'10 (& onward?) will be essentially the same as now, as it was 1/04.

Posted: 1/5/2008 12:22:45 PM EDT

[#16]

I'm glad I taught myself how to reload!

Posted: 1/5/2008 12:49:00 PM EDT

[#17]

Looks like a damn solar stock taking off with oil at $100 a barrel.

Posted: 1/5/2008 8:37:16 PM EDT

[#18]

The ammo v. gold chart suggests that a lot of the price increase apparent in the first chart is attributable to dollar weakness... but not all. Gold has been increasing v. most currencies in the last year, I think, and ammo has been appreciating v. gold.

The dollar doesn't look like it's going to be strengthening much this year, so ammo probably isn't going to be dropping in price much, either.

Posted: 1/6/2008 2:54:47 AM EDT

[#19]

Thanks Paje for the effort.

These trends are really an eye opener.

It would be interesting to see how the .223 stacks up price wise with say a few other common rounds to see if the price increases are equally across the board or are just related more specifically to the .223.

Posted: 1/6/2008 7:40:10 AM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:
I'm glad I taught myself how to reload!

And stocked up on components!!

Posted: 1/6/2008 7:48:30 AM EDT

[#21]

I bought the vast percentage of my ammo from late 03 thru the beginning of 06. Any past that point was strictly to restock what I had shot or because I found a good deal.

I'm a frikkin genious.

Posted: 1/6/2008 8:01:05 AM EDT

[#22]

I haven't shot my AR in months because I don't want to burn through what little ammo I have sitting around.

This sucks.

Posted: 1/6/2008 8:09:33 AM EDT

[#23]

I'm going to reduce all of you to tears:

When I was stationed at Camp Lejuene around 1980, I was doing a land navigation exercise and stumbled across a helicopter sling-load of ammo. Cases upon cases. It had been there for at least a year or two, there were some small saplings growing through it. The cans were a bit rusty outside, but the ammo inside was perfect. I marked the location on my map, planning to do my patriotic duty by policing up the environmentally harmful eyesore. But life happened, and I never went back there.

Posted: 1/6/2008 9:45:43 AM EDT

[#24]

Maybe someone has some concrete pricing data to support/refute this.......but it seems to me that prices on certain calibers have shot up markedly compared to others. Granted some are going to be more popular and so possibly supply contracts will be filled and renewed quicker to market rates than others. But it seems disportionate that .223 has doubled in the last couple years, but .30-06 ammo has remained nearly the same even though there is obviously much more raw materials used in making a round of '06. 3 to 4 times as much lead, and I'm guessing here, but I guess about 3 times the powder and brass as well. I'm basing this assumption based on the price of a box of Remington UMC 55gr at $8 box and Remington power-lokd '06 for $13 a box currently.

Posted: 1/6/2008 11:19:16 AM EDT

[#25]

Other ammo trends: I'm curious about that myself (for analytical reasons). Other than being an enthusiastic customer (~25K rds) up to May '06, I'm not involved in the ammo industry at all. I was only able to compile and generate the above charts by utilizing the data that Brillo has persistently collected over the years.

It would seem there are quite a few ammo vendors in the arfcom community. Surely some of them would have kept records of retail pricing history? If anyone is able to acquire their data I would offer to chart it up here.

Regards,
Paje

Posted: 1/6/2008 2:53:15 PM EDT

[#26]

My stash is my stash, when I shoot it is all handloads. BUT in April 07 it cost me 11 cents a round for 5.56, in June 14ish in Sept 16.1. Reloading will save some, but it ain't staying the same either.

Posted: 1/7/2008 1:13:22 AM EDT

[#27]

height=8

Quoted:
Maybe someone has some concrete pricing data to support/refute this.......but it seems to me that prices on certain calibers have shot up markedly compared to others. Granted some are going to be more popular and so possibly supply contracts will be filled and renewed quicker to market rates than others. But it seems disportionate that .223 has doubled in the last couple years, but .30-06 ammo has remained nearly the same even though there is obviously much more raw materials used in making a round of '06. 3 to 4 times as much lead, and I'm guessing here, but I guess about 3 times the powder and brass as well. I'm basing this assumption based on the price of a box of Remington UMC 55gr at $8 box and Remington power-lokd '06 for $13 a box currently.

I don't have a trend chart, but I've seen the same thing. In the mid '90s .30-30 basic loads (150 or 170 gr SP) were going for about $7.99/20; today they are $12.99/20. That's a 63% increase in price over a long interval when the CPI went up 36%. But I would be surprised if demand has grown much for .30-30 in the last 13 years, while there's no doubt the demand for .223/5.56 is higher.

Posted: 1/7/2008 5:39:03 AM EDT

[#28]

Just profiteers cashing in on the derth of supply and the increase in demand, basic Kensian Economics.

Posted: 1/7/2008 10:06:47 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:
I'm going to reduce all of you to tears:

When I was stationed at Camp Lejuene around 1980, I was doing a land navigation exercise and stumbled across a helicopter sling-load of ammo. Cases upon cases. It had been there for at least a year or two, there were some small saplings growing through it. The cans were a bit rusty outside, but the ammo inside was perfect. I marked the location on my map, planning to do my patriotic duty by policing up the environmentally harmful eyesore. But life happened, and I never went back there.

DANG YOU . . . DANG YOU ALL TO HECK !!!!!!

Posted: 1/7/2008 3:35:40 PM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Maybe someone has some concrete pricing data to support/refute this.......but it seems to me that prices on certain calibers have shot up markedly compared to others. Granted some are going to be more popular and so possibly supply contracts will be filled and renewed quicker to market rates than others. But it seems disportionate that .223 has doubled in the last couple years, but .30-06 ammo has remained nearly the same even though there is obviously much more raw materials used in making a round of '06. 3 to 4 times as much lead, and I'm guessing here, but I guess about 3 times the powder and brass as well. I'm basing this assumption based on the price of a box of Remington UMC 55gr at $8 box and Remington power-lokd '06 for $13 a box currently.

That's because of a couple of things:

- Military and LEO demand has virtually ZERO direct effect on the price of .30-06 ammo. No one uses it for a duty load in any significant quantity.

- Most of the ammo you are buying today was produced over the last 5 years, not the last 5 days. Demand for "hunting" calibers is quite stable, and not very big volume-wise, so manufacturers maximize their investment in loading machines by running 3-5 years worth of one load (over a month or two of production), then re-setting up that machine for another load, etc. That ammo is put into storage and sent out to fill orders over the next 3-5 years, before that load gets another production run. This is why civilian ammo isn't production-dated. It also means that spikes in raw materials pricing have a smaller, more gradual effect on these loads.

- Raw materials and energy prices, while having certainly gone up and certainly having SOME effect on ammo cost, are a much smaller factor than most people suppose.

-Troy

Posted: 1/11/2008 10:28:08 AM EDT

[#31]

BoTW (bump o'the week).

Charts updated.

Gold at all time (nominal) high. Closes at $895 today.

Posted: 1/27/2008 2:29:58 PM EDT

[#32]

BoTW

Charts updated.

Posted: 2/9/2008 11:31:45 AM EDT

[#33]

BoTW

Charts updated.

Posted: 2/9/2008 3:55:23 PM EDT

[#34]

can you run the price of ammo against the price of brass,lead and powder

Posted: 2/9/2008 8:07:47 PM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
can you run the price of ammo against the price of brass,lead and powder

the base metal price history would be available to do so, unsure on if anyone has been keeping data on powder.

Posted: 2/10/2008 8:26:46 AM EDT

[#36]

I would like to show my wife this chart. She might quit her bitching about all the ammo I bought in 04 & 05.

Posted: 2/10/2008 8:47:57 AM EDT

[#37]

I really hope the trend stops going up soon. I can't see paying as much for 1000 rounds of ammo as I do for my gun. Just doesn't seem right. It would be like paying 1000 bucks for a tank of gas.

I think the US dollar has a lot to do with the prices right now. The cost of brass and copper and lead are extremely high because our dollar value has dropped so much and we import a lot of these materials. The higher cost just gets placed on the end customer (us) so we have to make more sacrifices to get what we want.

My hope is the recession will take a turn for the postitive and our money will grow much stronger in the next 5 years. We will see worse before we see better, but i think there is some light at the end of the tunnel when this gets turned around.

Posted: 2/10/2008 10:10:12 AM EDT

[#38]

Quoted:
I really hope the trend stops going up soon. I can't see paying as much for 1000 rounds of ammo as I do for my gun. Just doesn't seem right. It would be like paying 1000 bucks for a tank of gas.
I think the US dollar has a lot to do with the prices right now. The cost of brass and copper and lead are extremely high because our dollar value has dropped so much and we import a lot of these materials. The higher cost just gets placed on the end customer (us) so we have to make more sacrifices to get what we want.

My hope is the recession will take a turn for the postitive and our money will grow much stronger in the next 5 years. We will see worse before we see better, but i think there is some light at the end of the tunnel when this gets turned around.

If the Exxon pricks keep raping the people who buy gas with the horrible increases that may soon be the price of a tank and I hope they realize soon that they are bankrupting the country and adding to potential anarchy in the streets here in the USA.This is the year to buy a gun,a house or a gas guzzling truck cheap but you won't be able to afford to shoot,drive or heat them.

Posted: 2/10/2008 10:13:56 AM EDT

[#39]

Quoted:

Quoted:
I really hope the trend stops going up soon. I can't see paying as much for 1000 rounds of ammo as I do for my gun. Just doesn't seem right. It would be like paying 1000 bucks for a tank of gas.
I think the US dollar has a lot to do with the prices right now. The cost of brass and copper and lead are extremely high because our dollar value has dropped so much and we import a lot of these materials. The higher cost just gets placed on the end customer (us) so we have to make more sacrifices to get what we want.

My hope is the recession will take a turn for the postitive and our money will grow much stronger in the next 5 years. We will see worse before we see better, but i think there is some light at the end of the tunnel when this gets turned around.

If the Exxon pricks keep raping the people who buy gas with the horrible increases that may soon be the price of a tank and I hope they realize soon that they are bankrupting the country and adding to potential anarchy in the streets here in the USA.This is the year to buy a gun,a house or a gas guzzling truck cheap but you won't be able to afford to shoot,drive or heat them.

The rest of the World pays exactly what we do as far a price per BBL, it's not like the US is singled out to pay more.

Posted: 2/10/2008 2:49:16 PM EDT

[#40]

ahhhh, the good all days.

ar-jedi

Posted: 2/21/2008 3:49:18 PM EDT

[#41]

botw

charts updated.

Gold close $946.30

Posted: 2/21/2008 5:10:53 PM EDT

[#42]

Lets see a chart showing the increase in wages for the same periond and lets leave out the top 1% as it will skew the charts. The real question is why don't they want us having cheap ammo. Why did Clinton order all surplus military ammo destroyed instead of sold when it reached experiation dates? Why is there a movement to to ban firearms and destroy the constitution at the same time? Be a boy scout and be prepared- it's only going to get worse. I didn't buy ammo 3 years ago but I did buy lots of reloading supplies.

Posted: 3/1/2008 3:43:36 PM EDT

[#43]

botw

charts updated

Posted: 3/8/2008 2:09:48 PM EDT

[#44]

charts updated

Posted: 3/8/2008 7:52:54 PM EDT

[#45]

Another reason is that people are trying to stock pile it. They hear it is going up or will be banned or whatever so they get scared and buy it up. That dries up the supply driving prices, the people who bought it see the crazy high prices it is going for (see EE) and then get the all might dollar fever and sell it for crazy amounts. Then people actually pay that amount to get it. It is a vicious cycle and by 2010 if ammo gets to a grand a case I will just have to sell my AR's as I know there is no way in hell my wife will let me spend that much money on ammo. I would like to see a comparison between wages and the rising ammo prices, I know they are in no way even on the same scale.

Eric

Posted: 3/14/2008 8:28:43 PM EDT

[#46]

charts updated

gold @ $1000+/oz FTW!

Posted: 3/15/2008 4:52:26 AM EDT

[#47]

Quoted:
Maybe someone has some concrete pricing data to support/refute this.......but it seems to me that prices on certain calibers have shot up markedly compared to others. Granted some are going to be more popular and so possibly supply contracts will be filled and renewed quicker to market rates than others. But it seems disportionate that .223 has doubled in the last couple years, but .30-06 ammo has remained nearly the same even though there is obviously much more raw materials used in making a round of '06. 3 to 4 times as much lead, and I'm guessing here, but I guess about 3 times the powder and brass as well. I'm basing this assumption based on the price of a box of Remington UMC 55gr at $8 box and Remington power-lokd '06 for $13 a box currently.

Errr....It's called supply and demand. Unless you have a Garand in .30-06, you're not going to chew up as much ammo as an AR in .223. Yes, the .30-06 components are more expensive, but you're movin' a lot more .223 these days. So fuel to transport, labor to manufacture, and material cost increases hit .223 first and .30-06 later. Besides, haven't you heard of the concept of "value pricing"? That where the company charges you for the value of their product, which of course is greater than the sum of the components......Quit whining, pick up your empties, and reload......

Mike Doerner

Posted: 3/15/2008 9:11:47 AM EDT

[#48]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Maybe someone has some concrete pricing data to support/refute this.......but it seems to me that prices on certain calibers have shot up markedly compared to others. Granted some are going to be more popular and so possibly supply contracts will be filled and renewed quicker to market rates than others. But it seems disportionate that .223 has doubled in the last couple years, but .30-06 ammo has remained nearly the same even though there is obviously much more raw materials used in making a round of '06. 3 to 4 times as much lead, and I'm guessing here, but I guess about 3 times the powder and brass as well. I'm basing this assumption based on the price of a box of Remington UMC 55gr at $8 box and Remington power-lokd '06 for $13 a box currently.

Errr....It's called supply and demand. Unless you have a Garand in .30-06, you're not going to chew up as much ammo as an AR in .223. Yes, the .30-06 components are more expensive, but you're movin' a lot more .223 these days. So fuel to transport, labor to manufacture, and material cost increases hit .223 first and .30-06 later. Besides, haven't you heard of the concept of "value pricing"? That where the company charges you for the value of their product, which of course is greater than the sum of the components......Quit whining, pick up your empties, and reload......

Mike Doerner

Supply and demand works in monetary terms across the board as well. The USD$ money supply is increasing by a reported 18%/yr. That's a doubling in supply every 4 years. With fractional reserve banking/credit/debt the money supply is only part of the financial picture - but - with an increase in money supply like that it should come as no surprise to see everything else rising in USD$ cost terms.

The gold valuation sure offers a stark contrast to the exponential cost in USD$. 1/2oz gold gets you 1000+k rounds then, now and.... Stability, not a bad thing imho.