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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:00:13 AM EDT
This is the GFS projected position next Friday (30-Sep) for the forming storm behind Fiona
 Attached FileAnd this is the European models position for the same system but a day earlier (29-Sep)  Attached File |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:09:01 AM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:12:02 AM EDT
[#2]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:13:35 AM EDT
[#3]
So this happened in the past or are you off by 10 days or so?
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:18:11 AM EDT
[#4]
Somebody’s getting something next week.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:20:46 AM EDT
[#5]
98L will be Hermine.
I see they used Gustav one a system out in the mid Atlantic. This one looks to run the passage between Cancun and Cuba. That’s where the big ones get churning. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:21:24 AM EDT
[#6]
One to watch for sure.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:21:56 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So this happened in the past or are you off by 10 days or so? Still waking up and I'm out of coffee. I've fixed the post. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:25:06 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which system is that? Invest 98L? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/174498/202298l_jpg-2533872.JPG That's the one. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:30:00 AM EDT
[#9]
Someone tell all the New Yorkers it's much too dangerous, and they should go back now.
See this documentary for a depiction 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:34:48 AM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:37:04 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Gettin a little ahead of yourself aren't you. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/126641/two_atl_5d0_png-2533898.JPG  |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:41:02 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryA 5 day forecast track is going to be more accurate than a 10 day one and see the 5 day is much lower than what the 10 day shows. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:45:42 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A 5 day forecast track is going to be more accurate than a 10 day one and see the 5 day is much lower than what the 10 day shows. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:50:46 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: These are seven day projections, give or take. It looks pretty probable we'll get hit to some degree. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: A 5 day forecast track is going to be more accurate than a 10 day one and see the 5 day is much lower than what the 10 day shows. Possible yes. Probable no. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 8:52:51 AM EDT
[#15]
Folks around here are getting wound up. Hurricane Michael PTSD I guess. They hate when I remind them that they still live on the GoM.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 9:04:22 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryThe point he’s making is the model you’re posting this far out is wildly inaccurate especially when it’s not even a tropical storm yet. Less than half of the spaghetti strings have it coming at Florida. The only reason to post that as news is for website clicks and fear mongering. That thing has just as good of a chance at going straight and slamming into the Yucatán peninsula. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:23:04 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Gettin a little ahead of yourself aren't you. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/126641/two_atl_5d0_png-2533898.JPG Well, I did say "projected" and not "eminent". |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:27:06 AM EDT
[#18]
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.1;-81.6;4&l=wind-10m
Move the date forward to watch the projected progression. Obviously the further in the future the less likely the model. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:29:32 AM EDT
[#19]
WTF
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:33:38 AM EDT
[#20]
Today is ' Generator Day ', time to get stuff in order before the panic. Costco will be a madhouse tomorrow.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:37:32 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Today is ' Generator Day ', time to get stuff in order before the panic. Costco will be a madhouse tomorrow. Better get gas and bottled water too. Don’t forget the potted meat. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:37:40 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The point he’s making is the model you’re posting this far out is wildly inaccurate especially when it’s not even a tropical storm yet. Less than half of the spaghetti strings have it coming at Florida. The only reason to post that as news is for website clicks and fear mongering. That thing has just as good of a chance at going straight and slamming into the Yucatán peninsula. Quote HistoryQuoted: The point he’s making is the model you’re posting this far out is wildly inaccurate especially when it’s not even a tropical storm yet. Less than half of the spaghetti strings have it coming at Florida. The only reason to post that as news is for website clicks and fear mongering. That thing has just as good of a chance at going straight and slamming into the Yucatán peninsula. It doesn't have to "come at" Florida to have a significant effect on Florida. Also, florida is a big target sideways across the path of a whole lot of tropical weather. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:38:19 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Today is ' Generator Day ', time to get stuff in order before the panic. Costco will be a madhouse tomorrow. True story. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:39:47 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It doesn't have to "come at" Florida to have a significant effect on Florida. Also, florida is a big target sideways across the path of a whole lot of tropical weather. Just stop |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:39:47 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Folks around here are getting wound up. Hurricane Michael PTSD I guess. They hate when I remind them that they still live on the GoM. I’ve got two large buildings with just house wrap on them I told them they needed to use a fluid applied WRB but what do I know, I’m just a dumbass contractor. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 10:46:35 AM EDT
[#26]
Fuckin bring it ya bitch ass storm
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Posted: 9/21/2022 11:54:48 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It doesn't have to "come at" Florida to have a significant effect on Florida. Also, florida is a big target sideways across the path of a whole lot of tropical weather. The only major effect it will have if it doesn’t come at Florida is some great surf. It’s been great on the east coast between Fiona and the storm before it. Sadly I won’t be able to make it over there to enjoy said epic surf, well, epic by Fl standards. 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:03:41 PM EDT
[#28]
Like I said in the other thread: get more beer, got it.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:09:13 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Today is ' Generator Day ', time to get stuff in order before the panic. Costco will be a madhouse tomorrow. Yea... already finishing that up. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:13:21 PM EDT
[#30]
   
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:13:36 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The point he’s making is the model you’re posting this far out is wildly inaccurate especially when it’s not even a tropical storm yet. Less than half of the spaghetti strings have it coming at Florida. The only reason to post that as news is for website clicks and fear mongering. That thing has just as good of a chance at going straight and slamming into the Yucatán peninsula. Except that 3 of the 4 most consistent model runs put it on the west coast of Florida next week. One an early curve west to east at or below key west. The rest all hit..south, mid, north..? and..there is a front coming that will push it west to east. Combined with very favorable conditions ahead for potential intensity models to be cat 3+. As usual, timing and just pay attention. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:19:01 PM EDT
[#32]
Considering going out and buying a window unit now... just in case. I've wanted one for the better part of a year now that I have a generator, for the first hurricane season of my life, and I'll be honest... I'm in the "fuck that food, we can buy more" camp, but I can't sleep indoors without AC.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:36:36 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Considering going out and buying a window unit now... just in case. I've wanted one for the better part of a year now that I have a generator, for the first hurricane season of my life, and I'll be honest... I'm in the "fuck that food, we can buy more" camp, but I can't sleep indoors without AC. The same day I purchased my first genny I also purchased a 12000 BTU window unit. It's a good investment. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 12:41:41 PM EDT
[#34]
From a weather service..
Key Points 1. Disturbance 35 is predicted to become a strong hurricane in the northwest Caribbean Sea by next Tuesday. 2. The greatest threat beyond Tuesday appears to be to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Our Forecast Disturbance 35 is spreading squalls across the islands of the southeast Caribbean today. These squalls may contain wind gusts to tropical storm strength, but the disturbance has not developed a circulation center. The center of the disturbance will pass Trinidad this afternoon and move into the southeastern Caribbean tonight. Our forecast takes the center west-northwestward across the south-central Caribbean for the next 5 days. It may become a tropical depression or a tropical storm as early as Friday, followed by continued strengthening into a hurricane over the northwest Caribbean by early next Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, steering currents across the Gulf of Mexico would indicate a potential track toward the northeastern Gulf, east of Mobile, AL and most likely into Florida. However, much will depend on quickly the storm develops and how strong it becomes prior to reaching the northwest Caribbean next Tuesday. We do not think that this storm will move toward the north-central or northwest Gulf Coast. Westerly winds aloft across the northern Gulf should steer it toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In general, confidence in the forecast track is average for the first 5 days then below average beyond then. The intensity forecast is more uncertain beyond the next 2-3 days. It is possible that this storm becomes stronger than we are forecasting, so confidence in the intensity is below normal due to disagreement in the models. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:05:57 PM EDT
[#35]
I'm too uneducated to know how to successfully post a Twitter post but saw this with the pic "Here's what we know so far about tropical activity in the Gulf late next week"
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:11:15 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The same day I purchased my first genny I also purchased a 12000 BTU window unit. It's a good investment. There are a bunch of transplants fixing to learn some lessons. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:24:58 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Considering going out and buying a window unit now... just in case. I've wanted one for the better part of a year now that I have a generator, for the first hurricane season of my life, and I'll be honest... I'm in the "fuck that food, we can buy more" camp, but I can't sleep indoors without AC. I have 2 windows units and a portable AC, but for tornadoes in the summer, here in TN. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:27:46 PM EDT
[#38]
I better warn others
This has never happened before down here |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:30:57 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Better get gas and bottled water too. Don’t forget the potted meat. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Today is ' Generator Day ', time to get stuff in order before the panic. Costco will be a madhouse tomorrow. Better get gas and bottled water too. Don’t forget the potted meat. And liquor, can't forget the liquor!! |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:31:48 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Considering going out and buying a window unit now... just in case. I've wanted one for the better part of a year now that I have a generator, for the first hurricane season of my life, and I'll be honest... I'm in the "fuck that food, we can buy more" camp, but I can't sleep indoors without AC. Quote HistoryQuoted: Considering going out and buying a window unit now... just in case. I've wanted one for the better part of a year now that I have a generator, for the first hurricane season of my life, and I'll be honest... I'm in the "fuck that food, we can buy more" camp, but I can't sleep indoors without AC. One step ahead of you. Have it mounted in a piece of 3/4" plywood to fit my SGD. A/C went out last summer and it was a backorder part because I had to have a ultra high SEER 2 stage unit when I built my house. Took about 10 days to get. We slept nice and comfy though. Quoted: Quoted: Folks around here are getting wound up. Hurricane Michael PTSD I guess. They hate when I remind them that they still live on the GoM. I’ve got two large buildings with just house wrap on them I told them they needed to use a fluid applied WRB but what do I know, I’m just a dumbass contractor. I have ~35 houses under construction right now. Waiting until Monday to have the dumpsters picked up. Hope I'm not waiting too long. 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:44:33 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 98L will be Hermine. I see they used Gustav one a system out in the mid Atlantic. This one looks to run the passage between Cancun and Cuba. That’s where the big ones get churning. Oh, man, I hate that. I remember Wilma. So glad I sold that Key West house last month. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:53:16 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, I did say "projected" and not " |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:57:07 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: One step ahead of you. Have it mounted in a piece of 3/4" plywood to fit my SGD. A/C went out last summer and it was a backorder part because I had to have a ultra high SEER 2 stage unit when I built my house. Took about 10 days to get. We slept nice and comfy though. I have ~35 houses under construction right now. Waiting until Monday to have the dumpsters picked up. Hope I'm not waiting too long. These two buildings are 12 unit condos that are occupied. Please go east Mr. Hurricane. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:58:20 PM EDT
[#44]
You guys are really making me question my work trip next week.
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Posted: 9/21/2022 1:59:05 PM EDT
[#45]
I'm moving the ARFCOM Yacht from Fort Lauderdale to SWFL over the weekend. My neighbors are pissed after all the jokes about how hurricanes follow me - this one shows up 72 hours after I get back
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:00:57 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm moving the ARFCOM Yacht from Fort Lauderdale to SWFL over the weekend. My neighbors are pissed after all the jokes about how hurricanes follow me - this one shows up 72 hours after I get back If that's the case please keep the SS ARFCOM away from the western panhandle, please! |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:12:53 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Considering going out and buying a window unit now... just in case. I've wanted one for the better part of a year now that I have a generator, for the first hurricane season of my life, and I'll be honest... I'm in the "fuck that food, we can buy more" camp, but I can't sleep indoors without AC. you can't buy more food when the powers out, and the stores are all closed. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:27:18 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: These two buildings are 12 unit condos that are occupied. Please go east Mr. Hurricane. Oh. Yeah that sucks. 
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Posted: 9/21/2022 2:34:20 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: you can't buy more food when the powers out, and the stores are all closed. I think most of the Publix have backup power. IIRC, there was some legislation a few years back that required grocery stores and gas stations to have backup power. |
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Posted: 9/21/2022 3:17:55 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm too uneducated to know how to successfully post a Twitter post but saw this with the pic "Here's what we know so far about tropical activity in the Gulf late next week" https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdG4GW8XgAADalc?format=jpg&name=large That map. 
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