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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:50:14 AM EDT
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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:53:03 AM EDT
[#1]
Well, that sucks, but not exactly surprising either.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:58:59 AM EDT
[#2]
Pretty standard across all kinds of industries
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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:59:51 AM EDT
[#3]
Everything has scarcity, this isn't exactly shocking.
Though it does suck. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 1:01:13 AM EDT
[#4]
In before the ammo conspiracy crowd.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 1:01:49 AM EDT
[#5]
Of course it has. The USD has lost ~20% value inside of 5 months.
Seriously, there has been decreasing parity between USD and asian currencies, which provides a depressingly accurate snapshot of how bailing out trillions for the coof assfucked our purchasing power. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 2:36:13 AM EDT
[#6]
I'd be grudgingly pleased to even find components at 10% increase, primers at 15% increase, I can't even find any at less than 150% increase when I can find them.
I was trying to find Norma .375 H&H brass, and .375 Nosler Accubonds. They are unobtanium, it's not like every swinging dick has a .375 H&H in his safe, where the hell did they all go? |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 2:41:33 AM EDT
[#7]
It's either price increases or shittier product.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:09:57 AM EDT
[#8]
Not alarmed, just clear your frigging backlog.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:20:37 AM EDT
[#9]
So is Lake City raising the price on .gov contracts?
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:28:41 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So is Lake City raising the price on .gov contracts? LC is gov owned, contractor operated last I heard. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:29:59 AM EDT
[#11]
Those increases seem reasonable but its a moot point.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:30:28 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LC is gov owned, contractor operated last I heard. Winchester took over a few months ago. I bet it is some cost plus x% contract. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:39:16 AM EDT
[#13]
Whatever it takes, just adjust the supply to meet the demand curve.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 3:39:55 AM EDT
[#14]
Price serves the necessary function of rationing a good or service.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 6:55:34 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So is Lake City raising the price on .gov contracts? It probably doesn’t matter. Just a matter of time before Biden issues an EO banning Winchester from selling any components or ammo built in the Lake City plant to civilians. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 7:03:12 AM EDT
[#16]
But there is no need for expansion
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Posted: 1/24/2021 7:19:30 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's either price increases or shittier product. Well, Winchester ammo is already Freedom Munition tier so..... |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 7:31:23 AM EDT
[#18]
Would be nice if they disclosed what their actual cost to make the product is right now.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 7:40:53 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Would be nice if they disclosed what their actual cost to make the product is right now. Be nice if they explained how supply and demand works. Seems some still don't get the idea. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 7:57:34 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Would be nice if they disclosed what their actual cost to make the product is right now. And what purpose would that serve to you? |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 7:59:45 AM EDT
[#21]
What there is no downside to letting the money printer go Brrrrrrrrrrrr?
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Posted: 1/24/2021 8:04:54 AM EDT
[#22]
Before the conspiracy theories start, i can 100% affirm that there are shortages of raw materials across a lot of industries. In my case steel shortages are becoming a major problem throughout the country. Stuff we ordered that once took days now takes months to fabricate. In some cases, industries are rationing steel supply. My fear is that commercial construction will be slowing down as a result.
Im told that our suppliers are having issues getting steel, wood, plastics, paint, etc. On top of this, there is a real issue with delays in ship times. Its not just USPS delivering mail and parcels. National freight haulers aren't keeping up and trucks are not showing up when they are supposed to. Its been a real shit show for a few months now. Winchester isn't gouging....this is a real issue and ammo is just one more industrial producer getting impacted by it. They wont be the last. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 8:19:57 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Before the conspiracy theories start, i can 100% affirm that there are shortages of raw materials across a lot of industries. In my case steel shortages are becoming a major problem throughout the country. Stuff we ordered that once took days now takes months to fabricate. In some cases, industries are rationing steel supply. My fear is that commercial construction will be slowing down as a result. I was going to post this. The company I work for is not related to the gun industry at all. We make all sorts of products out of steel and aluminum though, mostly automotive and agriculture related. For the last month we have been running jobs based on what material we have. 2021 be like it is. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 8:38:47 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LC is gov owned, contractor operated last I heard. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: So is Lake City raising the price on .gov contracts? LC is gov owned, contractor operated last I heard. LCAAP has been a GOCO facility for decades |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 8:44:04 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's either price increases or shittier product. lol, you forgot get both. QC will still keep declining as a cost savings. Winchester lower grade stuff has been spooky at times over the last few years. Our training pistol and rifle ammo has has missing primers, inverted primers, rifle ammo with bent necks, folded over necks that prevent chambering, etc. I had to tell guys to actually inspect their ammo before putting it in the magazines after I did a live ammo pogo demonstration on another guy’s carbine who had a neck folded over itself making it too fat for the chamber neck. I do not trust Winchester practice grade ammo. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 8:49:36 AM EDT
[#26]
Everyone is raising prices... sherwin is raising paint prices come February. Most all commodities are steaming higher.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 9:18:58 AM EDT
[#27]
Seems reasonable tbh
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Posted: 1/24/2021 9:25:10 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Would be nice if they disclosed what their actual cost to make the product is right now. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 9:29:14 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Be nice if they explained how supply and demand works. Seems some still don't get the idea. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Would be nice if they disclosed what their actual cost to make the product is right now. Be nice if they explained how supply and demand works. Seems some still don't get the idea. Look at London Metal Exchange copper prices over the last year. That’s bullet jackets and cartridge brass. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 9:33:35 AM EDT
[#30]
Look at the prices of copper and zinc (main components of brass) the past year. All up. Nickle too.
Companies aren't selling primers because they need all of them for their own manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if powder prices have gone up for them, since it's also in great demand. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 9:36:16 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It probably doesn’t matter. Just a matter of time before Biden issues an EO banning Winchester from selling any components or ammo built in the Lake City plant to civilians. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: So is Lake City raising the price on .gov contracts? It probably doesn’t matter. Just a matter of time before Biden issues an EO banning Winchester from selling any components or ammo built in the Lake City plant to civilians. Those are actual contracts with specified terms for government priority as well as commercial sales. The only way an operating company can run that place is to maximize output and squeak by on minimal margins. If we aren’t in a hot shooting war, the .gov doesn’t pull enough ammo to keep them busy. What FJB might be able to do, is place huge orders for strategic reserve and suck up all the capacity, leaving nothing for commercial. You are talking about hundreds and hundreds of millions of rounds of FMJ though. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 9:38:44 AM EDT
[#32]
The difference in this panic from others is that most gun shops and manufacturers were well-aware of the situation and have been adjusting prices since it began.
This go around they aren't missing out like in the past. Ammo will never be as cheap as it was a year ago ever again even once this settles. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 10:16:46 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Of course it has. The USD has lost ~20% value inside of 5 months. Seriously, there has been decreasing parity between USD and asian currencies, which provides a depressingly accurate snapshot of how bailing out trillions for the coof assfucked our purchasing power. this |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 10:24:41 AM EDT
[#34]
Does this mean that this 5%-15% wholesale price increase is the first Winchester price increase since all this started? Does this mean that the 300%-500% retail price increases we've seen are all because of distributor and retailer mark-up?
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Posted: 1/24/2021 10:29:40 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But there is no need for expansion Understanding short term market spikes vs long term increases that necessitate capitol investment is a thing. Also, a production capacity increase on this scale has little affect to actually reduce raw material prices in the short term. It's more about what people can manufacture for you, not that you can produce more. Question: What do you do for a living? |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 10:36:26 AM EDT
[#36]
If price doesn't equalize demand to supply, how does one expect to avoid shortages?
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Posted: 1/24/2021 10:38:00 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not alarmed, just clear your frigging backlog. Yep |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 11:51:29 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yep Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Not alarmed, just clear your frigging backlog. Yep Right. It's probably only a few billion rounds, at this point. That' shouldn't be a problem... |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 11:59:36 AM EDT
[#39]
The surprising thing is that the increases are only in the 5-10% range.
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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:06:45 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But there is no need for expansion Would you invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in increasing your capacity to service the civilian market when the federal government is ruled by Democrats putting legislation like this forward? https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/127 Not a call I'd make for my company. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:46:21 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Would you invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in increasing your capacity to service the civilian market when the federal government is ruled by Democrats putting legislation like this forward? https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/127 Not a call I'd make for my company. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: But there is no need for expansion Would you invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in increasing your capacity to service the civilian market when the federal government is ruled by Democrats putting legislation like this forward? https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/127 Not a call I'd make for my company. Memories are short. Mid-2019 you couldn’t give 223 or 5.56 FMJ Ammo away. 9mm ball was about the same. It was as cheap as it was ever going to get, and store shelves were overloaded with it. There isn’t a long term lack of capacity. It is the compression of several years worth of demand into a very short buying frenzy creating an artificially steep demand vs supply curve. That is not a good case for capital expansion in any market segment. Economics...it’s a thing. |
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Posted: 1/24/2021 12:47:36 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In before the ammo conspiracy crowd. In before the micro chips planted in each round to track their use. 
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