Let's try and keep this thread fact based, and with reality in mind.

So moving forward, let's discuss the reality of what happened on 961, the crime commission, the 2021 session, and the elections this fall and for the house in 2021.

Lets start with this :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/why-northams-assault-weapons-bill-never-really-had-a-chance-in-the-virginia-senate/2020/02/23/64e02b6c-5334-11ea-929a-64efa7482a77_story.html?utm_source=reddit.com#comments-wrapper

(sorry I don't know how to link that well)

That article discusses how 961 was essentially dead from the start. The reason it lingered in the house, was to garner support. The reason it came up immediately in the senate, is that they wanted it dead fast, becaue it never had the votes. Let the house pressed it after they were told numerous times.

Surovell supports it 100% and we won't change him. The onky four are the following (we were told there were 17 votes)

Lewis will likely not vote for it.
Deeds seems to think Ar's aren't practical, but is hard to read on the issue.
Petersen is hard to read as well. He and Deeds seem to be riding the line.
Edwards has said next to nothing and I have no clue how close he is.

Next let's talk about the committe.
Thoughts? Obenschain is the head. Bell is vice chair. Both are solid 2a.
The makeup seems to be pretty even, the only unknown is the sheriff of Lunenburg, appointed by coonman. He's been there for a while. He's an independent, black man, but Lunenburg is a 2a sanc.
The crime commission is our next best step and we cannot relent, and must stay on them. Meetings with obenschain, bell, etc. All of us need to stay in the loop on the hearing, and go on public testimony day.

Further thoughts -

2021 - It's almost a given another bill will appear in 2021. That session is 30 days. Will they press a controversial bill in an election year and short session? Will they press it if they fear they'll lose the house and lose their chance? Or will they hold it until after 2021 for fear of losing the house if they press it again? I honestly don't know. I kind of feel like their best chance may have been this year. Then again maybe after a year to work on it, they'll be able to pass it.

The sanctuary movemt did have an effect. I think lobby day did too. Can we make lobby day that big again? Who knows.

Looking forward, after the redistricting, can we even win the house back in 2021? Is it possible to gain 5 seats? I don't know if it's possible. The republicans have to run people.

We even need to look at organization like voting for Lee Carter in the democratic primary, becaue he kept his word. Vote against him in the general, but in the primary he should get our votes if you live in his district. Same goes for the other two dems who voted agianst 961. If there is no Republican primary and you live in those three districts, (Roslyn Tyler, Carter, and I don't recall the third) we need to hit their primary and vote for them, while voting against them in the general.

Thoughts from the more politically concerned here?

Dbrowne etc?

I find it interesting that article says that behind closed doors Petersen said his limit was 4 bills, and that the four of them knew they would not support 961. Many of them do say they support some sort of awb - in principle. But does that mean they're just riding that line?

I also find the forming rift in the senate and house interesting. Plum, Levine, Helmer are pretty radical. And plum has been downright insulting to the senate. Killing Petersens bill allowing Leo's to buy their weapon that passed 40-0 is interesting.

Thoughts moving forward?

I went to Surovell's town hall today. A handful of us spoke directly with him afterwards, and you're right, he's 100% behind an AWB.

He also stated during the town hall that they (the democrats) are waiting for the makeup of the crime commission to change so that they get a favorable review on HB961.

I don't do Facebook, but I have seen the town hall video on Scott A Surovell's Facebook page. The entire video is 1:09:46.  If you watch the video beginning about 39:30 in you can hear him talk about the coming change to the crime commission makeup.  I also suck at doing the hotlink thing otherwise I would post a link to the video.

I think you are also correct in saying that we need to stay engaged and show up at public testimony days when the commission has its hearings.

When does the crime commission makeup change?

I guess we're fucked then and the current members won't be the one reviewing it this year?

I thought the current makeup was there until the end of this year at least because the commission page says members from the legislative body are there constmate with their terms. I find it odd there are more t than d. The senate members are appointed by the senate committee on rules.

The big question is, does the committee change? Or is it up to date and the senate members are there until their terms are up. (2r 1 d) and the house members seem to also be outnumbered (3r 2d). One could argue that the Commission leans d because the executive branch appointees.

Something tells me that page is not up to date or the commission hasn't been appointed for the year and gets done at the end of the session. No way the dems in charge would allow obenschain and bell to be in charge?

https://www.virginiamercury.com/blog-va/two-democrats-propose-recasting-state-crime-commission-as-virginia-justice-commission/

What bill(s) were these, anyone know?

Heretick was the other Democrat who voted against 961.

Agree on supporting friendly Democrats. It’s not helpful for the cause of gun rights to become a wholly partisan issue, because it then rises and falls on the strength of the GOP, and suffers because of other concerns.

That sucks.
HB-961 or worse is an inevitability. The Democrats are playing for keeps. The gerrymandering and voting laws they are implementing will only increase their hold.
I wish the GOP could play the game that well.

How many voters has VCDL registered?

- because getting all those who showed up for sanctuary demonstrations is the ONLY chance we have to flip things back.

Voter registration needs to be VCDL’s new number 1 priority.

I don't know, I don't think VCDL has anything to do with registration to vote.

- and their failure to register gun owners to VOTE is why gun owners will LOSE In November!

Look - I’ve followed VCDL’s adamant refusal to be “partisan” or side with republicans for over a decade.  VCDL proudly touts its “single issue focus.”

- now is NOT the time for pride.  We are about to lose our rights!

Flipping one or both houses BACK to republican majority’s is our only hope going forward.

- yes, I know the demographics are against Rs.

- yes, I know the gerrymandering decision is against Rs.

But the sanctuary movement is PROOF we have the votes to flip one or both houses back to Republican majority.  VCDL is going to WASTE this opportunity to save us if it does not get into the voter registration game NOW.

Finally - yes, I realize what a clown show our state R party is, but as bad as the Rs may be, do you think the Bloomberg-back Dems are actually better for your gun rights??!?