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Posted: 9/18/2023 11:48:57 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daoliver924]
The unchallenged assumption among the majority of senior U.S. and NATO officials is that for as long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, one of the West's most preferred policy outcomes of the war will be perpetually met: weakening Russia. Going unnoticed by most Western leaders, however, there is an emerging risk that the longer the war continues, Russia will grow stronger, not weaker.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/imagining-the-unimaginable-what-happens-if-ukraine-cant-beat-russia/ Read the article before commenting. This is one of the best thought out pieces in a long time. No sides, just facts |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 11:52:22 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 9/18/2023 11:52:36 AM EDT
[#2]
Zero fucks given either way
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Posted: 9/18/2023 11:53:54 AM EDT
[#3]
Rated News because well, you know.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:00:25 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Elijah1: Zero fucks given either way Pretty much this...short of nukes entering the field, no fucks given really. Not my problem, not my monkeys, not my circus. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:01:21 PM EDT
[#5]
Why does Russia want to control and take over the Ukraine anyway?
Its just more mouths to feed/starve, more area of responsibility and more cost of operation. I never understood this whole conflict. Does the Ukraine have ports, minerals or other resources or something that Russia wants to needs? Or just want to be a bad ass and Bully? |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:02:30 PM EDT
[#6]
Russia's not losing.
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TN, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:02:37 PM EDT
[#7]
Originally Posted By daoliver924: Read the article before commenting. I'm sorry good sir, are you lost. Reading? This is GD! |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:03:30 PM EDT
[#8]
They can't and won't beat Russia. Sooner or later the money/aid is going to run out, or UKR will run out of fit bodies. Russia can use criminals, the ones in prison, not just your average Russian in the general population.
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OH, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:04:34 PM EDT
[#9]
Ok, let me first say I am definitely not a ukebro, I hate that we fund this war and I think its costly and needless for both sides.
But, let me ask this: the article posits what if Russia is becoming stronger from this war and then, what action should the US take if the goal is to weaken Russia? I don't think you could back down from continuing the war then if that is still your goal. If you have awakened a Russian sleeping bear if you will, then it is still awake now. Whatever increased mobilization and production capacity would be wisely continued by Russia even into peacetime, as they learned their military previously was not up to the task. So even if we end the war, its very likely they'd continue to produce as much war materiel and strengthen their army regardless. It would stand to reason then, that yes even if they get stronger through the war, you have to continue the war because without it, they'd be getting even that much more stronger. That's my reasoning at least, again I think the whole thing is stupid and Russia would better serve as as an ally against China than an enemy. |
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:04:53 PM EDT
[#10]
How is that going “unnoticed”?
Somehow war is great for our economy but supposed to be bad for Russia’s? |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:05:14 PM EDT
[#11]
I don't think I could care less than I already do.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:05:40 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LarpHard: I'm sorry good sir, are you lost. Reading? This is GD! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LarpHard: Originally Posted By daoliver924: Read the article before commenting. I'm sorry good sir, are you lost. Reading? This is GD! |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:05:49 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Evil_Ed: Pretty much this...short of nukes entering the field, no fucks given really. Not my problem, not my monkeys, not my circus. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:06:38 PM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:06:44 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nicodemus7: How is that going "unnoticed"? Somehow war is great for our economy but supposed to be bad for Russia's? |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:06:47 PM EDT
[#16]
I don't care. Not my pig, not my farm.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:06:54 PM EDT
[#17]
It becomes a Korea situation in Europe, I guess.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:08:53 PM EDT
[#18]
lol, 19fortyfive is literally Russian propaganda...
...rating this one troll |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:09:09 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By smullen: Why does Russia want to control and take over the Ukraine anyway? Its just more mouths to feed/starve, more area of responsibility and more cost of operation. I never understood this whole conflict. Does the Ukraine have ports, minerals or other resources or something that Russia wants to needs? Or just want to be a bad ass and Bully? yes 
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:10:14 PM EDT
[#20]
If the Ukrainian forces end up like Afghanistan's, what will the impact be besides billions of dollars flushed down the shitter?
This is a European problem that should be dealt with and solved by them. We never learn, do we? |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:11:24 PM EDT
[#21]
I'm surprised they haven't beaten you to "troll" or "obvious Russian propaganda!" Yet.
Poorly thought out strategy takes you to bad places. Right now, the policy seems to be somewhat a combination of hope and wish fulfillment. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:11:42 PM EDT
[#22]
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:12:58 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By OliversDad13: If the Ukrainian forces end up like Afghanistan's, what will the impact be besides billions of dollars flushed down the shitter? This is a European problem that should be dealt with and solved by them. We never learn, do we? They are so helpless they need Americans. Remember when they openly mocked our President over pointing it out after they ignored the warnings of our SECDEF that donor fatigue would be real? |
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:13:28 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Pallas: They can't and won't beat Russia. Sooner or later the money/aid is going to run out, or UKR will run out of fit bodies. Russia can use criminals, the ones in prison, not just your average Russian in the general population. Ukraine has two options. Lose or another country is going to have to get in the fight directly. The way this is working out really sucks for Ukraine. Russia claims this is over NATO encroachment. Ukraines only potential allies are NATO members. None are likely going to drag us all into WW3. If for example Poland was not a NATO member, this would probably be over already. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:13:47 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Elijah1: Zero fucks given either way |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:14:40 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By colklink: Rated News because well, you know. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:15:01 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By odiedodi: It becomes a Korea situation in Europe, I guess. That's the likely best case scenario and Ukraine will be a massive resource sump for the West for decades. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:17:27 PM EDT
[#28]
Dont give a fuck
Both are corrupt |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:18:20 PM EDT
[#29]
LOL
Zelensky fires all six of his defense ministers with no explanation weeks after letting top military chief go amid corruption and graft allegations Link |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:19:56 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daoliver924: Someone here hasn't noticed inflation That's Putin's inflation! |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:24:06 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: LOL Zelensky fires all six of his defense ministers with no explanation weeks after letting top military chief go amid corruption and graft allegations Link I remember people in GD telling me there were no credible corruption allegations. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:25:29 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By realwar: LOL Zelensky fires all six of his defense ministers with no explanation weeks after letting top military chief go amid corruption and graft allegations Link I smell damage control for laundering our $, on topic: Who the hell ever thought Ukraine could stop the Russians? I suspect they really want back the ports that they lost at the end of the Soviet Union. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:27:32 PM EDT
[#33]
in b4 ukebros rate this thread troll
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:28:03 PM EDT
[#34]
Wait a minute. Are you saying the Deep State is yet again wrong about a subject they are supposedly experts on?!?
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:28:34 PM EDT
[#35]
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USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:30:47 PM EDT
[#36]
How is it unimaginable? Are they imagining that people thought the fed spam talking points were real up until now?
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TX, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:31:00 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By smullen: Why does Russia want to control and take over the Ukraine anyway? Its just more mouths to feed/starve, more area of responsibility and more cost of operation. I never understood this whole conflict. Does the Ukraine have ports, minerals or other resources or something that Russia wants to needs? Or just want to be a bad ass and Bully? Ukraine is very resource-rich, particularly things like titanium, rare earth metals, and even oil/gas. IIRC, its titanium deposits were the enabler for the titanium-hulled fast attack Russian subs. Even if we wanted to build something like that, we couldn't because we can't get enough Ti from the rest of the world. It also produces immense amounts of wheat. This has been about securing Xi's overland supply lines for those resources from Day 1. Long term view, it is not good at all for us to let Xi have dibs on those resources. Short to medium term view, we can't afford to be the main supporter of Ukraine. Best solution for us is probably some sort of weapons surge that forces Moscow to the negotiating table. IDK, maybe something like the threat of long range cruise missiles capable of hitting deep inside Russia? Vlad, start negotiating or we give them the good stuff and drop the ROE's. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:31:20 PM EDT
[#38]
Originally Posted By daoliver924: The unchallenged assumption among the majority of senior U.S. and NATO officials is that for as long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, one of the West's most preferred policy outcomes of the war will be perpetually met: weakening Russia. Going unnoticed by most Western leaders, however, there is an emerging risk that the longer the war continues, Russia will grow stronger, not weaker. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/imagining-the-unimaginable-what-happens-if-ukraine-cant-beat-russia/ Read the article before commenting. This is one of the best thought out pieces in a long time. No sides, just facts Since there is no way that Ukraine CAN beat Russia......... The question is irrelevant and the article incredibly stupid. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:31:44 PM EDT
[#39]
 Summary: The soldiers not killed are smarter than the ones killed, therefore, the military is getting better. The longer the conflict goes on the more Russians are killed and the better they get. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:32:12 PM EDT
[#40]
Originally Posted By daoliver924: The unchallenged assumption among the majority of senior U.S. and NATO officials is that for as long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, one of the West's most preferred policy outcomes of the war will be perpetually met: weakening Russia. Going unnoticed by most Western leaders, however, there is an emerging risk that the longer the war continues, Russia will grow stronger, not weaker. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/imagining-the-unimaginable-what-happens-if-ukraine-cant-beat-russia/ Read the article before commenting. This is one of the best thought out pieces in a long time. No sides, just facts The only thing the article got right is it is a question of which side collapses first. Without western aid, Ukraine will collapse. Thinking that Russia can competently mobilize mass industrial production and supply its military with its own resources ignores 100 years of history of Russian / Soviet forces. US industrial might kept the Soviet Union in WWII. The post above about Poland has a point. NATO might be what is restraining Poland from reclaiming its 1939 eastern border. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:41:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: PolarBear416]
[#41]
The article missed a few key points:
1. What will make Russia even stronger, not only in the short term, but in the long term, would be defeating Ukraine and adding its GDP to the Russian Empire. That's the worst outcome. 2. While the Russian military is becoming more battle hardened Russia is unable to replace the more sophisticated weapon systems (eg aircraft , ships, etc). At best it's pumping out more low tech stuff like shells and missiles that require a limited number of chips. 3. While Russia has more military aged men it can't actually afford to pay them, which is why we are not seeing larger mobilizations 4. We do see evidence of weakening. Russia now has only a skeleton defense along the NATO border despite its rhetoric that NATO is a threat 5. Russia is now suffering a lot of inflation and other economic problems which shows their economy is actually hitting limits already The biggest risk is that China starts supporting Russia. So far we see some lax controls around "dual use" exports but no sign that the Chinese are willing to do something like the lend-lease support that NATO is providing Ukraine (ie, putting their own GDP into it). That could change. The reality is we would be fighting that war anyway. One day China will attack Taiwan and we can anticipate that they will engineer a multi front conflict such as the Korean war going hot at the same time. If Russia is still a player it would certainly use the opportunity to invade other countries, and Iran also will likely go the same. So we either take Russia out of the equation now, or we're not worse then if we did nothing, and if Ukraine is actually occupied by Russia that's the worst strategic outcome |
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NC, USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:43:10 PM EDT
[#42]
Who fucking cares? Here’s Tom with the weather.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:43:15 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By smullen: Why does Russia want to control and take over the Ukraine anyway? Its just more mouths to feed/starve, more area of responsibility and more cost of operation. I never understood this whole conflict. Does the Ukraine have ports, minerals or other resources or something that Russia wants to needs? Or just want to be a bad ass and Bully? |
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USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:43:19 PM EDT
[#44]
I can't imagine Ukraine winning.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:44:04 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LineHaul: Who fucking cares? Here’s Tom with the weather. And the sports ball scores....go local sports collective. |
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USA
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:45:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: PolarBear416]
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cash50: I can't imagine Ukraine winning. And yet they are systematically pushing Russia back. Maybe not as fast as we like, but they are. So what's hard to imagine about that process simply continuing? |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:46:04 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cash50: I can't imagine Ukraine winning. They don't have the manpower nor the aviation to beat Russia. if they don't strike a deal with Russia they could lose the entire country. Russia is already planning a huge offensive for next summer. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:46:45 PM EDT
[#48]
Is it really that unimaginable? They aren’t even trying to”win” they are doing just enough to keep the free shit gravy train running.
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:46:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: LittlePony]
[#49]
Originally Posted By daoliver924: The unchallenged assumption among the majority of senior U.S. and NATO officials is that for as long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, one of the West's most preferred policy outcomes of the war will be perpetually met: weakening Russia. Going unnoticed by most Western leaders, however, there is an emerging risk that the longer the war continues, Russia will grow stronger, not weaker. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/09/imagining-the-unimaginable-what-happens-if-ukraine-cant-beat-russia/ Read the article before commenting. This is one of the best thought out pieces in a long time. No sides, just facts What ever the outcome Russia is doomed long term. They, might, still take Ukraine. But if they do it will not matter as they have already cut off both their legs and if they keep going like this, both their arms too. They are going to end up at a point where the average Russian is going to only be slightly better off than a North Korean. Economically and demographically they have destroyed themselves and I'm sure China is looking to reclaim the territory Russia stole from them at some point. |
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Posted: 9/18/2023 12:47:54 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By smullen: Why does Russia want to control and take over the Ukraine anyway? Its just more mouths to feed/starve, more area of responsibility and more cost of operation. I never understood this whole conflict. Does the Ukraine have ports, minerals or other resources or something that Russia wants to needs? Or just want to be a bad ass and Bully? In this thread we find out who has never been dumped by a girlfriend. Then, later, they see her minding her own business walking down the street, grab her, chloroform her and keep her in a pit in their basement. I mean, who hasn’t?  Totally understandable why Russia is in Ukraine.
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