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Posted: 2/6/2018 4:30:59 PM EDT
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history...  Is this a precursor or just the new norm?  Almost 1000 point swing in the dow?  Inflation?  All normal markers point to a good economy?  Short term correction? In the past the value of a stock was a direct relation in proportion to the value and success of the company...  Not any more, hasn't been for a long time.  Is the market is a standalone lottery waiting to implode?

Attachment Attached File


Slow decline?  Fast crash?  Gold dropping alongside the market and commodities? I used to think I had a clue but not anymore.  

If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out.

My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do.  Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on.

Figured we haven't had a good economic discussion here in the SF in a while so why not...
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 4:41:40 PM EDT
[#1]
Don't think there is anything surprising here. It's been wildly bullish the last month or so. There was bound to be a correction. Problem is I think it's exacerbated  by automated computer sell triggering.  
Now is not the time to jump on the buy high / sell low bandwagon.
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 4:56:11 PM EDT
[#2]
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 5:35:53 PM EDT
[#3]
Quoted:
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history...  Is this a precursor or just the new norm?  Almost 1000 point swing in the dow?  Inflation?  All normal markers point to a good economy?  Short term correction? In the past the value of a stock was a direct relation in proportion to the value and success of the company...  Not any more, hasn't been for a long time.  Is the market is a standalone lottery waiting to implode?

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/140266/dow_graph-443428.JPG

Slow decline?  Fast crash?  Gold dropping alongside the market and commodities? I used to think I had a clue but not anymore.  

If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out.

My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do.  Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on.

Figured we haven't had a good economic discussion here in the SF in a while so why not...
View Quote
I don't understand why you consider this slight market 'pullback', of an overly inflated market, as something that is unusual?

There's not much unusual about this market except incredibly extreme $/earnings, valuations, and the height it has risen, fueled by GREEDY SHEEPLE.

History seems to always repeat.

Sheep usually get sheared...
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 5:48:09 PM EDT
[#4]
In the short term the market is pretty much a gamble, but over the long haul it is not.

It is statistically proven that non one can time the market. It is also shown that for every sell recommendation made there are 10 or more buy recommendations. Accuracy of the buy recommendations is low, accuracy of the sell recommendations is high. Go from those facts to reasonably managing your portfolio.

Take points and convert to % and nothing odd is really happening.

But Yellin did f things up with her parting comments.
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 9:19:59 PM EDT
[#5]
It's noisy in the short term.  Silly to listen to noise all day.

For a SF perspective, investing for a domestic collapse is fairly straightforward.  What things keep their value, increase in demand, or are generally hard to find during a collapse?

Food
Water
Gold and silver
Gasoline
And a bunch of other commodities

The companies that makes those commodities would be the place to take an equity position.

Or just put money outside the country that is falling apart, but the .gov usually comes up with ways to stop that or tax it out of practice.

The above is not investment advice, just concepts.
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 9:43:28 PM EDT
[#6]
It did this in 2008 as the market melted down.

Lots of wild intraday swings.

Something is bubbling beneath the surface in the markets.
Link Posted: 2/6/2018 11:02:40 PM EDT
[#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

I don't understand why you consider this slight market 'pullback', of an overly inflated market, as something that is unusual?

There's not much unusual about this market except incredibly extreme $/earnings, valuations, and the height it has risen, fueled by GREEDY SHEEPLE.

History seems to always repeat.

Sheep usually get sheared...
View Quote
When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day?  That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility...  I do understand, that's why I posted this thread!  We are well overdue for more than a slight pullback, however looking at only todays information would make you think a forward surge as the dow closed 567.02 in the positive bud!
Link Posted: 2/7/2018 1:12:51 AM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day?  That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility...  I do understand, that's why I posted this thread!  We are well overdue for more than a slight pullback, however looking at only todays information would make you think a forward surge as the dow closed 567.02 in the positive bud!
View Quote
The amount is not important, the % change is the real measure of the fluctuation.

It's happened more than I can remember.
Link Posted: 2/7/2018 5:35:20 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day?  That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility...  I do understand, that's why I posted this thread!  We are well overdue for more than a slight pullback, however looking at only todays information would make you think a forward surge as the dow closed 567.02 in the positive bud!
View Quote
You have to look at the swings as a percentage of the DJIA and it is a function of both the numerator and denominator being much larger than ever before in history. Percentage wise it was a shitty day of note, not much beyond that.
Link Posted: 2/7/2018 9:24:09 PM EDT
[#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day?  That's what I am talking about, the extreme single day volatility...
View Quote
it happens because of the computer in charge of the trades.

There was never this much single day volatility 25-30+ years ago because the human could not trade that fast, but comps can.

Big swings also seen worse when the marget is big, but if you look at it in terms of percentage of the market its not that big of a deal.

swings will continue to get bigger/faster as computer models get more elaborate and try to out trade each other when they "sense" trends.
Link Posted: 2/8/2018 6:15:54 PM EDT
[#11]
DOW today:
23,860.46

down? -1,032.89 -4.15%
Link Posted: 2/8/2018 7:09:36 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

When was the last time the dow fluctuated over 1000 points in one day?
View Quote
% - percent - %

If it was 1000 points out of 1000 points that would be a major concern. 1000 points out 25000 points not so much.

I look at everything in percent. What is the percent extra for getting sour cream and guac on your taco etc. I got into an bidding war while standing in a house I was looking at. We keep going back and forth and I finally won. The my real estate agent was going -> WOW not many people are willing to pay (.....) thousand over the asking price and I answered back it is less than 2% more. It depends on how you look at it.
Link Posted: 2/8/2018 8:15:11 PM EDT
[#13]
The sky is falling........ head for the hills!!!
Link Posted: 2/8/2018 8:35:37 PM EDT
[#14]
There are a lot of cracks in this bubble (stocks, housing, leverage). 2018 is going to be a wild ride...

Accountant
Link Posted: 2/9/2018 1:37:55 AM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
There are a lot of cracks in this bubble (stocks, housing, leverage). 2018 is going to be a wild ride...

Accountant
View Quote
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/07/us/politics/budget-deal-trump.html

Spend spend spend spend spend... Print print print print print...  Doesn't matter who is the conductor of the runaway train at this point...

One thing I know for sure is .gov shutdown doesn't help anyone.  Figure it out and let the chips fall where they may.  Only time will tell.
Link Posted: 2/9/2018 1:46:32 AM EDT
[#16]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The sky is falling........ head for the hills!!!
View Quote
Already live in the hills.  

I enjoy thought provoking discussion...  I don't have a bunker, no buckets of rice, just realistic preps for things that could actually happen.  I have no plans to go into the woods and live in a tent (though I practiced and honed the skill set necessary if I wanted to.)

Community and networking is key.  Information and knowledge is key.  I would rather be over informed then stick my head in the sand.

SF forum is a good place for discussion and debate for those with an open mind.  I enjoy seeing all sides of the thought process, all angles of debate, and a general collaboration of information from like minded folks...  That's all...
Link Posted: 2/9/2018 1:54:35 AM EDT
[#17]
Quoted:
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history...  Is this a precursor or just the new norm?  Almost 1000 point swing in the dow?  Inflation?  All normal markers point to a good economy?  Short term correction? In the past the value of a stock was a direct relation in proportion to the value and success of the company...  Not any more, hasn't been for a long time.  Is the market is a standalone lottery waiting to implode?

https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/140266/dow_graph-443428.JPG

Slow decline?  Fast crash?  Gold dropping alongside the market and commodities? I used to think I had a clue but not anymore.  

If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out.

My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do.  Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on.

Figured we haven't had a good economic discussion here in the SF in a while so why not...
View Quote
Almost everything in my OP is a question. I don't have the answers.  I am not saying anything is or isn't going to happen hence I pose the questions at hand, for the hive to debate.  Stock market is acting crazy, figured we could discuss it, for reasons I posted throughout.  Resistant reply's for what reason???  -Think debate, think brainstorming, I enjoy the reading.  
Link Posted: 2/9/2018 2:26:15 AM EDT
[#18]
Nobody can predict the future.

The S&P was up more than 20% in the last year.  That is quite unusual.  I would expect some correction.  The +4% in a day is a little unusual, but I'd give it some time to see if any real trends develop.

...scheduled investing usually gets decent returns.  It is challenging to time the market.
Link Posted: 2/10/2018 12:26:12 AM EDT
[#19]
yo-yoing is the conflict between profit takers and investors waiting for a correction before getting back in. The speed of the yo-yoing is a result of computerized buying/selling.

I am going with DJI at 30K at year end.
Link Posted: 2/10/2018 9:33:28 AM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
Markets are acting abnormal like we have never seen in history...  Is this a precursor or just the new norm?  * * *

If things do go sideways I think it will effect large city centers first then bleed out.
View Quote
No doubt. Once the Gov't Handouts cease to flow, most large urban areas will begin to resemble, increasingly, Chicago on summer weekends ... or Baltimore most every day after sundown ...

My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do.  Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on..
View Quote
That's never a bad plan ... Plus, a book I read years ago counseled that the best time to profit in the Markets is when "there's blood in the streets."

https://www.amazon.com/Blood-Streets-James-Dale-Davidson/dp/0446353167

An economic collapse will virtually ensure that condition.
Link Posted: 2/10/2018 1:55:07 PM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:

My plan; to keep plugging along one day after another just like I always do.  Stay out of debt, pay the bills, have some emergency supplies on hand and live on.
View Quote
Words of wisdom!
Bill
Link Posted: 2/11/2018 10:18:52 PM EDT
[#22]
The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy.  By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management.

In reality the economy has not recovered from 2007.  While housing prices are back up, it too is artificial and subprime lending is blazing forth.  We're repeating the same mistakes.

Watch the bond markets.  That should go first.

BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off.
Link Posted: 2/11/2018 10:23:59 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off.
View Quote
lol.

the equity (stock) and credit (bond) markets don't price the present, they price the future.

ar-jedi
Link Posted: 2/12/2018 10:13:16 AM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:

it happens because of the computer in charge of the trades.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

it happens because of the computer in charge of the trades.
+1

Many traders have programmed in automatic sell orders when the DOW as a whole drops a certain amount.  When those thresholds are crossed, the selling starts and the DOW drops even more.

Wild swings have been going on since computers got involved.  IMHO, I believe its going to be the new normal but only because computers are involved.

The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy. By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management.
Plus, 99% of people have a 401K, so there's a lot of money in the market.  Much more than there would have been 30-40 years ago.  That also makes a market crash more of a huge national calamity.
Link Posted: 2/12/2018 3:43:21 PM EDT
[#25]
Link Posted: 2/12/2018 9:01:39 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy.  By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management.

In reality the economy has not recovered from 2007.  While housing prices are back up, it too is artificial and subprime lending is blazing forth.  We're repeating the same mistakes.

Watch the bond markets.  That should go first.

BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off.
View Quote
nope the wheels don't just magically fall off-doom and gloom BS

the dow is driven by faith, money that's been held close due to past retards in control is now flowing free, and money is cheap right now= ease of use.

This will create growth and also larger swings as people take gains to make up for the shit past 10 years as well as the sheep getting overextended
Link Posted: 2/13/2018 10:13:27 AM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
nope the wheels don't just magically fall off-doom and gloom BS

the dow is driven by faith, money that's been held close due to past retards in control is now flowing free, and money is cheap right now= ease of use.

This will create growth and also larger swings as people take gains to make up for the shit past 10 years as well as the sheep getting overextended
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
The Dow is not an indication of the strength of the economy.  By propping up the Dow with cheap money, we are subject to perception management.

In reality the economy has not recovered from 2007.  While housing prices are back up, it too is artificial and subprime lending is blazing forth.  We're repeating the same mistakes.

Watch the bond markets.  That should go first.

BTW, I also believe that when the Fed Res raises interest rates substantially (say 2-2.5%), then the wheels fall off.
nope the wheels don't just magically fall off-doom and gloom BS

the dow is driven by faith, money that's been held close due to past retards in control is now flowing free, and money is cheap right now= ease of use.

This will create growth and also larger swings as people take gains to make up for the shit past 10 years as well as the sheep getting overextended
 You're right in that it isn't magic.  It's just finance.  The only reason the charade continues is because the cost of borrowing is so low for .gov.  Government debt can not be repaid, only the interest payments on the debt, and only at 0% interest.  So, when real rates climb above zero, it does fall apart.

Also, cheap money printed out of thin air does not create growth; it creates fake prosperity and asset bubbles that eventually go poof.  It looks real but isn't.
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