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Posted: 2/6/2018 4:30:59 PM EDT
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history... Is this a precursor or just the new norm? Almost 1000 point swing in the dow? Inflation? All normal markers point to a good economy? Short term correction? In the past the value of a stock was a direct relation in proportion to the value and success of the company... Not any more, hasn't been for a long time. Is the market is a standalone lottery waiting to implode?
Attached File Slow decline? Fast crash? Gold dropping alongside the market and commodities? I used to think I had a clue but not anymore. If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out. My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do. Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on. Figured we haven't had a good economic discussion here in the SF in a while so why not... |
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[#1]
Don't think there is anything surprising here. It's been wildly bullish the last month or so. There was bound to be a correction. Problem is I think it's exacerbated by automated computer sell triggering.
Now is not the time to jump on the buy high / sell low bandwagon. |
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[#2]
My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do. Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on. View Quote And watch for bargains for your Roth IRA. If your retirement account is up, see what you can do to minimize exposure IF you feel this is it. Sell funds you are up on and move that money into cash. If this continues there should be (more) buying opportunities coming up. If you've stacked enough physical PMs and want to get more exposure, consider some gold and silver mining stocks that are currently really cheap. We bought Avino at $.72 a share a few years ago and sold most of it at > $2. about six months later. Oil related companies like some of the MLPs have done really well lately and some pay 10% or more dividends yearly as well. Buy them cheap if you can and build up your dividend income taking distributions as cash to your money market account and then buy more when prices are good versus DRIP setups. REITs have had a good run the last couple years, but MAY take a clobbering if rates go up. Course I was advised to stay away from REITs 2 years ago by a financial advisor. I bought Armour at $19.40 and it's distributes $.19 per share every month and not too long ago was at $27. per share. There is opportunities out there. Of course if I couldn't feed my family for a year and didn't have my preps in order, I wouldn't consider going nutty with investments of any kind. |
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[#3]
Quoted:
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history... Is this a precursor or just the new norm? Almost 1000 point swing in the dow? Inflation? All normal markers point to a good economy? Short term correction? In the past the value of a stock was a direct relation in proportion to the value and success of the company... Not any more, hasn't been for a long time. Is the market is a standalone lottery waiting to implode? https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/140266/dow_graph-443428.JPG Slow decline? Fast crash? Gold dropping alongside the market and commodities? I used to think I had a clue but not anymore. If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out. My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do. Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on. Figured we haven't had a good economic discussion here in the SF in a while so why not... View Quote There's not much unusual about this market except incredibly extreme $/earnings, valuations, and the height it has risen, fueled by GREEDY SHEEPLE. History seems to always repeat. Sheep usually get sheared... |
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[#4]
In the short term the market is pretty much a gamble, but over the long haul it is not.
It is statistically proven that non one can time the market. It is also shown that for every sell recommendation made there are 10 or more buy recommendations. Accuracy of the buy recommendations is low, accuracy of the sell recommendations is high. Go from those facts to reasonably managing your portfolio. Take points and convert to % and nothing odd is really happening. But Yellin did f things up with her parting comments. |
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[#5]
It's noisy in the short term. Silly to listen to noise all day.
For a SF perspective, investing for a domestic collapse is fairly straightforward. What things keep their value, increase in demand, or are generally hard to find during a collapse? Food Water Gold and silver Gasoline And a bunch of other commodities The companies that makes those commodities would be the place to take an equity position. Or just put money outside the country that is falling apart, but the .gov usually comes up with ways to stop that or tax it out of practice. The above is not investment advice, just concepts. |
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[#6]
It did this in 2008 as the market melted down.
Lots of wild intraday swings. Something is bubbling beneath the surface in the markets. |
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[#7]
Quoted: I don't understand why you consider this slight market 'pullback', of an overly inflated market, as something that is unusual? There's not much unusual about this market except incredibly extreme $/earnings, valuations, and the height it has risen, fueled by GREEDY SHEEPLE. History seems to always repeat. Sheep usually get sheared... View Quote |
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[#8]
Quoted: When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day? That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility... I do understand, that's why I posted this thread! We are well overdue for more than a slight pullback, however looking at only todays information would make you think a forward surge as the dow closed 567.02 in the positive bud! View Quote It's happened more than I can remember. |
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[#9]
Quoted: When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day? That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility... I do understand, that's why I posted this thread! We are well overdue for more than a slight pullback, however looking at only todays information would make you think a forward surge as the dow closed 567.02 in the positive bud! View Quote |
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[#10]
Quoted:
When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day? That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility... View Quote There was never this much single day volatility 25-30+ years ago because the human could not trade that fast, but comps can. Big swings also seen worse when the marget is big, but if you look at it in terms of percentage of the market its not that big of a deal. swings will continue to get bigger/faster as computer models get more elaborate and try to out trade each other when they "sense" trends. |
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[#12]
Quoted: When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day? View Quote If it was 1000 points out of 1000 points that would be a major concern. 1000 points out 25000 points not so much. I look at everything in percent. What is the percent extra for getting sour cream and guac on your taco etc. I got into an bidding war while standing in a house I was looking at. We keep going back and forth and I finally won. The my real estate agent was going -> WOW not many people are willing to pay (.....) thousand over the asking price and I answered back it is less than 2% more. It depends on how you look at it. |
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[#14]
There are a lot of cracks in this bubble (stocks, housing, leverage). 2018 is going to be a wild ride...
Accountant |
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[#15]
Quoted:
There are a lot of cracks in this bubble (stocks, housing, leverage). 2018 is going to be a wild ride... Accountant View Quote Spend spend spend spend spend... Print print print print print... Doesn't matter who is the conductor of the runaway train at this point... One thing I know for sure is .gov shutdown doesn't help anyone. Figure it out and let the chips fall where they may. Only time will tell. |
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[#16]
Quoted:
The sky is falling........ head for the hills!!! View Quote I enjoy thought provoking discussion... I don't have a bunker, no buckets of rice, just realistic preps for things that could actually happen. I have no plans to go into the woods and live in a tent (though I practiced and honed the skill set necessary if I wanted to.) Community and networking is key. Information and knowledge is key. I would rather be over informed then stick my head in the sand. SF forum is a good place for discussion and debate for those with an open mind. I enjoy seeing all sides of the thought process, all angles of debate, and a general collaboration of information from like minded folks... That's all... |
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[#17]
Quoted:
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history... Is this a precursor or just the new norm? Almost 1000 point swing in the dow? Inflation? All normal markers point to a good economy? Short term correction? In the past the value of a stock was a direct relation in proportion to the value and success of the company... Not any more, hasn't been for a long time. Is the market is a standalone lottery waiting to implode? https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/140266/dow_graph-443428.JPG Slow decline? Fast crash? Gold dropping alongside the market and commodities? I used to think I had a clue but not anymore. If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out. My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do. Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on. Figured we haven't had a good economic discussion here in the SF in a while so why not... View Quote |
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[#18]
Nobody can predict the future.
The S&P was up more than 20% in the last year. That is quite unusual. I would expect some correction. The +4% in a day is a little unusual, but I'd give it some time to see if any real trends develop. ...scheduled investing usually gets decent returns. It is challenging to time the market. |
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[#19]
yo-yoing is the conflict between profit takers and investors waiting for a correction before getting back in. The speed of the yo-yoing is a result of computerized buying/selling.
I am going with DJI at 30K at year end. |
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[#20]
Quoted:
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history... Is this a precursor or just the new norm? * * * If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out. View Quote My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do. Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on.. View Quote https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Streets-James-Dale-Davidson/dp/0446353167 An economic collapse will virtually ensure that condition. |
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[#21]
Quoted:
My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do. Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on. View Quote Bill |
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[#22]
The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy. By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management.
In reality the economy has not recovered from 2007. While housing prices are back up, it too is artificial and subprime lending is blazing forth. We're repeating the same mistakes. Watch the bond markets. That should go first. BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off. |
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[#23]
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[#24]
Quoted: it happens because of the computer in charge of the trades. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Many traders have programmed in automatic sell orders when the DOW as a whole drops a certain amount. When those thresholds are crossed, the selling starts and the DOW drops even more. Wild swings have been going on since computers got involved. IMHO, I believe its going to be the new normal but only because computers are involved. The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy. By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management. |
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[#25]
Sorry I didn't read the entire thread.
Part of my life has been buying other companies. First let me tell you, a company is not worth what its stock can be. The stock market is fueled by speculation of where it will be and influenced by profit taking. You can gain control of a company if you own or control the majority stock but its not what its worth. It would be an fair indicator if everyone didn't reinvest their dividends in stocks but most of us do. I'll give you an example of one I recently researched. Harley Davidson their sales have been down 8% the last few years. Their stock however if you drew a line over the last five years at the average, hasn't really seesawed its average more than $2 on a $47 a share stock. Yet, its had some highs as high as $70 a share in 2014. Time is a factor and those nice stock charts would be a lot better tool if it had an operator horizontal line that gave you the price at the intersect thus an average. Now if you go back in time, if I had invested in HD stock when my son was born, some 25 years ago and reinvested the dividend, it would have been five times what it was worth at buy in. That takes you full circle to make a buck making one part or make a buck making ten parts. Conclusion, HD isn't going anywhere anytime soon. What brought this on was their announcement of them closing their Kansas facility. Well, I could have told them a 750 cc Harley wouldn't do will in the US. Its not the first time they tried that. They play in the premium market and people don't pay a premium for a bug and premium toys, motorcycles, boats, etc. don't do well in a down economy. Now this said, HD built the 750 cc not really for the US market but the Asian market. It remains to be seen whether that's going to be a major hit for them. That's what I mean about the market doesn't tell a story, even a plant closing doesn't tell a story. In fact, plant buying is a move by other companies to try to shore up their profits short term and can be an indicator of long term problems. Buying your competition isn't a good thing in a down turn market. That takes us to your question. No, I don't see a down turn market in the US. In fact, just the exact opposite. I'm seeing more jobs in the US, jobs that matter with enough pay they can buy more durable goods and even the beginnings, very beginnings, of overseas jobs I saw leave this country coming back. We're not going to be some China that their internal market is so large they have had amazing economic growth every five years but we're already the star of the Western Nations again. Here's another point, you pour Federal monies into social programs, its like throwing it in a fire. There's no return on your investment. Throw it at defense spending, it creates jobs, tax revenue, spurs the economy, and you get a return. I'm not a stock market pro so I won't predict what it will or won't do. There's all sorts of reasons why people take their profits when they do. For example, our stock market has long been propped up by 401Ks and higher interest rates will mean less speculation. Its going to do what it does but at most, the very most, its just a rough indicator of actual economy. Don't take my word for it, look around you? They building more houses? More jobs in the paper? If anything, I'm amazed how how fast we're bouncing back from regulate to death eight years of the Democrats. Like I said, we're no China but getting back to pre-2008 is a relief. Another eight years of fat cat idiots that couldn't make it as lawyers and never took a science class going "I do't want to be in this industry", I don't know where we'd be. Tj |
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[#26]
Quoted:
The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy. By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management. In reality the economy has not recovered from 2007. While housing prices are back up, it too is artificial and subprime lending is blazing forth. We're repeating the same mistakes. Watch the bond markets. That should go first. BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off. View Quote the dow is driven by faith, money that's been held close due to past retards in control is now flowing free, and money is cheap right now= ease of use. This will create growth and also larger swings as people take gains to make up for the shit past 10 years as well as the sheep getting overextended |
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[#27]
Quoted:
nope the wheels don't just magically fall off-doom and gloom BS the dow is driven by faith, money that's been held close due to past retards in control is now flowing free, and money is cheap right now= ease of use. This will create growth and also larger swings as people take gains to make up for the shit past 10 years as well as the sheep getting overextended View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy. By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management. In reality the economy has not recovered from 2007. While housing prices are back up, it too is artificial and subprime lending is blazing forth. We're repeating the same mistakes. Watch the bond markets. That should go first. BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off. the dow is driven by faith, money that's been held close due to past retards in control is now flowing free, and money is cheap right now= ease of use. This will create growth and also larger swings as people take gains to make up for the shit past 10 years as well as the sheep getting overextended Also, cheap money printed out of thin air does not create growth; it creates fake prosperity and asset bubbles that eventually go poof. It looks real but isn't. |
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