#coronavirusupsides

Lol, nope, they'll just cut production accordingly

#rolexisascam

Doubtful!

Saw my AD last week, told her if people cant buy them, ill buy the ones on my list.  I generally get one a year based on the big backlog.

Demand seems to be unaffected from what I’ve heard / seen.

3/19 Rolex Shuts All Plants and Prepares for Worst Year Ever

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/rolex-shuts-plants-as-watchmakers-prepare-for-worst-year-ever

Yep, Rolex and Omega are certainly shut down.  I have an Omega with a broken GMT module that needs repair, so I'm on stand by until LVMH starts to work again...

I've been chatting via e-mail with Zenith about a strap.  The Swiss office is in a work from home situation and since, well, they use LVMH here in the USA, I think I'll be waiting a while for a strap.

First world problems and all.

Of course they shut down.  All us know Rolex is just sitting on all their watches anyway.  They make them and store them away.  
Release them every once in a while and watch us clap like freaken seals.  
They will just use this again, to drive demand up.  
They will not compromise (freaken HK of watches LOL).

They sell every watch they want to.

aaaaaannnnnnndddddd?  

They have sold several to me.  They created the gray market, and then implemented ways to kill it.  



I think we are saying the same thing.  They control their market.

I thought about this and at first, I agreed with you, but then I thought about it more...  I think they sell every sports model they want to, but some of the other lines, not so much.

Sports watches are hot and have been for a while.  There are waiting lists for pretty much all of the Rolex sports models.  On the other hand, I suspect you could walk into any AD and pick your own Datejust or Cellini in whatever configuration you want because those aren't selling as well.  I mean, even Costco has 11 Rolex watches in stock right now.  They're all Datejusts and President Day-date.  I don't think the Milgauss sells all that well, but they're still making them.  And 1,000 gauss...

I don't even think that Rolex is the gatekeepers for the waiting lists.  I think the ADs are the gatekeepers and if they have the better customer, that better customer will get preference when something extra desirable shows up.

What I do think is Rolex doesn't want to produce a lot of what is hot right now.  They want to manage those expectations.  They want you to buy that Oyster Perpetual or Datejust and get on a waiting list for your Submariner.

That said, when I compare the Submariner to the Omega Seamaster with the coaxial escapement and Si14 balance spring, I think the Omega is the better watch, from a purely technical perspective.  Omega makes a ton of them and you can walk into your AD today, pick out the one you want and go home with it.  I could call my local AD, get the person monitoring the phone from home, and get a discount from RRP and have that Seamaster with the white ZrO2 dial shipped right to my door...  I'm waiting for Omega to put a GMT complication in that 42mm Seamaster, though.  Once they do that, I'll be breaking the door down at my AD.

That said, I could probably call them up and get an Oyster Perpetual today, as well.  I don't really want one, but there it is...

Scarcity creates demand.  Just like the HK comment from before.  HKs were scarce and expensive, so people wanted them.

Rolex has built a brand and they protect that brand.  By managing supply and demand, Rolex is way more desirable than Omega.  I really do have to hand it to them, they do a great job.

AD’s have to buy them (ladies DJ, etc) with the hot sports models.

AD’s are all independently owned except for one spot in Geneva IIRC.

Therefore Rolex sells all the watches they want to.

(Not disagreeing with you - their model fully protects themselves.  And yes I’d wager the AD controls the buyer (who gets the hot watch).

Great points, all.

Yeah, the AD gets stuck with the ones that are less desirable...  Because they have to buy them.  LOL!

Recommended Retail Price...

Watches are always listed at RRP on websites, but for many brands, you can negotiate.

Rolex sports models are generally non negotiable, though - if you can get one at RRP, buy it.  

Yep, I'm waitin' for those Explorers to come down in price.  Maybe I'll pick one up when they're below $2,000.

Haha, I'm right with you, there!  

Frankly, my favorite watch to wear, especially for travel, is the 50th anniversary edition Seamaster 300M GMT.  It's on a 1128 movement, which is ETA-based.  It's off at the Omega fix it shop waiting for the people to come back to work and repair it.  The movement was damaged.  

GMT complication is my absolute favorite and to me, one of the most useful complications on a watch...  I keep hoping they'll add a GMT to the current 300M with the ZrO2 dial, but I think 2020 is canceled.  The whole year...

I'm saving dollars for a purchase around October/November, so I might wind up with one of those Rolex Polar Explorers if Omega disappoints me.  And provided I can find one...

Isnt false impression of intrinsic value a key component of luxury goods?

It doesnt really matter how good it is, as long as it's good enough, AND not obtainable by the poors.

And that's the most important part....not obtainable by the poors.  Because it's a display of wealth, status.  That's why they cost what they do....not because those lux goods are actually worth the cost based upon the product....but worth it in order to communicate something about the wearer.

Now that doesnt mean the people in this thread think that way....but it is why Rolex can sell a watch that's equaled by other makes for 3x (or more) the price.

I suspect that there will be a surplus of used watches, real ones on the marketplace soon.  High end jewelry shops will start to be flooded with them as well as other goods as people whose business has crashed.

There is a lot of insightful reading here on the value, intrinsic value, etc.

The value of a Rolex being linked to how good a watch it was, how durable it was,  has been out of kilter since the mid 1970s or so.

My earliest memories of the brand are the ads in old National Geographic magazines which formed that Rolex was for guys who climbed mountains while fighting off leopards then skydived off the cliff and went scuba diving in shark infested waters.

And at least by direct report from guys in the 60s and early 70s, they were still a fairly viable option cost wise for a young LRRP, Ranger, GB, SEAL, etc., although Seiko was starting to make a presence, its only true screw down serious diver was a nearly unknown 300m , until 1976 when it’s 150m diver got a screw down crown.

Basically, in 1970  a Sub was 200$.  In 1980 it was $1000.  In 1985 $1500.


By my HS graduation and entry into the military in the mid 1980s,
This meant a day/date 6309 Seiko diver at the PX for $130 was truly the “poor man’s Rolex.”  To get a Rolex was full price at an off post store, or some special orders about non CONUS in the states, or at an overseas PX.


It had virtually supplanted the whole Rolex for SOF guys.

And when I heard my first a Rolex joke.

Rolex makes the absolute best $500 dive watch in the world. (when they cost $1500)

The joke has been updated a lot.

Ten years later the joke was they make the best $1000 dive watch in the world when they were 3-4K.

Twenty more years and they are now 8k.

They did a fantastic job earning a reputation as a durable, reliable, fine timepiece.
And an even better job situating themselves with a luxury reputation with luxury prices.
Now with an insane vintage collector market as well.


To the point where nobody that has bought a SS Sub or SD in the past fifty years has lost money, and in many case have outperformed most investments.

I like the post above me, but would like to see some numbers ran that show their prices taking inflation into consideration. But I still loved the anecdotal information, so please don’t take it as a dig.


That being said, anyone seeing retail prices have downward pressure? Still waiting to pounce on a deal, and I guess I could go look, but I like talking to you curmudgeons better

The price of a basic Rolex SS sub with date in, RRP/deal/PX averages about:
1968- 180
1970- 220
1975- 450
1980- 900
1985- 1500
1990- 2750
1995- 3300
2000- 4000
2005- 4500
2010- 7250
2015- 8500
2020- 9000

If you can even find or get one.

A 1970 sub by inflation would be- 1500 now,
A 1975 2K now
1980 $2800
1985 $3500
1990 $5400
1995 $5600
2000 6K
2005 6K
2010 8500$

Play around as you like with various times, prices, average pay, etc.

Basically, Seiko can Dump $2200 in productions costs into an amazing dive watch, and people balk at why should they pay 3k for a Seiko.
Rolex can put $2200 production cost into an amazing dive watch, and more people will line up to pay 9k for it than can get one.

Rolex did an absolutely amazing job building a high quality reputation then transitioning that into a luxury reputation.  
It’s my understanding they kept an old school, family, buck stops here, focus on the long game business model vs revolving CEOs answering to a Board or Directors answering to shareholders focused on short terms quarters only in succession that has crushed many other companies.
For example, instead of making lower priced watches called Rolex to increase market share, but would have diluted the Rolex reputation, they still made renown tool watches as Tudors.  Which in itself has become a company whose products sell for more than many other Swiss brands.

I would love to hear a round table with some current MBAs, PH.D.s in finance, and a professor of a history specializing in the Swiss watch production discuss this.

Edit- I forgot to add, it seems to have a had a maybe ten percent or so cut in the asking price for used, vintage, almost no hit on grey market new, and zero affect on authorized new.