Quote History Quoted:Dude, I don’t know where you are in Virginia but you’re certainly not more than 2 gas-tanks away from a gang of armed thuggies leaving Washington D.C. in a few SUVs each carrying a couple of filled gerry-cans of gas.
You’re not as remote as you think you are.
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Having spent some time in NOVA, while I agree, time and distance can be hard to calculate. Add the chaos of a crisis, likely little fuel available without getting in a long gas line; how many roads locked down with traffice? What about some smaller town simply shutting off through-traffice? A nice snow/ice storm? Maybe a severe thunderstorm? What if a primary bridge is down?
If anything is certain, if you're bugging out at the beginning or during a crisis, so are many others. That 6-8 miles or so to work with no traffic is less than 10 minutes from where I was renting a room; worst traffic conditions and it took me 45 minutes
All the challenges we identify and plan for just to "bug home" are the same challenges many will face trying to bugout.
If the crisis or SHTF scenario is extremely bad, but not well communicated, my assessment is about 87% of the local populations in dense suburban/urban/metro areas are going to just go home and sit, waiting for rescue or relief for first 72 hours or three days; it's modern human nature...wait for the government to help you or take care of you. By the time they realize no one is coming, roads are likely blocked with traffic, fuel will be hard to get (how many actually maintain a full tank of gas?), food running out, down to zero potable water, and threat levels are extremely high...how far are they going to make it?
Sure, a healthy male, under ideal weather conditions, in a very permissive environment can do 15-20 miles in a day on foot. Now, how many will be healthy, plenty food and water, and aren't worried about a violent, non-permissive, even contested environment with a route that isn't a straight-line distance?
Unless ground zero is a visible nuke or similar event, urban/metro areas will not have some apocalyptic mass exodus like coastal cities during a pending hurricane. They will delay, many will die, and if they can travel even 10 miles away, I would be surprised, at least for that 87% of the population.
ROCK6