So, just how doomy and gloomy is this industry going to get?

Significant gloom.

I’ll put my chips on the table. Given the last couple of weeks....I’m picking up every flight of overtime I can get and squirreling money away. In the entirety of my career I’ve only seen this industry going from slowly regaining a pulse to surging from the embers of the recession. The suddenness of how things can go from boom to potential bust has me very anxious. Just a couple months ago I was thinking about what would be the best place to go long term and wondering if I should take another gig. Now Im wondering if I have enough seniority to hold reserve or if I’d be placed back in the right seat or even furloughed at the place I’m currently at if this trend continues.

Funny old world, eh?

In my opinion, I think the next four months is going to determine the next five years

Well, if you have a King Air background and a clearance that's no more than 24 months out of use, there are plenty of circles to be flown.

Hang in out there!

So how long is it going to take for one of the worker unions in this business to stop showing up to work?

Social distancing is being preached by everyone.

Picking up max work and max pay.  Gonna be business as usual to last man on earth in 24 hours.  Maybe not the next 24 hours, but first COVID-19 case here and the schoolhouse will close for sure (line captain and sim instructor).   I'm pretty senior and an instructor, if I go down I'm done in the airline business.  Too old to start over....again.

The .gov gets paid, regardless.

I'm guessing the AFA.

I wouldn’t want to be at the bottom of any seniority list.

DOH!

Now you tell me!

The Legacies are in deep kimchee.

Thirty days of no TRANSLANT travel is, to quote Creepy Joe, "A big fucking deal."

It will be 30 days at least.

AA announced accelerating the parking of the 757/767 tonight.  They were on the way out anyways, but now much faster.  76's by may, 75's starting this summer.  I'd expect the 190's to be next.  Working on voluntary, unpaid leaves of absence.

This wont help the already abysmal stock price in the morning though.

https://www.fox4news.com/news/american-airlines-pilot-based-in-north-texas-tests-positive-for-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR2Ar1P5zUyH1C6Pg-nXAUHKJ5WlWPotUjrDTAbKraN4WacJcMgU8zWkz28

First: Numbers don't lie, or as Lean Six Sigma guru Michael George says; "In God we trust, everyone else bring data". Pay is up across the board for entry level positions and that is a sign of a shortage of qualified candidates to fill an open position, in any industry.

Second: Retirements; We can't stop father time, don't think the old guys, who are most likely to suffer from the Wuhan Virus won't be taking extra sick time, or just calling it quits early. Even minimal staffing and reduced routes will keep new hiring going at the majors. This is a short term speed bump, not the end of an industry.

Third: Americans, and a whole bunch of others are still allowed to come from Europe by air to the US, Hotels.com put this email out to it's customers this morning:

"Dear valued customer,

As you may have seen in the news, the United States government has prohibited non-US citizens who are from the 26 countries that make up the European Union’s Schengen Area or who have visited the Schengen Area in the previous two weeks from entering the United States. These countries include Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

The United States government’s policy goes into effect at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on March 13, 2020 but does not apply to persons aboard a flight scheduled to arrive in the United States that departed prior to 11:59 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on March 13, 2020. The United States government has stated that they intend for this policy to be in place for the next 30 days.

This policy does not include or impact

American citizens, permanent legal residents and their immediate families

Any child, foster child or ward of a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident, or who is a prospective adoptee pursuant to the IR-4 or IH-4 visa classifications

Members of the U.S. Armed Forces and spouses and children of members of the U.S. Armed Forces

Anyone traveling at the invitation of the United States Government for virus-related work, certain travelers related to NATO or United Nations work, and certain travelers doing work related to the CDC, Department of Homeland Security, State Department and other law enforcement issues

Certain classes of air or sea crewmembers

Anyone traveling from the United Kingdom who has not been to the Schengen Area in the last 14 days

While not prohibited from entering the United States, these travelers who have been to the Schengen Area may be required to return to the US through select airports where enhanced screening procedures have been established.

What will happen next

If you are impacted by these new rules and cannot travel to the United States during this 30-day period, please know that we are working quickly with our travel partners to address this unprecedented situation and to take care of you.

If you have only booked lodging via Hotels.com we will ensure you will have the option to cancel and be refunded. If you have booked air travel or a travel package, we are working with our airline partners to understand how their cancellation policies will work.

We will contact you shortly with more details and next steps including how to confirm any changes to your travel plans and how the cancellation process will work.

While the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is a rapidly changing and fluid situation from a public health perspective, we are committed to keeping you informed and to taking care of you as a valued Hotels.com customer.

Sincerely,

Hotels.com"


This email tells me that someone from the US Government has actually articulated and distributed a clear and concise message on the policy. It's also time specific and can be planned around.

Fourth: How much you want to bet that the B737 Max re-authorization to fly remains on schedule, or comes up earlier.

Fifth: Get good information, control what you can control like your resume, and don't give up.

Definitely a big deal.  However, it's not necessarily no TRANSLANT flights.  We can still fly to/from the Great Britain and possibly the entire British Isles.  We can also still fly to certain city pairings to the mainland Europe.  That said, it's going to be at a severely reduced schedule and we'll be bleeding cash for a while.  Even if CV goes away soon, it will potentially take years to recover from this.

Sixth:  Always have a backup plan....just in case.  

Retirement, right knobber?

More bad news.

Delta plans to “park” up to 300 planes

Ed Bastian to Delta Colleagues Worldwide

The Challenge Facing Us - COVID-19 Impact Growing Rapidly

Earlier this week, I updated you on the steps we are taking to protect our people, our customers and our business amid the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak. In just the few days since, the situation has worsened considerably, with large public events cancelled, businesses suspending travel, and popular destinations facing heightened government travel restrictions, including a 30-day ban to continental Europe announced Wednesday night.

Demand for travel is declining at an accelerated pace daily, driving an unprecedented revenue impact. Cancellations are rising dramatically with net bookings now negative for travel over the next four weeks. To put that in perspective, we’re currently seeing more cancellations than new bookings over the next month.

The speed of the demand fall-off is unlike anything we’ve seen – and we’ve seen a lot in our business. We are moving quickly to preserve cash and protect our company. And with revenues dropping, we must be focused on taking costs out of our business.

In order to do this, we are taking difficult but determined actions to protect the financial position of the company. These include:
An overall capacity reduction in the next few months of 40 percent – the largest capacity reduction in Delta’s history, including 2001.
Elimination of flying to continental Europe for the next 30 days, which could be extended. We will maintain service to London.
Parking up to 300 aircraft as our reduced capacity requires a substantially smaller fleet.
Deferring new aircraft deliveries to manage our reduced capacity and preserve cash.
Reducing capital expenditures by at least $2 billion for the year, including delaying aircraft mods, IT initiatives and other opportunities to preserve cash.
Immediately offering voluntary short-term, unpaid leaves as well as an immediate hiring freeze.
Substantially reducing the use of consultants and contractors.

We’ll be making more critical decisions on our response in days to come. The situation is fluid and likely to be getting worse. But what hasn’t changed is this: Delta remains better-positioned to weather a storm of this magnitude than ever before in our history. We’ve spent a decade building a strong, resilient airline powered by the best professionals in the business. We will get through this, and taking strong, decisive action now will ensure that we are properly positioned to recover our business when customers start to travel again.

In coming days and weeks, every one of us will have an opportunity to contribute to Delta’s durability. That ranges from considering a voluntary leave that works for you and your family, to identifying opportunities to save money in your division or department, to volunteering for the Peach Corps to help our customers and colleagues at the airport. I ask all of you to see what you can do to help us save cash.

In light of these developments, I’m foregoing 100 percent of my salary, effective immediately, for the next six months.

We are in discussions with the White House and Congress regarding the support they can provide to help us through this period. I’m optimistic we will receive their support. That said, the form and value is unpredictable, and we can’t put our company’s future at risk waiting on aid from our government.

Above all, nothing is more important than the care, safety and health of our customers and each other. That includes the many steps we are taking to keep our planes and facilities clean and disinfected, as well as our never-ending commitment to flight safety even among these distractions. We need to assure our customers it is safe to fly in all respects, now more than ever. We also understand the need for social distancing as a means to protect our customers and each other, and we encourage all of our people to be mindful of every opportunity to reduce the risk of transmission at work and in your daily lives. This is a severe crisis.

I know many of the newer members of the Delta family have never experienced this level of uncertainty in our business. Your veteran colleagues will tell you that we have been through turbulent times before, and what has always carried us through has been our commitment to our values, our culture and each other. I am confident that we will emerge from this crisis as a strong, trusted global brand that truly connects the world like no other. And we will be stronger for having gone through this experience.

I continue to be honored and humbled to lead this team. I will give you another update early next week. Thank you for all that you are doing, and will continue to do in the days ahead, to care for the Delta family and our customers.

Ed

Yep.  

   

Kinda glad I'm flying boxes for now

Wonder what all airlines cash reserves are?
I imagine DL's and WN's are pretty good.

Me too!

I am in Japan right now, and it is eerily quiet with most public venues closed. They have even closed the gym at the hotel.

AA said they will start flying smaller widebodys to jp later, I think in June. Does that mean the 78-8?

Just curious how the Kalitta Air pilots are fairing, as they were flying plane loads of suspected sick passengers from Asia to the states. The cabin air recirc systems on the 747 for a pacific flight would have everyone breathing the same air in short order.

My friend at K4 said those aircraft had special systems rigged. That said, I don't know how you ensure that the aircraft was disinfected afterwards.

With occasional doom.

The low fuel prices will help a lot.

Let’s just hope a cure is found soon.

With over 5k pilots junior to me, I'm not all that worried, but who knows.  Then again, I could easily live off just my part time pay at the Guard (house/car paid off), and live quite well with a few months of orders thrown in here and there.  That said, I think these unprecedented times and I'd fully expect some big bailouts for the airlines.  If any one of the big 3 failed, it would have a devastating impact on the economy when everyone starts flying again.  These are some crazy times!

I’d tend to non-concur on the criticality of any single company, let alone any single airline, to post COVID recovery.

Well I'm told we're too vital to the economy to actually go on strike

That and the airlines are currently meeting with the president about $$$$ options.

Yeah, about that.

We're going to have to show pain, just like last time.

Funny, the banks didn't put several thousand on the street to get a bailout.

That's what Clinton told us back in 1997.

Right, I don't agree with it either.  The only change in the landscape is that we had quite a few major airlines back then, not that I think that should ever have any bearing on whether we can strike or not.

Yep he did, and President Clinton's Chief of Staff Bruce Lindsey read NWA's management the riot act at a hotel in Minneapolis where the negotiations were being held. I know, I was just outside the open door and heard the whole one sided conversation. We were headed back to work shortly after on the 15th day of the strike.

When the system average paid schedule was 82 hours, and just dropping to minimum guarantee, that gets you 20%, the rest will come from the small jet partner airlines.

Well, if the Big 3 legacies take all of the bailout money and leave nothing for anyone, it will kind of prove that point forever.

MCO TSA has the Coronas now.

Alaska Air Group has $1.5B in cash, $400M line of credit, and another $2.5B in borrowing power against assets.  Given the domestic nature of the flying, no Europe or Asia, they may fare better than some others.

I'm anticipating a 14 day national suspension of passenger service as part of a greater national lockdown.

Exemptions for cargo for critical supply chains, aeromedical evac, LEO and other critical operations.

United announced a 50% reduction in service for April and May.

Yeah- it's gonna suck for everyone at an airline and I fear it's gonna carry over into GA as well.

I foresee the feds implementing SCATANA like what happened after 9/11, virtually grounding everyone again.

I woke up to this email from the APA.  We'll see how it works out.

I doubt any of the short term leaves will be offered to my bid status, or seniority but I'd jump all over taking the summer off for 55 hours/month pay.  They "payment plan buyout" for the 62-64 year old guys seems like a pretty sweet deal.

APA INFORMATION HOTLINE

This is APA President CA Eric Ferguson with the APA Information Hotline for Sunday, March 15.

APA BOARD OF DIRECTORS APPROVES LOA-20-001 – NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19): The APA Board of Directors convened a voting conference call this evening at 7 p.m. Central. Following a briefing by APA Negotiating Committee Chairman CA John Karam and Director of Pilot Negotiations and Contract Administration Mark Myers, the board voted to approve Letter of Agreement-20-001 – Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). I wholeheartedly concur with the board’s decision.

LOA-20-001 has two primary provisions: Pay Protection for pilots impacted by COVID-19, and incentivized Voluntary Leaves of Absence. I encourage everyone to read the full text of the LOA, but here is a 30,000-foot view of the agreement.

Pay Protection:

Pilots who are placed in quarantine based on concerns related to COVID-19 or who are diagnosed with COVID-19 will be pay protected during the duration of the evaluation, treatment, or quarantine.
Pay protection also applies to pilots who self-quarantine due to a family member being diagnosed with COVID-19.
Pilots who call in sick and are subsequently diagnosed with COVID-19 will have their sick time restored to their bank and will be pay protected.
Voluntary Leaves of Absence:

Three different voluntary Leaves of Absence will be offered. The special voluntary leaves are designed to reduce temporary pilot overages caused by current circumstances.

Voluntary Extended Leaves of Absence (“VELOA”): A VELOA will be an unpaid leave; however, the pilot will continue to accrue Length of Service (LOS), will continue to have access to employee benefits at active pilot rates, and will retain travel privileges similar to an Active pilot. These leaves may be up to 12 months in duration.
Voluntary Short-Term Leaves of Absence (“VSTLOA”): Pilots who take a VSTLOA will be paid 55 credited hours for the duration of the leave. Leaves will be 1, 3, or 6 months long. The pilot will continue to accrue sick and vacation, be eligible for all benefits at the same rates as active pilots, and retain travel benefits. Pay for the 55 hours will be eligible for 401(k) contributions and profit-sharing calculations. Pilots on a VSTLOA will be required to maintain currency but will have no other flying obligations.
Voluntary Permanent Leave of Absence (“VPLOA”): Pilots between the ages of 62 and 65 will be eligible for a VPLOA. VPLOA pilots will be paid 50 hours per month until age 65. VPLOA pilots are eligible for all benefits at the same rates as active pilots, and retain travel benefits. Pay for the 50 hours will be eligible for 401(k) contributions and profit-sharing calculations. At retirement, the balance of the pilot’s sick bank will be deposited into a Health Reimbursement Account (HRA) at 40% of the pilot’s applicable hourly rate. A VPLOA pilot will remain in this leave until retirement. This leave is permanent and cannot be changed by either the pilot or the Company.
The details regarding how these three leaves will be proffered to the membership are contained within the LOA, as well as the requirements and particulars of each leave. A detailed Q&A document will follow shortly.

On a related note, I know the possibility of a furlough is on many of your minds. I can tell you that at this point, the likelihood of a furlough has not been suggested by either side. If that changes, we will let you know immediately. One of the main objectives of the LOA ratified today is to mitigate that threat. At this point, it is too early to tell if we are headed down that path, but understand that stopping and reversing the training machinery would be incredibly costly and time-consuming. It is in our mutual interest to avoid reductions by way of furlough.

Furthermore, the airline industry is very different from what it was just before 9/11. Domestic load factors have increased from an average of 60% in 1990, to 69% in 2001, to 85% in 2019. International loads have risen from 67%, to 72%, to 84% over the same timeframe. The point is that the world travels by air far more than in the past, and the industry has become more efficient, so those loads are likely to return after the pandemic has passed (hopefully sooner rather than later). Additionally, furloughed pilots would require five or more weeks to requalify in their aircraft, greatly reducing the ability of American Airlines to resume normal service when the demand inevitably ramps back up.

Know that while we finally have the basic protections necessary for a professional pilot to operate in a fast-evolving public health emergency, your union leadership will continue to operate “all hands on deck” until this crisis has passed, and we will continue updating you daily for as long as the situation remains critical.

Also this evening, Ms. Kay Crews, who serves as parliamentarian for the union’s board meetings and conference calls, outlined procedures for conducting board meetings remotely for the board’s consideration. I recommended that board members assess their personal risk factors in making a decision regarding whether to participate in next week’s special board meeting in person or remotely.

Before recessing this evening, the board voted to approve a motion that states, in part, “due to concerns related to COVID-19, the SBOD scheduled for March 17-19, 2020, be cancelled and replaced with a Voting Conference Call for the same time period.”

In accordance with R2016-11, this hotline message includes a synopsis reflecting all main motions and resolutions that the board addressed. In accordance with R2017-37 Rev 1, audio of the open portions of the conference call will soon be posted to AlliedPilots.org/BODMeetingRecordings.

Fellow pilots, thank you for your engagement and support during these past few weeks. I want you to know that we understand how important information is during a crisis, and we are making every attempt to keep you informed as the situation unfolds.

I'd grab either one of those real fast.  A few months (or years) off with pay would always be welcome.

I can't overstate how nice it is, to not have to go to work.  I haven't missed it for one second.

Alaska cutting flights 10% this month and 15% next month.  Executive pay to 0, hiring freeze, voluntary leaves without pay will start up soon with info coming this week or next on how to sign up.

Best of luck guys. People have been talking about ways to pay you guys back for the pizzas and well wishes during the shut down.

Wait. I thought it was salad days.

It was.  Now it isn't.

As a former CEO of the airline I worked for used to say: "Things change."

The salad was left out in the sun too long I think.