History doesn't show much hope for a Governor to be able to serve two terms in Alaska.
The last republican governor to serve two consecutive terms in Alaska was Jay Hammond back in the mid 70's. The demonrats were able to get Tony Knowles two terms in the 90's. Alaska doesn't show much patience for a governor who isn't leading very well, and Dunleavy made some really stupid mistakes which hurt his chances at securing a large percentage of his base if those voters have a more conservative option. I think Dunleavy may still have a shot if he can keep his polling numbers acceptable. He also has Trump's support which is yuge. Trump will most likely be up here this summer to campaign against Lisa Murkowski, and I'm sure he will be supporting Dunleavy during those speeches unless Dunleavy screws up and says he will support Lisa somewhere.
The wild card is still Ranked Choice Voting now. The little communist troll Scott Kendall got his way and RCV got passed somehow. It is designed to help the incumbent, and I'm sure he is hoping the scam works to keep Lisa in office.
If Charlie Pierce can pull down some serious cash, and navigate the political scene like a pro, he might have a shot. History is on his side. Going to be an interesting year. Looking forward to seeing Trump up here this summer smashing Lisa! Lol! That should be entertaining.