With all the trillions the fed has been printing and plans to print over the next year. When do we start to see a spike in inflation?  

The consumer isn’t spending so that’s causing a deflationary effect.  But once we start spending again coupled with the fed spending we should see a significant increase in inflation.

Frankly I don’t understand it as much as I should so what’s everyone’s opinions?

Define inflation first. In what actually matters yes. But maybe not by that mechanism.

A hundred years ago, an ounce of gold would buy you 4 nice suits.

Today, an ounce of gold will buy you 4 nice suits.

(Or something like that.  Might have heard it on Dave Ramsey's show.)

First, people have to get their Jobs back.  Then, they have to get raises.     We've already seen Vast inflation in Real Estate, Medicine, Government, Education and the Stock Market.   Thats where most of the money is tied up.

Inflation is unavoidable with all this printing of dollars.

^This^ right now it is more an issue of servicing obligations to stay solvent which has created a demand for dollars in a time when the velocity of money has slowed way down. If a company defaults on an obligation that has a deflationary effect akin to destroying money. With the Fed attempting to flood the market with cash to stop the former from happening we will get the inflation afterwards for sure.

Gold has already reacted strongly to the Fed and it was in a bull market prior to the crisis. This is probably going to be the greatest PM bull market of all time when you step back and look at the macro. If the CPI is 2% on average and Tbills are yielding less than 1.3% who the hell is going to stick around for a negative real rate?

I wish I had more physical.

I have contended for months now that the revolving door of stimulus packages is the return volley from the U.S. to China in World War III. This is the new format of warfare. When everyone has weapons that can wipe out a nation, the cold war evolves into an economic war. After Xi Jinping announced he planned to win a "15-year war" with the US, many dismissed it. He had in fact declared war, but since there were no bullets bombs or rockets, people thought it was just talk.

China's economy had been in a downturn as a result of the stiff tariffs and sanctions imposed by Trump. When they recognized the effects the Covid-19 pandemic would have on their economy, they made a choice. They obfuscated information they had obtained for months, allowing them to prepare and allowing them to get further along in their pandemic efforts, before other countries realized the severity. This allowed them to get through to the back end of it much sooner than other countries, while ensuring those countries would not take preemptive steps to avoid the economic and medical implications this pandemic has brought. This also allowed China to re-open their economy driving manufactured goods out in preparation for the shut down countries that would need them when those countries had re-opened their economies. The KN95 masks are a prime example of this.

If all their enemies economies were suffering the same time China's economy, then China could use the global depression to maintain status quo. Salvo 1 was the Tariffs by the US. Salvo 2 was the intentional crippling of the world market by China.

The US response to this has been layered. Through these stimulus packages the beleaguered economy of the US is being put on life-support to make it through the national shutdown. The fact that the US is creating all of this money to do this, to the tune of trillions of dollars, will inevitably lead to inflation. That is where most people are concerned, but the reality is that this is forced inflation as an economic attack. Not by China on the US, but by the US on China. All of this new debt is being created, but most importantly, all of this debt is to the US Federal Reserve. Currently about 30% of the United States' national debt is held by China. By creating a huge amount of debt to the Federal Reserve, the US creates significant inflation while maintaining a static debt to China. If the value of the dollar drops by just 10%, the static debt to China is effectively cut down from 6.3 trillion dollars to 5.67 trillion in actual dollar value. We could see inflation go far more than that. Salvo 3 is the US making the US debt assets owned by China worthless.

By forcing inflation, and therefore devaluing the USD, the US is inflating above its debt to China. What is 6.3 trillion dollars when a loaf of bread is $100? (hyperbole for the example). This will cause severe economic impact to China when it transpires, as their investments into US holdings become upside-down in actual trade value. This makes it hard for China to increase its manufacturing holdings, and stymies their production monopoly. Meanwhile, the US having authorized the Defense Production Act, can begin to create manufacturing jobs and facilities within its own borders akin to WWII. Considering the sharp move to self-reliance on oil production the US made in the last few years, it is very likely that the current administration has been preparing to go in this direction for some time.

I am curious if anyone else on here shares my own opinion on the matter, or differs entirely. I would love to discuss this in depth.

This isn't a 4D geopolitical chess game, it is a simple fact that the US gov has overspent for decades.

What you ignore in you analysis is the fact that the people hold the most US debt are US savers. The whole screw over China narrative by either canceling or inflating the debt away is a sign of profound ignorance of how the debt markets even work. The US gov has declared war on savers in general which includes US savings and pensions. The only saving grace is that they have declared the war to a lesser degree than every other country on Earth. That actually creates a demand for dollars in the international scope of things which is the only thing saving us from Wiemar level inflation.

The fact that the US T-bill is yielding less than CPI is just an honest statement from government that if you give them money you will get less back in real terms. Return free risk over the long term.

I also want to note that your example of the oil market isn't reflected in reality either. The US oil producers have benefited from low interest rates since Obama(not exactly a MAGA guy). They also happened to be some of the highest cost producers so now they are going under with the overproduction that developed. Admins in government don't control the markets like you are alluding to. They can lean on it but that just creates some idiotic knock on effect later.

"All of this new debt is being created, but most importantly, all of this debt is to the US Federal Reserve. Currently about 30% of the United States' national debt is held by China. By creating a huge amount of debt to the Federal Reserve, the US creates significant inflation while maintaining a static debt to China." if china's debt is being devalued so is the paper on the Feds balance sheet. I don't know exactly how that charade will end but it won't end like you are saying it will.

"was the intentional crippling of the world market by China." Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence. Incompetence and communists trying to save face are to blame not some omnipotent commie government. China is still asshole but it isn't a 4D chess player. Being a dick in an international crisis that you are most to blame for isn't a wining move.

The US is probably going to snub China's exports at every turn and promote "made anywhere but China" at a minimum but if you think that US monetary policy is being driven fundamentally by that you are sorely mistaken. You are focusing on the Chinese dumpster fire in the back ally behind Chernobyl number 4 circa late April 1986. The nuclear pile fire spewing ~0% interest rate toxins into the financial markets are the important thing not the ancillary Chinese caused dumpster fire.