Wow, we're looking pretty good after a mostly cool and wet spring. Hopefully this blunts the fires we'll see in July and August.

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That's good! I still technically work from Western Colorado, and I have family there. Sounds like it's been really dry there this winter.

Awesome! Thanks for the info!

I wouldn’t get too excited about that map. That is really just showing what last week’s snow did to our average for May 23rd. Coming into spring the Helena Valley was at 73% of average for the winter.  Most watersheds east of the divide were near that as well.

Snowpack has very little to do with what kind of fire season we will see. Really, it just effects how much water will be in our rivers and lakes. Fire season is mainly dictated by June and July rains. If we can get splashes of rain throughout those months we will generally be okay. But, once we have 14 days of sustained hot weather (95*+) get ready because that’s all it takes to get the grasses to cure and for everything to be primed.

Currently our 1000 hr fuels (dead wood 3-8” diameter) are sitting at 11-15% around Helena. I’ve actually gotten some single digit readings as well.  It’s gonna be extremely difficult to pull out of that kind of deficit. For the past two years we have had large fires starting in mid-June and running all season. I hope I’m wrong but I am expecting the same thing again this year.

If you have any fire mitigation to do on your property there’s no time like the present. Once there’s smoke in the air it’s generally too late.

Thanks for sharing - informative post. When you say 1000 hour fuels are at 11-15%, is that moisture content? Seems really dry.

Sorry, yes that is moisture percent. For reference kiln dry lumber is 6-8%.

Fuel moistures are always changing. There are many factors involved but one of the main ones is their size. Smaller diameter fuels can have drastic fuel moisture changes in a matter of minutes/hours while larger fuels may take weeks to effect.  The average time lag for a 6” log is 36 days. So, monitoring our large diameter fuels in the spring gives a pretty good indication of where we are starting at coming out of a wet/dry fall and winter.  

Our live fuels are increasing in moisture content but as I stated earlier, a solid two weeks of hot and dry temps and they’ll become available to burn as well. If we can get some rain throughout the summer their drying may be delayed. But, even now, the potential is there that on a warm and windy day we could see fire push through the timber.

Here is a photo of the Lump Gulch fire from two years ago. It went over 1000 acres in a few hours pushed by high winds. You can see how green the grass was. This was June 12th, 2020.

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Looks like more rain in the forecast which will kind of kill our Memorial Day plans. I’m not complaining. If it wants to rain every weekend all summer I’ll be more than happy.