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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:35:29 AM EDT
How does everyone think this will play out? Prices on things like cars and houses are through the roof. I think it is all driven by the free government money. Stimmies to individuals and business owners got a ton of free cheese also and everyone is just spending it like crazy causing increased demand while at the same time production is limited due to covid shutdowns. As someone who owns a fair amount of assets I am wondering what the best move is. Would it make sense to sell a bunch of things now and get top dollar for them with hopes of buying back in the future once the government stops handing out free money and people are unloading all the shit they bought and can't afford?

For example I have a couple rent houses bought within the last ten years that we have done nothing to in terms of upgrades. I can sell them right now for twice what I paid for them. My two year old pickup has 40k miles and I can sell it for what I bought it for new. We currently have more vehicles than drivers so I could sell it and do without for a while. Is it possible that I could sell now for what it cost new, wait a year or whatever until things return to normal and buy a brand new one for the same amount? If I unload the rent houses now is it possible I could buy back cheaper in the not too distant future? Or are prices likely to just continue to go up?
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 10:19:04 AM EDT
[#1]
Money printer goes brrrrrrrrrrr. More money chasing a limited supply.
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 10:26:03 AM EDT
[#2]
sell all your houses and sleep in your truck
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 11:07:08 AM EDT
[#3]
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Quoted:
Money printer goes brrrrrrrrrrr. More money chasing a limited supply.
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I agree. But I guess what I am pondering is if this higher pricing is just the new norm due to currency devaluation or is it more temporary due to all the cash in consumers hands right now? By that I mean I would assume this money will work its way through the economy and ultimately end up in the hands of the wealthy who won't be blowing it on cars and average houses. The typical American gets excess money they go buy shit. Once the buy shit the money is in the hands of the wealthy and they tend to save and invest it. Maybe it isn't quite that simple but it just seems to me that once the stimulus stops the average person will be broke again and prices of shit will drop as no one will be buying it.
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 11:07:13 AM EDT
[#4]
Ridiculous growth in the money supply + COVID shutdowns of manufacturing/raw material production = high inflation/high prices

Can't really extricate the two at the moment.  Once supply chains settle down, we'll be able to see more of a pure inflationary effect.
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 11:08:52 AM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:
sell all your houses and sleep in your truck
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Why not sell the truck too and sleep in a tent?

Im not considering selling my personal home but I am considering selling all of my rental property. I could be wrong but I tend to think If I sell now I can buy something comparable for much less sometime in say the next three years.
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 11:16:51 AM EDT
[#6]
The fed says it's temporary.  They might be right if the administration and the fed stop printing right now.  They won't stop.

Think of this like a brush clearing fire aka controlled burn.  Those never get out of hand do they...
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 11:39:58 AM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:


Why not sell the truck too and sleep in a tent?

Im not considering selling my personal home but I am considering selling all of my rental property. I could be wrong but I tend to think If I sell now I can buy something comparable for much less sometime in say the next three years.
View Quote


I'm inclined to agree with you, sell 2 now and buy 4 in a couple years. Only downside is............what do you think the interest rates will be in 2 years?
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 11:47:18 AM EDT
[#8]
And you sell the property and get the cash - where do you put that to hedge against inflation?  Crypto?  Diversification is a good thing and if you own property at least you have some place to go.
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 12:00:44 PM EDT
[#9]
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Quoted:


I'm inclined to agree with you, sell 2 now and buy 4 in a couple years. Only downside is............what do you think the interest rates will be in 2 years?
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I don't borrow money. These houses were bought with cash and anything I buy in the future would be done with cash. If interest rates skyrocket that will only help to drive prices down further for me.
Link Posted: 5/13/2021 12:02:28 PM EDT
[#10]
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Quoted:
And you sell the property and get the cash - where do you put that to hedge against inflation?  Crypto?  Diversification is a good thing and if you own property at least you have some place to go.
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Probably in a mix of assets. VTSAX, metals, crypto.

These are rentals. I have my primary home that is paid for that I will not be selling.
Link Posted: 5/14/2021 12:57:36 AM EDT
[#11]
When supply chains return to normal prices may dip a small amount but I wouldn't count on it.

We could use an interest rate hike to stop the rapid inflation going on in the stock, housing and auto markets.

If things continue look at the trends during the carter administration for an approximation then adjust for current economic climate.
Link Posted: 5/14/2021 6:00:58 PM EDT
[#12]
Everyone i know that comes up with reasons to back off all the time and often use words like rebalance, correction, printing money, devaluation, impending _____, or bubble never really seem to have anything substantial.

That's kind of a gun owner mentality also,  that's why you see it so much here.  Cautious. Planning for the evil around the corner.

Of the 50 wealthiest people i know,  none of them use those words other than very occasionally about the the commodities they produce. Milk market correction, etc.

If every time you build up steam,  you let the steam out, you won't have much steam i reckon. That's my observation.

If you look at a historical chart of most things,  it doesn't inspire me to do anything but hold them.
Link Posted: 5/15/2021 2:01:36 PM EDT
[#13]
Personally I would not sell a house to put the money in the market, metals, or cash.  I think real estate tends to do better during inflationary times than the market, so you would be going the wrong direction.  

As much as I would love to see prices on everything fall, I am not sure it is going to happen.  Too much new money, too much inflation.  

With a paid off house, and paid off rentals, you are sitting pretty dang good currently, assuming you already have some investments in the market as well.  If you don’t want to leverage those into more rentals by taking in cheap debt, and you aren’t getting hosed by the current eviction situation, maybe just stay the course.  

Link Posted: 5/15/2021 2:06:21 PM EDT
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Everyone i know that comes up with reasons to back off all the time and often use words like rebalance, correction, printing money, devaluation, impending _____, or bubble never really seem to have anything substantial.

That's kind of a gun owner mentality also,  that's why you see it so much here.  Cautious. Planning for the evil around the corner.

Of the 50 wealthiest people i know,  none of them use those words other than very occasionally about the the commodities they produce. Milk market correction, etc.

If every time you build up steam,  you let the steam out, you won't have much steam i reckon. That's my observation.

If you look at a historical chart of most things,  it doesn't inspire me to do anything but hold them.
View Quote


That is pretty sage advice. Maybe people have said this before during other times but I can't think of anything in my lifetime that approaches what is going on now. I generally try to focus on things I can change and not waste time worrying about things beyond my control but still it seems that if there is a massive shift in the landscape it might be good to reevaluate your strategy or take advantage of the current situation.
Link Posted: 5/15/2021 2:14:43 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Personally I would not sell a house to put the money in the market, metals, or cash.  I think real estate tends to do better during inflationary times than the market, so you would be going the wrong direction.  

As much as I would love to see prices on everything fall, I am not sure it is going to happen.  Too much new money, too much inflation.  

With a paid off house, and paid off rentals, you are sitting pretty dang good currently, assuming you already have some investments in the market as well.  If you don’t want to leverage those into more rentals by taking in cheap debt, and you aren’t getting hosed by the current eviction situation, maybe just stay the course.  

View Quote


Rentals are not for me. I truly hate them. Percentage wise our rent houses are a small piece of the puzzle but are the cause of most my stress. I hate hounding people for money and dealing with all the miscellaneous bullshit. We just had a tenant move out who lived in the house for 3 years and it is going to take 10k to get the house in the condition it was in when they moved in. Pretty much wiped out all returns for the past three years. People rent for a lot of different reasons and I hate to generalize but many renters are renters because their finances are fucked otherwise they would be home owners. I hate dealing with them. If I was just raking in money hand over fist on the rentals it might be worth the hassle but the returns just aren't that great on a paid for house. If you use leverage and finance the rentals then the return on your cash invested looks a lot better but I don't do debt.
Link Posted: 5/15/2021 2:53:25 PM EDT
[#16]
Ahhh- well that makes a huge difference.  

Either have the rentals managed for you, or sell them off.  Not worth that amount of headache if that is the situation.
Link Posted: 5/15/2021 11:04:35 PM EDT
[#17]
The rental that the tenant fucked up was handled by a management company. Our other one is not. The manager did his job well I guess but still just him informing me of all the bullshit stressed me out. The management company charging 10% of the rent erodes into the small profits even more.

I think my feelings about it are not even logical really. By that I mean the problems on the rentals are not of a magnitude that it impacts my life significantly but I let it eat at me. Never in a million years would I think of not paying someone on time or damaging what was theirs. I take better care of others things than I do my own. For example if a tenant is late on rent it literally consumes me I can't get it out of my head even though I just let the rents accumulate in an account and then do something with them once a year.

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