Japan's whole strategy in the Pacific was based upon their decisive victory over the Russian Navy at Tsushima in 1905. The battle was a decisive and victory and right after it Russia came to terms. They figured that that was how you won wars. One decisive battle and when you win it the enemy will beg for peace. The point of Midway was not so much to capture the island but to draw the American Navy into the decisive battle that Japan would, of course, win.
Yamamoto knew that the Japanese Navy was not built for the long term. They simply did not have the capacity to fight a long war. The amount of fuel that that Japanese Navy used during the Aleutian and Midway campaign alone represented the total fuel budget for a year. Their problems were twofold. Their early successes covered a large portion of the planet, but most of the area was water with very little int he war of natural resources. Far flung bases needed to be kept supplied and the Japanese never had a large merchant marine fleet. Most of the goods going into Japan came in on foreign owned ships. When they attacked Pearl Harbor they also did the equivalent of sinking millions of tons of their merchant marine fleet as most of the foreign owned ships were no longer available for them to use.
Their second problem was that the Americans would not surrender. We had been trounced at Pearl Harbor and in the Philippines. Their plan book said we would beg for peace at this point. On top of that the Doolittle Raid was a tremendous slap in the face to the honor of the Japanese Navy. the life of the emperor had been threatened and they totally missed it. They figured that they needed one more decisive battle. Midway, they thought, was too important to the Americans for them to let it go. We would scramble the fleet which would be disabled by air attacks form their carriers and then totally destroyed in a follow up surface engagement.
There is a school of thought that since the itinerary for Yamamoto's flights had been transmitted in a code he knew had been compromised that in visiting the south Pacific he was deliberately choosing an honorable death in battle.
As to Nimitz, he was probably the only Admiral the the US Navy that could have won the war for us in the Pacific. He kept his cool under pressure, was aggressive where a chance at victory could be achieved and commanded the respect and loyalty of those under him. On top of that he could also deal with MacArthur and was not intimidated by him.