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Posted: 1/23/2020 10:20:42 PM EDT
The name "The Lazy B" didn't come out of thin air. . .
Reuters - Boeing's new CEO orders rethink on key jetliner project
22-Jan-2020
LONDON/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Boeing Co's (BA.N) new chief executive has sent the aerospace giant back to the drawing board on proposals for a new mid-market aircraft, effectively shelving in their current form plans worth $15 billion-$20 billion that had been overtaken by the 737 MAX crisis.

A decision on whether to launch a New Midsize Airplane (NMA) seating 220-270 passengers, which seemed imminent barely a year ago, had already been postponed as Boeing gave all its attention to the grounding of the smaller 737 MAX after two fatal crashes.

But days after taking the helm with a mandate to lift Boeing out of its 10-month-old reputational crisis, Chief Executive Dave Calhoun said the competitive playing field had changed.

"Since the first clean sheet of paper was taken to it, things have changed a bit ... the competitive playing field is a little different," he told journalists on a conference call on Wednesday. XXX "We're going to start with a clean sheet of paper again; I'm looking forward to that," Calhoun said.

He also spoke of a fresh approach to the market. XXX A Boeing spokesman said Calhoun had ordered up a new study on what kind of aircraft was needed. New aircraft typically take 6-7 years or more to bring to market once a decision is made, though Boeing aims to shorten that in part through digital technology and new business models designed around the NMA.

Calhoun "has asked the team to do an assessment of the future market and what kind of airplane is needed to meet the future market," spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

Noting that the original assessments on the NMA were made about two and a half years ago, he said the new study would "build upon what has been learned ... in design and production."

In further evidence of a change of pace, people familiar with the matter said a meeting between Boeing and a major potential supplier, originally scheduled for next week, had been abruptly canceled with no new date set.

That contrasts with the approach just weeks ago when Boeing was still presenting new details of the NMA to some airlines, including a working logo - "the NMA" - and details of an "advanced composite" structure, according to a slide seen by Reuters.

The NMA had been designed to address a slender gap between single-aisle workhorse jets like the 737 MAX and long-haul wide-body jets like the 787.

But most of the effort revolved around a new production system designed not only to support the NMA but to lay the groundwork for the next single-aisle aircraft after the 737 MAX.

Calhoun said he expected the MAX, whose return to service was delayed again earlier this week, to resume its previous place in the market and remain in service for a generation.

Traditionally toe-to toe-with Europe's Airbus SE (AIR.PA), Boeing has fallen behind in sales for the largest category of single-aisle planes, such as the 200-240-seat Airbus A321neo, which overlaps with the niche being targeted by the NMA.

By delaying a decision on the NMA, Boeing already risked losing the sweetest part of the market, especially after Airbus seized contracts with two major U.S. airlines, analysts said.

Analysts have also questioned whether Boeing, facing costs equivalent to a new program to repair the MAX crisis, as well as delays on its large new 777X jet whose maiden flight is set for Friday, would have appetite for such a costly project now.
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At least a few here on this forum criticized Boeing's dawdling over the past 15 years with respect to launching the New Midsize Aircraft ("NMA") / Middle of the Market ("MoM") aircraft, as well as the company's decision to squeeze the last bit of value out of the 737 in the form of the 737 MAX (well before the type's MCAS/crashing problems), rather than going with a clean-sheet narrowbody replacement. Now those chickens have come home to roost.

Boeing's new CEO just announced yesterday that the company is (again) going to go back to the drawing board for a "clean sheet" NMA, while the company concentrates on getting the 737 MAX's issues resolved. At best, this means don't expect any new airframe types from Boeing anytime before 2027. In the meantime, Airbus will happily sell the A321XLR to airlines looking to replace their 757s. They already have 450 A321XLR orders on the books since launching the type this past June (for perspective, consider the 757's total production was 1,050), and will have the entire market segment to themselves for at least the next decade. Meanwhile, Boeing spins its wheels trying to get the MAX fixed.

Also, keep in mind that thanks in large part to Boeing's efforts to kill Bombardier's C-Series in the crib, Airbus was essentially gifted a wholly new airframe ("A220") that can - once fully developed - supplant the market currently served by their A318/A319/A320.

Just like the 787's issues crippled Boeing to the point that they didn't have the financial or engineering capital, nor the fortitude, to launch a clean sheet design to counter the A320 NEO family - which resulted in the MAX - they now find themselves similarly hobbled with respect to the NMA because of the MAX's (and to a lesser extent, the 777X's) issues.

My only hope for Boeing at this point is whatever this latest stab at the NMA/MoM/"797" results in, it better provide at least the foundation (in the form of its fuselage cross-section) for a replacement for the 737 as well.
Link Posted: 1/23/2020 10:30:06 PM EDT
[#1]
I wonder who is going to build this NMA aircraft...the recently laid off employees at Spirit Aerosystems? Nothing like Boeing sending money to airline employees, but not a nickel to the actual manufacturer of the aircraft.

To give you an idea of how fuel efficient the 320NEOs can be, at one airline, the captains were questioning dispatch releases because the fuel loads were far lower of what is traditional for a 320CEO.

Like 15-20% less. Crazy.
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 1:55:28 AM EDT
[#2]
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 3:42:10 AM EDT
[#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Boeing has to get 737Max and the tanker under control and stop bleeding money first.

The market will still be there for the next new airplane.

I believe Calhoun underestimates the internal problems.  Maybe the external, especially handling the regulators.
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Looks like a long, rough decade ahead for Boeing.

Airbus has the A220/C-Series, which already overlaps the A318/A319 market, and that can be developed even further to replace the A320.

I suspect Boeing's next new airframe will not be an NMA, but a clean sheet 737 replacement that can serve as the foundation for a subsequent NMA (a'la, the 707/727/737/757). I wouldn't be shocked if this is announced within the next 3-4 years, with a targeted in-service date by the end of the decade.

However, Airbus is still sitting pretty to counter relatively inexpensively with an evolved A220/C-Series, and (barring an unforeseen 737MAX-scale program disaster) the ability to dedicate the weight of its engineering and financial capital to launch a clean sheet design to counter any such 737-replacement and derived-NMA in the ~150-230 seat portion of the market.

In other words, I don't foresee Boeing enjoying the windfall from any new design (or derivatives) that might come about in the next decade that would compare to what Airbus is now experiencing (and will experience over the next 10 years) due to the 737 MAX's problems and Boeing's failure to replace the 757.

I'd imagine one would be fortunate these days (and a for a few more to come) to own property in Mobile, Alabama...
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 6:22:09 AM EDT
[#4]
Sounds like typical buearucratic leadership - backtrack and don't commit to anything to eliminate all possibility of anything bad happening.  Do your time, collect your bonuses and options, and move on to the next place.  Not unique to Boeing, just publicized a lot because of the max "problems".
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 11:09:50 AM EDT
[#5]
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 11:19:49 AM EDT
[#6]
Is the market for the 757 replacement big enough for both the 321XLR and a new Boeing design?  If I'm a Boeing finance guy I look at a huge capital commitment for NMA and a not very large market.
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 11:31:03 AM EDT
[#7]
Boeing announced (yesterday I think) that they were withdrawing from the DARPA spaceplane project immediately.
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 12:32:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Is the market for the 757 replacement big enough for both the 321XLR and a new Boeing design?  If I'm a Boeing finance guy I look at a huge capital commitment for NMA and a not very large market.
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A few years ago, Boeing forecast the NMA's market space to be anywhere between 300-1000 aircraft. Given Airbus's orderbook success thus far with the A321LR & A321XLR, it would seem that forecast will rank in infamy with the one that led to Airbus's gamble on a new super jumbo to serve ever larger hub & spoke operations...

Unfortunately for Boeing, there isn't an EU for them to paper over their fiscal mistakes, enabling them to quickly correct to a new airframe, as Airbus was able to do with the launch of the A350 to compete with the 787 in light of it's commercial failure with the A380.

As stated, Boeing is in one heck of a financial and engineering bind right now, and it's going to reverberate for at least a decade.
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 12:39:09 PM EDT
[#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Boeing announced (yesterday I think) that they were withdrawing from the DARPA spaceplane project immediately.
View Quote
It might be time to talk about a federal rescue and divestiture of Boeing’s non commercial business.
Link Posted: 1/24/2020 1:03:08 PM EDT
[#10]
737Max fiasco.

More 787 issues rearing it's ugly head.

Boeing Starliner issues.

NMA pushed off.

Dropping out of DARPA race.

The Air Force has serious issues with the KC-47.

IF the Max gets in the air by June, they're talking a loss of 20-30 BILLION.

Meanwhile, the CEO gets let out the side door with $62 million and slap on the back.  He'll probably resurface in a few years making millions running another company.

What a cluster fuck!
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