At this point, I think it's still up in the air as to if Dunleavy will get another term. Recent history as far as gubernatorial elections go would suggest Dunleavy will get one term. I'm not convinced yet, and I think he still has a shot at another term.
The biggest mistake Dunleavy made was putting Tuckerman Babcock in as Chief of Staff from the start. Significant mistakes were made such as having Exempt and Partially Exempt State employees sign a pledge to this administration if they wanted to keep their "at will" jobs. That resulted in unnecessary lawsuits being filed by vile creatures such as Libby Bakalar from the Department of Law and others. Dunleavy should have done what every other administration does and have all the "at will" employees submit their resignation letters, then let go the employees they didn't want. Babcock and Dunleavy made it "appear" political. Now it will take time to dig out from that mistake, and they may even lose in court if it can be sold as politically motivated by the ACLU. Then we are ALL stuck with horrific people such as Libby for how ever long she wants a job with the State.
The same point can be made about Dunleavy vetoing $334,700 in funds to the Alaska Appellate Court System over the Medicaid funding for abortions. He made an "announcement" of why he was vetoing that specific amount, which was due to the Executive and Legislative Branch's of government objection to this use of those funds for abortions. The courts said you have to do it. You can debate the merits and politics of the courts opinion all day. The bottom line is that Dunleavy would have been smart to veto an unspecific amount, say $400,000, and not give a reason other than he is cutting every where. He could legally argue that point, because he is trying to cut in other places. Again, this lawsuit could have potentially been avoided or thrown out. Now Dunleavy is having to waste valuable time and resources over a stupid mistake.
As far as the PFD goes, he did what he had to do to win by promising a full PFD again. Where he made his mistake is not selling his plan to the people. He should have been making a tremendous amount of noise in any way possible about his plan. Maybe take a page from Trump's playbook and go all in on social media about it. It's the Legislature that holds the keys to the PFD, and Dunleavy missed the opportunity to get Alaskans "ON THE SAME PAGE" as him, and hold the Legislative Branch accountable for their actions. Alaskans needed leadership and a point man showing where and when to attack, and Dunleavy has yet to provide that.
Much of this boils down to a failure in his communication team.
More failures lay at Dunleavy's feet, along with his trusted insider Brett Huber who is his Senior Policy Advisor. They have put some terrible picks in senior leadership positions such as former Deputy Chief of Staff Jeremy Price, former Department of Administration Commissioner Jonathan Quick who had to resign because he severely embellished his qualifications to become DOA Commissioner, and Department of Transportation Commissioner John MacKinnon. MacKinnon kept pretty much all of the previous administrations leadership in place, and has allowed internal corruption and severe mismanagement to go unchecked. MacKinnon has made some absolutely idiotic decisions such as closing the Sivertip Highway Maintenance camp at the Hope Junction who were responsible for plowing Turnangain Pass, and trying to shut off the lights on the Glenn Highway at night from Anchorage to the valley. There is PLENTY of room for cuts in DOT before you get to these types of public safety cuts.
Dunleavy still has a chance, but he is out of time to get his act together.