I don't know what to believe, but to me, if you wanted to CAPTURE a guy like OBL without the overwhelming saturation of terrorist groups trying to outdo each others' terrorism to be the group who got OBL free... then the only way to really pull it off would be to convince everyone he was dead.
And it's hard to provide proof of a cover story that the most famous terrorist in the world was killed. So you come up with flimsy, but un-disprovable excuses for why there's no evidence and everyone just kind of goes along with it, because what else are you going to do?
I mean, terrorist groups have historically used hijackings, hostages, and other acts of terrorism to secure the freedom of their imprisoned comrades. Imagine the international shit storm that would erupt if the US announced OBL was in custody. It would be like the terrorist olympics... every terrorist and his cousin trying to get enough hostages or important enough hostages or kill enough people to pressure the US into releasing him. And it would be like whack-a-mole to deal with each group that popped up, and it would never end as long as OBL was still in custody. Not to mention the rescue attempts, etc.
So IF the US wanted him alive, the ONLY way to avoid all that would be to simply tell everyone he died. Problem solved. If that's what happened, he's in a CIA hole somewhere and no one will see him again anyway.
Like I said... I don't know what happened, but that makes more sense to me than the narrative we were fed. In the end I don't care either way.