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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:14:50 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Prime: Drone shootdown over Odesa
LOL |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:15:39 PM EDT
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:16:07 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Thank you. My illustrious Mil. career maxed out at E4 so I only know "chow hall" and "PX"...oh and "PMCS", lots of that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: lol, it's actually part of an equation that mission planners use to figure out how many anti ship cruise missiles or weapons should be employed against enemy surface ships. The point being is that equation can constantly change. If I can't use electronic counter measures, if I have no decoy systems, or Harms to employ, and only the anti ship missiles, I'll have use a crap ton of them to overwhelm the individual ships fire control systems to get enough through to destroy the ship. Take the Moscow for example. Before this war, it was assumed she would require 4 hits from Harpoons to destroy her. However, because of her missile systems CIWS, etc. if I wanted to overwhelm her to get those hits, I'd have to use a lot more than 4 missiles as she tries to shoot them down until what is left can impact her, perhaps over a dozen would be used. That's expensive. However, if she's being jammed, and cheap $30,000 decoys are used to fool the ships radars and waste time firing on false targets, I can get away with much less anti ship missiles being used. In the case of LRASM in the example above, I may only need one to do the job. Thank you. My illustrious Mil. career maxed out at E4 so I only know "chow hall" and "PX"...oh and "PMCS", lots of that. It's no problem, I'm glad to be able to help explain some of this stuff.  I find it fascinating.
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USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:16:22 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Capta: There is an extremely well-known problem with low-post count individuals wading in with pro-Russian talking points. I think a lot of SHILLS who have not participated in the last 2,000 pages of this thread have suddenly materialized, alleging that our national security is being critically compromised by handing Ukraine 16 HIMARS out of 400. That’s what I think. Seriously take a step back for a minute. Your calling R0N 'comrade' who's a 'random person with an "internet connection, access to google and an agenda"' and DasJuden a 'shill' is ridiculous lol. You clearly have no idea who Juden is. "Low post count individuals" shilling? Earlier this year you were an account from 2009 with a post count in the hundreds making pro-Ukranian posts. I'm not calling you a paid Ukranian shill or a hacked account or anything like that, why can't you discuss things without stooping to that? |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:19:29 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By trapsh00ter99: I think this is kind of chicken or egg scenario. Russia rolls up Ukraine in a month, they are a much stronger army and in a much more threatening position towards Europe. Sure they still have all their issues, but they are emboldened, and the risk is undoubtedly higher for Europe. We can say now they conventionally aren't a threat to Europe cause they are getting ass kicked in Ukraine. Hindsight and all. How would the Russian Army do against an enemy that was not cohesive and almost unanimously united against them like Ukraine? Not to give too much credit to Ukraine but they are punching way above their weight. In the 8 years of attacking Ukraine, Russia has created a united population with a warrior ethos. Russia totally underestimated them and lost most of their tier 1 units and gear and are now ineptly flailing. But, we shouldnt assume that everything the Russians will do in the future will be equally inept with shockingly poor planning and execution or against a united enemy that has been "work hardened" for 8 years. Assuming there is something left of Russia when all is said and done. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:19:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
Kherson footage coming out.
BMP rolling into a town that's been freshly burnt down. https://t.me/mysiagin/16430 "Location Unknown"
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:28:11 PM EDT
Expect more himars barge strikes soon.
 
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:31:13 PM EDT
"Ukraine military collects 5,000 Russian rockets to be used as court evidence"  Ukraine military collects 5,000 Russian rockets to be used as court evidence |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:33:16 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By kncook: The left always whined….but look at GD and the “lifelong conservatives” who constantly attack the “US military Industrial Complex” while regurgitating the Leftists Code Pink slogan of “blood for gas/oil”. Hell they are even writing books about draft dodging |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:39:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:40:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By toaster:
I was gonna put that in a "I looked at this so now you have to" post. But no, I didn't |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:45:19 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By toaster:
Ukrainian cows >> Afganistani goats? |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:48:47 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By CharlieR: Discussions about how effective the Russians are miss the bigger picture, and the elephant in the room. Power equals force times will. You can have all the money on weapons you like, but without will, build more, buy more, you don't have power anyone respects. Jimmy Carter didn't have that much smaller a military then Reagan, but power was worlds apart. After WWII the US defined Europe as its area of interest. George Kennan, and his white paper NSC68, argued correctly that your credibility and will is called into question if you stand aside for Communism. If you don't show will worldwide, countries that are in your area of interest will question your will to support them. It all matters, you cant put a boundary on will and credibility. That's why you fight Communists in Korea, to show resolve to NATO that you'll fight for them. The interest or lack of interest of country X is irrelevant. You amass as much power as you can, anyway you can, to achieve the effects you want when Iran wants a bomb or China wants Taiwan. They respect capital P POWER. Get some. Get more. The only thing that matters is how much you can accumulate as cheaply as you can. You pull out of places when they suck power out of you. Its an investment. A proxy war is a great way for a democracy like the US to amass power because we have lots of free stuff, and the proxy has lots of motivation, and it pays to be a winner. The US was rightly skittish in the early weeks as we have dissipated power spending resources supporting losers....Iraq, Afghanistan, looking at you. And this administration was rightly perceived as weak as hell after the Kabul farce. So they needed this one. Supporting the UA is an outstandingly awesome idea as it expands US power without risking us where we are weak...the lack of willpower of the American people who want to go to the mall and not risk a drop of their blood for anything. That big ass chicken will come home to roost with a giant sized amount of vengeance when the US loses power. That's not a world you want to live in. The goal is to win as much as you can, as cheaply as you can, to expand the perception of your will and force to show power and get people to knuckle under to what you want, without a fight, out of fear of your power, setting the conditions for your economy. Pick your fights. Desert Storm was pretty good. Ukraine is good. Vietnam and Afghanistan, bad. Ukraine is great. We should support the hell out of Ukraine and monkey stomp the Russians. Because its good for us. It is, arguably, a lot like poker. When you want something, really bad, like bad actors to get in line, you bluff with force and they don't question your will; they submit without a fight. But if you want the world to respect your level of will, you have to win some hands and you need a track record of success. It doesn't really matter what hand, the effect is in your opponents mind, between his damn ears. Any hand will do, any fight will do. Just win, baby. Fold based on "if it will work" not "where is it" Our foreign policy fiascos the last fifty years has been staying too long with weak hands, not where or where not we were. My argument is we should be pushing ATCAMS and the kitchen sink and anything else, as monkey stomping the Rus with the Ukrainian army sets us up for success with respect to some bigger problems we have on the horizon, especially seeing our economy is sucking due to basic selfishness and stupidity. We have less margin for error and we NEED the Rus monkeystomped. Because the world is watching, especially China and Iran and Taiwan and Israel, and we can. Which is mostly all the matters. What we can, and cant, not what want or don't not want to do. Here, we can. So go do. And frogboiling isn't it, either. Burn that frog with a blowtorch and mail toasted frog parts to Xi. Let him smell some smoke. When that SOB longingly looks across the Strait of Formosa and gets silly ideas, and when the Supreme Leader thinks about building a nuke and firing it at Tel Aviv, they already know what our DoD budget looks like. They need to remember what our will looks like, which quite frankly has been called into question, and what blowtorched frog smells like. That saves us money and lives and resources later. Looking at silly maps and drawing lines and putting Ukraine on the wrong side of it is foolish. That's called credibility, and smarter men then us figured this out 75 years ago. Good read. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:49:29 PM EDT
Lots of T-62s
Kherson region. Abandoned Russian positions and a completely burned antediluvian T-62 tank. Everything is as usual: in the trenches of the "Russians" there is a solid garbage can and a pigpen.
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:50:03 PM EDT
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WI, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:51:32 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Capta: You tell me, you are the one alleging there is a problem. Please link to evidence supporting that opinion. Also make sure to address how this is in any way different than any other weapon system, all of which have availability rates and issues.  I could almost think you're thread-sliding, with the persistent off-topic nonsense. Let's talk about action in Ukraine, not tertiary domestic defense policy concerns. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:53:09 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By elcope:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfsclxhWIAEnyd5?format=jpg&name=large |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:54:57 PM EDT
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:57:39 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By ludder093: I want to see the video. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By elcope:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfsclxhWIAEnyd5?format=jpg&name=large Apparently from an exercise in Poland.
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:57:41 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By spydercomonkey: Sadly everything I've read about Taiwan is that they are not nearly as hardcore about their defense as they should be. I'm not sure they will put up the same level of national resistance that Ukraine has. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Originally Posted By apr67: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Anyway, if the Chinese get a foothold in Taiwan, it will probably end up looking very similar as the fight in Ukraine. Taiwan is about the size of the territory that Russia holds (or maybe held, depending on how good of a day UA is having..)in Ukraine. I don't know that the comparisons are workable, it would be I think a very very different conflict. Sadly everything I've read about Taiwan is that they are not nearly as hardcore about their defense as they should be. I'm not sure they will put up the same level of national resistance that Ukraine has. It is my understanding, that part of the problem in Taiwan is the result of China's decades long meddling in and attempting to subvert the Taiwanese government and citizens belief that they are a separate political entity. A SME can correct me if I'm wrong. I believe, like Ukraine, a war against China will harden Taiwanese belief and bring a stronger nationalistic belief into focus if Taiwan, as a nation, survives the war. In regard to the ground war vs air/ naval war argument if we fight China over Taiwan. I think it is safe to say, it all depends on China and what they choose to do to secure Taiwan. If they do not attack anyone but Taiwan, and only hit U.S. forces directly engaged in the conflict area, then there will be no ground war for the U.S. However, the moment one bomb or missile strikes any other island in the first island chain, it is game on for the U.S. Army, and the old girl better have her war face on. The Chinese have many tools and advantages, IMHO, the biggest advantage they have are, proximity to Taiwan and their numerous long range ground launched missiles and PLAAF, using long range anti-ship missiles to strike our fleet and bases. We had the same problem in the cold war against the USSR. In every exercise our fleets were severely damaged and a lot of reinforcements and supplies were destroyed before they ever reached Europe because of their bombers and long range missiles, while their proximity allowed quick reinforcement. We will see the same thing happen in a war with China. China, I believe, at seeing the success of U.S. weapons in Ukraine, have publicly announced an increase to their defense spending and apparently upped the date by which they want to retake Taiwan. I believe, and again SME correct me if I'm wrong, this is to try to take Taiwan before we can replace what we've given to Ukraine and bring more updated IAD systems on line. However, the U.S., and our allies, are not without tools and advantages either, and time is on our side if we act quickly. Hopefully, the war in Ukraine has opened enough eyes to the fact that the U.S. Army has been nappin' on the job when it comes to artillery, both tube and missile, and air defense systems because, well... we have the U.S. Air Force. The U.S. Air Force has done a great job overall and American sailors and soldiers haven't been without air supremacy since WWII, we're spoiled in that regard, and development and deployment of large scale integrated air defense systems has suffered. That is changing, but the Ukraine war has shown us that we need to, not only up our game, but to step up the pace of both procurement and deployment, because wave attacks by long range cruise missiles and suicide drones are hard to deal with. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:58:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093: I want to see the video.
ETA- like a politician talking about fiscal responsibility
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:58:41 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By elcope: Apparently from an exercise in Poland.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By elcope: Originally Posted By ludder093: Originally Posted By elcope:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfsclxhWIAEnyd5?format=jpg&name=large Apparently from an exercise in Poland.
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:59:18 PM EDT
  
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Posted: 10/22/2022 2:59:42 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Prime: I was gonna put that in a "I looked at this so now you have to" post. But no, I didn't Dude, you've been on point with posting some great (albeit brutal) footage from twitter posts over the last couple days. Keep up the posting!
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:00:24 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I dont think anyone (I cannot speak for everyone including R0N) is arguing that we should NOT give them to Ukraine. Most of us, including me, think we should give the UA 50 HIMARS and ATACMS, F16's and Patriots. But some folks, who do have inside knowledge, ARE concerned with the US stocks of ordinance. I personally do not trust the Xiden admin to have the USA as their #1 priority, either because of malice or incompetence. I think that the point of certain posters is exactly that - to prevent, limit, or mitigate what we send to Ukraine. It’s being argued by certain posters — and reinforced by other low-post-count posters who have not participated at all in a 3000-page thread, but come in to echo the opinion — that 16 of 400 HIMARS is unacceptably weakening our defense wrt a future hypothetical war with China. There is clearly an agenda present. Whether those individuals are American dupes or paid foreign trolls is not relevant. What is relevant is to recognize the pattern. We still have freedom of speech thank God, so shills can come in and post what they like, but it also means that it’s up to us to counter the malicious disinformation of enemy state actors. The better shills learn to take advantage of the fact that we as Americans generally treat online discourse as sincere until unequivocally proven otherwise. Start out with “a concern” that our US interests are being harmed. Then work in more talking points. Ultimately people get what’s going on, but it takes a while. You are also repeating an unfounded statement inserted into the conversation by one of these individuals - that certain folks have “inside knowledge” that makes their opinion more valid. Please post the proof of that. What are their bona fides that prove they have inside .mil info aren’t just a shill with access to google and an agenda? Remember, the first notable contribution of this poster in the thread was to repeat “Send your sons!” to several other posters. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:05:39 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By elcope:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfsclxhWIAEnyd5?format=jpg&name=large Fucking rad pic. 
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:07:48 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By toaster: Dude, you've been on point with posting some great (albeit brutal) footage from twitter posts over the last couple days. Keep up the posting! Nobody else listens Now here's a drunk Russian riding a bear.
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:11:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: CharlieR]
I know this has been seen before, but this is tactically new. If you've seen it, and you probably have, disregard. But it deserves a look-see.
We have squad on squad fighting, at hand grenade range, with basically a squad-level UAV dropping ordnance in support of the close fight. I'm sure its technically a platoon-or company asset, probably 500-1000 meters back behind this fight is the operator, but this is the lowest level of synchronization I've seen. Its not clear to me what the hell the guy is doing at 1:07, but the fact he hears the UAV and is waving and giving it a thumbs up means there is some sort of comms and some sort of synchronization going on. So. Squad level UAV dropping ordnance and delivering fire support in support of CQB. We knew it was heading this way, and figured it was happening somewhere, but hadn't yet seen it. At the squad level its not like you have ADA to do anything about this. This is significant; a new and dangerous development.  Failed To Load Title |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:17:57 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Capta: You forgot to link numbers of M113s in storage though, and however will we defeat China without sufficient M113s? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By NEXT23: Originally Posted By R0N: How many LRASMs and NSMs are we gettng a year and how does that number compare to the firing doctrine to conduct a threat task group take down? So are you saying we are being weakened on purpose? Being weakened out of necessity, hoping we will have time to catch our breathe in 2 years? Or I just need to buy stock in the MIC Don’t know if it is deliberate, un-intended or wishful thinking that nothing will happen between now and the ability to rebuild. The ability to rebuilt what? Our stocks of M113s? Our stocks of 1991 HARM missiles? Please provide links to hard data showing that critical modern weapons systems/munitions are being drawn below critical levels. USNI Breaking Defense CSiS China will be a naval/air war. Stingers, Javelins, and even GMLRS wont be major players. But by all means keep trying to sow discord, comrade. You asked for links, and you got links. You forgot to link numbers of M113s in storage though, and however will we defeat China without sufficient M113s? 113s are irrelevant and so are the few M142s. What is relevant is the number of M30s and M31s and to a lesser extent the total numbers of FGM148s and M795s. There maybe a concern about M777A2s as they pulled guns from active batteries before their replacement M142s or ROGUE-fires are available |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:22:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 7empest]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: 113s are irrelevant and so are the few M142s. What is relevant is the number of M30s and M31s and to a lesser extent the total numbers of FGM148s and M795s. There maybe a concern about M777A2s as they pulled guns from active batteries before their replacement M142s or ROGUE-fires are available All I want to see is a Vulcan smoke a Hind. ETA: Or a Frogfoot that would also be acceptable |
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USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:22:54 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffrv8cfXEAIQAAU?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfrwEz0XkAc_ZMk?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfrwRF6WYAYebtM?format=jpg&name=small So is wrong here? Limiting their ability to retreat? I wouldn't know but it seems like they're trying to funnel vehicles into roads that have artillery zeroed in. |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:23:41 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: We haven’t been in this weak a position since 1941. Fortunately people seem to be seeing the truth and even the left sees a need to correct this problem. I’m sort of mystified by this point of view. We spend about as much as the rest of the world combined does on the military, we have literally the most modern and best equipped and trained military in the world, bases and forward deployed units in Europe and Asia, and the largest and 2nd largest air forces in the world. Calling us unprepared is silly. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:34:32 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By panthermark: Well, the spot wasn't aimed at the players, it is aimed at the fans. Demographic of the fans are different than the players. Being that the NBA cared enough to actually MAKE the spot in the first place, I'm not following your logic, especially since it is a former NBA player FROM Kyiv making the spot. You've changed from "audience" to "players". How many "players" from any of our professional teams give a shit? And do you care what professional players think in the first place? After the BLM and take a knee shit, any self respecting non-minority wouldn't watch that horse shit |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:35:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:37:26 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By Drakich: I’m sort of mystified by this point of view. We spend about as much as the rest of the world combined does on the military, we have literally the most modern and best equipped and trained military in the world, bases and forward deployed units in Europe and Asia, and the largest and 2nd largest air forces in the world. Calling us unprepared is silly. We don’t get for our dollar what other countries get for their money, and they hide their expenditures well, and they don’t have to build a force that can cross the world to get to the fight. If you adjust for the first two China is closing in on US expenditure, and we can only bring a fraction of our forces to bear across the worlds largest ocean whereas they can concentrate their forces. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:38:41 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Flogger23m: So is wrong here? Limiting their ability to retreat? I wouldn't know but it seems like they're trying to funnel vehicles into roads that have artillery zeroed in. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Flogger23m: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffrv8cfXEAIQAAU?format=jpg&name=900x900 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfrwEz0XkAc_ZMk?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfrwRF6WYAYebtM?format=jpg&name=small So is wrong here? Limiting their ability to retreat? I wouldn't know but it seems like they're trying to funnel vehicles into roads that have artillery zeroed in. That would be the general idea, but these obstacles seem pretty small for that purpose, especially against tanks. They aren't dug in or anything so I wonder how artillery or clearing charges might easily create a breach. They still have the connection on them so you can easily tow them away with a handy armored vehicle. Dragons teeth in ww2 seem much larger, and are deeper than two lines. The Ukrainians are calling it the Toblerone line, as it will melt like chocolate.  Siegfried line. 
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:45:45 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By m35ben: At some point Russia will claim memes are made in Nazi bioweapons labs run by NATO. Are you claiming that they aren't? |
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USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:46:02 PM EDT
[Last Edit: HIPPO]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ludder093:
About fucking time. Come on Erdogan, we’re waiting. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:50:01 PM EDT
 Advertising of #durex in Paris: "Without a condom, you not only run the risk of infecting yourself with dangerous diseases, but also of giving birth to an imbecile."
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:53:39 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Erno86]
"'To blow ourselves up but not to surrender': Captive Russian soldier told about commanders orders"  Failed To Load Title |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:57:24 PM EDT
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:57:58 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By R0N: I hope in 10-20 years, all of you can say “I told you so” because I am wrong but to quote President Obama, don’t underestimate Joes ability to fuck things up. Joe's involvement turned to embarrassment when his contribution was to offer evacuation to Zelenski. Once the "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" speech hit, people other than Joe stepped in to prevent any further embarrassment. I think this is far enough out if his control that he can no longer fuck this up. China may be another matter altogether, though... |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 3:59:38 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By CharlieR: Discussions about how effective the Russians are miss the bigger picture, and the elephant in the room. Power equals force times will. You can have all the money on weapons you like, but without will, build more, buy more, you don't have power anyone respects. Jimmy Carter didn't have that much smaller a military then Reagan, but power was worlds apart. After WWII the US defined Europe as its area of interest. George Kennan, and his white paper NSC68, argued correctly that your credibility and will is called into question if you stand aside for Communism. If you don't show will worldwide, countries that are in your area of interest will question your will to support them. It all matters, you cant put a boundary on will and credibility. That's why you fight Communists in Korea, to show resolve to NATO that you'll fight for them. The interest or lack of interest of country X is irrelevant. You amass as much power as you can, anyway you can, to achieve the effects you want when Iran wants a bomb or China wants Taiwan. They respect capital P POWER. Get some. Get more. The only thing that matters is how much you can accumulate as cheaply as you can. You pull out of places when they suck power out of you. Its an investment. A proxy war is a great way for a democracy like the US to amass power because we have lots of free stuff, and the proxy has lots of motivation, and it pays to be a winner. The US was rightly skittish in the early weeks as we have dissipated power spending resources supporting losers....Iraq, Afghanistan, looking at you. And this administration was rightly perceived as weak as hell after the Kabul farce. So they needed this one. Supporting the UA is an outstandingly awesome idea as it expands US power without risking us where we are weak...the lack of willpower of the American people who want to go to the mall and not risk a drop of their blood for anything. That big ass chicken will come home to roost with a giant sized amount of vengeance when the US loses power. That's not a world you want to live in. The goal is to win as much as you can, as cheaply as you can, to expand the perception of your will and force to show power and get people to knuckle under to what you want, without a fight, out of fear of your power, setting the conditions for your economy. Pick your fights. Desert Storm was pretty good. Ukraine is good. Vietnam and Afghanistan, bad. Ukraine is great. We should support the hell out of Ukraine and monkey stomp the Russians. Because its good for us. It is, arguably, a lot like poker. When you want something, really bad, like bad actors to get in line, you bluff with force and they don't question your will; they submit without a fight. But if you want the world to respect your level of will, you have to win some hands and you need a track record of success. It doesn't really matter what hand, the effect is in your opponents mind, between his damn ears. Any hand will do, any fight will do. Just win, baby. Fold based on "if it will work" not "where is it" Our foreign policy fiascos the last fifty years has been staying too long with weak hands, not where or where not we were. My argument is we should be pushing ATCAMS and the kitchen sink and anything else, as monkey stomping the Rus with the Ukrainian army sets us up for success with respect to some bigger problems we have on the horizon, especially seeing our economy is sucking due to basic selfishness and stupidity. We have less margin for error and we NEED the Rus monkeystomped. Because the world is watching, especially China and Iran and Taiwan and Israel, and we can. Which is mostly all the matters. What we can, and cant, not what want or don't not want to do. Here, we can. So go do. And frogboiling isn't it, either. Burn that frog with a blowtorch and mail toasted frog parts to Xi. Let him smell some smoke. When that SOB longingly looks across the Strait of Formosa and gets silly ideas, and when the Supreme Leader thinks about building a nuke and firing it at Tel Aviv, they already know what our DoD budget looks like. They need to remember what our will looks like, which quite frankly has been called into question, and what blowtorched frog smells like. That saves us money and lives and resources later. Looking at silly maps and drawing lines and putting Ukraine on the wrong side of it is foolish. That's called credibility, and smarter men then us figured this out 75 years ago. I agree with all or nearly all of that. Where I will disagree, or maybe not disagree but expand, is that I have argued for the whole thread that the west is FAR more ruthless than given credit for, particularly in this forum where it’s often convenient for social reasons to believe that the west is spineless. The west’s war aim is to grind Russia to powder and the question is how to accomplish that. IMO you don’t accomplish that by making their situation untenable too soon. GMLRS and ultimately ATACMS introduced too early and in overwhelming force would’ve ejected Russia from Ukraine but with FAR less damage to the Russian war machine, economy, and society. We’re keeping the game close while masking ruthlessness as spinelessness. Keep them digging deeper into their reserves of materiel. Pressure their economy. Destroy their trade relationships. Kill their young men. I suspect that the West will be perfectly happy to continue this course of action until something inside Russia breaks - most likely an Army mutiny. After that, color revolutions along Russia’s southern flank. People will read this and think that I’m repeating the Russian talking point of “fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.” But nothing is further from the truth. I believe the higher echelons of Ukraine’s military and civilian leadership are aware of and onboard with this as the best option for their long-term security as a nation. Russia will NEVER be a trustworthy neighbor for Ukraine, and from Ukraine’s perspective the best Russia is a smashed Russia. Smashed so thoroughly that it will disintegrate under internal pressures. For this outcome, Ukraine is willing and able to suffer the casualties they’re suffering. This is fucking hardball. But all that said, there is a way forward for Russia as a diminished state. IMO, the West, in particular Europe, believes that Russia can go forward like Japan and Germany went forward after WW2. They have to be smashed first (and there may well be a follow-on war to this one) but afterward will learn the error of their ways and can return to polite European society. So ultimately it isn't about wiping the Russians out, it’s about bringing them out of the 19th century the hard way. If we can avoid nukes I think that is a very reasonable outcome. |
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Posted: 10/22/2022 4:10:48 PM EDT
Quote History Originally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: First load of hard goods from the fundraiser went for delivery. My wife was busy so I filled in for a pic. Those are my firearms and have nothing to do with the foundation I was just going to the range. Americans in Ukraine https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/70DED3A3-B692-4E84-977C-8F65F1BB7258_jpe-2572004.JPG We still have at least 40 boxes of mil clothing to ship and have to pick up 44 pairs of winter boots and 40 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/87B06CC9-2C90-415F-A0FA-117AB647D3AA_jpe-2572025.JPGparkas from a GSA auction. Thanks guys, we went over budget but hey out fitting 200++ guys tip to bottom in winter gear, plus a lot of extra special order type stuff and gear donations (these bags) make for happy November to the guys in 3 units. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/419667/BC94F31A-AE2B-4AE0-BCFB-D2781E90B0D1_jpe-2572012.JPG |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 10/22/2022 4:18:44 PM EDT
We are what... five/six weeks into la grande mobilisation
What Russian army doing? |
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