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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:32:48 PM EDT
[#1]
I have no idea but I just locked on a 30 fixed at 2.375%. Crazy cheap money.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:33:09 PM EDT
[#2]
87 days.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:34:12 PM EDT
[#3]
Feds ain't raising the interest rates anytime soon, you should be fine.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:34:12 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted: We live in a modest (1200sqft) turn key raised ranch/split level whatever you want to call it. We would like a colonial as it sucks putting the kid down to sleep and having to tip toe around since we are basically on one floor with the rooms very close to one another and not big. We are in the safe suburbs where houses are selling within a day or two like everywhere else. Houses exactly like ours are going for $500,000-$550,000. What are the chances the market stays the way it is and interest rates stay low for at least another year and a half? Toying with the idea of moving now but life is busy and a year and a half may be a better time frame. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:35:22 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I hav eno idea but I just locked on a 30 fixed at 2.375%. Crazy cheap money. What bank? I'm looking at 2.25-2.75 for 15yr. and going to be pulling the trigger tomorrow or Monday. Thanks! |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:35:51 PM EDT
[#6]
No way of knowing. The markets are not rational.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:37:43 PM EDT
[#7]
We are at a 3.875% as of 2017 when we bought the place. One floor living is tough. Maybe we will try this summer. Problem is finding a place once we sell
 will have to put contingency on us finding a house.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:40:27 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What bank? I'm looking at 2.25-2.75 for 15yr. and going to be pulling the trigger tomorrow or Monday. Thanks! A local community bank here in St Pete that finances mortgages nationally. I'll PM you the info. I went VA, which is usually a bit better and I have old man credit scores so that helps. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:44:08 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We are at a 3.875% as of 2017 when we bought the place. One floor living is tough. Maybe we will try this summer. Problem is finding a place once we sell will have to put contingency on us finding a house. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:45:24 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: where the hell is a tiny ranch worth 500k? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We are at a 3.875% as of 2017 when we bought the place. One floor living is tough. Maybe we will try this summer. Problem is finding a place once we sell will have to put contingency on us finding a house.Not California, worth over $1mil in a lot of places. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:46:05 PM EDT
[#11]
Who really knows. Everyone thought this year, but it looks unlikely now Biden extended eviction moratorium another 3 months, and they will probably extended another 3 months and so on. This is probably the best sellers market in years the housing shortage is huge.
 More bullish signs for the 2021 housing market |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:48:13 PM EDT
[#12]
RE lawyer - my opinion is this feels like the feeding frenzy just before the 08 bust.
There is a massive structural problem right now with delayed residential evictions and commercial tenant bankruptcies. IDK I could very well be wrong, but it feels like a balloon about to pop to me. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:50:22 PM EDT
[#13]
When gas prices reach $4/gal, the housing market crashes. People have to buy gas...and they will start defaulting on their mortgages...just like with Hussain Zero
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:52:36 PM EDT
[#14]
They where predicting a bust before the election. I think by this time next year the real estate market will have crashed.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:57:00 PM EDT
[#15]
They just announced the other day that interest rates are at a 50-year low. What do you think the odds are of it being that lower year from now? Gas prices of already got up by 50 Cents a gallon.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 8:58:19 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: When gas prices reach $4/gal, the housing market crashes. People have to buy gas...and they will start defaulting on their mortgages...just like with Hussain Zero History repeats. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:00:20 PM EDT
[#17]
Not gonna happen anytime soon. Years is soon. New housing starts just set a new decades long record. Supply/demand.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:03:01 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: RE lawyer - my opinion is this feels like the feeding frenzy just before the 08 bust. There is a massive structural problem right now with delayed residential evictions and commercial tenant bankruptcies. IDK I could very well be wrong, but it feels like a balloon about to pop to me. This is the same way it feels to me. I started a thread about it a couple weeks ago "somethings changed in the re market". a lot of people thought the same thing. BUT who knows I have been wrong before. One thing I am seeing right now that to me is a warning. I have watched in the last 4 months, 3 houses near my houses, change hands 3 times. Flipper sold to a flipper sold to a flipper.... Last time I saw that kinda churn and crap was right before 08. I think the next post after the one I am quoting, nails it. I think the straw that breaks it's back is going to be $4+ gas or if they ever let evictions start again.... lol... |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:04:53 PM EDT
[#19]
Once residential foreclosures begin again, there will be an adjustment. Economic conditions under Biden are also unlikely to benefit the majority of American families. We will see the bubble pop in some markets, while others will get a fractional value adjustment.
Unfortunately, where I live in FL, the entire county is developed and housing inventory is limited. I do not anticipate that we will get killed this time around, like in 2009. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:11:50 PM EDT
[#20]
Don’t rush. Even if they go up a little bit, it’s not worth it to rush the important things.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:23:33 PM EDT
[#21]
Find a new house first... even if you have to take out the minimum mortgage... make sure that you can recast your mortgage...
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:35:33 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not gonna happen anytime soon. Years is soon. New housing starts just set a new decades long record. Supply/demand. I thought I just read that new home sales have been trending down for the last 3 months. I think it was overall, so I know there are still some regional spots that may not be impacted yet. Anecdotally, I have noticed more homes sitting longer and actually seeing one or more price drops before selling lately in SEMI . The 2 story homes I have been watching are still selling pretty quick at $180/sq ft, but not near as fast as they approach $200+/sq ft. I have seen a few new builds with lots of upgrades moving better than I thought they would at $250+/sq ft. I've been looking on and off for the last year or so. Not in a huge hurry to move, but will if I find the right house at the right price. Every realtor I talk to tells me a different story. Some say all their sales are 20% or more down or all cash. Others say everyone is trying to put down as little as possible to take advantage of low rates. I don't know what to make of all of their stories. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 9:47:27 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I thought I just read that new home sales have been trending down for the last 3 months. I think it was overall, so I know there are still some regional spots that may not be impacted yet. Anecdotally, I have noticed more homes sitting longer and actually seeing one or more price drops before selling lately in SEMI . The 2 story homes I have been watching are still selling pretty quick at $180/sq ft, but not near as fast as they approach $200+/sq ft. I have seen a few new builds with lots of upgrades moving better than I thought they would at $250+/sq ft. I've been looking on and off for the last year or so. Not in a huge hurry to move, but will if I find the right house at the right price. Every realtor I talk to tells me a different story. Some say all their sales are 20% or more down or all cash. Others say everyone is trying to put down as little as possible to take advantage of low rates. I don't know what to make of all of their stories. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Not gonna happen anytime soon. Years is soon. New housing starts just set a new decades long record. Supply/demand. I thought I just read that new home sales have been trending down for the last 3 months. I think it was overall, so I know there are still some regional spots that may not be impacted yet. Anecdotally, I have noticed more homes sitting longer and actually seeing one or more price drops before selling lately in SEMI . The 2 story homes I have been watching are still selling pretty quick at $180/sq ft, but not near as fast as they approach $200+/sq ft. I have seen a few new builds with lots of upgrades moving better than I thought they would at $250+/sq ft. I've been looking on and off for the last year or so. Not in a huge hurry to move, but will if I find the right house at the right price. Every realtor I talk to tells me a different story. Some say all their sales are 20% or more down or all cash. Others say everyone is trying to put down as little as possible to take advantage of low rates. I don't know what to make of all of their stories. Location, location, location. What you’re “seeing” is not a trend, just a trend to your area. Right now demand is sky high, supply is low. Couple with historic low rates and here we are. I am not in the RE business. But I do know supply/demand. We all do. It’s what sets price. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:00:07 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: RE lawyer - my opinion is this feels like the feeding frenzy just before the 08 bust. There is a massive structural problem right now with delayed residential evictions and commercial tenant bankruptcies. IDK I could very well be wrong, but it feels like a balloon about to pop to me. So you are telling me now is the time to sell my SW Florida beach house? Then once the bubble pops jump back in and get the bigger house on the canal that I want for the same money? |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:03:07 PM EDT
[#25]
The market will not crash in the next 4 years.
They will pull out all the stops and if there needs to be a correction it'll happen on a "Republicans" watch so they can eviscerate them and say "see, this is why Republicans fuck everything up". My wild ass guess |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:06:38 PM EDT
[#26]
Two weeks
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:08:16 PM EDT
[#27]
IDK..stomach says soon..BUT it sure is awesome right now! Closing next week on a refi..knocked 7 years off my loan by going to a 15 year amortization..went from 4.125 to 2.125..payment only went up 77$ a month.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:10:24 PM EDT
[#28]
Nobody knows. If someone claims to know, they are lying.
Bubbles always burst. Eventually everything reverts to the norm. We are way below the norm, interest rate-wise. Keep that in mind. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:25:51 PM EDT
[#29]
I don’t see relief. Covid was rough on commercial real estate and residential rental. I don’t think there’s a massive backlog of evictions pending for home owners. New construction is expensive. I think the rate will go up a little this year but remain a historical bargain. If the first time buyer credit goes through that would just be money in the seller’s pockets.
It’s not getting better for a while. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:26:32 PM EDT
[#30]
3 years
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:39:02 PM EDT
[#31]
Let's say the housing market crashes the day after you close.
You would have sold one house at the high, and assuming you did the smart thing and moved the proceeds into the new house, combined with a low rate and a didn't over extend on the price of the new house, what have you lost? Your old house would have lost value anyway if you hadn't sold. Now if you sell your current house, pocket the extra cash and take out a new mortgage for a similar purchase price, you'd be in a worse spot, but you'd still have the extra cash. Either way you have a cheap mortgage. Rates realistically can't go up dramatically in a short period of time. They can't really go much lower, but they will take time to go back up. Right now, as long as you don't overextend yourself on purchase price, money is cheap and the housing market is crazy. The biggest problem with housing bubbles isn't the part where housing prices fall. It's the part where people can't afford what they bought. |
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:42:17 PM EDT
[#32]
I suspect if they pass the unrealized capital gains tax - the housing market will react. Very positive if real estate is exempt - very negatively if it is not.
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Posted: 1/21/2021 10:52:34 PM EDT
[#33]
The price will only go up! Better buy now or else you will never be able to afford a house!!
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:33:32 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: where the hell is a tiny ranch worth 500k? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We are at a 3.875% as of 2017 when we bought the place. One floor living is tough. Maybe we will try this summer. Problem is finding a place once we sell will have to put contingency on us finding a house.LoL. You don’t get out much do you? Op, watch for the economy to recover. Once it does, the Fed will raise rates, when that happens, you have anywhere from 3 months to a year. It seems like things start to cool off at about the third 1/8 point incremental raise. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:35:24 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They just announced the other day that interest rates are at a 50-year low. What do you think the odds are of it being that lower year from now? Gas prices of already got up by 50 Cents a gallon. The odds of it going lower? Not likely. It’s already well below inflation. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:45:22 AM EDT
[#36]
With yellen in there I expect you'll be taxed on the value of your home that hasn't been sold yet, the housing market will crash and interest rates will go to 30% or so
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:46:01 AM EDT
[#37]
Just signed closing documents today for 1.75% on a 30 year note. If I keep making my old payment, my pay off will be 20 years.
I don't plan on selling for another 10 to 15 years. So hopefully if the crash happens, hopefully It will recover before then. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:48:00 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: RE lawyer - my opinion is this feels like the feeding frenzy just before the 08 bust. There is a massive structural problem right now with delayed residential evictions and commercial tenant bankruptcies. IDK I could very well be wrong, but it feels like a balloon about to pop to me. Yep. Agreed. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:51:02 AM EDT
[#39]
We'll see.
The housing market is red hot here. Houses do seem to be sitting slightly longer than before though. I plan on buying before rates go insane. Eventually home prices recover so if they go upside down for a bit I won't stress about it. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:53:34 AM EDT
[#40]
10 year is at 1.1 today and climbing. The fed is propping up the bond market but yields are still going up with higher inflation on the way. Rates are going up regardless of what the feds do because of all the money printing.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/01/06/bond-market-smells-rat-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-1-04-highest-since-march-30-year-1-81-highest-since-february-mortgage-rates-jumped/ One bond guy said if the rates hit 1.3 or so all hell breaks loose given rates have more than doubled since August. All that to say mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury  .......
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:54:51 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The market will not crash in the next 4 years. They will pull out all the stops and if there needs to be a correction it'll happen on a "Republicans" watch so they can eviscerate them and say "see, this is why Republicans fuck everything up". My wild ass guess They did everything they could to keep RBG alive. Pumped that haggard bitty with everything they had. Still couldn’t keep her pulse going long enough to make it to Xiden's coronation. Sometimes there’s nothing they can do to keep it propped up. Jen the market decides it’s done it will be done and the crash will be epic. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 12:58:54 AM EDT
[#42]
Timely thread. I was just talking to the wife about this. I hope to be out of N.Y. by the end of the summer (once we find a place & sell ours).
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Posted: 1/22/2021 1:00:21 AM EDT
[#43]
Quoted: We live in a modest (1200sqft) turn key raised ranch/split level whatever you want to call it. We would like a colonial as it sucks putting the kid down to sleep and having to tip toe around since we are basically on one floor with the rooms very close to one another and not big. We are in the safe suburbs where houses are selling within a day or two like everywhere else. Houses exactly like ours are going for $500,000-$550,000. What are the chances the market stays the way it is and interest rates stay low for at least another year and a half? Toying with the idea of moving now but life is busy and a year and a half may be a better time frame. Your ship has sailed. The people who wanted your 1,200 sq ft home exited the market and they’re waiting for the same thing. When your house only sells for $125k are you going to move out and buy that bigger house? Life isn’t ever going to get less busy. The market is going to slowly return to 5 percent mortgages and everyone waiting to capitalize on the collapse is going to be sadly mistaken. People with homes have jobs and refinanced already to the sub 3 percent rates going on now. When interest rates go up and homes come down in price people will say how the market collapsed. They won’t look at the $2,500 mortgage from 2019 that matches the $2,400 mortgage in 2023. Also, tip toe in the house because of a kid? Worst decision ever. Signed “a father of one with another on the way in 1,300 sq ft. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 1:02:08 AM EDT
[#44]
Any time now, all the federal reserve sorcery in the us can't keep this anemic corona patient alive with xiden putting a pillow over its face.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:09:55 AM EDT
[#45]
I don't see residential real estate collapsing until the Fed allows foreclosures again
Once that happens the market will be flooded with cheap(er) homes and banks will take a bath/need another bailout. Then it gets fun |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:12:02 AM EDT
[#46]
When supply meets demand.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:17:01 AM EDT
[#47]
I’ve been considering selling & renting a place because housing prices have gotten so crazy. I’d love to time to just right & get a steal on the next house with some land. I just feel like it continue at this pace forever given the pandemic/economy, but it will be hard to convince the wife.
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:21:19 AM EDT
[#48]
Nobody knows. 4 more years of Trump and I wouldn't have bet on any kind of significant market correction. With Biden, who knows? He's going to hurt the economy, but by how much is anybody's guess.
Here's what I absolutely do know, if it's a good time to buy, it's a bad time to sell. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:32:45 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: where the hell is a tiny ranch worth 500k? Where I live they are up to $950k. No shit. |
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Posted: 1/22/2021 10:42:51 AM EDT
[#50]
Housing market is insane here in MT with covid refugees! Out of state buyers buying site unseen for over asking price. Houses sell in minutes when they are listed.
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