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Posted: 9/22/2021 3:57:56 PM EDT
I saw this article a couple weeks ago and it's been bothering me.  "To ease the pressure of rising raw material prices"  Or to raise money?  To hold on to dollars for the Evergrande bonds by substituting paid for strategic oil for oil imports that would have to be purchased with dollars?  Second thought, no country that relies on oil and food imports sells strategic oil and food reserves, plus strategic metals like copper and aluminum, if they're planning on a war in the near term.  

Didn't work to reduce the price of oil BTW, oil is up a little bit since then.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/9/china-sells-oil-reserves-to-lower-prices-in-unprecedented-move
China made an unprecedented intervention in the global oil market, releasing crude from its strategic reserve for the first time with the explicit aim of lowering prices.

The announcement comes amid surging energy costs in China, not just for oil but also for coal and natural gas, and electricity shortages in some provinces that have forced some factories to cut production. Inflation is rapidly rising too, a political headache for Beijing. Oil slumped.

In a late statement on Thursday, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said the country had tapped its giant oil reserves to "to ease the pressure of rising raw material prices." It didn't offer further details, but people familiar with the matter said the statement referred to millions of barrels the government offered in mid-July.

The Chinese stockpiling agency also said a "normalized" rotation of crude oil in the state reserves is "an important way for the reserves to play its role in balancing the market", indicating that it may continue to release barrels. The agency said that putting national reserve crude oil on the market through open auctions "will better stabilize domestic market supply and demand".

No one answered calls to the press offices of China's State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission seeking comments outside the regular business hours.

China is the world's largest oil importer and over the past decade has built a huge reserve of the commodity. The buffer differs from strategic petroleum reserves, known as SPR, held in the U.S. and Europe, which are mostly only tapped during supply outages and wars. China however is signalling it's willing to use its reserve to try to influence the market.

"On its face, it's a pretty clear statement of an intent to use the SPR to dampen oil prices for domestic refiners," said Bob McNally, a former senior White House policy adviser who now runs Rapidan Energy Group, a consulting firm in Washington.

The statement comes after China's factory-gate inflation accelerated to a 13-year high, and just a month after the White House publicly asked the OPEC oil cartel to pump more crude amid rising gasoline prices in America. Together, the actions in Beijing and Washington suggest that the world's two largest energy consumers see $70-$75 a barrel as a red line for the price of oil. Hurricane Ida has also eliminated a swath of U.S. crude production, affecting supplies to China's Unipec.

Brent crude fell as much as $1.36 a barrel to $71.24 in London, erasing earlier gains. West Texas Intermediate had a similar reversal.
China has been selling other commodities from its strategic reserves, including copper, aluminum and grains. In the past, Beijing rarely confirmed the releases, which have tended to filter into the market via trader talk. The public release is being seen by many as an attempt to maximize the impact of the move.

Thursday's statement started by saying the release was carried out "with the approval of the State Council," language that Chinese researchers took as an indication that it was directed by China's most senior political leaders.
View Quote

Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:09:01 PM EDT
[#1]
They either expect deflation or they're in danger of collapsing due to market pressures. My guess is the latter.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:09:50 PM EDT
[#2]
China's "economy" is a house of cards .... unfortunately we are well on our way there also
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:11:36 PM EDT
[#3]
Nothing they do is good. Start there and work forward.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:16:13 PM EDT
[#4]
It is really strange, that’s for sure.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:20:59 PM EDT
[#5]
Curious.

Has China made similar moves before?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:22:28 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
China's "economy" is a house of cards .... unfortunately we are well on our way there also
View Quote
This. Race to the bottom.

Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:23:39 PM EDT
[#7]
Wasn’t it just reported that Pelosi just bought $1,000,000 in evergrande bonds Monday?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:29:13 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:Curious.


Has China made similar moves before?
View Quote


"Unprecedented"  Just started this summer.  Some of the auctioned metal has been in storage for 46 years.

Reuters, August 2021
China's state reserves administration said on Friday it would sell off a total 150,000 tonnes of its strategic metal stockpiles via public bidding on Sept. 1, in the third round of auctions aimed at cooling high prices.


The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said in three separate notices it would auction 30,000 tonnes of copper, 50,000 tonnes of zinc and 70,000 tonnes of aluminium.

The rare series of state reserve sales has so far seen a total of 270,000 tonnes of the three metals released. The last auction on July 29 saw the administration sell 170,000 tonnes of metal, including 90,000 tonnes of aluminium.

Almost 4,600 tonnes of the aluminium on offer dates back to the 1970s, having entered storage in 1975-76 after being produced in Canada, Australia, France and - in the case of a tiny batch of 0.89 tonnes - West Germany.


The oldest zinc being sold entered storage in 1983 and the oldest copper in 1981.
View Quote

Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:33:07 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
They either expect deflation or they're in danger of collapsing due to market pressures. My guess is the latter.
View Quote


Or they know their construction industry is about to collapse, which will crush related commodities prices, which will trigger a broader commodities trading crunch, and drag down the rest with them.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:35:07 PM EDT
[#10]
It seems so much like the mid 1930s.  The question for me is, will China move toward war in an effort to escape economic implosion?  Will they have time?  The best thing for the world right now would be for the Chinese economy to implode.  Yeah, no more cheap shit...  But the CCP would lose it's 'mandate of heaven' and the party might finally lose it's grip on power.  Then they would lose finally lose their hold on the rest of the world.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:36:03 PM EDT
[#11]
Does China ever make a move that is not an asshole thing to do?  
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:36:40 PM EDT
[#12]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Or they know their construction industry is about to collapse, which will crush related commodities prices, which will trigger a broader commodities trading crunch, and drag down the rest with them.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
They either expect deflation or they're in danger of collapsing due to market pressures. My guess is the latter.


Or they know their construction industry is about to collapse, which will crush related commodities prices, which will trigger a broader commodities trading crunch, and drag down the rest with them.


Ah soooo.  

Plus, they need Cash to shore up some of those bad bonds.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:37:45 PM EDT
[#13]
Meh what percent of the reserves is it?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:37:53 PM EDT
[#14]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
It seems so much like the mid 1930s.  The question for me is, will China move toward war in an effort to escape economic implosion?  Will they have time?  The best thing for the world right now would be for the Chinese economy to implode.  Yeah, no more cheap shit...  But the CCP would lose it's 'mandate of heaven' and the party might finally lose it's grip on power.  Then they would lose finally lose their hold on the rest of the world.
View Quote


Would they be selling strategic reserves if planning for war?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:42:27 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Would they be selling strategic reserves if planning for war?
View Quote


I have no idea, honestly.  The economic stuff is way beyond my scope.  It just seems that desperate nations do desperate things.  Would they do this to fund the war?  If they implode economically they have a huge disparity of military aged males without women and now potentially without jobs.  Would they not be a huge source of dissent and insurrection?  Would now be the best time to find an external enemy to blame everything on?  Spark an incident with the West or with Taiwan?  Put all those MAMs into the meat grinder just for the survival of the Party?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:47:48 PM EDT
[#16]
There was a story on Youtube that the CCP has taken funds meant for China's retiredment system, and used it to fund the "Belt & Road Initiative," and some of the 3rd world countries participating in the BRI are in default because the Chinese lent them money that can't be repaid.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:51:32 PM EDT
[#17]
China is sweetheart?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:52:45 PM EDT
[#18]
China is a house of cards.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:52:50 PM EDT
[#19]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Meh what percent of the reserves is it?
View Quote
The oil auction isn't quantified.

Reuters: "Based on past stockpiling activity, analysts estimate China's strategic reserves hold 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes of copper, 800,000-900,000 tonnes of aluminium and 250,000-400,000 tonnes of zinc."

So that's about 20% of their aluminum sold in two auctions.  You need aluminum to build ships and planes.  At least a quarter of their zinc was auctioned but only an insignificant amount of their copper.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:54:13 PM EDT
[#20]
Going out of business sale?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:54:54 PM EDT
[#21]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Would they be selling strategic reserves if planning for war?
View Quote

Because they plan on buying it back at a lower price?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:55:38 PM EDT
[#22]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Nothing they do is good. Start there and work forward.
View Quote

Exactly.

Hopefully the country completely collapses.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:55:58 PM EDT
[#23]
Any war would probably be pretty short.  Short enough that they would probably not need to replace destroyed equipment while they were still fighting.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:56:20 PM EDT
[#24]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
It seems so much like the mid 1930s.  The question for me is, will China move toward war in an effort to escape economic implosion?  Will they have time?  The best thing for the world right now would be for the Chinese economy to implode.  Yeah, no more cheap shit...  But the CCP would lose it's 'mandate of heaven' and the party might finally lose it's grip on power.  Then they would lose finally lose their hold on the rest of the world.
View Quote


Wonder what a capitalist China would look like.
For the last 20 years, many Chinese have gotten a taste of the "good life", owning homes, cars, tech etc.
And despite China's best attempts, many know about the world outside of their commie homeland.

Then again, I wonder what a capitalist USA would look like. One free of government interference, picking winners and losers, rewarding loyalists and helping pull the ladder of success up behind megawokecorp.

Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:56:32 PM EDT
[#25]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


"Unprecedented"  Just started this summer.  Some of the auctioned metal has been in storage for 46 years.

Reuters, August 2021

View Quote

That is weird as fuck.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:57:10 PM EDT
[#26]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
There was a story on Youtube that the CCP has taken funds meant for China's retiredment system, and used it to fund the "Belt & Road Initiative," and some of the 3rd world countries participating in the BRI are in default because the Chinese lent them money that can't be repaid.
View Quote

Can't be repaid, or can't be repaid in money?

China is IMF now?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 4:58:26 PM EDT
[#27]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
There was a story on Youtube that the CCP has taken funds meant for China's retiredment system, and used it to fund the "Belt & Road Initiative," and some of the 3rd world countries participating in the BRI are in default because the Chinese lent them money that can't be repaid.
View Quote




Huh, we have been doing that for decades,.....stealing from social security.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:03:14 PM EDT
[#28]
Ehhh, when they start selling off their gold reserves I'll start thinking someone is really fvked financially.


That stuff they are selling now is probably all our old junkyard scrap.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:07:25 PM EDT
[#29]
China = smoke and mirrors. Just like the old Soviet Union.

Communism just doesn't work well long-term, never has.

We shall see.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:12:15 PM EDT
[#30]
I wonder how much of what's supposed to be in their reserves still is - it's been decades and they have a serious problem with the paperwork saying one thing and the warehouse holding a much different thing.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:15:30 PM EDT
[#31]
They're probably selling their reserves so that they can more easily fake production numbers. (laundering)
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:22:53 PM EDT
[#32]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Nothing they do is good. Start there and work forward.
View Quote

Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:26:26 PM EDT
[#33]
They could be selling strategic reserves, as a Machiavellian plan to make the world think they are Not planning for war, when in fact they are counting on it.

Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:26:58 PM EDT
[#34]
Oh boy.

The last time they did something like this the Qing dynasty collapsed
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:29:14 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Oh boy.

The last time they did something like this the Qing dynasty collapsed
View Quote


Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:31:57 PM EDT
[#36]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Any war would probably be pretty short.  Short enough that they would probably not need to replace destroyed equipment while they were still fighting.
View Quote

When have I heard that before?

Oh yeah! Every war ever that they thought would be over by Christmas!
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:33:58 PM EDT
[#37]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History


Fuck no you don't want that kind of collapse!

For prc China to have complete economic disintegration like that in this day and age would bring down the entire world's economy with them and cause a world depression probably twice as worse as the 1930s
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:34:14 PM EDT
[#38]
Double tap
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:34:15 PM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:
I saw this article a couple weeks ago and it's been bothering me.  "To ease the pressure of rising raw material prices"  Or to raise money?  To hold on to dollars for the Evergrande bonds by substituting paid for strategic oil for oil imports that would have to be purchased with dollars?  Second thought, no country that relies on oil and food imports sells strategic oil and food reserves, plus strategic metals like copper and aluminum, if they're planning on a war in the near term.  

Didn't work to reduce the price of oil BTW, oil is up a little bit since then.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/9/china-sells-oil-reserves-to-lower-prices-in-unprecedented-move
China made an unprecedented intervention in the global oil market, releasing crude from its strategic reserve for the first time with the explicit aim of lowering prices.

The announcement comes amid surging energy costs in China, not just for oil but also for coal and natural gas, and electricity shortages in some provinces that have forced some factories to cut production. Inflation is rapidly rising too, a political headache for Beijing. Oil slumped.

In a late statement on Thursday, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said the country had tapped its giant oil reserves to "to ease the pressure of rising raw material prices." It didn't offer further details, but people familiar with the matter said the statement referred to millions of barrels the government offered in mid-July.

The Chinese stockpiling agency also said a "normalized" rotation of crude oil in the state reserves is "an important way for the reserves to play its role in balancing the market", indicating that it may continue to release barrels. The agency said that putting national reserve crude oil on the market through open auctions "will better stabilize domestic market supply and demand".

No one answered calls to the press offices of China's State Council and the National Development and Reform Commission seeking comments outside the regular business hours.

China is the world's largest oil importer and over the past decade has built a huge reserve of the commodity. The buffer differs from strategic petroleum reserves, known as SPR, held in the U.S. and Europe, which are mostly only tapped during supply outages and wars. China however is signalling it's willing to use its reserve to try to influence the market.

"On its face, it's a pretty clear statement of an intent to use the SPR to dampen oil prices for domestic refiners," said Bob McNally, a former senior White House policy adviser who now runs Rapidan Energy Group, a consulting firm in Washington.

The statement comes after China's factory-gate inflation accelerated to a 13-year high, and just a month after the White House publicly asked the OPEC oil cartel to pump more crude amid rising gasoline prices in America. Together, the actions in Beijing and Washington suggest that the world's two largest energy consumers see $70-$75 a barrel as a red line for the price of oil. Hurricane Ida has also eliminated a swath of U.S. crude production, affecting supplies to China's Unipec.

Brent crude fell as much as $1.36 a barrel to $71.24 in London, erasing earlier gains. West Texas Intermediate had a similar reversal.
China has been selling other commodities from its strategic reserves, including copper, aluminum and grains. In the past, Beijing rarely confirmed the releases, which have tended to filter into the market via trader talk. The public release is being seen by many as an attempt to maximize the impact of the move.

Thursday's statement started by saying the release was carried out "with the approval of the State Council," language that Chinese researchers took as an indication that it was directed by China's most senior political leaders.
View Quote

View Quote


It can be argued that sale of some of those reserves is a last step before (in their minds) war becomes a necessity.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:34:44 PM EDT
[#40]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Fuck no you don't want that kind of collapse!

For prc China to have complete economic disintegration like that in this day and age would bring down the entire world's economy with them and cause a world depression probably twice as worse as the 1930s
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Fuck no you don't want that kind of collapse!

For prc China to have complete economic disintegration like that in this day and age would bring down the entire world's economy with them and cause a world depression probably twice as worse as the 1930s


And I'd rather help shoulder the burden than leave it to "future generations" to deal with.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:36:21 PM EDT
[#41]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
They either expect deflation or they're in danger of collapsing due to market pressures. My guess is the latter.
View Quote


Economics works differently under a totalitarian regime than it does under a free market government.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 5:44:52 PM EDT
[#42]
On the oil front, they're trying to fight SA / Opec+.


And it will be a losing battle.


OPEC+ - specifically SA - has raised the fix priced to China for oil several times. Faster than the CCP planned economic can pass the price increases on in an organized manner.  This is leading to vast product shortages as China has just ceased to accept oil imports, as the 'planners' know better.


So they're battling the shortages by selling off their national stock piles.



China is also in a coal war with Australia.  So they're doing the same thing there.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 6:10:38 PM EDT
[#43]
I would say the best time to sell is right before you think the market is going to tank.  If their economy goes to the shitter, the market will tank - so there is that.  But if this can delay that, the powers that be stay in power longer - so that can also be considered.

I suspect, kind of, that if they are prepping for war with Twain.  They probably should do this - they will at a minimum get lots of boycott after an attack, plus this will put their industries on a good footing before battle.

That said, plenty of news lately about some large real estate firms going belly up - so perhaps this is a round about attempt to stave off that.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 9:04:55 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Fuck no you don't want that kind of collapse!

For prc China to have complete economic disintegration like that in this day and age would bring down the entire world's economy with them and cause a world depression probably twice as worse as the 1930s
View Quote

It is the only way anything gets fixed.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 9:15:08 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Going out of business sale?
View Quote
Let's hope
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 9:30:30 PM EDT
[#46]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

Because they plan on buying it back at a lower price?
View Quote


Because they have already built what they want to build plus back ups?
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 9:35:42 PM EDT
[#47]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Wasn’t it just reported that Pelosi just bought $1,000,000 in evergrande bonds Monday?
View Quote

Please let it be true.
Link Posted: 9/22/2021 9:37:13 PM EDT
[#48]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Fuck no you don't want that kind of collapse!

For prc China to have complete economic disintegration like that in this day and age would bring down the entire world's economy with them and cause a world depression probably twice as worse as the 1930s
View Quote

Gonna happen anyway, but the recovery will be faster IF we dump the central banks.
Link Posted: 9/23/2021 9:15:02 AM EDT
[#49]
tag
Link Posted: 9/23/2021 9:30:17 AM EDT
[#50]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


And I'd rather help shoulder the burden than leave it to "future generations" to deal with.
View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:


Fuck no you don't want that kind of collapse!

For prc China to have complete economic disintegration like that in this day and age would bring down the entire world's economy with them and cause a world depression probably twice as worse as the 1930s


And I'd rather help shoulder the burden than leave it to "future generations" to deal with.


My man! We don’t walk away from trouble hoping someone stronger can deal with it. It’s up to us, and we got this. Better now while my sons are young and we still have some fighters left that know what freedom tastes like.
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