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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:44:04 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I have no idea but I just locked on a 30 fixed at 2.375%. Crazy cheap money. I just locked in a 30 fixed at 2.75 |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:04:19 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The market will not crash in the next 4 years. They will pull out all the stops and if there needs to be a correction it'll happen on a "Republicans" watch so they can eviscerate them and say "see, this is why Republicans fuck everything up". My wild ass guess If they can stop it they will or at least try. I said this in the other thread, no one has any wealth. The middle class is leveraged with debt, likely approaching similar amounts as during 08. The big difference is that they debt isnt just in their house, it is across several pricey depreciating assets. I am constantly amazed at the people I come across with household incomes between $100-200k who couldnt come up with $1k without their credit card. It is not because they are smartly managing all their money in investments, but because they are in the "what's $10 more dollars a month payment" position. Ill add. We would love to move, get out of suburbia and get a couple acres again. Right now everything is overpriced because of low rates. We decided we are going to wait it out for a couple years. We refinanced into a 15yr with a lower payment. Our payoff rate will allow us to be done in 10yrs to less. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:14:16 AM EDT
[#3]
My wife works in the building material industry for a multi billion dollar company and they are at record sales. She's being run ragged right now and just got 200 more houses this week. She wants it to slow down a bit because she's miserable, makes good money but the stress is killing her.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:21:09 AM EDT
[#4]
We're at 3.02%, and we owe $390k on a $426k purchase two years ago. The market here is super hot, and we could probably get around $575-600k right now. We're half tempted to sell it now, take the equity and move to our rural 4 acres and live in a camper while we build an off grid cabin before everything collapses.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:50:18 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Feds ain't raising the interest rates anytime soon, you should be fine. Quote HistoryQuoted: Feds ain't raising the interest rates anytime soon, you should be fine. Quoted: rates will be going up. Gotta love this place at times. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:57:59 AM EDT
[#6]
I don't think its going to get any better for buyers out there anytime soon. The housing starts in most areas are still not around their 2007-8 peaks.
I went to a housing market forecast yesterday put on by a market analyst who predicted the 2008 downturn and he sees supply issues continuing on for the next several years. Also the cost of building materials has increased dramatically lately and is pushing the cost of new builds up quite a bit. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:06:37 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Housing market is insane here in MT with covid refugees! Out of state buyers buying site unseen for over asking price. Houses sell in minutes when they are listed.  Yep, same here in Northern Maine. locally you can get an intown house for 50-60k no problem(80 years old, in town, half acre lot), NOW with COVID refugees those houses are 90k -150k. no joke. Not really any jobs here pay enough to support that. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:09:10 PM EDT
[#8]
I am closing on 15yr 2% through Amerisave.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:10:28 PM EDT
[#9]
they are going to float 50 year treasury paper and then after you will have 50 year fixed mortgages.
In order to apply a default risk premium to a mortgage backed security you actually need a risk free rate of return with similar duration in order to calculate that DRP on the MBS. Well right now the longest maturity in US treasuries we have is the 30 year, and we have 30 year fixed mortgages. When we get 50 year UST we will get 50 year mortgages. By doing that, you can raise rates and still have people able to buy homes with an affordable monthly mortgage note. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:11:22 PM EDT
[#10]
Monday™
AND FREE GYM007! |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:17:38 PM EDT
[#11]
With Yellen talking 50yr treasuries and banks offering 120mo car loans at 125% loan to value ratios this bubble is only going to get bigger.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:21:19 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not gonna happen anytime soon. Years is soon. New housing starts just set a new decades long record. Supply/demand. Like in 2004 - 2008? |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:23:27 PM EDT
[#13]
Just wait until banks are forced to kick up the SJW home loans in the name of “equity.”
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Posted: 1/22/2021 1:22:48 PM EDT
[#14]
The housing market here in Idaho is Nuts! New subdivisions are poping up and have buyers paid up already there are almost no realtor signs because the entire thing is for people already paid for.
There are places that were way rural farm ground for miles that are nothing but new subdiviaion, its sickening what is happening to rural Idaho. 
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Posted: 1/22/2021 2:38:17 PM EDT
[#15]
Not in the near future, rates will remain low for some time the fed will make sure of that, conventional loan limits went from 439k to 510k now up again to 548k. That means you can get over a half million dollar home with 3.5% down.
Plus bidet just kicked The mortgage forbearance can down the road, I believe there are 2.3 or 2.4 million Americans not making their payments right now but will not be evicted because of a gov program. Everything is being propped up but the fed is printing soo much money they are devaluation the shit out of our fiat currency. Real estate will continue to increase in price because of it |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 3:23:37 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: they are going to float 50 year treasury paper and then after you will have 50 year fixed mortgages. In order to apply a default risk premium to a mortgage backed security you actually need a risk free rate of return with similar duration in order to calculate that DRP on the MBS. Well right now the longest maturity in US treasuries we have is the 30 year, and we have 30 year fixed mortgages. When we get 50 year UST we will get 50 year mortgages. By doing that, you can raise rates and still have people able to buy homes with an affordable monthly mortgage note. Quote HistoryQuoted: they are going to float 50 year treasury paper and then after you will have 50 year fixed mortgages. In order to apply a default risk premium to a mortgage backed security you actually need a risk free rate of return with similar duration in order to calculate that DRP on the MBS. Well right now the longest maturity in US treasuries we have is the 30 year, and we have 30 year fixed mortgages. When we get 50 year UST we will get 50 year mortgages. By doing that, you can raise rates and still have people able to buy homes with an affordable monthly mortgage note. They were and may still be doing 50 year notes in CA. Last I heard mortgages were all tied to 10 year treasuries? Quoted: Not in the near future, rates will remain low for some time the fed will make sure of that, conventional loan limits went from 439k to 510k now up again to 548k. That means you can get over a half million dollar home with 3.5% down. Plus bidet just kicked The mortgage forbearance can down the road, I believe there are 2.3 or 2.4 million Americans not making their payments right now but will not be evicted because of a gov program. Everything is being propped up but the fed is printing soo much money they are devaluation the shit out of our fiat currency. Real estate will continue to increase in price because of it This is not a good trend, the fed hasn't touched rates and has been buying US treasuries yet the 10 year rate continues to go up. That means they're having to increase the yield to entice buyers. There may soon be a day when people say nope we don't want any more US debt. There are other places to put money and China is actively working to attract that capitol.  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 5:02:12 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your ship has sailed. The people who wanted your 1,200 sq ft home exited the market and they’re waiting for the same thing. When your house only sells for $125k are you going to move out and buy that bigger house? Life isn’t ever going to get less busy. The market is going to slowly return to 5 percent mortgages and everyone waiting to capitalize on the collapse is going to be sadly mistaken. People with homes have jobs and refinanced already to the sub 3 percent rates going on now. When interest rates go up and homes come down in price people will say how the market collapsed. They won’t look at the $2,500 mortgage from 2019 that matches the $2,400 mortgage in 2023. Also, tip toe in the house because of a kid? Worst decision ever. Signed “a father of one with another on the way in 1,300 sq ft. Lol. A house in the neighborhood behind us which is 1020sqft, 3br, 3bath just sold for 480,000 two weeks ago. Don't think its sailed yet |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 7:28:01 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If they can stop it they will or at least try. I said this in the other thread, no one has any wealth. The middle class is leveraged with debt, likely approaching similar amounts as during 08. The big difference is that they debt isnt just in their house, it is across several pricey depreciating assets. I am constantly amazed at the people I come across with household incomes between $100-200k who couldnt come up with $1k without their credit card. It is not because they are smartly managing all their money in investments, but because they are in the "what's $10 more dollars a month payment" position. Ill add. We would love to move, get out of suburbia and get a couple acres again. Right now everything is overpriced because of low rates. We decided we are going to wait it out for a couple years. We refinanced into a 15yr with a lower payment. Our payoff rate will allow us to be done in 10yrs to less. The stats say this is incorrect. Personal savings rates are at historic highs. The missus and I are saving like mad. The money we used to spend on dinners out, travel, etc. just goes into our accounts now. Even in a turnaround, I doubt we will change our habits. We've gotten used to spending less, and we like it. We were never spendthrifts, but we're even more miserly now. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 7:31:09 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't think its going to get any better for buyers out there anytime soon. The housing starts in most areas are still not around their 2007-8 peaks. I went to a housing market forecast yesterday put on by a market analyst who predicted the 2008 downturn and he sees supply issues continuing on for the next several years. Also the cost of building materials has increased dramatically lately and is pushing the cost of new builds up quite a bit. This is not a sign of climbing home and building material values, it's a sign of a weaker dollar camouflaged by printing presses that go brrrrrrr. It will end someday, but I can't predict when. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 7:32:06 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: they are going to float 50 year treasury paper and then after you will have 50 year fixed mortgages. In order to apply a default risk premium to a mortgage backed security you actually need a risk free rate of return with similar duration in order to calculate that DRP on the MBS. Well right now the longest maturity in US treasuries we have is the 30 year, and we have 30 year fixed mortgages. When we get 50 year UST we will get 50 year mortgages. By doing that, you can raise rates and still have people able to buy homes with an affordable monthly mortgage note. Until they die, and beyond. A paid off home will become rarer. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 7:36:25 PM EDT
[#21]
Quoted: What are the chances the market stays the way it is and interest rates stay low for at least another year and a half? Toying with the idea of moving now but life is busy and a year and a half may be a better time frame.  Wait a year and a half =>you'll be in that house for at least a decade. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 8:03:12 PM EDT
[#22]
It’s always interesting to see the doom and gloom predictions, but none of the doomers say what they’re doing other than predicting doom and gloom.
Meanwhile interest rates are super low and market keeps setting records every week. Real estate is nothing more than supply and demand. The super low rates just make demand much, much higher. That’s why new housing starts are so high. Supply and demand. There is so much opportunity now it’s unbelievable, but only if you’re not a dooomer economy and dollar is going tits up any day now (which doomers have been saying for 20 years). |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 8:21:58 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Like in 2004 - 2008? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Not gonna happen anytime soon. Years is soon. New housing starts just set a new decades long record. Supply/demand. Like in 2004 - 2008? Totally not comparable. Apples and Volkswagen comparison. If you want the cheap money it’s there, but it’s not being handed out like candy. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:24:42 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If they can stop it they will or at least try. I said this in the other thread, no one has any wealth. The middle class is leveraged with debt, likely approaching similar amounts as during 08. The big difference is that they debt isnt just in their house, it is across several pricey depreciating assets. I am constantly amazed at the people I come across with household incomes between $100-200k who couldnt come up with $1k without their credit card. It is not because they are smartly managing all their money in investments, but because they are in the "what's $10 more dollars a month payment" position. Ill add. We would love to move, get out of suburbia and get a couple acres again. Right now everything is overpriced because of low rates. We decided we are going to wait it out for a couple years. We refinanced into a 15yr with a lower payment. Our payoff rate will allow us to be done in 10yrs to less. Refreshing to see that other people “get it” |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:27:32 PM EDT
[#25]
Prices right now are also thanks in large part to low inventory. That’s not going to change much in the next few years.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:29:34 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Prices right now are also thanks in large part to low inventory. Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:34:04 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. This is not entirely true. Interest rates play a major role. Low rates entice people to buy when they ordinarily might not. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:40:16 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Prices right now are also thanks in large part to low inventory. Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. My family is uprooting and moving in the next few months to a new state. Housing prices are much higher. We’re looking all around the city of my employer but most areas have threadbare inventory and houses are being listed at premium prices. Making matters worse, we’re competing against cash buyers with no contingencies while we’re contingent on closing to have enough to compete price-wise. Then there’s the issue with lender appraisers not keeping up to speed with the market increases, leaving buyers to soak up appraisal gaps as prices keep climbing. Shitty to buy, but proceeds from the sale of our house should be very nice. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:45:47 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is not entirely true. Interest rates play a major role. Low rates entice people to buy when they ordinarily might not. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. This is not entirely true. Interest rates play a major role. Low rates entice people to buy when they ordinarily might not. I agree with spidey; inventory, or the lack thereof, is the driver. I’m searching the Columbus, OH market for a single family home. Inventory should typically be 15,000 homes available in and around Columbus this time of year. My realtor is seeing only 1,300 in the MLS right now. Interest rates might be enticing people to stay put and refinance. Could be people don’t want to let others inside to view their houses thanks to the pandemic. Who knows. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:50:37 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I agree with spidey; inventory, or the lack thereof, is the driver. I’m searching the Columbus, OH market for a single family home. Inventory should typically be 15,000 homes available in and around Columbus this time of year. My realtor is seeing only 1,300 in the MLS right now. Interest rates might be enticing people to stay put and refinance. Could be people don’t want to let others inside to view their houses thanks to the pandemic. Who knows. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. This is not entirely true. Interest rates play a major role. Low rates entice people to buy when they ordinarily might not. I agree with spidey; inventory, or the lack thereof, is the driver. I’m searching the Columbus, OH market for a single family home. Inventory should typically be 15,000 homes available in and around Columbus this time of year. My realtor is seeing only 1,300 in the MLS right now. Interest rates might be enticing people to stay put and refinance. Could be people don’t want to let others inside to view their houses thanks to the pandemic. Who knows. Inventory is light here too at the moment. Plenty to be had if you want to buy or build for $500 plus, but the $175,000-$225,000 market which is most people is slim at the moment. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:01:43 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I agree with spidey; inventory, or the lack thereof, is the driver. I’m searching the Columbus, OH market for a single family home. Inventory should typically be 15,000 homes available in and around Columbus this time of year. My realtor is seeing only 1,300 in the MLS right now. Interest rates might be enticing people to stay put and refinance. Could be people don’t want to let others inside to view their houses thanks to the pandemic. Who knows. All true, but I also know people who are typically renters who for the first time are looking to buy due to interest rates. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:02:11 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I agree with spidey; inventory, or the lack thereof, is the driver. I’m searching the Columbus, OH market for a single family home. Inventory should typically be 15,000 homes available in and around Columbus this time of year. My realtor is seeing only 1,300 in the MLS right now. Interest rates might be enticing people to stay put and refinance. Could be people don’t want to let others inside to view their houses thanks to the pandemic. Who knows. Went to school in Columbus and could never imagine actually settling down there. Guessing that is why the area never bubbled. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:10:23 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This is not entirely true. Interest rates play a major role. Low rates entice people to buy when they ordinarily might not. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Like everything else, supply/demand determines price and nothing else. This is not entirely true. Interest rates play a major role. Low rates entice people to buy when they ordinarily might not. True. Like I said earlier it (stupid low mortgage rates) just tosses gasoline on the demand fire side. Opportunity is abundant. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:25:37 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: LoL. You don’t get out much do you? Op, watch for the economy to recover. Once it does, the Fed will raise rates, when that happens, you have anywhere from 3 months to a year. It seems like things start to cool off at about the third 1/8 point incremental raise. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: We are at a 3.875% as of 2017 when we bought the place. One floor living is tough. Maybe we will try this summer. Problem is finding a place once we sell  will have to put contingency on us finding a house.LoL. You don’t get out much do you? Op, watch for the economy to recover. Once it does, the Fed will raise rates, when that happens, you have anywhere from 3 months to a year. It seems like things start to cool off at about the third 1/8 point incremental raise. Apparently I don't get out much either. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 11:41:39 PM EDT
[#35]
I see it all crashing down.... im not a expert but it's been too crazy. With bidet coming in, government is going to crush growth. On top of that, the pandemic and all the people that are about to be evicted. If not that the landlord crushed with their debt......recipe for disaster.
Just my 2 cents |
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