I agree completely with TJ's comments and want to add that its not only current day gang bangers and low lifes that one should worry about.

The threat is going to come from a wide range that will include people who are now productive members of society with jobs and families. Starvation, post traumatic stress, the dehumanizing effects of a world turned upside down will do strange things to people. I have a pretty cynical view of humanity and don't believe it takes much for man to revert back to barbarism.

I wouldn't under estimate anyone.

I can see scenarios where families, friends and/or others band together in tribal groups taking what they need to survive.

History provides countless anecdotes for these types of behavior.

Finally, to TJ's point, there are likely those on this and other gun websites whose prep's don't go much further than their survival arsenal or a few months of food. What are they going to do when the food runs out and are watching their families slowly die from hunger, disease, malnutrition. I think they are first going to ask you, then beg you, and if all else fails fight and possibly kill you for food to keep from dying. The first kills may be emotionally difficult, but will be rationalized. They will blame the victims for not sharing or even if they did share, not sharing enough. They will believe that there family comes first and the victims deserved whatever happened to them.

I hope none of this ever happens. I am doing what I can to learn how to farm and produce my own food. I am trying to establish a sense of community with the small cluster of land owners that surround me. I am trying to build the infrastructure to support a group of family and friends to include some that I have met through AR15.com. Few, if any of these people prep, but I will take them in, because I am going to need them to help operate the farm and provide for our security and general welfare.

Think of it from the perspective of Mazlow's heirarchy of needs, the first level of need is physiological, food, water, shelter.  The other levels range from level 2 which is security to level 5 which is self actualization. Most of us are currently at level 5, but if the shit hit the fan most of us will fall from level 5 to level 1 almost overnight. The rest of us will probably revert to level 2 (security) or level 3 (belonging, such as being part of a group of some sort capable of providing for level 1 and 2 needs.

Free fall of society is going to bring out the ugly side of man.

If the unthinkable ever happens, the world will have truly turned to shit. It will be medieval.

They survive mostly because we are not allowed to cut them down.  If the rules disappear- things will change I assure you.  All throughout history petty packs have been cut down by locals, and the better ones are cut down by LEO's if the locals don't get them first.  

Conflict is an outright crapshoot, and ANY of us can loose.  Many things will slide the odds one way or the other, but one thing is certain sure––- Those who actively seek conflict will find it.  Attrition is assured.

Bonnie and Clyde thought they were real tough, but it ends up the same.


Also: for less than full on collpases I think FerFal has pretty well figured.

This is perhaps the most-significant statement of the entire thread, and the #1 reason I appreciate the SF so much.  Its so good to know when someone else here really gets it... really nails it on the head. Knowing how a predator thinks is the first step in surviving. Anyone who is into coyote hunting understands the nature of predatory animals. Human predators are much the same way. Very dangerous, but there ARE ways of handling them, many have already given some great advice here in this thread.

I'd like to thank everyone for contributing their ideas to this unpleasant concept of what may happen to us in the even of a natural disaster or civil unrest. It gave me a better perspective about what can happen.

Looters like this will have a darwinian evolution at hyper speed. The dumb ones will die soon, the smart and cunning will live and grow more ruthless.

However it may be, the looters will have an uphill battle despite being able to pick the time of the battle. They are going to be facing a numerically superior enemy and they don't always have the advantage of in-depth knowing the terrain that guerrilla tactics often rely upon when facing a numerically larger foe.

When they are looters, its them Vs EVERYONE ELSE. Not good odds for the looters when you think of it like that.

Always good to hear FerFal308 chime in on these kind of subjects.

Also since someone else brought up Sun Tzu, I would like to add a couple of general things from the Art of War.  To defend one must know oneself.  To attack one must know oneself and know his enemy.  You don't have to break and enemy completely, only his will to fight.  This is why he counsels against making an enemy think he has no way out but to fight to the death because "a desperate man is dangerous".  He also says to never get between a retreating army and their home because they will fight to the last man to get back to their home and their family.

How is this relevant in this scenario?  If I my family/group is being attacked by such a group, we know our lives and the lives of our loved ones depend on winning, the enemy will have to fight us to the last man.  They are fighting for whatever good they think we have.  How many are they willing to lose for said goods?  That depends, but I think most criminals are going to stick to soft targets and avoid those that put up substantial resistance.  It just honestly isn't worth it to them each personally.

That is my opinion, but it is supported by the behavior of criminals today both in the US and in other places (see FerFal308's post).

Not that we shouldn't prepare for very well prepared determined enemies.  We definitely should, but I will put my money on the well prepared group of defenders over the supergang.

Wrong. It is perfectly logical for an armed attack to fail without taking significant losses.



 

This forum is, in general, about preparing for the worst.It seems to me that any realistic attempt to prepare means that we need to think of , and prepare for, the worst thing that may happen to our families. Too many of us ure unable to put an adequate distance between ourselves and likely groups of predators, but this only means that we must do all of the other things we can do to successfully deal with them if the occaision arises.I have spent a great deal of time informing the other members of our group of the need to prepare.There have been some fairly tedious conversations/ disputes involved. We have agreed to retreat to a fairly( I use the term advisedly) remote area which we have the equipment to farm. Some of our members have prior military experience and we as a group have agreed to utilize that experience to create a defensive plan which involves a lot of barbed wire, ditches, natural funnels and force multipliers(fugas, command det devices and others) which we have gathered some materials for, to make it difficult to surprise or overwhelm us. the idea is to have applied enough forethought now, while it is relatively cheap and easy to do so, than to try to come up with something wonderful out of our back pocket at the last moment. Nobody has ever come up with a perfect plan that stood up to first contact with the enemy and nobody should expect to, but we can all use the time we have remaining to make the best possible plan, and make ourselves and those we partner with as close to invulnerable as we can.Think about the basics, have a plan, act on the plan and if you are lucky you might get to laugh about it later, but if you just sit and dream about a plan, you are just masturbating and you might as well switch to a porn site.

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