It's not the Odds, it's the Stakes.

A SHFT event comes in all flavors and sizes. I lost my job several times over a 2 year period, that was a SHTF. The major power outage that the east coast and midwest experienced a few years ago was about 3 days from becoming a SERIOUS SHTF. Katrina was a SHTF.

I used to be blissfully ignorant about being minimally prepared for a disaster, but that big power outage was a real wake-up call for me. Things stayed civilized, but a few more days would have had people dying from dehydration, and all hell would have broken loose-just like in NOLA.

Now, it just seems stupid to me that the average person will happily buy insurance for their home, insurance for their house, etc. but they won't maintain any kind of insurance policy for their own survival should something terrible happen. It's almost funny to me also that the people in the Superdome in NOLA were TOLD to bring a 3 day supply of food and water, but most showed up with a 3 day supply of tennis shoes.

One good thing about Katrina was that it brought a lot of people  into a frame of mind where it really COULD happen to them. In the weeks following Katrina, the ARFCOM survival forum was like Grand Central Station. 90% of the new people are gone now, but a few things remained. One of the best things was that the Mountain House freeze dried group buys have continued with huge success and a lot of ARFCOMmers will never go hungry.

As Fight4 says, it's the stakes that matter.

Dave