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Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:13:12 AM EDT
[#1]
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:15:03 AM EDT
[#2]
I'll be using this with my high school students tomorrow.  Thank you.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:15:36 AM EDT
[#3]

I edited it slightly(language) so that it could be sent out via email or posted anywhere



I currently manage a medium sized hedge fund (long/short equity).

The current populist uproar is absolute insanity. I don't know how else to say it. You are never going to legislate away greed. Period. It is part of the human psyche. That's all there is to it. You can either fight it, or use it. Incentives work. This is why.

Let's step back a minute and think about why and how this happened:

1. Starting back in the 1970s Congress addressed discrimination in mortgage lending (which was really a serious problem) with the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975. This approach was to open lending statistics by requiring banks to disclose the details of their lending by geography and, eventually, demographics and income level. This was a stroke of genius. Large banks were shamed into good citizenship. The act did have the effect of elevating a number of "civil rights" personalities (Jesse Jackson, for instance) as they used shrewd public relations to expose some rather egregious practices by large banks when it came to mortgage lending. These same personalities, names you doubtless recognize, in some cases, adopted more aggressive tactics, some that borderline on blackmail and extortion today. I leave it to you to determine if this downside outweighs the upside of truth in lending practices. I, for one, think that forcing disclosure like this was enlightened. It was to be the last of its kind.

2. The Community Reinvestment Act really was a serious break with the legislative practice before the legislation. Suddenly, you have a small number of people determining where dollars will flow based on some political definition of who is worthy. The early definition could be right as rain in terms of who is deserving, needs a leg up, has been wronged, etc. etc. but once you go down this path, you are truly screwed. Once you start dictating capital flows based on political worthiness (an entirely subjective and whimsical standard) you have opened the door to all kinds of mess. Play stupid games...

3. ...win stupid prizes. In the 1980s and 1990s Congress literally had a hornet's nest up its butt with mortgage regulation. Almost 400 bills in the 101st Congress contained the word "mortgage." This doesn't seem like a big deal until you realize that the housing ranged from 7-20+% of GDP in a quarter. Absorb that. Something like 1/5 of quarterly GDP. Now put in place mechanisms to literally pour trillions of dollars into the system to encourage "The Dream of American Home Ownership." Think of it. You have a small group of regulators/legislators (less than 100 people are making major decisions about how much Freddie or Fannie will lend, or what their capital ratios will be raised to, or what interest rates should be) controlling a massive portion of the economy. You suddenly have price fixing for a sizable fraction of the GDP. To compete with Fannie and Freddie, their subsidies, their tax breaks, their implied government backstop and their downward pressure on interest rates, you have to take on more risk for less money. Hello Countrywide. (Just a bit of history, Countrywide was explicitly founded to collateralize the only loans left to non-GSEs- those not already being siphoned by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae). GSEs held 1/3 of all residential mortgages by 2001 or so. ONE THIRD. GSEs were run by political hacks, installed there as a reward for political services rendered. These are facts.

4. Banking and Insurance regulation is, and always has been, daft. The blind focus on capital ratios, reserve ratios and the like, and the pedantic concentration on definitions of risk that results in notional insured figures being counted in capital ratio calculations but credit default swaps not counted in this way was insanity. Of COURSE massive capital is going to flow into the exception you, regulator, have explicitly written into the regs. Now you are shocked and surprised that people wrote Credit Default Swaps like there was no tomorrow? Incentives matter. Period.

ETA: I am not stupid enough to ask you to explain to me why you cannot just let dying firms in dead industries FAIL? Watching an airline enter its THIRD bankruptcy, and proceed to wage a deleterious price war, only to suck down millions if not billions in federal aid may pull $50 off a ticket to Florida, but it also screws the entire industry. You've created the appearance of a right to cheap airfare, cheap gas, cheap insurance, and bailout if the McMansion you were stupid enough to built on a 20 year flood plain gets- quelle surprise- leveled by a storm. Of course you can't let anything fail. You've promised the world. You've been borrowing and delaying the inevitable to deliver it for decades.

5. The market for talent is global, and you can't legislate it away. Like it or not there is a metric ton of money in finance. The power to create, move or allocate wealth is very valuable. It always will be. You aren't striking a blow for social justice by enacting the first salary caps in the modern history of the United States. You are guaranteeing that finance experts will flee. The hiring binge going on right now as the likes of UBS suck out talent is just amazing. UBS, with the support of the Swiss Government, is offering 10 year permits to execs and their families who relocate to Switzerland, not to mention the ability to negotiate your personal tax rate for the next 10 years up front in some Cantons. You can't determine what finance execs will be paid, folks. You can only determined WHERE they will be paid. Who exactly do you think is going to pull the United States out of this mess. Big Auto?

So, let me get this straight, Mr. or Ms. Congressional/Executive Scumbag....

You've spent the last two decades pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars into particular segments of the mortgage market, a major portion of the U.S. economy, dictating what risks were appropriate, how much would be paid for assuming those risks and generally underpricing risk in the entire system for years and years. You've been inflating a bubble and assuring that the inflation passed to the riskiest portions of the economy. You've been passing the buck for four decades. Every time the economy tries to correct itself, you stall, pump borrowed money into the system, and grow the disaster the country will eventually have to face. You buy votes year after year by delivering graft now, to be paid for later (after you've long left office). In effect, nearly one third of the American economy has been run by central planning for the last five years. During this inflation, you happily collected taxes on everyone, effectively collecting tax on borrowed money and inflated assets (none of which you propose to repay- what luck would I have asking for the real-estate taxes I have paid for years on appraisals that were pure illusion?) I didn't hear you complaining when you saw massive, record revenues to the Treasury thanks to the boom the finance community facilitated and delivered to you, year in and year out. I didn't see you pointing fingers when we dug in and pulled you out of two recessions. Finance is a massive portion of the economy because it creates wealth. Period. Your social programs, state and local, are massive bloated vote-buyers because of our hard work, sweat and craft. (New York State, I'm looking at you). We work until mid-May for you and your vote purchasing juggernaut. I accept that. I have for years. This is because what I make from June to December is more than enough to, not just enjoy the American Dream and the promises of success and wealth, but to take the capital I collect over the years and invest it, again and again back into American business, start-ups, and even your screwed up GSE mortgage securities (which my taxes support). We carry the freight. 10% of us pay 70% of all income taxes. 50% of us pay 97% of all income taxes. We tolerate this because this is the promise of America. Work hard, pay taxes, and no one will second guess what you spend your money on in your personal time. No one will tell you how much is a "fair wage."

Now, now that you have run out of delaying tactics, you want to point the finger at... me?

I came to this country for a reason. I spent 9 years in U.S. universities, which I busted my butt to get into. I didn't borrow a dime to do it. I paid every cent myself. I've never so much as accepted a single unemployment check. I've never availed myself of any government largess that I wasn't forced to take. I have repeatedly declined to challenge some of your more deluded tax claims against my income in court, as was my right. Two of these I clearly could have won, though expensively. What's more, I consider myself a patriot. I consider it a great privilege to live in the United States and to be called one of her adopted children. I defend this country, and what used to be her ideals, to any European socialist moron who cares to engage me in conversation. I support the troops. Wherever they are. Unconditionally. I create jobs. Aside from two years where I broke even, I have made money for my clients and partners every year since I have been in professional life. This includes 2008 and 2009 YTD. You could house 50 families in reasonable comfort for 10 years on what I have paid in taxes since I've been here. Actually, now that I've actually done the calculation just now for this post, you are really pissing me off.

Now you want to call me greedy? Are you kidding me? After you screwed this place up? You want to tell me that capitalism failed? What capitalism? You've socialized/centralized almost half of the GDP. Now, you want to use me and the paycheck I've earned year after year to deflect attention from the basic fact that you have been shoving debt on people who couldn't hope to find within themselves the character to take responsibility for repaying it? They get a pass and I get... what... a sharp stick in the eye?

And, you want to tell me that $250,000 is "enough?"

I will tell you what is "enough." Me paying for your power grab for the last decade now. That's quite enough.

Let me just tell you, Congressional/Executive Branch Scumbag, Esq., if you do this... if you take this turn... I won't even think twice. I will move my firm to Switzerland, or to London before the year is out. Those employees who do not follow me, I will have to fire. The corporate taxes I pay will no longer be yours. Instead, they will go to something useful, like a nice tunnel through a mountain for high speed trains that actually work. Further, I will dedicate a substantial portion of my personal time, effort and capital to frustrating your every attempt to collect personal taxes on me thereafter- given your draconian anti-expatriation laws. But that's not all. My job is to make money for my clients, in whatever way I can. I will short your flagging financial firms mercilessly and remorselessly. I will buy QGRI puts to bet against any firm that took bailout money. I will buy credit default swaps on every firm you put your greasy paws on, because I know your fingerprints are laced with poison. For every boneheaded centralist move you make, I will be there, profiting from your lunacy. I will never again take a client who pays taxes in the United States. I will not permit any capital or profit to be diverted to any such. I will do this because in the same way you believe it your divine right to punish "greed," I consider it my duty to punish the stupidity and arrogance that is central planning, and because I believe in economic freedom. I will divert as many of your resources to my new home and its relative economic freedoms as I can. I will promote free markets in this way, and I will never look back. You will have made it clear that you are my enemy, and I do not forget such declarations.

I take no pleasure in this fight. I did not ask for it. I only asked for liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Deny me these at your peril. In the end, I can only hope I'm not alone

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:18:14 AM EDT
[#4]
11/10
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:24:15 AM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

Quoted:
I currently manage a medium sized hedge fund (long/short equity).

How does one become one of those?

Seriously.



You sell your soul to the devil.  




This , he's not kidding.



+1
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:25:15 AM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artifically low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


So that's what caused them to loan $525000 on a $500000 dollar houses to people with no job, no income, and no assets?  No, it's not. It was the faulty premise that "house prices never go down" and that "Americans always pay off their mortgages", and that losses could be accurately predicted and risks could be hedged by securitizing loans.

No one forced the banks to make these awful loans.  The banks loved them, and so did investors around the world.  It was a guaranteed gold mine, a 'sure bet' that generated billions in fees, payouts, and bonuses.  No one complained about the government's role in all this until it all came down.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:26:02 AM EDT
[#7]
Good Rant.  Rich and Poor alike are getting very frustrated with the path we are on.  However, the middle class is getting downright angry, because we are the ones who stand to lose everything.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:27:17 AM EDT
[#8]
I would forward this on to my congressidiots, but they are too stupid and arrogant to understand.  

They must GO in 2010 and 2012.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:32:07 AM EDT
[#9]
One would think that such a global financial mastermind would have at least a bronze membership here at Arfcom.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:33:56 AM EDT
[#10]
Quoted:
One would think that such a global financial mastermind would have at least a bronze membership here at Arfcom.


Pay for something you can get for free?  How dare you suggest such a thing!1!!1!!!

HERESY!!1!!!!!!
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:36:19 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artifically low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


So that's what caused them to loan $525000 on a $500000 dollar houses to people with no job, no income, and no assets?  No, it's not. It was the faulty premise that "house prices never go down" and that "Americans always pay off their mortgages", and that losses could be accurately predicted and risks could be hedged by securitizing loans.

No one forced the banks to make these awful loans.  The banks loved them, and so did investors around the world.  It was a guaranteed gold mine, a 'sure bet' that generated billions in fees, payouts, and bonuses.  No one complained about the government's role in all this until it all came down.


You are kidding right? If you have a .gov program that is geared "for the poor" that lowers the standards by which you get a loan, you cannot discriminate against other people simply because they have more money. So, if the Fed says "these loans are sound" of course financial institutions will offer them. The .gov opens the door by introducing the programs. There were plenty of people who complained about these loans for years. People didn't want to listen. I was actually working for a bank tied to the Fed in the 90's. I went to a meeting when they rolled out these programs. I was in charge of Nevada and there were about 60 of us representing all the states. We all asked questions like "wait, WHO is going to securitize this?" We were told "they are backed by the .gov". At the end of the meeting someone said "God help us all".

I got out over 5 years ago, because I saw what the results would be. At that time and in all the time since I have told my family, my friends, anyone that would listen to put every dime they could into savings, liquid assets. I told them "save as much as you can because you have no idea what this is going to turn into." I take no pleasure in being proven right.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:37:34 AM EDT
[#12]




Quoted:

One would think that such a global financial mastermind would have at least a bronze membership here at Arfcom.




You're right.



Just one.




Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:46:39 AM EDT
[#13]
Tag.  Good post.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:47:37 AM EDT
[#14]
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:54:55 AM EDT
[#15]
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


Hey good point! Now, can you tell us exactly WHAT we do produce?

The reason I have been telling people that things were really going to hit the fan is this. What value do we have as a country? We have become a nation of traders. We aren't producing squat. We buy goods made in the 3rd world and produce ?. You know what the top export is? Entertainment. That's right, Hollywood movies. How long do you think we can sustain this? It's a house of cards. This all started when we became a debtor nation years ago.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:57:07 AM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artifically low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


So that's what caused them to loan $525000 on a $500000 dollar houses to people with no job, no income, and no assets?  No, it's not. It was the faulty premise that "house prices never go down" and that "Americans always pay off their mortgages", and that losses could be accurately predicted and risks could be hedged by securitizing loans.

No one forced the banks to make these awful loans.  The banks loved them, and so did investors around the world.  It was a guaranteed gold mine, a 'sure bet' that generated billions in fees, payouts, and bonuses.  No one complained about the government's role in all this until it all came down.


You are kidding right? If you have a .gov program that is geared "for the poor" that lowers the standards by which you get a loan, you cannot discriminate against other people simply because they have more money. So, if the Fed says "these loans are sound" of course financial institutions will offer them. The .gov opens the door by introducing the programs. There were plenty of people who complained about these loans for years. People didn't want to listen. I was actually working for a bank tied to the Fed in the 90's. I went to a meeting when they rolled out these programs. I was in charge of Nevada and there were about 60 of us representing all the states. We all asked questions like "wait, WHO is going to securitize this?" We were told "they are backed by the .gov". At the end of the meeting someone said "God help us all".

I got out over 5 years ago, because I saw what the results would be. At that time and in all the time since I have told my family, my friends, anyone that would listen to put every dime they could into savings, liquid assets. I told them "save as much as you can because you have no idea what this is going to turn into." I take no pleasure in being proven right.



My disagreement is with the notion that this crisis was entirely caused by "those poor people got loans they didn't deserve and they blew up the banks".  That is not true and was a fallacy that arose when this was a "subprime" crisis.  But it's not about "subprime".  Anyone in America could have gone out and bought any house they wanted to with a stated-income, NINJA, interest-only loan.  And several at a time, at that.  There is lots of blame to go around, but saying, "it's Jesse Jackson's fault" or "the government did it" is playing to the ill-informed and weak of mind, in my opinion.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:58:28 AM EDT
[#17]
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


I blows my mind how often people confuse shorting with antiamerican sentiment.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 6:58:59 AM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
Austrian, thanks for taking the time to post this.  Very insightful.   I can't believe that Congress isn't taking into account what happens when you try to assign unwarranted blame to motivated, talented people, who can make money virtually anywhere in the world.  It's going to take us a long time to rebuild from where we are now.



Quoted:
So your solution is to RUN?

Well, I guess that jives with my sense of what we could expect from all the "new" citizens that we collected over the last 40 years.

I suppose you will be sipping French wine and enjoying Swiss cheese waiting for someone to put things right while we fight for the soul of our country as we have done twice already in my family starting in 1776 and again in 1861 (we lost the second time but we tried and died in droves) .  We earned our right to be here, we paid for it in gallons of blood and sweat over the past 400 years.  Not willing to pay the price, Johnny come lately?  Go ahead and run and don't come back, ya' hear!!?  There will be nothing for you here when you return, you and yours will NOT be welcome.  I may be here or not, but my sons will be assuming what is coming does not last for 10 years or longer and they don't have to pay the price, they will be watching for you to try and return.

Offended?  Prove me wrong!!!  Change your mind and pledge your life, fortune and sacred honor in which case welcome to the fight brother.  

God help us all.


http://i253.photobucket.com/albums/hh62/creasy15/bustedteesd3bbf3803bd7c1266f6c0d068.jpg



Screw you and your stupid picture.

I spent a couple years in school I paid for as well...  I am moderately successful, I work for Fortune 500 companies as a consultant, JPMC, LVNA...

I also spent 4 years in the Navy and I am a veteran of the Gulf War.  Never ran suppose you will, bye.



Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:02:02 AM EDT
[#19]
Actually, I think *I* am the one to blame for the financial crisis.  I've never been late on my mortgage.  I knew what I could afford, and stuck to it.  It must be my fault.  After all, *I* am the one paying for it.





Great rant, though, and I agree with it.



 
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:20:55 AM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artificially low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


So that's what caused them to loan $525000 on a $500000 dollar houses to people with no job, no income, and no assets?  No, it's not. It was the faulty premise that "house prices never go down" and that "Americans always pay off their mortgages", and that losses could be accurately predicted and risks could be hedged by securitizing loans.

No one forced the banks to make these awful loans.  The banks loved them, and so did investors around the world.  It was a guaranteed gold mine, a 'sure bet' that generated billions in fees, payouts, and bonuses.  No one complained about the government's role in all this until it all came down.


You are kidding right? If you have a .gov program that is geared "for the poor" that lowers the standards by which you get a loan, you cannot discriminate against other people simply because they have more money. So, if the Fed says "these loans are sound" of course financial institutions will offer them. The .gov opens the door by introducing the programs. There were plenty of people who complained about these loans for years. People didn't want to listen. I was actually working for a bank tied to the Fed in the 90's. I went to a meeting when they rolled out these programs. I was in charge of Nevada and there were about 60 of us representing all the states. We all asked questions like "wait, WHO is going to securitize this?" We were told "they are backed by the .gov". At the end of the meeting someone said "God help us all".

I got out over 5 years ago, because I saw what the results would be. At that time and in all the time since I have told my family, my friends, anyone that would listen to put every dime they could into savings, liquid assets. I told them "save as much as you can because you have no idea what this is going to turn into." I take no pleasure in being proven right.



My disagreement is with the notion that this crisis was entirely caused by "those poor people got loans they didn't deserve and they blew up the banks".  That is not true and was a fallacy that arose when this was a "subprime" crisis.  But it's not about "subprime".  Anyone in America could have gone out and bought any house they wanted to with a stated-income, NINJA, interest-only loan.  And several at a time, at that.  There is lots of blame to go around, but saying, "it's Jesse Jackson's fault" or "the government did it" is playing to the ill-informed and weak of mind, in my opinion.


Well, you actually contradict yourself. First you say "was entirely caused by those poor people got loans they didn't deserve...." Then you say "the government did it". You have to go back to what I said. Yes, the main root cause was the .gov encouraged this behavior. THEY "opened the door" to these loans by offering loans to people that can't afford a house. WHEN you offer these programs you then open the door to everyone getting these loans. You do realize that it is discriminatory to reject a loan to anyone if you offer them to other people based on income right? So, if you offer group A a loan because "everyone should be able to get a loan regardless of the fact that you can pay it back" then you have to offer it to everyone. Everyone disses the "SISA" loans but they actually have a place. HOWEVER, hardly anyone used them the right way. The problem is that you have to make the same payment per month regardless if it is an interest only loan or not. Let's say the payment on the house is $2,000 a month at fixed rates. The interest only loan has a five year cap. The interest rate that is being amortized is 3%. IF you take the difference between the interest only payment and the actual amortized cost and invest it into a simple interest bearing account, at the end of five years you will have enough money to pay off the balloon payment due. This requires some financial savvy. What people actually did was put nothing down on a house, went out and bought furniture, hell a new SUV, whatever they could. Then they waited a year, got a new appraisal and used THAT money to buy more crap they didn't actually need.

Now we are bailing all those people out.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:25:09 AM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


I blows my mind how often people confuse shorting with antiamerican sentiment.


I think shorting stocks is a valid strategy and one that could have been potentially highly profitable over the last couple of years.

However, I think our country has suffered, on the whole, by making finance, real estate, and insurance such a huge part of our economy, while our manufacturing base has dwindled.  What do we have to show for it?  Trillions in public and private debt, and massive trade imbalances.  

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:34:55 AM EDT
[#22]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


I blows my mind how often people confuse shorting with antiamerican sentiment.


I think shorting stocks is a valid strategy and one that could have been potentially highly profitable over the last couple of years.

However, I think our country has suffered, on the whole, by making finance, real estate, and insurance such a huge part of our economy, while our manufacturing base has dwindled.  What do we have to show for it?  Trillions in public and private debt, and massive trade imbalances.  



As Microsoft announces that they are moving most jobs offshore in order "to compete in the world economy"

Yet we see post after post (in fact it's a running joke) about going to Wal-Mart and buying stuff. So you go out and spend money in stores that only employ people that are money collectors. Does Wal-Mart then infuse their profits back into the economy? If people would only rent the movie "The high cost of low prices" then maybe others would quit feeding this monster. But they won't.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:35:49 AM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


I blows my mind how often people confuse shorting with antiamerican sentiment.


I think shorting stocks is a valid strategy and one that could have been potentially highly profitable over the last couple of years.

However, I think our country has suffered, on the whole, by making finance, real estate, and insurance such a huge part of our economy, while our manufacturing base has dwindled.  What do we have to show for it?  Trillions in public and private debt, and massive trade imbalances.  



Shorting stocks can certainly make you money if you do it right, but it also just rubs me the wrong way.  Instead of investing in a company and believing in it, you're making a bet that something bad will happen.  The original purpose of the stock market was to raise capital so businesses could flourish, not to make brokers rich by gambling.

It's also dangerous, as you effectively have the ability to lose unlimited money if the stock goes up instead of down.  The recent destruction of some hedge funds at the hands of Porsche is a good example.  The funds were shorting VW and then Porsche comes along and quietly buys up a majority of VW stock and then announces they have done so, the stock goes through the roof, and now the hedge funds are on the hook for a shit ton of money.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:38:30 AM EDT
[#24]
Pause. Recalibrating.


That, Austrian, is positively inspired.

Not only for what you are saying, but a view into what will be happening.


Pissing off the financial community may be the fundamental game-changer.



The questions it raises are twofold:

1) Does Obama (his handlers of course, not TelePrompter himself) recognize this?

2) Did Soros anticipate this and short the markets again? (in anticipation of the Breaking of the Bank of England on an entirely different order of magnitude)
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:45:08 AM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
I would forward this on to my congressidiots, but they are too stupid and arrogant to understand.  

They must GO in 2010 and 2012.


I was thinking the same thing. You beat me to it. Please post their reply if you want.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:48:33 AM EDT
[#26]
Quoted:
You're free to do as you wish.

I went out on my own over a decade ago. My success or failure is mine and mine alone.

If I have a bad year, or lose money on a contract, I do not go crying to the government for a bailout. As long as you do the same, I have no issue.

The MINUTE a company starts accepting public bailouts for their business failures, no matter what their origin, they are no longer Capitalists and have become welfare leeches.

People do not have problems with companies making a profit (well, rational people do not) - that is the essence of business. People do take issue with companies taking public funds, particularly those firms who have poured millions into the coffers of those making the decisions of who gets government help. Does not pass the smell test.




I with you up to the sentence that ends with "essence of business". However, the whole concept of "gov bailouts" IMHO is dead wrong. What the .gov has promoted is a few large corporations controlling business. IF these large corporations fail then we the people are supposed to prop them up? This path can only lead us down the road to socialism (which is their end game make no mistake about it) Then, even though that business says "AIG', it is nothing more than the .gov bank or the .gov store. In the words of Reagan "The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them away." So, if you really want to screw things up, get the .gov involved.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:54:14 AM EDT
[#27]
Quoted:
You're free to do as you wish.

I went out on my own over a decade ago. My success or failure is mine and mine alone.

If I have a bad year, or lose money on a contract, I do not go crying to the government for a bailout. As long as you do the same, I have no issue.

The MINUTE a company starts accepting public bailouts for their business failures, no matter what their origin, they are no longer Capitalists and have become welfare leeches.

People do not have problems with companies making a profit (well, rational people do not) - that is the essence of business. People do take issue with companies taking public funds, particularly those firms who have poured millions into the coffers of those making the decisions of who gets government help. Does not pass the smell test.




Wow, I'm in complete agreement.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:57:36 AM EDT
[#28]
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:59:01 AM EDT
[#29]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


I blows my mind how often people confuse shorting with antiamerican sentiment.


I think shorting stocks is a valid strategy and one that could have been potentially highly profitable over the last couple of years.

However, I think our country has suffered, on the whole, by making finance, real estate, and insurance such a huge part of our economy, while our manufacturing base has dwindled.  What do we have to show for it?  Trillions in public and private debt, and massive trade imbalances.  



Shorting stocks can certainly make you money if you do it right, but it also just rubs me the wrong way.  Instead of investing in a company and believing in it, you're making a bet that something bad will happen.  The original purpose of the stock market was to raise capital so businesses could flourish, not to make brokers rich by gambling.

It's also dangerous, as you effectively have the ability to lose unlimited money if the stock goes up instead of down.  The recent destruction of some hedge funds at the hands of Porsche is a good example.  The funds were shorting VW and then Porsche comes along and quietly buys up a majority of VW stock and then announces they have done so, the stock goes through the roof, and now the hedge funds are on the hook for a shit ton of money.


I have no issues with legitimate shorting of shares where you have to borrow the shares and deliver them to the buyer. Please see the comments in red above. If the stock is on the SHO list, it means shares have not been delivered and if you short, you are illegally naked shorting the company. That creates more shares than actually exist. Supply exceeds demand and share prices go down––a self fulfilling turn of events. Wall Street and the SEC denied this was a problem for many years. But as soon as the "in" crowd started getting a taste of its own medicine, the SEC forbade NAKED short selling of 700 companies on the special list. Wall Street is a crooked game. Most in the market from 2000 to 2007 actually lost money after factoring inflation. Yet a small group of hedge funds have sucked dry our retirements.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:59:04 AM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artificially low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


So that's what caused them to loan $525000 on a $500000 dollar houses to people with no job, no income, and no assets?  No, it's not. It was the faulty premise that "house prices never go down" and that "Americans always pay off their mortgages", and that losses could be accurately predicted and risks could be hedged by securitizing loans.

No one forced the banks to make these awful loans.  The banks loved them, and so did investors around the world.  It was a guaranteed gold mine, a 'sure bet' that generated billions in fees, payouts, and bonuses.  No one complained about the government's role in all this until it all came down.


You are kidding right? If you have a .gov program that is geared "for the poor" that lowers the standards by which you get a loan, you cannot discriminate against other people simply because they have more money. So, if the Fed says "these loans are sound" of course financial institutions will offer them. The .gov opens the door by introducing the programs. There were plenty of people who complained about these loans for years. People didn't want to listen. I was actually working for a bank tied to the Fed in the 90's. I went to a meeting when they rolled out these programs. I was in charge of Nevada and there were about 60 of us representing all the states. We all asked questions like "wait, WHO is going to securitize this?" We were told "they are backed by the .gov". At the end of the meeting someone said "God help us all".

I got out over 5 years ago, because I saw what the results would be. At that time and in all the time since I have told my family, my friends, anyone that would listen to put every dime they could into savings, liquid assets. I told them "save as much as you can because you have no idea what this is going to turn into." I take no pleasure in being proven right.



My disagreement is with the notion that this crisis was entirely caused by "those poor people got loans they didn't deserve and they blew up the banks".  That is not true and was a fallacy that arose when this was a "subprime" crisis.  But it's not about "subprime".  Anyone in America could have gone out and bought any house they wanted to with a stated-income, NINJA, interest-only loan.  And several at a time, at that.  There is lots of blame to go around, but saying, "it's Jesse Jackson's fault" or "the government did it" is playing to the ill-informed and weak of mind, in my opinion.


Well, you actually contradict yourself. First you say "was entirely caused by those poor people got loans they didn't deserve...." Then you say "the government did it". You have to go back to what I said. Yes, the main root cause was the .gov encouraged this behavior. THEY "opened the door" to these loans by offering loans to people that can't afford a house. WHEN you offer these programs you then open the door to everyone getting these loans. You do realize that it is discriminatory to reject a loan to anyone if you offer them to other people based on income right? So, if you offer group A a loan because "everyone should be able to get a loan regardless of the fact that you can pay it back" then you have to offer it to everyone. Everyone disses the "SISA" loans but they actually have a place. HOWEVER, hardly anyone used them the right way. The problem is that you have to make the same payment per month regardless if it is an interest only loan or not. Let's say the payment on the house is $2,000 a month at fixed rates. The interest only loan has a five year cap. The interest rate that is being amortized is 3%. IF you take the difference between the interest only payment and the actual amortized cost and invest it into a simple interest bearing account, at the end of five years you will have enough money to pay off the balloon payment due. This requires some financial savvy. What people actually did was put nothing down on a house, went out and bought furniture, hell a new SUV, whatever they could. Then they waited a year, got a new appraisal and used THAT money to buy more crap they didn't actually need.

Now we are bailing all those people out.



Please re-read the post.  I was ridiculing those blaming the government (primarily blaming it, anyway).
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 7:59:44 AM EDT
[#31]
Oh, and I agree with just about everything the OP wrote.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 8:03:01 AM EDT
[#32]
Quoted:
Quoted:
You're free to do as you wish.

I went out on my own over a decade ago. My success or failure is mine and mine alone.

If I have a bad year, or lose money on a contract, I do not go crying to the government for a bailout. As long as you do the same, I have no issue.

The MINUTE a company starts accepting public bailouts for their business failures, no matter what their origin, they are no longer Capitalists and have become welfare leeches.

People do not have problems with companies making a profit (well, rational people do not) - that is the essence of business. People do take issue with companies taking public funds, particularly those firms who have poured millions into the coffers of those making the decisions of who gets government help. Does not pass the smell test.




I with you up to the sentence that ends with "essence of business". However, the whole concept of "gov bailouts" IMHO is dead wrong. What the .gov has promoted is a few large corporations controlling business. IF these large corporations fail then we the people are supposed to prop them up? This path can only lead us down the road to socialism (which is their end game make no mistake about it) Then, even though that business says "AIG', it is nothing more than the .gov bank or the .gov store. In the words of Reagan "The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them away." So, if you really want to screw things up, get the .gov involved.



Agreed that when it comes to fouling things up, the .gov is without peer.

I edited out that original post as what Austrian is hinting at is being implemented all over the world as we speak. There IS a shit-ton of money in moving wealth around, and it is a 24 x 7 operation. They are not going to wait to see what others do, the writing is clearly on the wall and now the race is on to not only avoid the next disaster, but capitalize on it.

While we are down in the trenches immersed in the details there are far greater games afoot. And not all the players are in it purely for financial advantage.


Dammit, this is one of those threads that just kicks you in the head and wakes you up.



Link Posted: 3/22/2009 8:24:35 AM EDT
[#33]
ACORN bus has been dispatched.....
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 8:30:51 AM EDT
[#34]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artificially low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


So that's what caused them to loan $525000 on a $500000 dollar houses to people with no job, no income, and no assets?  No, it's not. It was the faulty premise that "house prices never go down" and that "Americans always pay off their mortgages", and that losses could be accurately predicted and risks could be hedged by securitizing loans.

No one forced the banks to make these awful loans.  The banks loved them, and so did investors around the world.  It was a guaranteed gold mine, a 'sure bet' that generated billions in fees, payouts, and bonuses.  No one complained about the government's role in all this until it all came down.


You are kidding right? If you have a .gov program that is geared "for the poor" that lowers the standards by which you get a loan, you cannot discriminate against other people simply because they have more money. So, if the Fed says "these loans are sound" of course financial institutions will offer them. The .gov opens the door by introducing the programs. There were plenty of people who complained about these loans for years. People didn't want to listen. I was actually working for a bank tied to the Fed in the 90's. I went to a meeting when they rolled out these programs. I was in charge of Nevada and there were about 60 of us representing all the states. We all asked questions like "wait, WHO is going to securitize this?" We were told "they are backed by the .gov". At the end of the meeting someone said "God help us all".

I got out over 5 years ago, because I saw what the results would be. At that time and in all the time since I have told my family, my friends, anyone that would listen to put every dime they could into savings, liquid assets. I told them "save as much as you can because you have no idea what this is going to turn into." I take no pleasure in being proven right.



My disagreement is with the notion that this crisis was entirely caused by "those poor people got loans they didn't deserve and they blew up the banks".  That is not true and was a fallacy that arose when this was a "subprime" crisis.  But it's not about "subprime".  Anyone in America could have gone out and bought any house they wanted to with a stated-income, NINJA, interest-only loan.  And several at a time, at that.  There is lots of blame to go around, but saying, "it's Jesse Jackson's fault" or "the government did it" is playing to the ill-informed and weak of mind, in my opinion.


Well, you actually contradict yourself. First you say "was entirely caused by those poor people got loans they didn't deserve...." Then you say "the government did it". You have to go back to what I said. Yes, the main root cause was the .gov encouraged this behavior. THEY "opened the door" to these loans by offering loans to people that can't afford a house. WHEN you offer these programs you then open the door to everyone getting these loans. You do realize that it is discriminatory to reject a loan to anyone if you offer them to other people based on income right? So, if you offer group A a loan because "everyone should be able to get a loan regardless of the fact that you can pay it back" then you have to offer it to everyone. Everyone disses the "SISA" loans but they actually have a place. HOWEVER, hardly anyone used them the right way. The problem is that you have to make the same payment per month regardless if it is an interest only loan or not. Let's say the payment on the house is $2,000 a month at fixed rates. The interest only loan has a five year cap. The interest rate that is being amortized is 3%. IF you take the difference between the interest only payment and the actual amortized cost and invest it into a simple interest bearing account, at the end of five years you will have enough money to pay off the balloon payment due. This requires some financial savvy. What people actually did was put nothing down on a house, went out and bought furniture, hell a new SUV, whatever they could. Then they waited a year, got a new appraisal and used THAT money to buy more crap they didn't actually need.

Now we are bailing all those people out.



Please re-read the post.  I was ridiculing those blaming the government (primarily blaming it, anyway).


I read it an responded that yes, the .gov is primarily at fault here. Re-read the OP's post. There is a root cause for this happening. The root cause is that "everyone should own a home", like it's some right written in the Constitution or something. Private lenders always used guidelines to lend money. Primarily it is the ability to pay back the money you are lent. When the .gov introduces programs that throw the criteria out the window, like they don't matter, then private lending now has to compete with the .gov. So when you backtrack back to the root cause you end up with .gov getting involved in criteria for lending.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 8:43:22 AM EDT
[#35]



Quoted:



Quoted:

If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.



What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.



There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.




Hey good point! Now, can you tell us exactly WHAT we do produce?



The reason I have been telling people that things were really going to hit the fan is this. What value do we have as a country? We have become a nation of traders. We aren't producing squat. We buy goods made in the 3rd world and produce ?. You know what the top export is? Entertainment. That's right, Hollywood movies. How long do you think we can sustain this? It's a house of cards. This all started when we became a debtor nation years ago.

Yeah,

We as a nation do not manufacture anything, anymore, with the exception of roads and houses/buildings.

And we import the oil to make the asphalt, the cement to make the concrete and the steel to reinforce the concrete.



Now even the construction sector is in the shitter.

So make me a list of the actual PRODUCERS in this country.

It's a pretty short list.



WTF?



All the lawyers, doctors, politicians, administrators, stock brokers, fund managers, bankers, public servants, (whatever that is, today)

.gov, 3-letter .gov depts,

ADD NOTHING TO THE ECONOMY.



Say that out loud 3 times.





Try playing a game of monopoly with the addition of today's tax structure.

It doesn't work. The same way our current economy doesn't work.



There are not enough producers to cover the sponges.

Hasn't been for a long time. And the difference is made up with credit/borrowing.

Now we gotta pay the piper.



Pretty soon this bubble will REALLY pop.

The sooner we get back to a CASH based economy, the better.

Unfortunately, it will probably take a revolution/depression to get there.



IMHO YMMV
 
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 8:51:16 AM EDT
[#36]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


Hey good point! Now, can you tell us exactly WHAT we do produce?

The reason I have been telling people that things were really going to hit the fan is this. What value do we have as a country? We have become a nation of traders. We aren't producing squat. We buy goods made in the 3rd world and produce ?. You know what the top export is? Entertainment. That's right, Hollywood movies. How long do you think we can sustain this? It's a house of cards. This all started when we became a debtor nation years ago.
Yeah,
We as a nation do not manufacture anything, anymore, with the exception of roads and houses/buildings.
And we import the oil to make the asphalt, the cement to make the concrete and the steel to reinforce the concrete.

Now even the construction sector is in the shitter.
So make me a list of the actual PRODUCERS in this country.
It's a pretty short list.

WTF?

All the lawyers, doctors, politicians, administrators, stock brokers, fund managers, bankers, public servants, (whatever that is, today)
.gov, 3-letter .gov depts,
ADD NOTHING TO THE ECONOMY.

Say that out loud 3 times.


Try playing a game of monopoly with the addition of today's tax structure.
It doesn't work. The same way our current economy doesn't work.

There are not enough producers to cover the sponges.
Hasn't been for a long time. And the difference is made up with credit/borrowing.
Now we gotta pay the piper.

Pretty soon this bubble will REALLY pop.
The sooner we get back to a CASH gold based economy, the better.
Unfortunately, it will probably take a revolution/depression to get there.

IMHO YMMV



 


Only thing I would change.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 8:56:16 AM EDT
[#37]
Lookit. Here's the main take away point from this: For the past few decades many of America's (and the world's) best & brightest have gone into the finance world. That in itself is no surprise as talent naturally follows rewards. Not only are this bunch smart, but they have the tools to impact things in a big way. Now, take a bunch of these people, some of whom have given you money and turn around and throw them under the bus. What is their reaction going to be?

There are going to be two groups here, possibly three.

1) Capitalists who are ticked off at .gov intervention and are going to move to friendlier environs.

2) Opportunists with no allegiance to anyone but themselves who will work this period of turmoil, consequences be damned.

(I differentiate between 1 and 2 as the former have societal along with personal commitment)

3) Former supporters who have been burned by their political progeny - I would posit that 'hell hath no fury like a woman scorned' will pale in comparison to 'an investment banker scorned' (Although in the case of the Swedish 'Countess' for whom $43 million isn't enough, the combination of the two is almost too terrible to contemplate)


One has to think that right now there are more than a few bonus babies looking at having their bailout dangled in front of them only to be yanked away for political points. And one has to think that absent a backdoor plan to placate same, they are angry as hell, probably not hearing back from their Congresscritters (who they lavishly supported in the past) and are of a mind to exact a price for this betrayal. Not profit.  

Understand that with the Trillions of wealth that have been destroyed since the ascension of The One, these guys have had their worlds turned upside down. I'd bet they have some pretty unhappy customers. And trophy spouses now considering deserting the sinking ship. And a good bit of their personal wealth and retirement plans up in smoke.

The guy on the floor saying (out loud) F.O. is likely not a lonely voice in the woods.

So you get some of the brightest guys on the planet who know the financial systems inside and out furious. What will be their next move?

Congress may be a gaggle of dimly-aware sea slugs (my apologies to aquatic life for the comparison) but even the densest stooge has to recognize that a bunch of ticked off Wall Street whiz kids is 5000x more hazardous to their careers than an army of pudgy middle-aged camo-clad guys farting around in the woods of Michigan.


The Socialists may get more than they bargained for...



Link Posted: 3/22/2009 9:06:09 AM EDT
[#38]
Quoted:
Quoted:
So your solution is to RUN?

Well, I guess that jives with my sense of what we could expect from all the "new" citizens that we collected over the last 40 years.



He is not running. He is shrugging.

One of the main points of Atlas Shrugged is drawing the line where you stop funding the Collectivist ideals through your own productivity.

By introducing compensation caps they have arbitrary set a value on the product of his mind. So he either accepts the control (and his success funds the continuation of the socialist polices) or he “shrugs” and withdraws the product of his mind from this country until it reverts back to it's capitalistic foundation.

I am with Austrian on this one and I thank him for his most excellent rant.


+1 on the rant.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 9:40:25 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:
Lookit. Here's the main take away point from this: For the past few decades many of America's (and the world's) best & brightest have gone into the finance world. That in itself is no surprise as talent naturally follows rewards. Not only are this bunch smart, but they have the tools to impact things in a big way. Now, take a bunch of these people, some of whom have given you money and turn around and throw them under the bus. What is their reaction going to be?

There are going to be two groups here, possibly three.

1) Capitalists who are ticked off at .gov intervention and are going to move to friendlier environs.

2) Opportunists with no allegiance to anyone but themselves who will work this period of turmoil, consequences be damned.

(I differentiate between 1 and 2 as the former have societal along with personal commitment)

3) Former supporters who have been burned by their political progeny - I would posit that 'hell hath no fury like a woman scorned' will pale in comparison to 'an investment banker scorned' (Although in the case of the Swedish 'Countess' for whom $43 million isn't enough, the combination of the two is almost too terrible to contemplate)


One has to think that right now there are more than a few bonus babies looking at having their bailout dangled in front of them only to be yanked away for political points. And one has to think that absent a backdoor plan to placate same, they are angry as hell, probably not hearing back from their Congresscritters (who they lavishly supported in the past) and are of a mind to exact a price for this betrayal. Not profit.  

Understand that with the Trillions of wealth that have been destroyed since the ascension of The One, these guys have had their worlds turned upside down. I'd bet they have some pretty unhappy customers. And trophy spouses now considering deserting the sinking ship. And a good bit of their personal wealth and retirement plans up in smoke.

The guy on the floor saying (out loud) F.O. is likely not a lonely voice in the woods.

So you get some of the brightest guys on the planet who know the financial systems inside and out furious. What will be their next move?
Congress may be a gaggle of dimly-aware sea slugs (my apologies to aquatic life for the comparison) but even the densest stooge has to recognize that a bunch of ticked off Wall Street whiz kids is 5000x more hazardous to their careers than an army of pudgy middle-aged camo-clad guys farting around in the woods of Michigan.


The Socialists may get more than they bargained for...





I'm not saying at all that I'm "one of the brightest people on the planet" but in my case:

I shrugged.

Your signature says that you will understand that. I refused to be part of the system anymore.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 9:45:23 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Sad that money makers get punished, and leaches get rewarded.  It's fucked up.

I wish you well in your future.

Edit ... I'd like to snag this too.


Yours.

Thanks for asking permission, but, for the rest of you, feel free to copy-paste wherever, however, whenever.  Nice to add a link back to ARFCOM, but I'm hardly in a position to enforce that.


Let me be the first to apologize to you for the treatment you have recieved at the hands of our "government".

You did the honorable thing by going through the legal process and coming in the front door to our country. You have done everything correctly and only wanted what was the dream that this country is supposed to offer to all. We need more like you and I hope you will stay and help us fight these socialist bastards.

If you do not I will understand. Please know that "they" are not what the majority of this country are. They have just been able to hijack the process through any means available to impose their version of utopia on all of us.

I am not a hedge fund manager, I am not wealthy by any stretch of the imagination, I am a veteran and loyal to our constitution and the ideals that made my country great.

Those currently in the seat of government here I have NO loyalty to.. they are traitors and usurpers of a process that used to be the greates form of republican representation the world has known.

I am saddened to see where my country had gone... the direction it has taken. Just know.. "we" are not "them".

And one again I apologize for the treatment you have gotten at the hands of these bastards.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 9:59:16 AM EDT
[#41]
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  






They allowed discrimination lawsuits to occur.  They kept interest rates artifically low.  They funded groups (like acorn) that used intimidation tactics to get banks to make loans that wouldn't normally occur.


And obama is the one who really pushed it home... he is THE ONE who sued citigroup and had the courts MAKE them do exactly that.

Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:07:00 AM EDT
[#42]
Old School Tag for posterity's sake. Excellent Job, Austrian!
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:24:13 AM EDT
[#43]
Quoted:
I'm going to have to disagree with you.  I do blame the investment banks and "financial engineering" for nearly all of this crisis.

If a company takes government money, it is subject to its terms. The current bill before congress in its current form is unconstitutional and unfair, but let's also not forget that without taxpayer money, there would be no 'bonuses' to pay out in the first place.  Maybe those currently bellyaching about taxes on their bonuses should go work for Lehman, or Bair.  Are they hiring?

Show me the law passed by Congress or the banking regulation that mandated that banks lend money to people with no income, no assets, and no job.  At 105% LTV.  With interest-only, negative-amortizing loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' these lenders to securitize these loans.  Show me the law that 'forced' the ratings agencies to rate this garbage AAA in order to sell it around the world.  

And oh by the way, while the banks are selling this toxic waste as AAA paper, their in-house hedge funds were betting against it on the derivatives markets.  Often with AIG, Bair, and Lehman as the counterparties.

This global pool of "talent" that you speak of is the "talent" that created a $75 trillion dollar derivatives industry.  PhD level physicists and mathematicians along with the "smartest guys in the room" at the I-Banks helped create this system of unregulated insurance and gambling whose failure which, despite $8 trillion of bailouts and guarantees and counting may still harm the national and global economy.

So all this "talent" is free to relocate to anywhere on earth they think they can get a better deal.  But that's always been the case, right? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.  





Great post.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:29:23 AM EDT
[#44]
But I thought electing Obama would make the Europeans love us.  Now here's Austrian with his little nastygram to our Glorious Leader, what's up with that?
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:32:55 AM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
I offer up a toast to one of the finest and most accurate rants ever to grace ARFCOM.

Sir, a glass of Etter Yellow Plum Mundgeblasene Glasfruchtflasche from Switzerland will be poured in your honor.

https://www.weinquelle.com/fotos/s5899.jpg



ps. oh hell ya, I'm copy/pasting that one to a finance pal of mine.


Pour two glasses.  Have one one me.  :)
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:35:47 AM EDT
[#46]
Quoted:
One would think that such a global financial mastermind would have at least a bronze membership here at Arfcom.


Oh, I did for years.  Just let it lapse, and I don't post that much anymore.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:43:13 AM EDT
[#47]
Great post, Austrian!
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:48:29 AM EDT
[#48]
Austrian
can anything be done to fix this mess?
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:56:19 AM EDT
[#49]
Quoted:
If you are short any companies on the SHO list, please leave the country. You are a criminal. You have added no value to this country but are helping destroy it.


I want to address this.

Let's just look at what it means to be short something.  And I'm not talking about "naked shorting," but rather actually getting a borrow and a fill and going short, or buying puts.

I am telling the market that I think those resources are poorly placed.  I am making a claim, that the firm in question is in the bottom half of the curve.  That, eventually, it will fail.  Often, I am claiming that shabby or aggressive accounting will come home to roost.  Or that the PR machine in the firm is out of control.

I am performing a SERVICE.  I am calling illusion a lie.

This fantasy that nothing can ever go down, except for certain commodities (foodstuffs, oil, gasoline, but NOT gold or platinum) is a bane.  It is exactly what keeps nimrods pumping cash into dead firms.  It is the CNBC bullshit that convinces people they are entitled to 8% returns every year because they woke up.  It is disaster, waiting to happen.

Some firms do not belong among the living.  Rather than allow them to piss away resources, they need to be allowed to fail.

Failure is how the economy adjusts itself and reallocates resources to productive and profitable endeavors.  When I short and win at it, I SAVE cash, and channel it to my investors so it can be put to good use.

Banning short selling, or instituting mania like the "uptick rule" is nothing more than trying to change fundamental laws of supply and demand.  You can stall for awhile but watch out when the piper comes to be paid.  What's more, one of the hardest things you try to do is make money shorting.  Your dollar upside is, by definition, limited when you short stock.  Your downside is not.  Plus, you have everyone in that company, plus a rash of sell-side used car salesmen pumping the stock and, if the company is in real trouble, some execs fighting for their corporate lives.  EVERYTHING is aligned against you.  The entire fiction machine.  That's the real crime.

Read Einhorn's book on his experience with Allied Capital:

http://www.amazon.com/Fooling-Some-People-Updated-Revised/dp/0470073942

What real value does Wall Street give us? What do they produce? All I see is they create complex ways of moving money from here to there and collect a commission each time.


There are a lot of car salesmen in finance.  This is true of every profession.  Despite this, this country has enjoyed enormous prosperity because of finance.  Imagine where this country would be with, for instance, with the Chinese and the Japanese so willing to lend cheaply to us, if we had been creating surpluses every year for the last 20.  Picture that.  Just a 1% surplus of GDP every year for the last 10 would be a trillion dollars.  Can you imagine sitting on a trillion dollar surplus?  The fed would be working hard to keep the dollar weak so people could actually buy American exports and visit America.  Countries would be shoving cash at the United States.  (It would present other problems, of course, but I far prefer them to the present ones).

Now ask yourself- who was it who gave us a massive debt instead.  Guess what, it wasn't the finance guys.

There is no reason for finance to be 40% of the economy.


That's true.  America could (and might) go back to heavy industry (for instance) as its major industrial base.  The standard of living will shift accordingly- downward.
Link Posted: 3/22/2009 10:57:13 AM EDT
[#50]
They absolutely should not have bailed out anybody. I don't blame the greedy for doing what was legal, but it isn't illegal to laugh at them when they deliver my pizza either. And I would much rather have an argument over whose fault it all was with a well-dressed pizza delivery boy, than a hedge-fund manager.
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