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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:36:25 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ServusVeritatis]
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: I agree.. I think that there must have been a large push across and they blew the damn...how bad it hurt Ukraine and it's offensive plans are yet to be seen Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. I suggested a long time ago that Ukraine would cross the Dnepro between Kherson and Nova Kharkovka. The fact that the Russians closed the gates to retain water pretty clearly indicates they were aware of the possibility and used the dam to counter it. At the same time this would be equally obvious to the Ukrainians, who would be closely watching water levels. IMO the UA either feinted a crossing or were in the early stages of conducting a crossing and the Russians blew the dam. I agree.. I think that there must have been a large push across and they blew the damn...how bad it hurt Ukraine and it's offensive plans are yet to be seen Hopefully they had these game planned and have a Plan A, B, and C. If the dam being blown wasn’t accounted for then that would be a huge problem, |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:37:23 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Infantry26: I think it could have been either side, I'm sure the Ukrainians could figure out a way. The only thing certain is that the US tax payers will be on the hook for a new dam.  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Infantry26: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: So I'm not totally willing to discount Ukraine blew the Dam. Although it was under Russian control... and I don't know how they could clandestinely put enough explosives on the structure with Russian forces noticing.... but would blowing the dam; emptying the reservoir and thus the river a few days after, enough that they could send their army across say a bunch shallower or tiny stream of river? Or does hitting the dam have not temporarily lower the level of the river? Doesnt make sense tactically or strategically. The dam was already rigged to blow per reports from last year. The only way I could blame Ukraine is if they attempted some commando raid to disarm the demo and failed. Meh, I'd rather us and Europe rebuild Ukraine than China, which is what will happen if we don't. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:44:13 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendelsbane: Is this the dam where the Ukrainians dropped the roadway last year, and the Russians just filled the space around the spillways with dirt? Or am I thinking of another dam? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendelsbane: Originally Posted By strykr: The dam failed in at least 2 places. The middle section with a large gap, but there is also a missing chunk from the control room which was also sitting higher. Either way, it was destroyed intentionally since the overflow must have been disabled to reach the high levels of water before the dam broke. Is this the dam where the Ukrainians dropped the roadway last year, and the Russians just filled the space around the spillways with dirt? Or am I thinking of another dam? Yes, the Russians claimed that Ukraine has shelled the dam but I have not seen evidence. It seems more likely that the Russians were planning to sabotage the dam for some time since they were in control of it. https://news.yahoo.com/nova-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-russia-kherson-154829368.html |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:46:33 PM EDT
[#4]
What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson.
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:47:08 PM EDT
[#5]
I should prolly just stay in this thread I am gonna end up telling the RuskieBros what I really think of them eventually...
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:53:26 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: So I'm not totally willing to discount Ukraine blew the Dam. Although it was under Russian control... and I don't know how they could clandestinely put enough explosives on the structure with Russian forces noticing.... but would blowing the dam; emptying the reservoir and thus the river a few days after, enough that they could send their army across say a bunch shallower or tiny stream of river? Or does hitting the dam have not temporarily lower the level of the river? I tried to reason out scenarios where UA intentionally did it. My conclusion is there are none. If they did, it would be monumentally stupid. The damage it does to Ukraine is immense, ranging from flood water destruction to crippling water supplies to significant areas of the country. There seem to be concerns about how bad ramifications will be for agriculture. It probably takes a decade to recover from this. There is no temporary tactical advantage that remotely comes close to being worth it, IMO. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 7:59:39 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: I tried to reason out scenarios where UA intentionally did it. My conclusion is there are none. If they did, it would be monumentally stupid. The damage it does to Ukraine is immense, ranging from flood water destruction to crippling water supplies to significant areas of the country. There seem to be concerns about how bad ramifications will be for agriculture. It probably takes a decade to recover from this. There is no temporary tactical advantage that remotely comes close to being worth it, IMO. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: So I'm not totally willing to discount Ukraine blew the Dam. Although it was under Russian control... and I don't know how they could clandestinely put enough explosives on the structure with Russian forces noticing.... but would blowing the dam; emptying the reservoir and thus the river a few days after, enough that they could send their army across say a bunch shallower or tiny stream of river? Or does hitting the dam have not temporarily lower the level of the river? I tried to reason out scenarios where UA intentionally did it. My conclusion is there are none. If they did, it would be monumentally stupid. The damage it does to Ukraine is immense, ranging from flood water destruction to crippling water supplies to significant areas of the country. There seem to be concerns about how bad ramifications will be for agriculture. It probably takes a decade to recover from this. There is no temporary tactical advantage that remotely comes close to being worth it, IMO. On the other hand, it is a solid tactical-level decision for Russia to slow the advance of the AFU and deny the river crossing towards Crimea. Literally drown the south push of the counter offensive in mud. So much so that the ISW has literally called this a probable move last year, and they also said Russia would deny being responsible. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:08:08 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson. Still on the Russian payroll I see. |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:11:39 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Cruise Missles! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CS223: Originally Posted By fadedsun: And we should lend them a submarine to launch them from. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:14:09 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: When you consider that all of freaking Europe needs to drastically increase their defense spending only to protect themselves from Russia, it's no surprise that a bunch of people want the Russian military bled down to nothing. That is the plan friend ... |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:21:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ArmyInfantryVet]
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zam18th: I tried to reason out scenarios where UA intentionally did it. My conclusion is there are none. If they did, it would be monumentally stupid. The damage it does to Ukraine is immense, ranging from flood water destruction to crippling water supplies to significant areas of the country. There seem to be concerns about how bad ramifications will be for agriculture. It probably takes a decade to recover from this. There is no temporary tactical advantage that remotely comes close to being worth it, IMO. I'm with ya. The flooding mucks up the ground and even if you pretend that wasn't the case, the part of the river that is drained still has a meter or so deep mud, so still impassable for any vehicles. So no crossing with or without a river running there. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:23:31 PM EDT
[#12]
🌐 Place: #Nevelske
🗓 Date: 06.2023 🇺🇦 Unit: 59 OMBr 📌 Geolocation: 48.03789, 37.58497 📂 Description: Assault positions, from the first person. South of the village of Nevelske, Donetsk region. ❗️ Source https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/1563
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:25:26 PM EDT
[#13]
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NY, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:26:06 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By doc540: PLEASE STOP QUOTING THE TROLL I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:32:03 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1969iggy: I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. I’ll take an ole fashioned, just don’t look at the thread he started about the dam. |
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NZL
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:37:21 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1969iggy: I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. I just wanted to flag that I have very expensive tastes...
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:37:50 PM EDT
[#17]
So how long will it take to empty the lake and level out the river again? And then the mud to dry?
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:38:34 PM EDT
[#18]
 
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:39:42 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1969iggy: I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. I don't think I have quoted anybody in this thread for at least a month. Since you are buying, I'll take a blue Margarita please.  Attached File |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:44:38 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Give them LRASM  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By HIPPO: /media/mediaFiles/sharedAlbum/tumblr_lka9rhi8aT1qadbq2o1_400_GIF-121.gif I am pretty sure ATACMS has been unlocked. At this point they should get Davy Crockett to fight the eco terrorists. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:50:46 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:51:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: trapsh00ter99]
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendelsbane: Is this the dam where the Ukrainians dropped the roadway last year, and the Russians just filled the space around the spillways with dirt? Or am I thinking of another dam? |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:52:09 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SoCalExile: What's your website? PM me if you don't want to post it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SoCalExile: Originally Posted By Easterner: Originally Posted By ERNURSE: Good Luck My brother, keep your head on a swivel and listen to the experienced guys. Let us know your ok once and awhile. Of course you know I will. As far as looking into where I am, if you don't hear from me, my son's contact info is on my website. Those of you that bought Ukrainian stuff from me know where that is. Don't post that info here please. He will be taking over that email account as well. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:55:46 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Easterner: Apologies to the good guys here. Stressful day saying good byes, listening to explosions in the city. Fuck orcs. En route to the volunteer garrison for more goodbyes and to drop off some gear i don't need to them. Train leaves this afternoon. Can't believe they blew up the dam.  Good luck and be careful. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 8:56:18 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1969iggy: I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. Rye and Water please... |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:02:23 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By B5Sluggo: Rye and Water please... Holy fuck  .
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:03:05 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 1969iggy: I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. m |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:03:05 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. What about the earth shattering kaboom?
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NV, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:10:47 PM EDT
[#29]
Obviously Russia
 Ukraine war: Who stands to gain from blowing up Kakhovka dam? | DW News |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:11:22 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:11:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#31]
The peak of water spillage from the Kakhov reservoir will be until tomorrow morning. In 3-4 days it will begin to subside, and within 10 days all the water will go into the Black Sea.
This was announced by the general director of Ukrhydroenergo. Zelensky, commenting on the consequences of blowing up the dam at the Kakhovskaya HPP, said that there will be big problems with drinking water. We are also talking about non-flooded areas, in particular Dnipro and Zaporizhzhya. In general, the consequences will be clear about a week after the water recedes. https://t.me/newspn/57886 18.30 ... New Kakhovka ... the water stopped rising https://t.me/supernova_plus/20922 |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:14:05 PM EDT
[#32]
I can't decide whether I should be disappointed in how many posters here I thought were intelligent, or relieved to know how wrong I was. It's disappointing, though.
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:14:21 PM EDT
[#33]
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NY, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:17:20 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson. Very sad for me to see. I used to like watching him, and agreed with his analysis more often than not. Then came the war in Ukraine, and he lost his marbles. |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:20:17 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: I just wanted to flag that I have very expensive tastes... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheLurker: Originally Posted By 1969iggy: I'll buy everyone a drink who hasn't responded or quoted him/them in the next 20 pages. I just wanted to flag that I have very expensive tastes... Free Drinks will be provided in Murrells Inlet, SC on August 24th or 25th. Transportation not included... Whatever you want, just don't mention or quote the troll. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:21:01 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: I'm with ya. The flooding mucks up the ground and even if you pretend that wasn't the case, the part of the river that is drained still has a meter or so deep mud, so still impassable for any vehicles. So no crossing with or without a river running there. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: Originally Posted By Zam18th: I tried to reason out scenarios where UA intentionally did it. My conclusion is there are none. If they did, it would be monumentally stupid. The damage it does to Ukraine is immense, ranging from flood water destruction to crippling water supplies to significant areas of the country. There seem to be concerns about how bad ramifications will be for agriculture. It probably takes a decade to recover from this. There is no temporary tactical advantage that remotely comes close to being worth it, IMO. I'm with ya. The flooding mucks up the ground and even if you pretend that wasn't the case, the part of the river that is drained still has a meter or so deep mud, so still impassable for any vehicles. So no crossing with or without a river running there. Yeah good point. I imagine mil vehicles would really dig into silt too. I sure as hell wouldn't want to be a planner for a crossing and end up sending men into a newly formed marsh or something. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:21:55 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: I'm gonna need grain alcohol after reading GD. Holy fuck .Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By trapsh00ter99: Originally Posted By B5Sluggo: Rye and Water please... Holy fuck .Root beer or prune juice here. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:22:08 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: Originally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. This is why I love this place.
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:23:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Zam18th]
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: So how long will it take to empty the lake and level out the river again? And then the mud to dry? If I come across it again I'll post it but going off of memory UA said something like No clue on the mud. ETA: Beat. See Prime's post above.
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:25:30 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: I agree.. I think that there must have been a large push across and they blew the damn...how bad it hurt Ukraine and it's offensive plans are yet to be seen Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. I suggested a long time ago that Ukraine would cross the Dnepro between Kherson and Nova Kharkovka. The fact that the Russians closed the gates to retain water pretty clearly indicates they were aware of the possibility and used the dam to counter it. At the same time this would be equally obvious to the Ukrainians, who would be closely watching water levels. IMO the UA either feinted a crossing or were in the early stages of conducting a crossing and the Russians blew the dam. I agree.. I think that there must have been a large push across and they blew the damn...how bad it hurt Ukraine and it's offensive plans are yet to be seen Given that Ukraine would have to be monitoring the dam and the water level as a part of their planning, I doubt they were surprised or that they were counting on crossing the Dnepro as their primary/only plan. Particularly when it’s been pointed out that Ukraine knew the dam was mined in October of 2022. Maybe the Ukrainians staged a commando raid to take the dam which failed and the Russians blew it. Who knows. Crossing the Dnepro might’ve been their dream/best case plan and it still might happen, but probably not until fall or even winter. The Russians may have bought themselves some short term relief but they probably made more significant problems for themselves by granting the west a free escalation card. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:32:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: PolarBear416]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: I think the Russians just fucked up like they usually do. I think they intended to blow up part of the dam and create flooding downstream. But I don't think they intended to completely wipe out the dam. The stupid fuckers likely used 100x more explosives than necessary out of ignorance, and in doing so, probably drown hundreds or thousands of their own troops. You can never underestimate just how fucking stupid the average Russian is. They are the dumbest motherfuckers on earth. A controlled flood could be achieved just by opening the sluice gate. No need for explosives. And once you blow a little hole in a dam, that hole gets bigger very quickly. Plus it's wasn't a little hole, it was a power plant building sized hole .. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:33:01 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Infantry26: I think it could have been either side, I'm sure the Ukrainians could figure out a way. The only thing certain is that the US tax payers will be on the hook for a new dam. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Infantry26: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: So I'm not totally willing to discount Ukraine blew the Dam. Although it was under Russian control... and I don't know how they could clandestinely put enough explosives on the structure with Russian forces noticing.... but would blowing the dam; emptying the reservoir and thus the river a few days after, enough that they could send their army across say a bunch shallower or tiny stream of river? Or does hitting the dam have not temporarily lower the level of the river? Doesnt make sense tactically or strategically. The dam was already rigged to blow per reports from last year. The only way I could blame Ukraine is if they attempted some commando raid to disarm the demo and failed. Actually Europe has been making the pledges to rebuild Ukraine, |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:33:55 PM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:35:50 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson. I made it about 15 seconds and had to stop watching. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:36:47 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Actually Europe has been making the pledges to rebuild Ukraine, Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Infantry26: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By ArmyInfantryVet: So I'm not totally willing to discount Ukraine blew the Dam. Although it was under Russian control... and I don't know how they could clandestinely put enough explosives on the structure with Russian forces noticing.... but would blowing the dam; emptying the reservoir and thus the river a few days after, enough that they could send their army across say a bunch shallower or tiny stream of river? Or does hitting the dam have not temporarily lower the level of the river? Doesnt make sense tactically or strategically. The dam was already rigged to blow per reports from last year. The only way I could blame Ukraine is if they attempted some commando raid to disarm the demo and failed. Actually Europe has been making the pledges to rebuild Ukraine, As well has the frozen bank holdings of Russia in several countries. Billions. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:39:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RockNwood]
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: I made it about 15 seconds and had to stop watching. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By ludder093: What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson. I made it about 15 seconds and had to stop watching. Yep. Just cleared out several more Twitter followings of folks promoting this Episode 1 that starts right in on the dam and Ukes done it diatribe. Tucker has zero facts on this subject but sure puts in the time to rant about the corrupt Ukes. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:45:06 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: What a cunt i an beyond done with Cucker Carlson. Dunno man he's been right about everything so far, still wondering the apocalyptic wasteland that was America since the diesel ran out last November and everything shut down.
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NV, USA
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:45:27 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: Originally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. I saw a sat photo in one of the twitter links this morning dated the 5th. The curved section of road and 3 or 4 gates were missing, power house was not damaged. I'll look for it again. |
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Posted: 6/6/2023 9:49:02 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By general_cluster: Originally Posted By MKSheppard: I'm circling back to this theory: The Russians were filling the reservoir to overflowing -- they got to 17 metres (50+ ft) over the normal water levels; so that they would have a water weapon to use against any Ukrainian river crossing -- let a sizeable force cross the river and then open the floodgates and trap them there. Only the problem is, to avoid water "topping" the dam, leading to total failure (see Oroville dam -- it didn't fail, but was pretty dangerous), you have to leave a sluice gate or two open to maintain equilibrium. I think what happened; was that soviet era construction standards combined with Russian incompetence led to that sluice gate failing; followed by a rapid "unzipping" of the dam as a cascading failure occurred. On the surface, that is a very reasonable theory. But as an engineer that built a business out of figuring out why things failed, I can tell you it is not supported by the images we are seeing. The most obvious tell is the missing sections of the powerhouse, which would not have been impacted by a sluice gate failure. Your theory has far more substantiation that what passes for critical thinking outside of the boat. The river level got to 17 meters above sea level (almost 17.5 ASL I think), not 17 higher than normal. If the charts are accurate it fluctuates between 15.5 and 16.5 meters ASL. |
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