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Posted: 1/27/2021 9:34:15 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think that written language was the impetus needed to launch humans out of the stone age. The jump needed to go from grunting and gesturing to sounds having consistent meaning is pretty logical, but for that sound to be transformed into a written symbol is more abstract. Try to imagine thinking without words. There were probably advanced civilizations earlier than we currently have evidence of, but "advanced" in this case meaning they discovered the wheel and could smelt copper thousands of years before we know of, not flying cars and spaceships. I never said anything about flying cars or spaceships, and so far as i know Randal Carlson doesn't believe in such things either. There is some evidence that suggests the sphinx and great pyramid are much older than originally thought, and there are some south American sites like gobekli tepe. There are also some middle eastern and asian sites that could be older than 12k, but the names escape me at the moment. Evidence does suggest that there was multiple comet/meteor impacts around 12k years ago. Think about how most of our large cities are built near the coast. Water levels were much lower 12k years ago prior to the younger dryas impacts. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 9:45:02 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Waiting for the beatdown for asking for evidence in 3, 2, 1... WHy would i beat you down for asking for evidence? Im not a geologist, and i think our science is lacking when it comes to dating archeological sites, especially when said sites have been used and contaminated by use through thousands of years and multiple civilizations, but there are some reputable geologists who believe sites like The Sphynx, great pyramid, gobekli tepe, some middle eastern sites that escape me at this moment, and some asian sites date earlier than 12k. Its not like these sites were just buried after they were created or abandoned and never used/seen again. The younger dryas impact was about 12k years ago, and changed the world quite dramatically in a very short period of time. I have seen the scablands personally that were caused by the great flood of lake missoula. Never did i say there were nuclear powers, or spaceships. I said there likely were advanced civilizations prior to 12k years ago. I also said possibly advanced in different ways than our own. It took us a long time to figure out how Roman concrete was made. Or how they made Terra Preta in south america. If there were ancient civilizations prior to 12k years ago, most of their building sites would be under ocean water currently. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 9:49:48 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: WHy would i beat you down for asking for evidence? Im not a geologist, and i think our science is lacking when it comes to dating archeological sites, but there are some reputable geologists who believe sites like The Sphynx, great pyramid, gobekli tepe, some middle eastern sites that escape me at this moment, and some asian sites date earlier than 12k. The younger dryas impact was about 12k years ago, and changed the world quite dramatically in a very short period of time. I have seen the scablands personally that were caused by the great flood of lake missoula. Never did i say there were nuclear powers, or spaceships. I said there likely were advanced civilizations prior to 12k years ago. I also said possibly advanced in different ways than our own. It took us a long time to figure out how Roman concrete was made. Or how they made Terra Preta in south america. If there were ancient civilizations prior to 12k years ago, most of their building sites would be under ocean water currently. lol |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 9:54:53 PM EDT
[#4]
As many stars with planets around them and 125 billion galaxies that we know about.
Would seem impossible for there not to be. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 9:56:58 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: lol I fail to see whats funny about the younger dryas impacts. Explain the water erosion on the sphynx, considering there were numerous times since its creation/discovery that it was completely buried? Also explain the last period in time where there would exist rain fall in the region in the amount needed to cause the erosion? I also find it suspicious that earlier pyramids are far superior to more modern pyramids in every way. Almost like they were discovered by a less advance civilization that tried to recreate them. Its a pretty far stretch for me to believe that anatomically modern man was dwelling in caves for 200k years or so with no advancements outside of cave drawings. Obviously i have no proof, but the younger dryas impact seems to be a pretty big deal. Ill leave it to geologists and archeologists to find out 
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Posted: 1/27/2021 9:58:38 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: First of all, I was talking the galaxy, not the universe, as the galaxy is big, but not that big, so life could be very rare, and thus, we could totally be alone among "advanced" civilizations in the milky way. That said, I do believe that the existence of extra terrestrially life, and even intelligence, is likely. And no, faith doesn't play into it. Its an educated guess based on simple math. Regardless of how small you estimate the probabilities to be, the number of stars in the universe means that's a lot of dice throws (potentially even infinite dice throws) to only end up with 1.0. Said another way: at some point, given enough trials, the probability of rare events NOT happening at least a couple times can become unreasonable. The real question is, how rare would life have to be for us to be truly alone? The answer really depends on the size of the universe. If the universe is infinite, obviously its unreasonable to assume that the chances are that remote. If it is huge, the chances could also be a pretty good bet that somewhere there is something else. If it is just slightly bigger than the observable universe? Well, that's where we could put actual numbers on it. e.g. "Is the chances of life arising around any random star greater or less in magnitude than 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000". That seems kinda unreasonably rare, but, I could totally be wrong, as it is a guess. You are making the mistake that many people make. You are confusing statistics with biology. Statistics doesn't produce life. We cannot make any valid statistical analysis with only one data point. Your "belief" is not based upon anything valid. For all we know the universe may be sterile except for life on earth. We just don't know because we only have verified data on one planet. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:00:30 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I fail to see whats funny about the younger dryas impacts. Explain the water erosion on the sphynx, considering there were numerous times since its creation/discovery that it was completely buried? Also explain the last period in time where there would exist rain fall in the region in the amount needed to cause the erosion? https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/KizoE9BIrNjRP_Ffw8eREks-edcU9ylBsLuXkWoq_2rBVd9e34Z_cyPhOdNM0zxRKxvHx7XJd58aUgFA5z6UMAEZltyS8SSwSzU And what kind of “science” looks at things like that? Junk science |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:03:18 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And what kind of “science” looks at things like that? Junk science Geology is junk science? |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:08:12 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Geology is junk science? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And what kind of “science” looks at things like that? Junk science Geology is junk science? Geologists look for evidence of past material cultures? |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:19:09 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Geologists look for evidence of past material cultures? No, but they do study and understand geological erosion. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:52:06 PM EDT
[#11]
wasn
Quote HistoryQuoted: WHy would i beat you down for asking for evidence? Im not a geologist, and i think our science is lacking when it comes to dating archeological sites, especially when said sites have been used and contaminated by use through thousands of years and multiple civilizations, but there are some reputable geologists who believe sites like The Sphynx, great pyramid, gobekli tepe, some middle eastern sites that escape me at this moment, and some asian sites date earlier than 12k. Its not like these sites were just buried after they were created or abandoned and never used/seen again. The younger dryas impact was about 12k years ago, and changed the world quite dramatically in a very short period of time. I have seen the scablands personally that were caused by the great flood of lake missoula. Never did i say there were nuclear powers, or spaceships. I said there likely were advanced civilizations prior to 12k years ago. I also said possibly advanced in different ways than our own. It took us a long time to figure out how Roman concrete was made. Or how they made Terra Preta in south america. If there were ancient civilizations prior to 12k years ago, most of their building sites would be under ocean water currently. I wasn't referring to you; I was referring to other posters who feel personally insulted that I require evidence before believing in a scientific theory. They're easy to find ITT. Imagine the chutzpah of wanting to see evidence! Sorry about the confusion. I have been to the scablands as well, but those weren't caused by human activity. The other features you mentioned - Sphinx, etc. - are not evidence of advanced cultures by any reasonable definition. They're interesting, but "advanced"? Naw, not really. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:54:08 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Geologists look for evidence of past material cultures? It's not their main focus, but if any profession would run onto evidence of advanced cultures, it would probably be geologists. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:55:13 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Agreed. There's nothing wrong with estimating the potential for advanced civilizations in the universe with some assumptions based on observation. Usually when someone insists on us being alone in the universe because there's no evidence available otherwise, I can make the assumption they're religious and be correct. Talk about accepting things without evidence again please. I would assume the opposite. A person who observes (correctly) that we have no evidence for life anywhere other than Earth is merely stating an obvious fact. If that is your clue that they are religious, then I'd say you have some odd qualifiers. I'd say a person who is willing to claim something they cannot know (there is extra-terrestrial life) without evidence is more likely to be the religious one. In fact, I believe it to be an entirely scientific statement for me to claim that, currently, we have exactly as much evidence for the existence of extra-terrestrial life as we do for the existence of a God or other Divine Being. With regard to making assumptions based on observations, what assumptions can safely be made about the rarity of the emergence or manifestation of life? What do we know about the conditions that led to the emergence of life on this planet? What have we observed about the creation or manifestation of life, in order to make accurate assumptions about its rarity? |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 10:58:07 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I never said anything about flying cars or spaceships, and so far as i know Randal Carlson doesn't believe in such things either. There is some evidence that suggests the sphinx and great pyramid are much older than originally thought, and there are some south American sites like gobekli tepe. There are also some middle eastern and asian sites that could be older than 12k, but the names escape me at the moment. Evidence does suggest that there was multiple comet/meteor impacts around 12k years ago. Think about how most of our large cities are built near the coast. Water levels were much lower 12k years ago prior to the younger dryas impacts. Sorry, the flying cars remark was hyperbole. I'm open to the possibility of a relatively advanced civilization existing much earlier than we know of, but there isn't really any solid evidence, just speculation. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:03:07 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I would assume the opposite. A person who observes (correctly) that we have no evidence for life anywhere other than Earth is merely stating an obvious fact. If that is your clue that they are religious, then I'd say you have some odd qualifiers. I'd say a person who is willing to claim something they cannot know (there is extra-terrestrial life) without evidence is more likely to be the religious one. In fact, I believe it to be an entirely scientific statement for me to claim that, currently, we have exactly as much evidence for the existence of extra-terrestrial life as we do for the existence of a God or other Divine Being. With regard to making assumptions based on observations, what assumptions can safely be made about the rarity of the emergence or manifestation of life? What do we know about the conditions that led to the emergence of life on this planet? What have we observed about the creation or manifestation of life, in order to make accurate assumptions about its rarity? Welp, now you've gone and done it. Might as well say that Santa and the Easter Bunny don't exist. You are not going to be popular ITT. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:14:39 PM EDT
[#16]
Have we covered the possibility that life on earth IS alien life, delivered by asteroid impact? Or it’s corollary that life on earth could have spread by similar means to other receptive planets?
Look at those water bear creatures, they’re pretty complex and tough enough to survive a looong trip under the right conditions. A simpler organism may be able to survive indefinitely. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:24:34 PM EDT
[#17]
It's those "constants" that make such predictions credible
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:24:54 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Welp, now you've gone and done it. Might as well say that Santa and the Easter Bunny don't exist. You are not going to be popular ITT. I think, like a lot of internet arguments, the problem is one of communication. The original question was about an ESTIMATE. We need for everyone to calm down and agree that we genuinely don't have enough information to make an estimate. We are guessing about rarity. We are guessing about the necessary conditions. We are guessing about the probabilities all the way around. It's guesses all the way down, and no amount of big numbers cancels out the lack of hard evidence (not all facts count as data if you don't know the variables). After that, we need to recognize that stating those basic facts is not an attack on the idea that evidence might be found at a later date. Then, hopefully, we can have a more-or-less rational discussion about all our exciting speculations. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:28:34 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: wasn I wasn't referring to you; I was referring to other posters who feel personally insulted that I require evidence before believing in a scientific theory. They're easy to find ITT. Imagine the chutzpah of wanting to see evidence! Sorry about the confusion. I have been to the scablands as well, but those weren't caused by human activity. The other features you mentioned - Sphinx, etc. - are not evidence of advanced cultures by any reasonable definition. They're interesting, but "advanced"? Naw, not really. No the scablands were not caused by human activity's. They were caused by the fallout from the younger dryas impacts, and date to about 12k years ago. Kind of an important "coincidence". Thats why i bring up the younger dryas impacts when discussing the possibilities of relatively advanced civilizations dating prior to 12k years ago. Now im not saying it happened for certain in the past, but imagine a similar impact wiped out our current civilization. What would remain in the archeological record 1k years from now? 5k years from now? 12k years from now? Stone structures would exist far longer than any modern built structures. The fact is, there is a high probability that one day our civilization will be wiped out by a natural or man made disaster. If our civilization can be wiped out, there is no reason to not believe in the possibility of it happening previously in the 200K+ years modern man has existed on this planet. There are also anomalies like what we are now finding in Antarctica, and as science and technology progresses, i look forward to us finding more of the anomalies. Man made or natural? Dunno, but i sure hope we continue to search for the answers. 
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:31:02 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No the scablands were not caused by human activity's. They were caused by the fallout from the younger dryas impacts, and date to about 12k years ago. Kind of an important "coincidence". Thats why i bring up the younger dryas impacts when discussing the possibilities of relatively advanced civilizations dating prior to 12k years ago. Now im not saying it happened for certain in the past, but imagine a similar impact wiped out our current civilization. What would remain in the archeological record 1k years from now? 5k years from now? 12k years from now? Stone structures would exist far longer than any modern built structures. The fact is, there is a high probability that one day our civilization will be wiped out by a natural or man made disaster. If our civilization can be wiped out, there is no reason to not believe in the possibility of it happening previously in the 200K+ years modern man has existed on this planet. There are also anomalies like what we are now finding in Antarctica, and as science and technology progresses, i look forward to us finding more of the anomalies. Man made or natural? Dunno, but i sure hope we continue to search for the answers. https://marketing.gaia.com/wp-content/uploads/Ancient-Ruins-found-in-Antarctica-on-Google-Earth-2-min.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: wasn I wasn't referring to you; I was referring to other posters who feel personally insulted that I require evidence before believing in a scientific theory. They're easy to find ITT. Imagine the chutzpah of wanting to see evidence! Sorry about the confusion. I have been to the scablands as well, but those weren't caused by human activity. The other features you mentioned - Sphinx, etc. - are not evidence of advanced cultures by any reasonable definition. They're interesting, but "advanced"? Naw, not really. No the scablands were not caused by human activity's. They were caused by the fallout from the younger dryas impacts, and date to about 12k years ago. Kind of an important "coincidence". Thats why i bring up the younger dryas impacts when discussing the possibilities of relatively advanced civilizations dating prior to 12k years ago. Now im not saying it happened for certain in the past, but imagine a similar impact wiped out our current civilization. What would remain in the archeological record 1k years from now? 5k years from now? 12k years from now? Stone structures would exist far longer than any modern built structures. The fact is, there is a high probability that one day our civilization will be wiped out by a natural or man made disaster. If our civilization can be wiped out, there is no reason to not believe in the possibility of it happening previously in the 200K+ years modern man has existed on this planet. There are also anomalies like what we are now finding in Antarctica, and as science and technology progresses, i look forward to us finding more of the anomalies. Man made or natural? Dunno, but i sure hope we continue to search for the answers. https://marketing.gaia.com/wp-content/uploads/Ancient-Ruins-found-in-Antarctica-on-Google-Earth-2-min.jpg Oh man, that’s where I parked my mothership. I’ve been looking all over for it. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:37:21 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh man, that’s where I parked my mothership. I’ve been looking all over for it. Im not a believer in Bob Lazar, but it seems a lot of the ET community is. It is interesting to me however that he claims the craft he saw was an archeological find. Don't necessarily believe it, but i find it interesting as i believe he was one of the first people to make such claims. |
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Posted: 1/27/2021 11:42:08 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What data exists to make the guess an “educated” guess? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Seems that scientists make educated guesses all the time. Has anyone ever figured it out? If not the Universe how about just our galaxy? What data exists to make the guess an “educated” guess? None. Hence the problem. The "Drake Equation" is meaningless because every significant variable (the percentages of planets that are potentially habitable, the percentage of those that actually develop life, the odds of that life becoming a technological civilization, etc) are all just wild guesses, with no underlying data. You can't create a meaningful statistical model with a single non-random data point. Mike |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:24:06 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No the scablands were not caused by human activity's. They were caused by the fallout from the younger dryas impacts, and date to about 12k years ago. Kind of an important "coincidence". Thats why i bring up the younger dryas impacts when discussing the possibilities of relatively advanced civilizations dating prior to 12k years ago. Now im not saying it happened for certain in the past, but imagine a similar impact wiped out our current civilization. What would remain in the archeological record 1k years from now? 5k years from now? 12k years from now? Stone structures would exist far longer than any modern built structures. The fact is, there is a high probability that one day our civilization will be wiped out by a natural or man made disaster. If our civilization can be wiped out, there is no reason to not believe in the possibility of it happening previously in the 200K+ years modern man has existed on this planet. There are also anomalies like what we are now finding in Antarctica, and as science and technology progresses, i look forward to us finding more of the anomalies. Man made or natural? Dunno, but i sure hope we continue to search for the answers. https://marketing.gaia.com/wp-content/uploads/Ancient-Ruins-found-in-Antarctica-on-Google-Earth-2-min.jpg Well, that's a theory. A better theory IMO is that the ice dam eventually overtopped, which caused the massive catastrophic outflow of the lake impounded behind the ice dam. I've actually studied this to some extent. I'm going with that theory. This is not to say the dryas impacts didn't happen; however, there are no known major impact craters dating from that period, which would be expected in such a massive postulated event, and which would certainly be preserved. 12K years is pffft in geologic time. Meteor Crater in AZ is 50k years old, and is preserved beautifully. It's also just a "baby" comparatively speaking. It would take something MUCH larger to cause dryas-level effects. In any event, we digress. The OP is about ET life, for which there is no evidence at this time. I think we agree on that, yes? ETA: If our civilization were to be wiped out, the evidence we would leave behind would survive long afterward - buildings, machines, etc. I'm not buying that advanced civilizations pre-date our own. Of course, it depends on how you define "advanced". |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:29:17 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: None. Hence the problem. The "Drake Equation" is meaningless because every significant variable (the percentages of planets that are potentially habitable, the percentage of those that actually develop life, the odds of that life becoming a technological civilization, etc) are all just wild guesses, with no underlying data. You can't create a meaningful statistical model with a single non-random data point. Mike Are you saying that "Muh universe is really big" isn't evidence enough? The hell you say! |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:41:29 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In any event, we digress. The OP is about ET life, for which there is no evidence at this time. I think we agree on that, yes? ETA: If our civilization were to be wiped out, the evidence we would leave behind would survive long afterward - buildings, machines, etc. I'm not buying that advanced civilizations pre-date our own. Of course, it depends on how you define "advanced". We do indeed agree on the bold. In this case, "advanced" would be anything beyond cave dwelling hunter/gatherer societies, or cave dwelling agrarian societies as that's all we are led to believe existed prior to 12k years ago. What were we doing for 200k+ years? |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:52:10 AM EDT
[#26]
There is a problem with postulating older and more advanced civilizations.
And that is the amount of time needed for heavier elements to be formed. Initially, only a few lighter elements were present in the universe, and several generations of stars were needed before 'metallicity' in solar populations becomes high even to distribute the heavier elements into the surrounding stellar medium. Another consideration is that a large percentage of stars in the universe are too close to galactic centres to allow life to exist, and a decent percentage of the others are in areas of stellar nurseries, with similar radiation problems. The real problem is, as ever, the sheer size of the universe. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 3:20:40 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As many stars with planets around them and 125 billion galaxies that we know about. Would seem impossible for there not to be. @TripleC the astronomers I've listened to on YT say 2 TRILLION galaxies. Fact is we'll never know but given that our planet is 1 out of 9 JUST in our solar system, that's pretty good odds that there will be other planets out there that can create life like ours, and others that we could not even imagine. FROM SOME WEBSITE: if you want to accurately estimate how many planets there are in our galaxy, you can't just take the number of planets we find around our star and multiply it by the number of stars in our galaxy. That's a naïve estimate that we'd make in the absence of evidence. But just for fun, that'd give us somewhere around two-to-three trillion planets in our galaxy. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 4:09:15 AM EDT
[#28]
Zero
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Posted: 1/28/2021 10:38:51 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, that's a theory. A better theory IMO is that the ice dam eventually overtopped, which caused the massive catastrophic outflow of the lake impounded behind the ice dam. I've actually studied this to some extent. I'm going with that theory. This is not to say the dryas impacts didn't happen; however, there are no known major impact craters dating from that period, which would be expected in such a massive postulated event, and which would certainly be preserved. 12K years is pffft in geologic time. Meteor Crater in AZ is 50k years old, and is preserved beautifully. It's also just a "baby" comparatively speaking. It would take something MUCH larger to cause dryas-level effects. In any event, we digress. The OP is about ET life, for which there is no evidence at this time. I think we agree on that, yes? ETA: If our civilization were to be wiped out, the evidence we would leave behind would survive long afterward - buildings, machines, etc. I'm not buying that advanced civilizations pre-date our own. Of course, it depends on how you define "advanced". Nick |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:30:16 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We do indeed agree on the bold. In this case, "advanced" would be anything beyond cave dwelling hunter/gatherer societies, or cave dwelling agrarian societies as that's all we are led to believe existed prior to 12k years ago. What were we doing for 200k+ years? We were doing quite a lot, actually. Surviving, creating spoken languages, surviving, developing religious beliefs and rudimentary scientific observations to explain our existence, surviving, painting on cave walls and pecking pictures into rocks, surviving, developing agriculture, surviving, fighting wars, surviving. I believe species evolve in episodic fits and starts. 200K years isn't very long, compared to the age of the erf. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:47:04 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I fail to see whats funny about the younger dryas impacts. Explain the water erosion on the sphynx, considering there were numerous times since its creation/discovery that it was completely buried? Also explain the last period in time where there would exist rain fall in the region in the amount needed to cause the erosion? I also find it suspicious that earlier pyramids are far superior to more modern pyramids in every way. Almost like they were discovered by a less advance civilization that tried to recreate them. Its a pretty far stretch for me to believe that anatomically modern man was dwelling in caves for 200k years or so with no advancements outside of cave drawings. Obviously i have no proof, but the younger dryas impact seems to be a pretty big deal. Ill leave it to geologists and archeologists to find out https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/KizoE9BIrNjRP_Ffw8eREks-edcU9ylBsLuXkWoq_2rBVd9e34Z_cyPhOdNM0zxRKxvHx7XJd58aUgFA5z6UMAEZltyS8SSwSzU The "erosion" of the Sphinx is actually pretty easy to explain. See this link: http://www.aeraweb.org/sphinx-project/geology-of-the-sphinx/ tl:dr the Sphinx is carved from sedimentary rock. It's roughly 4500 years old, and the rock is Eocene (roughly 50 MY old). The layers alternate in hardness, with the harder layers generally near the bottom and the softer layers near the top. The softer layers weather faster, as would be expected, because they are softer and because they are exposed more than the lower layers. Many rock formations in our National Parks (Zion, Bryce, canyonlands) exhibit this same preferential weathering of softer sedimentary layers. It's ubiquitous wherever sedimentary rocks are found. It's not "water erosion". It's called "weathering", caused by rainfall, freeze/thaw, wind, and just plain old time. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 1:57:37 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In fact, I believe it to be an entirely scientific statement for me to claim that, currently, we have exactly as much evidence for the existence of extra-terrestrial life as we do for the existence of a God or other Divine Being. I disagree. We have evidence of life in this solar system, right here on Earth. We have zero evidence of divinity. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 2:00:20 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I disagree. We have evidence of life in this solar system, right here on Earth. We have zero evidence of divinity. Key word: EXTRA-terrestrial. RIF. There is ZERO evidence for ET life. You aren't keeping up. Please keep up. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 2:41:32 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Key word: EXTRA-terrestrial. RIF. There is ZERO evidence for ET life. You aren't keeping up. Please keep up. You're the one that keeps beating a dead strawman with the stick of appeal to authority rather than keeping up. The solution to the Drake equation is the number of civilizations, NOT the number in addition to the one we're absolutely sure of. The factors we know the most about are so huge that in order for the answer to be small at least one of the factors we know little about must be practically zero. But no factor can be literally zero because we know that there are more than zero civilizations. For the answer to be exactly one civilization one or more factors have to amount to exactly 1 in some number greater than trillions. While not being exactly zero. The logically valid(but not formally scientific) answer to the Drake equation is 'probably quite a lot'. Of course if you have some non-scientific, probably non-rational reason to accept that earth is an exception to the laws of the entire rest of the universe then your continual forcing of the debate toward evidence of ET life while ignoring T life is understandable. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 4:00:52 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You're the one that keeps beating a dead strawman with the stick of appeal to authority rather than keeping up. The solution to the Drake equation is the number of civilizations, NOT the number in addition to the one we're absolutely sure of. The factors we know the most about are so huge that in order for the answer to be small at least one of the factors we know little about must be practically zero. But no factor can be literally zero because we know that there are more than zero civilizations. For the answer to be exactly one civilization one or more factors have to amount to exactly 1 in some number greater than trillions. While not being exactly zero. The logically valid(but not formally scientific) answer to the Drake equation is 'probably quite a lot'. Of course if you have some non-scientific, probably non-rational reason to accept that earth is an exception to the laws of the entire rest of the universe then your continual forcing of the debate toward evidence of ET life while ignoring T life is understandable. LOL no. Know how we know that you have no clue what "appeal to authority" means? Your posts, that's how. I appeal to nothing, other than cold, hard evidence. For ET, there is none. Key word: EXTRA terrestrial. Extra, meaning "in addition to". There is no evidence whatsoever for life away from erf. If there was, you'd provide it. I'm eagerly anticipating seeing some, really I am. It would be grand. Not holding my breath, however. In the meantime, it's zero. Maybe could change, probably won't. That's my position. Change my mind. With evidence. Some sort of evidence. Tell us: do you believe in Yeti, Chupacabra, Loch Nessie, and Big Foot because we haven't explored every square inch of the earth's wilderness? Serious question. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 5:57:48 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We were doing quite a lot, actually. Surviving, creating spoken languages, surviving, developing religious beliefs and rudimentary scientific observations to explain our existence, surviving, painting on cave walls and pecking pictures into rocks, surviving, developing agriculture, surviving, fighting wars, surviving. I believe species evolve in episodic fits and starts. 200K years isn't very long, compared to the age of the erf. I understand 200k years compared to the total timeline of earth is a very small timeline. But im not sure why your making that comparison. The comparison should be 12k years to 200K years. Modern humans have not evolved in 200K plus years, so im not sure why you are talking about evolution. Modern man has existed in its current form for 200K+ years. We have not evolved as a species in at least that amount of time. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 6:15:43 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The "erosion" of the Sphinx is actually pretty easy to explain. See this link: http://www.aeraweb.org/sphinx-project/geology-of-the-sphinx/ tl:dr the Sphinx is carved from sedimentary rock. It's roughly 4500 years old, and the rock is Eocene (roughly 50 MY old). The layers alternate in hardness, with the harder layers generally near the bottom and the softer layers near the top. The softer layers weather faster, as would be expected, because they are softer and because they are exposed more than the lower layers. Many rock formations in our National Parks (Zion, Bryce, canyonlands) exhibit this same preferential weathering of softer sedimentary layers. It's ubiquitous wherever sedimentary rocks are found. It's not "water erosion". It's called "weathering", caused by rainfall, freeze/thaw, wind, and just plain old time. Except your comparisons have been exposed to weathering much longer than the Sphinx has according to current mainstream timelines. Add to that the fact that the sphinx has been buried throughout most of its "4500" years of existence, several thousand years to be precise, and the fact the environment in those 4500 years has not been the type that would lead to the type of weathering we see in the older portions of the sphinx, (there have been numerous restorations) and thats where you get some mainstream geologists who believe the sphinx is much older than archeologists suggest. The type of weathering we see seems to date back to a timeline of at least 7k years ago, which would leave the sphinx to be at least that old. Egyptologists have skin in the game to keep the currently held mainstream timeline. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 6:37:47 PM EDT
[#38]
It would seem that nature rarely creates one off's
There is more than one planet in our solar system. More than one star in the universe more than one solar system in our galaxy more than one black hole more than one galaxy. In fact, there are uncountable trillions of each of those. I would imagine that intelligent life is not a one off. We have lake the data for determining how common (or not) it is. But we do have more data than when the drake equation was first conceived. Back then, there was zero proof of extrasolar planets. It is something. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 6:38:34 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: "That's not fair" is what children say to make their parents feel guilty. Having raised offspring, it doesn't work on me, just so you know. We agree 100% - the universe has not been explored even a smidgin. So what? We still have the evidence we have, albeit incomplete. And ALL that evidence says no ET, as of now. Could it change? Certainly! I'll be just as excited as you if it does. But until then, it's nope nope nope. Prediction - we will find Big Foot, Loch Nessie, Yeti, and Chupacabra - all of them - before we find ET. I should have said "it is a very foolish thing to say, as it is not an accurate representation of the situation." Is that better for you? As for your prediction? I call Bullshit. All of those things have been been extremely well invesitaged. We have as much proof that they don't exist as it is possible to have. 1000 years from now none of those things will existing, because they don't now. We have no such thing for ET. Again, we've barely begun to look. How can you say "I predict we will never find it" without any evidence to back up your assertion? Faith? If so, that's up to you. Use it if you like. I reject the concept of faith and don't use it for anything in my life. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 6:40:22 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Amusing, how you take completely opposite positions regarding evidence for/against the existence of God and for/against the existence of ET. eta: barring a change from atheist to agnostic, of course. Life exists. We know this for a fact. If we had a single example of a supernatural entity existing, perhaps I'd take the existence of other supernatural entities as more likely to be possible. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 6:54:52 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Life exists. We know this for a fact. If we had a single example of a supernatural entity existing, perhaps I'd take the existence of other supernatural entities as more likely to be possible. Maybe intelligent life *is* a supernatural entity |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:36:19 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry, didn't realize english was your second language. I should have said "it is a very foolish thing to say, as it is not an accurate representation of the situation." Is that better for you? As for your prediction? I call Bullshit. All of those things have been been extremely well invesitaged. We have as much proof that they don't exist as it is possible to have. 1000 years from now none of those things will existing, because they don't now. We have no such thing for ET. Again, we've barely begun to look. How can you say "I predict we will never find it" without any evidence to back up your assertion? Faith? If so, that's up to you. Use it if you like. I reject the concept of faith and don't use it for anything in my life. Your failure to understand English is not related to my post. Sorry about your condition. My predictions are valid for different reasons: the non-existence of Yeti et. al. is because they most likely don't exist. The non-existence of ET is based on the fact that the time and distance needed to verify it are so large that we'll never know even if it does exist. If you'd read my previous posts, and understood simple English, you'd have grokked that. So tell us oh wise one: What's the difference between ET doesn't exist, and we can never know if ET exists? If you're honest, the answer is: Nothing. If you can't prove a thing exists, it doesn't from a scientific standpoint. We don't say warp travel exists, do we? No, we don't. It's a fantasy. Nor should we say ET exists because muh Drake and muh big universe. ET is a fantasy, driven by movies and TV and books and money. And a whole bunch of people have actually bought into it in a serious way. So serious, in fact, that when someone asks for evidence, their response is to circle the wagons and shout "How DARE you!"TM Thus, a belief in ET is religious in nature. And that's OK. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:36:39 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I would imagine... Imagine is not science. Real science tells us that there is only one planet that has life. Until we get another data point that is all we have. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:41:01 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Imagine is not science. Real science tells us that there is only one planet that has life. Until we get another data point that is all we have. How DARE you! |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:46:31 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe intelligent life *is* a supernatural entity Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Life exists. We know this for a fact. If we had a single example of a supernatural entity existing, perhaps I'd take the existence of other supernatural entities as more likely to be possible. Maybe intelligent life *is* a supernatural entity I like that idea too. God of the Bible is just a series of alien visitors trying to impart some wisdom and salt pillar some sodomites. I mean most of the gods from various cultures were aliens, the ones who shot lightning and could fly and stuff, like the god of the big 3. Not frog gods or other lame gods, they were just frogs. Given this new theory the Creationists (of any religion) can now join those pondering the thread topic cognitive dissonance free! |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:47:03 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 100 billion stars in just the Milky Way Galaxy. “Intelligent” life exists here. 100% confirmed. Even if we somehow happen to be 1 in 100,000,000,000, how many more galaxies are there? How many more stars in those? My opinion is there is not a single chance we are the only ones. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What data exists to make the guess an “educated” guess? 100 billion stars in just the Milky Way Galaxy. “Intelligent” life exists here. 100% confirmed. Even if we somehow happen to be 1 in 100,000,000,000, how many more galaxies are there? How many more stars in those? My opinion is there is not a single chance we are the only ones. What if we're the first one? |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:52:02 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What if we're the first one? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: What data exists to make the guess an “educated” guess? 100 billion stars in just the Milky Way Galaxy. “Intelligent” life exists here. 100% confirmed. Even if we somehow happen to be 1 in 100,000,000,000, how many more galaxies are there? How many more stars in those? My opinion is there is not a single chance we are the only ones. What if we're the first one? Or the last one? The product of an escape pod sent on a random trajectory, it’s inhabitants mummified millions of years ago, but a trace of life survived as a biofilm on the pods humidity control device. That slime is the ancestor of all life on earth. Probably we’re somewhere in the middle, just a hum drum average life planet not even worth visiting. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:53:00 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I like that idea too. God of the Bible is just a series of alien visitors trying to impart some wisdom and salt pillar some sodomites. I mean most of the gods from various cultures were aliens, the ones who shot lightning and could fly and stuff, like the god of the big 3. Not frog gods or other lame gods, they were just frogs. Given this new theory the Creationists (of any religion) can now join those pondering the thread topic cognitive dissonance free! It's just as good a theory as the Drake equation. So, OK. I'llAllowIt.gif |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:53:17 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What if we're the first one? Hey, somebody has to go first. |
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Posted: 1/28/2021 7:53:56 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Or the last one? The product of an escape pod sent on a random trajectory, it’s inhabitants mummified millions of years ago, but a trace of life survived as a biofilm on the pods humidity control device. That slime is the ancestor of all life on earth. Probably we’re somewhere in the middle, just a hum drum average life planet not even worth visiting. Well, that's a theory. And it's yours. So you got that going for you. |
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