In layman's terms. I believe I understand the basics (government spending, Ukraine, pandemic policies, etc). Until recently I believed things would eventually shake out and stabilize. Things would be a bit worse off than pre-pandemic, but it would just be the new normal.

Now it seems that not only is it bad right now, but that its also going to get much worse. I was 18 years old during the last big recession, but now as a 31 year old with a growing family, the hair on the back of my neck is starting to stand up. Thankfully my family is prepared to weather a potential economic calamity, but it is still unnerving.

Simply, what the hell is going on and what is going to happen? Is all the doom and gloom I see warranted?

I found this recent Seminar by Peter Zeihan helpful.

Well I’m no economic genius but as long as the current group are running things it will only get worse

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Mortgage-rates-5-5-surge-faster-than-expected-prompting-lower-home-sales-forecasts/5-2540131/?page=55

If you have any real interest in it, there’s a lot to unpack here.

Pay attention to HDGator’s explanations.    If you encounter terms you don’t understand, look them up.

I'm no expert but the fed and government were able to expand the money supply without a lot of negative consequences when productivity was increasing, but they screwed up bad when they expanded the money supply to record levels and spent trillions on covid stimulus, while locking down the economy. They created a lot of money at a time when goods are scarce. Now they are trying to limit the damage from that stupid decision before we end up paying $10 a gallon for gas and $1 an egg. To do that they need to cause a recession and probably a bad one. Either we suffer through high inflation or a bad recession. I don't see a good outcome with the current group in charge. A good start would be increasing oil drilling to what we had when Trump was in office and building the pipelines that Biden canceled, but that won't happen. I expect price controls next.

The biggest thing as i see it is that there is little to no stability or little that is predictable in what's going on currently.  even during the height of the pandemic you would walk into a grocery store and all the toilet paper would be gone and you would think to your self well i suppose that makes sense people are worried they will be locked in their house unable to get more toiletpaper...... stupid but at least you could follow the logic of it.  in the current environment there seems to be no rhyme or reason to what's happening or being done about things.  cant find anyone to hire, house prices through the roof, baby formula gone, fuel costs to the moon, inflation, stagflation, supply chain issues and there seem to be no adults in the room.

we have gone damn near a year with the current administration flip flopping or outright lying about things and worse of all either not doing anything about the issues or doing stuff that is just making it worse

30 year cycle.if a recession starts what is the gov and fed going to do while inflation is running? Reduce interest rates? QE? Send out more cash?

Hmmm its almost like there is nowhere left to run or hide. I expected this situation a long time ago so I'll admit I was wrong the first QE didnt cause the inflation I thought it would . but the inflation is here now. Good luck.

I'm no expert either.  All of the info above is great at a macro/global level, though to be fair we've never been in a situation quite like this one with supply chain disruptions and QT decreasing the money supply (and we're only a few days into that).  Markets hate uncertainty.

I'm going to respond a bit differently as I've lived through a few economic ups and downs.  For the most part I was unaffected because I was never unemployed.

The question you need to ask is "How do I protect myself and my family finances from a recession?"

First, look at your industry (and your wife's if she's employed).  Is your industry fairly recession-proof?  Does your job rely on other people having discretionary funds or do you work for a company that provides a necessary service?  Because the very first place consumers cut when money gets tight is discretionary/luxury spending - eating out, entertainment, travel, hotel, cruises, vacations, etc.  OTOH if you're an HVAC tech in Florida you'd have to mess up pretty badly to lose your job.

If an economic downturn will kill your industry then you need to find something else now, not after you become unemployed and you're competing with 100 other applicants for one open position.

Second, suppose your job is secure.  Your task now is to make yourself even more valuable as an employee... just in case.  Example: if your employer offers tuition reimbursements then go ahead and get that additional cert or work on your advanced degree.

Third, household budget.  Prices will go up and likely will still go up faster than wages despite the Fed's efforts to tame inflation.  Figure out now where you can cut.  It helps to track expenses for a month or so to see where you're bleeding $$$ unnecessarily.

Fourth, debt.  Hopefully you have none except a mortgage and the interest rate is low.  If your credit card balances are increasing monthly to pay for household expenses it's past time to act, because interest rates are going up.

We're going to see 6 months to a year of harder times IMO. A lot of jobs that were added the past 2 years are going to get downsized. 401ks will be ugly for awhile. We're going to be paying more for energy and groceries. Things should start to get back on track next summer assuming no more major events occur. Notably we will most likely have the purse strings out of democrat control as well.

Fed printed too much money.  The supply of goods cannot match the additional supply of money.  Everything goes up in price since there is more money than hard goods.  Wages cannot keep up with the new prices since they inflated too quickly.  People stop spending frivolously.  Companies profits go down and they lay people off as they also can no longer spend frivolously.  Economic production slows down until everyone can catch up.  That will not happen because we're too far gone.  Fed has to print again to help everyone catch up which buys another 5-10 years.  The cycle continues.... in a nutshell.

The number one way to beat recessions is to have a recession proof job.

Good rundown. The fact that the markets were hitting all time highs in a global ghost town and locked down workers were making twice the income they made serving coffee or turning wrenches should have been clues we have circus clowns running the show who cared less about the inevitable bubble everything and economic hangover that would follow such asinine policies.

I HOPE this can all be attributed to incompetency because my paranoid conspiracy side wants to think the past few years have been deliberate manufactured chaos put forth by the puppet masters to bring middle class first worlders down a few more notches until they take to the streets to fight their equally confused brothers or scream "gov. help me" in desperation, either of which brings them closer to their goal.

Each individual American creates their own economic climate
by how they live and how they handle their money.
I make good money working in my own business and have no debt,
so life is good regardless of anything the government is doing.

If you aren't enjoying your own God given liberty
it's your own God damned fault
for failing to live a decent life deserving of it.

Haven't you figured this out yet?

GOD grants liberty... NOT the government.

Fuck the government. Get right with God.
All you need to do is what's morally right
and you will enjoy a happy productive prosperous meaningful life.

Cross posted from the mortgage rates thread because it’s important.  Thanks Malaente.

Excellent video. Thanks!

Everyone of this guy's videos has a picture of fire and a chart going down with a doomer header.  Not much of a stoic.  Nobody gets mad at someone who predicts doom and ends up being wrong which leads to an abundance of these videos.  All that Jamie Dimon said is that they are going to be more conservative in the near future.  One thing of note from that video is what he had to say about coal prices.  He's dead on with that one.  Coal is going NUTS as LNG and oil rise.

Money printing by the Federal Reserve is I N T E N T I O N A L.

It is designed to destroy the American economy in order to bring about The Great Reset.

Good advice. I have an independent recession proof business that can't be locked down, shut down, outsourced, or obsoleted.

Brace yourselves, it's going to get worse:

There’s a push in Congress for a new national retirement plan to fill big savings gap

Just another reason for more manditory witholding from paychecks. Glad I'm self employed and exempt from that bullshit.

Haha, you really think the workers are gonna pay for it all? This stinks of Entitlement. Your tax dollars at work.

It's going to be another FICA tax that is means tested when it comes time to collect.

These people are relentless.

Start with supply and demand.

When there’s more supply than demand, prices are low. When there’s more demand than supply, prices are high.

Let’s start with money. To stimulate things, interest rates were slashed to near zero. They’ve been that way waaay too long. If a little of something is good, a lot is great right?  No. Among other things, this has really spurred the housing market. Which has made “values” jump. People have gone overboard with it all.

The govt has been giving out money like candy. Stimulus here, no taxes there. No taxes paid? Get stimulus anyway!  Extend unemployment and give more money away!  Well everyone has money. So money isn’t scarce. Everyone has it, so it inherently loses value.

The $15/hr minimum gained traction. It sounds great, even menial jobs can support a family!  Except the businesses have to pay those higher wages and raise their prices. That trickles through every sector and everything costs more. So sure you’re making more/hour but the cost of living just went up right along with it. No ground was gained for those wage earners. But those making salary didn’t get raises. Yet their cost of living went up too. So their money is worth less.

Now let’s add in panic buying from a “pandemic” plus a summer of civil unrest (mostly peaceful). Increased demand=increased prices.

Oh, we also had worldwide shutdowns, not surprisingly making supply issues. Not only are goods not being produced, but those that are aren’t transported well. Then there’s some fires at lumber mills, and democrat policies to strangle fossil fuels, and more bottlenecks are created. Less supply=increased prices.

Just for fun, let’s add a war that we respond to a major food and resource producer with embargoes. Further straining supply.

So now you have some issues. And to combat inflation, they’ve raised interest rates. However, that also discourages investment.

Essentially, they’re doing very little right. And they don’t even know enough to understand. They think they’re not doing enough, and are likely to double down and make things even worse. Just like the Great Depression.

I’m not a doom and gloom guy, but we’re waaay overdue for a correction, and I fear they’re going to add salt to the wound.

making your children slaves or just replacing them with a more compliant class, that's their ultimate goal

any more questions

now what are you going to do about it, vote harder

This feels an awful lot like we’re headed into the Depression my Grandparents talked about. Or the WW2 rationing. Or the Jimmy Carter years.  Or 2008.
But who really knows?

Morons are running things

My opinion.

Supply is low

Demand is normal to high

Raised interest rates are suppose to slow the economy down but there is a big problem.

We have low supply of houses, cars, and building materials. cars have never been backordered 16 weeks to over a year. And I can still get 2% rates on cars.

So we are raising rates, only to still need the basics. People still need all those things. So the economy will continue as is but the people will start financing more things at a higher rate instead of not buying. It will take longer for this recession to show up vs the shock recession of 2008 where most people didnt know wtf was goin on.

Most people got raises in the last year. some got big ones. Those have been eaten up by inflation so I still see that as status quo. It wont be like 2008 anytime soon because of all that. At least not as fast where you wake up and companies are at zero. Which sucks for me because I am a buyer for a lot of things right now and just waiting on a crash. With supply so small for many things its going to take a while for those rates to translate into lower cost of goods across the board. Many things will be regional. Ag machinery is picking back up after years of a downtrend and commodities are high. Which translates into a decent midwest boom.

The other thing is this infrastructure bill will keep prices high for along time because companies have the cash to buy machinery and do projects. So even if consumers unrelated to this industry are getting fucked, many will still be fine.

To sum it up. Its a messy shitty situation and i wouldnt bet the house on it going either way in a sharp manner anytime soon

I don't pay taxes. My clients pay my taxes.
This is because all of my business expenses, including taxes,
are already built into the cost of the materials and services I provide.
This is a basic business principle I learned from experience.

The liberal Democrats who are purposefully destroying the American economy are actually not morons at all.
They are highly intelligent and highly educated politicians who know EXACTLY what they are doing.

This is what makes their acts so sinister.
They see EXACTLY what's coming,
and they WANT it to happen.

And when the economy causes your prices to fall which do the customers stop paying first? Your profit or your taxes?

This exactly, business’s and corporations DO NOT pay taxes, they simply pass those costs on to the consumer of their goods or services.
People don’t get that.

What type of business do you own?

Might want to add, by design, as this is exactly what they want.

My business is a neccessity and not a luxury, so I'm the last person customers stop paying. And while my prices rise with inflation and taxes, I always keep them below the market, so I always have work regardless of economic conditions.

I also have no debt. No mortgage, no business or personal loans, no vehicle loans or leases, and a zero credit card balance. This unusual method of 100% solvency works like a charm.

I've been working in my own business for 42 years through ALL kinds of economic conditions, so I know what I'm doing.

And when idiot liberals demand the government "tax big corporations" or "tax the rich"

THEY ARE TAXING THEMSELVES

because THEY pay ALL of the businesses taxes
built into EVERY product and service they buy.

Honestly, people are so fucking stupid.

They don't deserve to live in America,
and the way things are going
they won't be living in America.

This isn’t exactly accurate. Strictly speaking your product sells for market value and it’s your job to ensure that your costs to produce it are under market value. The difference is your profit. If you somehow have the ability to price your goods over market value that’s an interesting case. Of course, some items are more likely to increase in price as taxes are increased, mostly because they are commodities that are necessary, but those are volume businesses typically.

I'm an electrician.

I have no education beyond high school and got a job as an apprentice and learned the trade by doing it. Tradespeople who can make things work are highly sought after in this society. My clients happily throw money at me because I can fix their problems, implement their designs, and help make their lives better.

Actually ALL of the building trades work great as small businesses. I highly recommend working to learn a trade while you are making money, as an outside-the-box alternative to the liberal lunacy of becoming a college student loan debt slave.

I own land and a home, have zero debt, and never need to worry about money for the rest of my life.

If you want freedom... lay claim to it in your own life by working to earn it.

I honestly think it’s awesome that you love your chosen career so much, but if you’ve been doing it 42 years, you’re basically retired, right?      Do you have a bunch of crews working for you?

I’ve never seen a guy with no debt who had crews working for him.

Yes.

That's the secret.
Provide products and services people need... and not merely want.
Your financial boat will always float... regardless of the depth of the waters.

Not retired. I still work even though I don't need to because I totally love what I'm doing. I'm a Christian so my work is my calling. While I'm the pilot of my own little ship, I take directions from my Navigator who shows me the way to steer through life.



At 73 years old, I'm obviously not doing the same kinds of jobs I did when I was younger, but a lot of electrical work isn't physically taxing, so I do what's within my capabilities. Troubleshooting, repairs, upgrading electrical equipment, room additions, kitchen and bath remodels, Tesla chargers, ceiling fans, light fixtures, stuff like that I can still easily do.

And NO employees. (I enjoy my sanity.) Although I have a State Contractor's License, I have never hired any employees or contracted jobs to others. I also have never worked as a sub contracter for general conractors. I only work for principles and never through third parties.

People love dealing directly with the tradesman who is actually personally responsible for doing all the work themselves.

You have no idea of the freedom and personal autonomy of being a fully credentialed one man business.

I respect that. I use a plumber like that, he’s great. Old Nam vet, he and my brother get to telling artillery stories. It’s a good business and a good living and it doesn’t scale.

BULLSEYE.

Neither have I.

In America, you will find the MOST freedom at the level of the sovereign. independent, autonomous, productive, self motivated. self governing individual.

Yeah... I'm also an Old Nam Vet.  

Yeah, I wish I could hire you.   Kinda far away though.

I wanted to get married, so I dropped my 2-S thinking I would get a greeting from the US government, serve and then get married. But along came the lottery and my number was like 265 so I finished college and married the girl. Still married to her.

Thanks for serving, great respect for all who served, but particularly those who served in Vietnam!

You aren't looking in the right places. I had 8 crews in the field and fifty folks in the factory and no debt for many many years. THAT is why I could retire at fifty. That being said being self employed in todays world must be a NIGHTMARE.

I’ve seen inside the books of 8 companies in my industry in the last year and all had debt, even if they could pay it off. Those are companies with 80-500 employees. One did $75m last year. Had $2m in debt.

Thanks for your kind words.
I worked all over Los Angeles for decades, but now all of my work is local within our rural canyon. I'm really happy to never have to sit in traffic any more. surprizingly there's actually lots of work here. I've never advertized, everything is word of mouth recommendations from folks I serve. The "sole proprietor" business template I follow will work for just about any trade.

Over the years I watche lots of contractors go big and go bust. I don't have the kind of temprament to deal with employees, so I took the road less travelled and it made all the difference. (hey, that sounds familiar   )

Business is unbelievably EFFICIENT on a scale of ONE.
It's just me, my tools, my motorcycle, my truck,
a landline telephone answer machine,
and the goodwill of the folks I serve.

For me, it's absolute Paradise.
I enjoy freedoms most people could only dream about.

The real challenge in life is actually a moral one:

How do you live a good life in an evil world just as it is right now?

God makes that possible.

For most large businesses debt is a GOOD thing. If your books show a profit you have to pay taxes on it. Plus the plan is to make more on your product or service than what you are paying in interest on your loans and dumping that profit back into the company physically or by buying back company shares to increase self ownership.

Loans have been CHEAP for a long time so not using that leverage to grow your company is foolish . That is why raising interest rates puts a hurting on startups, buyouts, expansions ,etc. and the stock market reacts accordingly. Hours are cut, some jobs are lost, and houses and cars sit unsold as consumers start tightening the purse strings on loan items.

In theory inflation drops along with demand but with trillions in freshly printed cash floating around still looking for a place to settle we are more likely to see long term stagflation which is the worse of both worlds.

This is an interesting perspective, but how do you reconcile it with the globalists who seem to believe that they are above the underlying economic realities?

I guess the prudent course of action would be to ramp up investment international equities relative to US, acquire valuable resources (e.g. quality farming/ranching land, tools, etc.), and prepare for the decline of the US. I'd be interested in seeing historical data on how to secure wealth as a resident of a failing empire.

What we are seeing is the failure of the US. It as much a social phenomenon as it is an economic one. Look at how ignorance, uselessness, and incompetence have been embraced relative to intelligence, strength, and effectiveness.  

Nutshell is a global disparity between supply and demand.  

Government Covid restrictions reduced supply and now the Ukraine war has made some things worse like food and fuel.

Government response to supply restrictions was massive stimulus to increase demand.  

Basically, government failed economics 101.  

Mostly engineered by Democrats but the Republicans were on board for this too.