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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:42:00 PM EDT
[#1]
It’s only going to get worse from here.
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:43:35 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s only going to get worse from here. That's what I was worried about. I need to grab a some of the more obscure calibers I shoot when they pop up. This is annoying. But, supply and demand! |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:44:59 PM EDT
[#3]
If Creepy Pedo Uncle Joe al XiDin decides to ...
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:45:42 PM EDT
[#4]
We don’t need another thread on this topic until the last box of common calibers is sold.
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:46:39 PM EDT
[#5]
Its all about calculations and numbers. If they see this going on for a few years, they may absorb another manu or two.
If they see this lasting another month, they’ll tell us to get bent and maybe add another shift for a bit. If they see this as the new norm, they will build whole loading warehouses. It is always too up and down to commit any capitol to one or the other especially when the wind changes directions every 4 yrs. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:47:15 PM EDT
[#6]
This time you had one of the largest ammunition manufacturers in the country, Remington, go bankrupt and that disrupted Supply. & you had covid-19 so companies were unable to get toxic chemical type of components from China for quite a while. (Lead, mercury, etc) and some had to shut down here do to covid-19. And gun sales are through the roof, many to 1st time buyers who need ammo for their new guns.
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:49:25 PM EDT
[#7]
Sandy Hook ... you bought it because you thought it would be outlawed.
Today ... you buy it because you may have to use it. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:52:12 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We don’t need another thread on this topic until the last box of common calibers is sold.  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 7:52:12 PM EDT
[#9]
I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework.
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:00:53 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:01:21 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. He's not |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:04:03 PM EDT
[#12]
Quoted: What are your thoughts? I am being told by some that this will not be like after Sandy (when 5.56 was pushing $2 a round), because production has increase a lot since then. However, I don't see why production capitol investment by ammo manufacturers would have been wise after Sandy. They had to have known the market would drop back down to 'normal' again (which it did). I don't know? Do you see ammo going up more and more in coming months? The libs have nothing to stop them now. And they are beyond motivated. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:04:34 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: do share He is full of shit |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:05:18 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. Sure you are. The thousands of people running bots and searching every nook and cranny of the internet must have just missed that ammo that you are buying. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:06:03 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's what I was worried about. I need to grab a some of the more obscure calibers I shoot when they pop up. This is annoying. But, supply and demand! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It’s only going to get worse from here. That's what I was worried about. I need to grab a some of the more obscure calibers I shoot when they pop up. This is annoying. But, supply and demand! Good luck. The less common calibers are only produced by major manufacturers occasionally. I don’t expect they making now or in the foreseeable future. What’s already out there is all there is. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:06:28 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework.  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:08:58 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He's not Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. He's not He probably paid those prices. Stores like Optics Planet list those prices and sell tons of ammo but never ship it. They just keep pushing backorders back further and further. Then a year later they cancel them. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:12:56 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. Seriously getting ripped off! Don't you know that CTD has 9mm @ .08 and 5.56 @ .22? Plus the 7.62 battle packs for $99 shipped...  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:16:15 PM EDT
[#19]
I could use some .50AE......If anyone got a line.....
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:17:01 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. Components are currently running around that. Why not just say you are reloading? |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:17:40 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We don’t need another thread on this topic until the last box of common calibers is sold. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:19:43 PM EDT
[#22]
Really OP? You couldn't determine everyone's thoughts from the myriad other ammo shortage threads?
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:22:11 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's what I was worried about. I need to grab a some of the more obscure calibers I shoot when they pop up. This is annoying. But, supply and demand! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: It’s only going to get worse from here. That's what I was worried about. I need to grab a some of the more obscure calibers I shoot when they pop up. This is annoying. But, supply and demand! Good call. Unfortunately it's going to be years (if ever) before you see some of the more obscure cartridges on shelves again. After the Sandy Hook scare a lot of factory loadings never came back into production. ETA- I expect things will look much different even if the demand drops to 2018 levels in a few years. I wouldn't be surprised to find that 10mm is cheaper and easier to find than 40 S&W for example. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 8:56:20 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. OP was probably referring to Sportsmans Guide's backorder. Here's a hint, they will never deliver. I was with them for over a decade, and cancelled many years ago, because of that bullshit. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:02:31 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sandy Hook ... you bought it because you thought it would be outlawed. Today ... you buy it because you may have to use it. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:03:41 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. Can we cheat and copy yours? |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:09:33 PM EDT
[#27]
Quoted: What are your thoughts? I am being told by some that this will not be like after Sandy (when 5.56 was pushing $2 a round), because production has increase a lot since then. However, I don't see why production capitol investment by ammo manufacturers would have been wise after Sandy. They had to have known the market would drop back down to 'normal' again (which it did). I don't know? Do you see ammo going up more and more in coming months? This is not like 2013. People aren't simply buying fearing bans; they're buying because they think they might need to shoot a motherfucker and don't want to miss the boat. It's a bit more like the .22 crunch from back then - a ton of people realized they were retarded and should have been buying .22 for years while it was cheap and available. It took a loooonnnnng time for people to get topped up on rimfire. Now a bunch of people are trying to get topped up on... basically everything, on top of many millions of new shooters starting from zero. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:11:20 PM EDT
[#28]
I would bet every supplier around the globe is trying to get their products into America right now
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:11:50 PM EDT
[#29]
Between 18-24 months and availability will return. I'm assuming that - on the production side - there are no massive changes in law or regulation.
If there are changes like that? It's anyone's guess and all the guesses are simply shots in the dark. Same goes for sale/possession law changes. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:14:57 PM EDT
[#30]
This is my conundrum - I’ve got a Glock 21 and a few hundred rounds of .45 I want to sell. I just don’t shoot it. Do I wait for shit to get worse???
My other thought is to buy a 10mm barrel, extractor and recoil spring. But I doubt I’m finding any 10mm ammo anytime soon. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:33:42 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework. I don’t believe you. |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 9:49:17 PM EDT
[#32]
Who didn’t see this coming?
And why don’t you reload? |
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Posted: 1/17/2021 10:14:51 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm buying 9mm 115 grn fmj for $.26 pr and .223 55 grn fmj for $.39 pr. Delivered ... Do your homework.  Attached File |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:15:11 AM EDT
[#34]
My fort is worth more than my 401k, and my 401k is up almost 30%.
You wanna buy some ammo? |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:19:45 AM EDT
[#35]
There is a new thread about ammo every day.
Scroll down the pages and search. There is better info on previous threads than any on this one! |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:19:46 AM EDT
[#36]
Powder was selling for $100/pound at the gunshow this weekend. Primers $125/1000. .40 ammo $40/25 rounds FMJ.
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:23:10 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Good luck. The less common calibers are only produced by major manufacturers occasionally. I don’t expect they making now or in the foreseeable future. What’s already out there is all there is. Warehouses are also using this as a reason to push old stock out, so the situation is likely worse than it seems so far. I recently bought new 300WM with 2005 and 2008 lot codes |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:25:31 AM EDT
[#38]
You know we almost have this exact thread already;
https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Will-Ammo-Manufacturers-Add-Production-Capacity-/5-2415530/ A year ago I could buy 9mm Blazer for 250 shipped (to my door) from PSA. People only create these threads when the market is in panic. Businesses don't function like that (or at least the decent ones) Not to mention, how do we know that the big manufacturers haven't been making the very investments you're speaking to? |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:28:08 AM EDT
[#39]
I'd say 12-18 months then prices and availability will normalize.
There won't be any laws anymore restrictive than what we have now. It's all chicken little shit. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:30:00 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'd say 12-18 months then prices and availability will normalize. There won't be any laws anymore restrictive than what we have now. It's all chicken little shit. Ammo import ban is an EO away. That's the only thing that has me actually nervous right now. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:32:12 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s only going to get worse from here. Depends. If unrest picks up, things will get worse. If there's a major mass shooting, things will get worse. Barring those two, I think we'll see a gradual return to normalcy. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:34:45 AM EDT
[#42]
It’s going up more.
Biden Administration will ban importation of ammunition into the USA. That will further reduce supply. Demand will probably rise as Spring time comes and weather improves in the northern states. Right now .223 is about $1 a round, I expect that by April it will be $2. I think current demand may see a small drop over time, but the addition of hundreds of thousands of new gun owners means we’ll never see demand return to 2019 levels. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:36:24 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I would bet every supplier around the globe is trying to get their products into America right now If Biden starts talking about gun control on TV, the panic and high prices will continue. If restrictive legislation is passed it'll continue. If neither happens it'll start to normalize within 6 months (or whenever there's a significant reduction in demand). |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:42:43 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think current demand may see a small drop over time, but the addition of hundreds of thousands of new gun owners means we'll never see demand return to 2019 levels. If he does ban importation then yes it'll skyrocket. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 2:55:20 AM EDT
[#45]
IF;
Biden doesn't pursue any additional gun regulations/ammo/mag restrictions, AND No States pursue any additional gun regulations/ammo/mag restrictions, AND Biden doesn't push more draconian rules, restrictions and lockdowns on COVID, AND No States push more draconian rules, restrictions and lockdowns on COVID, AND Biden doesn't spend us into oblivion with his attempts to placate the people losing homes and businesses, AND There is no violent civil unrest here in the United States, AND The Federal Government figures it out and backs off the 'domestic extremist' label they're giving a entire segment of the population, AND Ammo manufacturers continue current production (or can manage to increase it meaningfully), AND People just fucking give up trying to find and realize that they have enough, or will never get enough. 2 years from ALL of these being completed; .22 ammo will start to become affordable. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 11:05:30 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Components are currently running around that. Why not just say you are reloading? Oh, really? You’re buying small pistol and rifle primers somewhere? |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 11:08:58 AM EDT
[#47]
If you don't already have an ammo fort you're fucked. This will last for a long while.
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Posted: 1/18/2021 11:22:12 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s going up more. Biden Administration will ban importation of ammunition into the USA. That will further reduce supply. Demand will probably rise as Spring time comes and weather improves in the northern states. Right now .223 is about $1 a round, I expect that by April it will be $2. I think current demand may see a small drop over time, but the addition of hundreds of thousands of new gun owners means we’ll never see demand return to 2019 levels. I tend to agree, unfortunately. An import ban by EO is the exact sort of thing that HoJo would think they can slip past the Fudd’s so as not to hurt Dem’s in the midterms. But the ripple effect on retail store shelves will be felt. If there are that many new gun owners, that’s a significant demand increase. But it takes time and investment to build out manufacturing capacity. So capacity doesn’t just spring from the soil the moment that demand increases. You’re going to have to see a prolonged demand spike before companies think it’s safe to invest in increased manufacturing capacity. I think the domestic oil industry is a good analog for this. These companies know that they can invest billions in increasing production capacity in a high demand market only to have supply eventually catch up to and then exceed waning demand, causing their investment to return cents on the dollar. As much as we like to stockpile, we all stop at some point. I’m guilty of having topped out on some pistol calibers and .22LR. Wish I hadn’t. But when you have limited discretionary income to spend, sometimes you buy ammo, but sometimes you buy guns, sometimes you buy accessories and sometimes you buy optics. So every company or prospective company is doing the same sort of thing we are and trying to predict what’s going to happen in the next few years. If they fear that demand might wane or that the regulatory environment will become adversarial, that’s going to deter them investing in capacity expansion. They’d rather sell everything they can currently produce at higher margins than lose money on an expanded production investment. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 11:25:51 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It’s going up more. Biden Administration will ban importation of ammunition into the USA. That will further reduce supply. Demand will probably rise as Spring time comes and weather improves in the northern states. Right now .223 is about $1 a round, I expect that by April it will be $2. I think current demand may see a small drop over time, but the addition of hundreds of thousands of new gun owners means we’ll never see demand return to 2019 levels. Something to keep in mind is that not all of the new buyers are actually shooters. A lot of them are people that got scared and just want a gun and a box of shells to put in the nightstand. I’d love it if all of them are hardcore new pro-2A activist shooters. But a lot of them are people who will take that gun out once to shoot it and think that a box of 50 rounds is all they really need. |
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Posted: 1/18/2021 11:30:04 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you don't already have an ammo fort you're fucked. This will last for a long while. Well said indeed. |
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