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Link Posted: 7/1/2015 4:01:49 PM EDT
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It's a very fluid situation, and this poll, at best, is just a snapshot. My personal feeling is that the "yes" vote will win on Sunday. (If the "no" vote was going to win, it should have started out at 80%, prior to the closing of the banks, because of the loaded wording of the referendum question.) But the downside is that a "yes" vote will lead to further instability, calling into question the viability of the Tsipras government.

ETA: This means that Tsipras has a strong incentive to reach a settlement with the lenders before Sunday, so he can void the vote, or change his recommendation to the voters to a "yes," so he can avoid the political fallout.
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President Romney wants to know if their polls are as accurate as ours?


It's a very fluid situation, and this poll, at best, is just a snapshot. My personal feeling is that the "yes" vote will win on Sunday. (If the "no" vote was going to win, it should have started out at 80%, prior to the closing of the banks, because of the loaded wording of the referendum question.) But the downside is that a "yes" vote will lead to further instability, calling into question the viability of the Tsipras government.

ETA: This means that Tsipras has a strong incentive to reach a settlement with the lenders before Sunday, so he can void the vote, or change his recommendation to the voters to a "yes," so he can avoid the political fallout.



interesting analysis.  wanted to post as well that i appreciate your posting these Greeks threads, to keep us apprised of the goings on over there.

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 4:52:54 PM EDT
The Greeks are socialist and nationalists...

Nationalists + socialist = Nazi

We are seeing the rise of another Nazi state in Europe and reflects the government of the EU.

The new Nazi state.  The EU.  If the IMF follows count them in too.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 5:00:53 PM EDT

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Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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Link Posted: 7/1/2015 5:11:14 PM EDT
Greece needs europe a lot more than europe needs greece
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 6:32:52 PM EDT
At this point they are not really giving Greece money, they are paying off the people who were stupid to give Greece money.
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Exactly. Any new disbursements from the lenders are going to pay the interest and principal on old loans, so the lenders really would be protecting themselves. Greece is actually running a small "primary surplus," which means that tax receipts cover all the current expenses of the government, less service on the debt. (That is, it was running a primary surplus until this week's turmoil put a stop to bank transactions.)
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 7:16:45 PM EDT
The Greeks are socialist and nationalists...

Nationalists + socialist = Nazi

We are seeing the rise of another Nazi state in Europe and reflects the government of the EU.

The new Nazi state. The EU. If the IMF follows count them in too.
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That's way overblown. The true Nazis in Greece are the Golden Dawn party, which won 6.3% of the vote in the last election.

Then you have the Communists (KKE), who are old-line Stalinists and certainly not Greek nationalists. They won 5.6% of the vote.

In between these two extremes, there are five other parties represented in the Greek parliament. From left to right they are:

Syriza -- this is a coalition of various non-KKE leftists. It would be a stretch to call them Greek nationalists. 36.3% of the vote. Because of the first-past-the-post bonus in allocating parliamentary seats, they have 149 seats in the 300-member parliament, and lead the government coalition.

PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) -- this is pretty much socialist in name only. The name honors its founder, Andreas Papandreou. A former ruling party, it has been reduced to 4.7% of the vote.

To Potami (The River) -- a new centrist party founded by TV personality Stavros Theodorakis. Middle class and middle of the road, its claim to fame is strong support of the EU and the European orientation of the country. 6% of the vote.

New Democracy -- the other former ruling party. Its ideology ranges from centrist to deeply conservative, with neoliberal and globalist overtones. This forms the nucleus of the parliamentary opposition. 27.9% in the last election.

Independent Greeks -- this is a conservative, nationalist party whose members broke off from New Democracy over the issue of the bailout terms. 4.7% of the vote. Its 13 parliamentary members are added to Syriza to make up the governing coalition. The leader of Independent Greeks, Panos Kammenos, has the job of Defense Minister, which suits him perfectly given his militaristic, even jingoistic tendencies. (He's threatening to bring down the government if there are cuts to the defense budget.)
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 7:22:33 PM EDT
FPNI
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 7:24:31 PM EDT
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Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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What?

Did I miss the announcement Obama has pledged to bail them out?

Link Posted: 7/1/2015 8:44:10 PM EDT
Update: Just as I suspected, the tide is turning in favor of the "yes" vote.

A new poll by the polling firm GPO for the BNP Paribas bank shows that among likely voters, those that would vote "yes" are 47.1% versus 43.2% that would vote "no." The margin of error is 3.1%.

Tsipras needs to get out of this self-created box, and quickly. But the lenders are not letting him do this in any plausible way.

http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22768&subid=2&pubid=64211620
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 8:53:12 PM EDT
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Quoted:
The Greeks are socialist and nationalists...

Nationalists + socialist = Nazi

We are seeing the rise of another Nazi state in Europe and reflects the government of the EU.

The new Nazi state.  The EU.  If the IMF follows count them in too.
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Well if a country is going to go nazi we can be glad it's made up of the laziest people on earth.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 8:59:03 PM EDT
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So they vote 'yes' and kick the can a little further. yawn.
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Seems Detroit did with little repercussions.
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 9:01:27 PM EDT
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Anyone who gives those clowns money is an idiot.
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That would be the Germans in the first place
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 9:10:04 PM EDT
Bailing Greece out would be like giving money to junkie, a total waste ne'er to be seen again
Link Posted: 7/1/2015 9:14:08 PM EDT
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So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.

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What remained were collateral additions requested by the Greek side having to do with the long-term viability of the debt, and a development program to bring Greece out of recession.


So, fixing the destruction wrought by Marxism by enacting more Marxism.... it's foolproof.



Because it seems less scary when you feel like there's some sort of central control.  Many many people are comforted by a strong power telling them what to do.  It's got to be scary to be a Greek in Greece right now, and they are doubling down on the easy way, the less scary way.  

Problem is that when you are in the position they are in, the answer is to do whatever it takes to up your national GDP and pay off that damn debt.  Then remember and learn the lessons necessary to continue to promote industry, wealth, and excellence.  You don't do that with socialism.  Socialism, at best, promotes middle-of-the-road performance because it does not greatly reward the hard work required to be truly great.  It does, however, appeal on an individual basis because it involves less personal risk of failure.  

However, the end result, is that on an individual level, people are driven to create that "safety" while condemning the overall nation to what Greece is suffering.  

Think about it, what does Greece do well?  What?  What are they known for doing in current times that was worth really investing in?  

Sure, it works for a little while.......but if you don't reward success and not condemn the successful, hard working people to a life of misery working to get their earnings to watching the worthless commit crime, robbing the earning public of their legally gotten gains on two fronts at the same time......

That's what you get.  Fewer and fewer people willing to be excellent.  More and more people figure out it's stupid to be the one actually doing work when you could be taken care of and not spend all that time at work.

It's what we are headed towards.
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