This bear market started on March 11. Bear markets can last month or years. Bear markets mean lower earning per share, some companies with cash flow problems will suspending dividends, or stop paying the dividend completely.
In 2008 alot of so call professionally money managers would come on tv and say "I am buying this stock for the dividend" " I am getting paid to own this stock  until the economy turns around".  This is all well and good until its not.
Alot of stocks that had great dividends in 2008 were lowered and then suspended and then stopped. If the company really sucked it was pulled off of a index or removed from exchange all together. Some times a company will suspended  the dividends when they are having cash flow problems and the economy is bad. But then they do not reinstate the dividend when the economy comes back.

In bear market all stocks trend down. The best stocks fall the least so it is very easy to make of list of future winners.  In 2008 apple was the stock I watched the most and it did fall. I expect it to do the same.  They have been effected greatly and I think there eps will be bad. I do not think that the current stock price reflects what will be very bad quarter for apple.  Apple has been very transparent in this being one of the first companies to warn about lower eps. They have plenty of money and better suited than any other company for a down turn or bear market. With all the cash they have the dividend is safe. This is just an example how you can follow one stock if its a leader to get a trend on the market detection. I do not own apple. This is also not a go buy apple stock tread.

The majority of March 13 price move in the exchanges happened in the last 20 minutes of trading. In my opinion this was caused by a very oversold condition. With the President talking during at this time the news cycle changed from negative to positive words that caused advanced algorithmic systems and professionals to buy the market.

For Monday the Fed announced rate cuts and they are restarting QE. The Fed and world markets are throwing more money than ever into the economy. I don't know if this point how the market will take this short term or long term.
I would diffidently use market rally sell your stock that are losers. Raise cash for new purchases when the market does turn.

I do not know if we have hit the low in the markets yet. History tell me hell no we have not . I am a bull market guy but trying to save new investors and old investors from jumping into a bear market to early. In my opinion there will be lower lows.

I’ve been chasing it down. At this point I’m back to DCA. I will likely go all in at 10k and yes I do think we will get there.

10k?  Dayum.  I will feel like a fool for dropping 20k in the market then.  But, I'm a self admitted dumbass.

S&P below 2000 was unrealistic a month ago. Now they are saying that 1500 or lower!

Dollar cost average all the way to the bottom and then when it picks back up, and yes it will pick back up and I think big time, hand over fist in money.

I highly doubt we get to 10k.

I think the Fed is likely to step in before that point and directly purchase market assets, essentially implenting a broad market price floor.

I think it will have to go to ~15,000 before they start considering those drastic measures.

Here is a good chart on down turns. These percentages can be different depending on were you get the data.

https://oshares.com/market-corrections-time-to-buy/

3/22/20

Nothing changed in the market AAPL started to breakdown more on Friday I expect it to keep falling. I have really been watching AAPL and BA the most. If any one is still holding BA I would sell it into any rally. BA also suspended there dividend. I expect more companies to do this. I see no reason for anyone to hold BA. In 2008 when the Government was voting on Tarp and could not pass it. It caused a very big drop in the market. When tarp passed it was five months later before the market hit its all time low. If the Government passes a relief package and it passes do not jump into the market to quickly. We are sill in a bear market. It could last months or years.
The good news is the vix has been falling.

I agree 100%. Stock holders for BA could easily end up with 0, and I've never liked AAPL. How many people are going to be buying $1k phones after the economy shrinks 25%.

it rare for a recession to drop lower than 50% of the previous peak. I would say there is no way we go lower than 15,000. Anything under 20k is an amazing buy, under 25k is still good and is probably where the market really should have been at.

Ive been buying VTSAX and CCL, NCLH, RCL, and DAL.

Taking a hard look at SBUX and other luxury dining.

Passed on Boeing but am thinking i might dip my toe in for a few shares.

FWIW I'm not betting the farm, I'm also aware that my wife or I could get laid off due to upcoming recession and that the stocks may not have hit rock bottom yet, this could just be a bounce, and we are likely in for more tough times ahead but its hard to go wrong at thee prices if you are a long term investor.

My boss bought about 1000 shares of the following:
Ford
Boeing
GE
Delta Airlines
Bought GE on a Lark.  
Last Thursday.  
He’s pretty happy.
Each.  To clarify.

We haven't seen the bottom yet.

Yeah I got nervous earlier today but I think we will see it drop again. And that’s probably when I drop the hammer. But honesty now wouldn’t be that bad.

See how it goes I guess.

Nobody knows what's going to happen in the short term. A few billionaire investors/hedge fund managers have already gone in heavy on their preferred stock. Market has already started its climb back up. It may dip again. It may not.  I personally think Corona was over-blown. With the stimulus package pending and Trump talking about getting things up and running again. The market may already be on its way back up without any more dips.



Either way I'm still dollar cost averaging my way through this.

I agree with you on that. I’ll probably throw some more cash at it before the weeks out. I’m probably long gaming this so a couple thousand points either way isn’t a biggie to me.

I’m up pretty good, except my 401k, but I upped the percentage for that so I’ll probably make out like a bandit with this after a couple years.

My poor boss was planning to retire in Sept. he put it off from January. He will be ok. But he hasn’t been super happy.

Can’t run around bragging about my net gain over the last month at the office.

3/26/20

Its hard to stay out of the market when you see these big percentage rallies. But historically some of the biggest percentage rallies have taken place during bear markets. Not all of them work. I would still be using market rallies to sell losers and raise cash. If you have taken new position in a stock and have big gains raise your stop loss order with the stock price and lock in those gains if the market turns on you. Don't turn a winner into a loser.

I really think the market more expensive than ever and had been keeping my eye on the index p/e ratios. https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
The VIX has risen in the last three days and Ford bond rating cut to junk status.

You guys missed out on BA at under $100, its at $163 and some change pre market this morning.

My opinion COVID-19 was over hyped, sure its deadly for some percentage of the population, as are a number of other viruses & infections.  US economy was strong and will come back quickly.  There are probably still some dips with the remaining uncertainty and numbers being released (both unemployment #s & company revenue announcements) yes they both will be bad news, but people have money burning a hole in their pockets and the memories (15+% returns) of the past 5 years are still fresh, besides what else can they get returns like this on, gold ?  oil ?  bonds ?  - i think until people really get burned those low return investments are a thing of the past.

Yeah - I'm pissed that I did not have the courage to set it at $100. I thought it would go lower.

Again I agree 100%. Now is the time to sell companies that will struggle over the next few months. I've been putting my money in Silver and Gold ETFs.

I would never put my money in paper gold or silver.

If you don't have that metal in your hot little hands, there's nothing behind it (or there's one bar sitting in a vault somewhere with 50,000 pieces of paper claiming rights to the same bar).

Bought a bunch of it at $96 and change. Finally something I bought didn't turn to complete dogshit the moment my trade executed.

I know of several companies that have lied about their profits and defrauded their shareholders but I’ve never heard of a gold or silver trust that doesn’t have precious metal in their vault. Seems like buying stocks is a bigger risk based on history.

Also, the trust is structured so trustees cannot lend any of the gold.

PM ETF's can be a huge money maker, nothing wrong with them if you want to make money, easy to buy and sell.

3/29/20

So the first bear market rally is still in play. Some technical indicators started to show that the rally might be starting to fade. I think this is one of those times when you can make more on the sidelines than in the market. It is way to early to start buying stocks.   We are in the first stages of a bear market. Great stocks will still trend down in a bear market. If you add to a position or create a new one without a limit on losses you will just be carrying more risk and more losses in to a bear market that could last a long time.  I do not see how a recession is not around the corner.

This link shows the bigger the decline the longer the recovery https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/putting-pullbacks-in-perspective

4/5/20

Not to much has changed between last week. The rally is sill under pressure to the down side. If the rally breaks down we could easy test the lows again. The majority of stocks are still bearish. It will be interesting to see if the companies that receive loan money  from government will be force to issue the government stock shares in return. If this happens it will dilute the common share holder even more.

Here is a list of USA companies with the most cash surplus minus financials real estate utilities https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1245664756280721413/photo/1

USA companies with a cash deficit https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1245664982307688454/photo/1


I always think companies that do employees buyouts are probability losing the most smartest and experienced employees. What kind of leadership will remain?

https://fortune.com/2020/04/02/boeing-voluntary-buyouts-employees/

Our unemployment rate is going to dwarf the rates during the Great Depression.    I don’t know how anyone thinks 25,000 is a good buy

15,000 is very realistic.  Wait until the 8 week freeze on firings is over on the payroll protection “loans”.

So glad I bought Wayfair at $30.  Thanks to the wife's input!!!!

ETA: Thanks Hut_Boom this has been a great thread.

I know the Sprott physical ETFs have it so that they literally can't have deposit receipts. Can't speak for the GLD or SLV.

I get the cynicism of the paper gold market but that is by in large is apparently happening on the comex and less so on the ETF side. Apparently in the March crash there was 60 some billion in leveraged long gold that got washed out of the market. My theory on this is that Wall Street was actually more bullish on gold than they let on but were not anticipating a black swan/crash to that would wash them out of their position by depriving them of credit. Them being pompous dumb Wall Streeters meant that they had their position in the most reckless/vulnerable form possible even though the base thesis was actually solid.

Surprised that the stocks are going up this early, I figured that it would drop down little bit more.

Seems that unemployment report did not affect it.

$1200 government checks? Lol

Hartford CT just bought 4000+ MacBooks for kids to do schoolwork at home (I guess). AAPL is solid as it gets IMO.

I dumped $10K into individual stocks when the Dow was around 20K a couple weeks ago. I have another $5K I want to put in as well. Should I sit on the $5K for now and wait and see if the market takes another dip in the near future?

I locked in some gains yesterday at close, dumped half my shares of my two biggest gainers, in the hope of buying them back cheaper on Monday. This week's frantic gains deserve at least a slight pullback.

I hope.

He's underestimating millennials. People are going to buy MacBooks, IPads and the newest iPhones. Even if it means they miss meals or can't pay their rent.

Don't forgets theys gots to buy their weed.

Money printer go BRRRRRRRR

This.  I have been absolutely shocked at the gains this week.

We're about to hit probably the worst two-three weeks of this horseshit.   And the market has gone up?  None of it makes any sense any more.

It makes perfect sense once you accept the economy and the market are almost completely decoupled

I think these gains won't be long lived. People are optimistic about the virus ending but they aren't considering the economic damage that's been done. That will start to show up in earnings reports before long. The market was already due for a selloff before the virus. I made a small buy of VTI and VBK when the dow was under 20k and added oil stocks as they fell but I'm still 90% in cash. Once it stabilizes I'll start averaging in or I'll buy on big drops, but I'm not going to chase it up.

Why did your wife suggest Wayfair? It was obviously a good buy. I looked it over and it wasn't a stock I would have considered. Just wondering why she liked it.

We have had a bunch of discussions as a family on what people want to do during corona virus and what they want to do post.  The wife has been into doing home projects while quarantined and Wayfair is one site she often looks at and people buy from.  

Have discussions with friends and family about what their habits are, what they want to do during and after this.  It is amazing what you can learn in your own 4 walls.

That's exactly why I bought RGS (Regis hair salons, and about a dozen other hair salon chains). Haircuts are going to be an immediate need for millions of people (especially females) on the very first possible day. I'm also in restaurants (BLMN, CBRL), and I'm up about 40% on all these over the last two and a half weeks.

But I'll dump all of them the moment I think they've gotten their initial bounce, and move on to the next thing. I expect to be out of them in 2-3 weeks.

My rule for the past 3 years has been "buy an ass ton of INTC when it hits mid-40s, buy two ass-tons if it hits low 40s, sell when it hits upper 50s."

Outperformed the S&P 500 three years running doing nothing but reacting to Intel price alerts every few months. Made something like, what, 8 round trips now? I lost count.

How friggin ridiculous.

Person A buys Triple-A rated Bonds and Person B buys junk bonds.

Now, because of 'extraordinary circumstances", Person B is going to be bailed out by the government buying junk bonds.

Person A took less risk and received less interest over the years, but Person B accepted more risk and received higher interest up until now and suddenly because there's a panic, the government is going to bail out Person B. What about all the people that passed on that higher yield?

The prudent bail out the reckless and the tax payer gets to bail out the everyone. Basically socialize all losses by devaluing the US dollar.   2008 all over.

GIANT WTF

Yep.

In 2008 they increased stock prices by bailing out failed companies (rather than letting new companies with better management take over their assets).

Now they're going to increase consumer prices by sending money directly to consumers. It would have been easier for everyone just to write an extra zero on all their bills.

“Whenever a problem is proclaimed in the media there will almost invariably be a solution proposed in politics. Often the solution is worse than the problem.”
- Thomas Sowell

4/13/20

So last Thursday the unemployment number was overshadowed by the fed announcing that they would add junk bonds to their buying program. Check out the gap up these bond ETF funds JNK LQD HYG. They have been very creative in timing of their announcement.  I would think stocks should follow short term. This rally has had some good monument every small pull back has not lasted long. The market is overbought at this time but that does not mean it can not stay overbought. I would be cautious holding individual stocks into earning. Most are not giving future earnings guidance and are pulling money from their credit line. This is not a recipe for recovery. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts earning reports this week.

So do I think now is a good time to get in ? The answer is I don't know we are on the fifty yard line of where the market goes from here. I do think the risk is a lot less the vix is lower and you have some room to exit a position if the market changes before it undercuts the 3/23 low if the market was to change to the downside.

The S&P is trading around the level it was at last August with a lot better fundamentals then exist today. I did not feel like there was something I missing out on last August so I can't imagine that I am missing out on something now.
That being said you can have the correct idea and the wrong timing and go broke. So last week a bought MSFT and QQQ I will exit if market direction changes. I still do not think this is a very safe market and I am mostly in cash.

If you are a long term investor I would not invest until the ema 50 day crosses above the ema 200 day on the SPY


I put up this post in general population should of posted it here. it is a quick way to tell if your stock is outperforming the market in this environment. https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/New-stock-market-leaders-or-laggards/5-2316481/?page=1

4/19/20

The DIA SPY both closed above the 50 day moving average for the first time since 2/21/20. Both DIA SPY 200 day moving average is still above the 50 day moving average. Typically in bear markets stocks and indexes will not trade above the 50 day so the close above is bullish. The 200 day moving average above the 50 day moving average is still bearish. AAPL has been trading in a range the last four day and was under pressure Friday from a GS downgrade. If it falls more it could be a tell for the end of the rally. The 50 day on aapl 273.22 a close below that would be bad for the market.

Looks like the rally is over

Ouch!  

I'm hearing talk that U.S. Oil (currently sitting at about $2.80) could fall to zero if the CME calls their margin.  Because with U.S. Oil "owning" 25% of future oil deliveries, there's no way they can meet a margin call.  That fund is very over-leveraged.  They made the classic mistake of thinking "Oil can never do XYZ in the future because XYZ has never happened in the past."

Just because something has never happened in the past, doesn't mean it can't happen in the future.  Just ask buyers and sellers of West Texas Intermediate crude!

We live in strange times.

P.S.  I'm currently sitting out this market with a 90% cash position.  I don't trust this market as far as I can throw it.  The market has been nearly completely decoupled from the real economy for the last three years.  Even more so the last few months.  Just as bad, portions of the market have been effectively nationalized by the Fed.  I honestly didn't think I'd see that in my lifetime, but here we are.

While some people are still screaming "We'll never allow socialism in America!", in the last 60 days we've seen more actual socialism introduced into America than at any other time since the 1930's.  And interestingly enough I'm not hearing too many people complain about it.  Funny, that.

As for the broad market, I don't see how it can still be trading at close to 130% of GDP with 25M people newly unemployed.  Oh, wait.  I already explained it to myself: the market has been nearly completely decoupled from the real economy.

I don't have a crystal ball anymore than anyone else.  And I'm far from an investment guru.  But I have "a bad feeling" about the current market.  Is that feeling justified?  Logic would say it is.  Then again, logic also tells me that this government absolutely will not let markets operate like markets.  It seems as if they're willing to pull out all the stops, and spend trillions of dollars they don't have, all to prevent the market from correcting itself as it should.

I guess my gut is simply telling me, "This can't end well."  Even so I have to remember that old saying, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."  Ergo, I'm in cash right now.  I'll see where we're at in a few months.  But if I had to guess, I'd say the S&P still needs to shave several hundred points.  At least until I feel comfortable jumping back in.

I didn't buy USO because I thought that might be the case. I thought about buying OIL instead. It's an ETN sold by a bank as debt but I had the same concern. What if it goes under completely. They say it's unsecured debt in the prospectus.

USO will be doing a one for eight reverse share split after close on the 28th. http://www.uscfinvestments.com/documents/united-states-oil-fund-pr-20200422.pdf