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Link Posted: 12/7/2013 6:05:04 PM EDT
[#1]
Golden BB. It happens.
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Kind of a simplistic analogy, and not quite accurate.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 6:14:08 PM EDT
[#2]
SAMs were not actually very effective in Vietnam,they just threw  10,000 of the things in the air.


 They had about a 5% success rate in 64-65 but after the Israelis captured complete systems and they were exploited,about 1 SA-2 out of every 100 launched would destroy a US plane by 1972. What SAMs did do was force US aircraft down to heights where the huge amount of AAA took a pretty heavy toll.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 6:23:31 PM EDT
[#3]
SAMs were not actually very effective in Vietnam,they just threw 10,000 of the things in the air.

They had about a 5% success rate in 64-65 but after the Israelis captured complete systems and they were exploited,about 1 SA-2 out of every 100 launched would destroy a US plane by 1972. What SAMs did do was force US aircraft down to heights where the huge amount of AAA took a pretty heavy toll.
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Any system that forces you to change tactics, alter attack altitudes, and makes you even more vulnerable to AAA is by very definition "effective".  The Vietnamese didn't give a damn how the planes were shot down, as long as they were being shot down...or forced to jettison bomb loads, abort missions, etc.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 6:58:32 PM EDT
[#4]
Oh, I remember reading someone, lol, most likely here about someone telling the serbs to test a new way of using a bistatic radar setup along a known route to see if they can catch a F117 Nighthawk.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:00:35 PM EDT
[#5]

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What I don't understand is why that site wasn't immediately hit with JDAM's to destroy the wreckage?  I'm sure the Serbs trucked all of it to either Russia or China as was paid handsomely.



 
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:11:04 PM EDT
[#6]
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Quoted:
What I don't understand is why that site wasn't immediately hit with JDAM's to destroy the wreckage?  I'm sure the Serbs trucked all of it to either Russia or China as was paid handsomely.
 
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Quoted:
What I don't understand is why that site wasn't immediately hit with JDAM's to destroy the wreckage?  I'm sure the Serbs trucked all of it to either Russia or China as was paid handsomely.
 



You want to fly another F-117 into an area with a SAM system that can apparently down low observable aircraft which you apparently knew nothing about?



Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:27:08 PM EDT
[#7]
It takes a real man to go to war in a track suit. I never understood that shit.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:28:42 PM EDT
[#8]
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Quoted:
There's a brief analysis of the shootdown in "NATO's Air War for Kosovo: A Strategic and Operational Assessment" beginning on page 116 (Page 16 of this Chapter 6 PDF). Can't copy-paste due to formatting issues. That's a great read for anyone interested in the conflict in general. I've seen a better analysis of the shootdown but I can't remember the title.

It's surprising that an SA-3 is responsible, since they were the least survivable of Serbia's air defense assets.
 
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I don't buy the 'official story' on this shoot down. It wasn't a "lucky shot" by a skilled ADA crew, it was a different radar array supplied by the Russians.

Right after that F117 was shot down, we dropped a JDAM on a nearby bunker complex at a neighboring airfield. The Russians IMMEDIATELY sent in a shitload of SPETZNAZ paratroopers in by airdropping them in with barely any supplies and no water. Clinton, being the pussy that he was, didn't call them on it as they dismantled and shipped out their radar array and equipment.

The russians figured out how to target the F117. Sure, the aircraft was a slow and small bomb truck but I suspect the shoot-down by Russian AD assets meant the F117's days were numbered before it became unsupportable/unmaintainable.

Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:31:38 PM EDT
[#9]

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Quoted:
You want to fly another F-117 into an area with a SAM system that can apparently down low observable aircraft which you apparently knew nothing about?
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Quoted:



Quoted:


What I don't understand is why that site wasn't immediately hit with JDAM's to destroy the wreckage?  I'm sure the Serbs trucked all of it to either Russia or China as was paid handsomely.

 






You want to fly another F-117 into an area with a SAM system that can apparently down low observable aircraft which you apparently knew nothing about?
At least not with the same flight path.  Cruise missile maybe?  Slick willy loved to lob those around.  He missed OBL with them.



 
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:35:38 PM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:37:26 PM EDT
[#11]
For those who can't read through this threads piss taking and misinformation:

I always thought it was the flights were restricted by international agreements and they had to take the same flight plan at the same time and altitude.  After a while, the compiled all the data and made it much easier how to adjust the radar for those specific conditions.  

Way off or........?
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:48:04 PM EDT
[#12]
I spoke with a few folks down around Whitesands right after this occurred.  They hinted that the pilot of the F117 that was shot down was actually a German pilot doing some secret squirrel multi-national cross-training stuff.  Anybody else heard that rumor?
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:53:02 PM EDT
[#13]

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Quoted:


I spoke with a few folks down around Whitesands right after this occurred.  They hinted that the pilot of the F117 that was shot down was actually a German pilot doing some secret squirrel multi-national cross-training stuff.  Anybody else heard that rumor?
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I think the Brits are the only partners we have in the F35 program who's getting access to everything.  I don't think we allowed anyone else to even sniff your stealth stuff.



 
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 7:56:24 PM EDT
[#14]
I believe the bomb bay being open too long played a factor in the shoot down. That greatly increases the radar cross section and negates the "stealth". It has been many years since I looked up the reported action.   The SA-3 can acquire and engage targets very quickly especially when the aircraft route is known. It's not bad for a SAM that first showed up in 1957.


Link Posted: 12/7/2013 8:03:56 PM EDT
[#15]
Radar triangulation, how does that work?  Oh yeah, with the downing of an F-117.  Simple use of old radar technology defeated stealth technology.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 8:04:21 PM EDT
[#16]
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 8:04:29 PM EDT
[#17]
Anybody who wants to try replicating that shootdown should try their hand at this:

https://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/

And good luck, because I have never once been able to find the F-117.
Link Posted: 12/7/2013 8:13:08 PM EDT
[#18]
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Quoted:
You can't expect to fly through a wall of lead and not get hit.


 
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Quoted:
I don't care about excuses, that was one embarrassing fuckup. Stealth my ass.
You can't expect to fly through a wall of lead and not get hit.


 

It was not just luck, there is a damn good story regarding this...going to read the rest of the thread and maybe post later
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 1:09:24 AM EDT
[#19]

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Quoted:


SAMs were not actually very effective in Vietnam,they just threw  10,000 of the things in the air.



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well, that's true if you measure effectiveness in terms of hit percentage.




but i imagine that if you define effectiveness in terms of economics, war material, and personnel, the assessment would be rather different.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 1:17:14 AM EDT
[#20]
Don't mess with the Zoltan.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 1:49:32 AM EDT
[#21]


Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

There's a brief analysis of the shootdown in "NATO's Air War for Kosovo: A Strategic and Operational Assessment" beginning on page 116 (Page 16 of this Chapter 6 PDF). Can't copy-paste due to formatting issues. That's a great read for anyone interested in the conflict in general. I've seen a better analysis of the shootdown but I can't remember the title.



It's surprising that an SA-3 is responsible, since they were the least survivable of Serbia's air defense assets.

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Tag
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 2:19:57 AM EDT
[#22]
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As I understand it, the stealth abilities of the aircraft didn't fail.


The bomb bay doors did. They stuck open and allowed more of a radar lock from a SAM.




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No it did not, you mixed up your facts.  That happened in Desert Storm, when the door fail to close.  Pilot invert the airplane, and the bomb door closed.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 2:26:19 AM EDT
[#23]
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Quoted:

You want to fly another F-117 into an area with a SAM system that can apparently down low observable aircraft which you apparently knew nothing about?

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Quoted:
Quoted:
What I don't understand is why that site wasn't immediately hit with JDAM's to destroy the wreckage?  I'm sure the Serbs trucked all of it to either Russia or China as was paid handsomely.
 

You want to fly another F-117 into an area with a SAM system that can apparently down low observable aircraft which you apparently knew nothing about?


Not really, strike package was on their way, but was recalled by high command, something about civilian around the wreckage.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 2:34:05 AM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:
they flew the same route every night for four nights straight so really it wasn't luck... just point up and shoot. It was all in the after action report.
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It was a fuck-up of complacency, similar in to what got out helicopter shot down in Somalia.

Sadly, such complacency is engrained in our culture.

Link Posted: 12/8/2013 2:47:27 AM EDT
[#25]
pretty cool.....the pilot and the sam site operator are best of friends.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20209770
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 5:16:19 AM EDT
[#26]
well teener, im glad your not willing to accept any excuses because im sure your incredibly well informed .




Link Posted: 12/8/2013 5:20:19 AM EDT
[#27]

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Quoted:
its a bit more complicated than that; the Serbs employed the SAMs in a non-standard way and it was not really a "wall of lead"
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Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:

It was hit by a SAM




And your point?



stealth:



1) does not equal invisible, just means harder to detect

2) enough SAMs in the air and they can get lucky

3) the closer you are, the less stealthy you are.

4) sometimes shit happens.






its a bit more complicated than that; the Serbs employed the SAMs in a non-standard way and it was not really a "wall of lead"


Then theres the whole, it was already nearly a 25 year old aircraft by that point.



 
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 5:53:45 AM EDT
[#28]


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Quoted:
And your point?



stealth:



1) does not equal invisible, just means harder to detect

2) enough SAMs in the air and they can get lucky

3) the closer you are, the less stealthy you are.

4) sometimes shit happens.
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Quoted:



Quoted:

It was hit by a SAM




And your point?



stealth:



1) does not equal invisible, just means harder to detect

2) enough SAMs in the air and they can get lucky

3) the closer you are, the less stealthy you are.

4) sometimes shit happens.
Numba fo.

Link Posted: 12/8/2013 5:54:11 AM EDT
[#29]


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Quoted:
A TLAM would have worked.
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Quoted:





Quoted:




Quoted:




What I don't understand is why that site wasn't immediately hit with JDAM's to destroy the wreckage?  I'm sure the Serbs trucked all of it to either Russia or China as was paid handsomely.


 

You want to fly another F-117 into an area with a SAM system that can apparently down low observable aircraft which you apparently knew nothing about?

A TLAM would have worked.



Not a chance. First of all its very doubtful that we would of had any way to get an exact fix on the wreckage for quite a while. Meanwhile during the immediate aftermath we would of had our own CSAR aircraft operating in the area, or at least a commander would need to assume that we would.





Finally have you ever seen photos of a wreck that's still smoldering in some third world shithole that isnt absolutely crawling with locals... the bad press and propaganda of the -117 alone would of been bad enough, imagine if we topped it off by smoking 25 women and children or whatever nonsense they feel like parading out to the world.





Finally, a SAM crew that's good enough to take down a Nighthawk (*with an Sa-3), you have to assume definitely has the chops to probably also take down an incoming subsonic cruise missile flying directly into a known and predictible location, while the whole country now on alert. Even with a quiet, stealthy and NOE flight path, a TLAM flying at a fixed speed and known direction is a nice target for a command guided SAM.





Im sure it also takes a good couple hours to upload the targeting data terrain features, flight plan,  waypoints etc. into the missile itself on top of all the other delays that would be inevitable just to get the green light.




 
 
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:00:49 AM EDT
[#30]
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Quoted:
Chinese supposedly helped the Serbs track it.

And that's supposedly one of the reasons why the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was hit with JDAMs.
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By accident, due to a mistake or malfunction with the guidance system......

You're going to have to Stick to the story and not go off script if you want it to be believable. .......  ;-)

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:02:16 AM EDT
[#31]

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Quoted:
It was a fuck-up of complacency, similar in to what got out helicopter shot down in Somalia.



Sadly, such complacency is engrained in our culture.



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Quoted:



Quoted:

they flew the same route every night for four nights straight so really it wasn't luck... just point up and shoot. It was all in the after action report.




It was a fuck-up of complacency, similar in to what got out helicopter shot down in Somalia.



Sadly, such complacency is engrained in our culture.





There were no complacency issues whatsoever going on in Somalia. In fact there was a great deal of effort spent starting from the top on down to specifically avoid any such issue.



Somalia, unlike this was much more of a classic example of the golden BB, combined with a healthy dose of getting bent over by mr. Murphy along with the first rule of combat.



 
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:18:27 AM EDT
[#32]
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Quoted:

There were no complacency issues whatsoever going on in Somalia. In fact there was a great deal of effort spent starting from the top on down to specifically avoid any such issue.

Somalia, unlike this was much more of a classic example of the golden BB, combined with a healthy dose of getting bent over by mr. Murphy along with the first rule of combat.
 
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
they flew the same route every night for four nights straight so really it wasn't luck... just point up and shoot. It was all in the after action report.


It was a fuck-up of complacency, similar in to what got out helicopter shot down in Somalia.

Sadly, such complacency is engrained in our culture.


There were no complacency issues whatsoever going on in Somalia. In fact there was a great deal of effort spent starting from the top on down to specifically avoid any such issue.

Somalia, unlike this was much more of a classic example of the golden BB, combined with a healthy dose of getting bent over by mr. Murphy along with the first rule of combat.
 


Suffice it to say, your interpretation and mine... differ.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:20:52 AM EDT
[#33]
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Mitigate is a much better word than negate here.
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Quoted:

It is not so much shit happens, its the enemy figured a way to negate low observation advantage.


Mitigate is a much better word than negate here.


I used negate vs mitigate because they were able to shoot it down.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:24:57 AM EDT
[#34]
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Quoted:
Golden BB. It happens.
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It does.
But that is not why the F117 got shot down.

This is one of those frustrating times I really can't talk about it.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:32:58 AM EDT
[#35]
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Quoted:


It does.
But that is not why the F117 got shot down.

This is one of those frustrating times I really can't talk about it.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Golden BB. It happens.


It does.
But that is not why the F117 got shot down.

This is one of those frustrating times I really can't talk about it.



yep
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 6:38:13 AM EDT
[#36]
Ultimately, the main point should be that by trying to play policeman to the world, we expose our assets and technology to examination and analysis by our enemies. I'm sure we analyze and assess the enemy's equipment as well during these brush-fire conflicts, but simply put, we have more to lose.

With that in mind, it makes me wonder if conflicts such as the former Yugoslavia were not engineered or instigated as a means to draw out our hardware and tech for just such an evaluation.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 9:18:36 AM EDT
[#37]




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Quoted:
Suffice it to say, your interpretation and mine... differ.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:




they flew the same route every night for four nights straight so really it wasn't luck... just point up and shoot. It was all in the after action report.

It was a fuck-up of complacency, similar in to what got out helicopter shot down in Somalia.
Sadly, such complacency is engrained in our culture.





There were no complacency issues whatsoever going on in Somalia. In fact there was a great deal of effort spent starting from the top on down to specifically avoid any such issue.
Somalia, unlike this was much more of a classic example of the golden BB, combined with a healthy dose of getting bent over by mr. Murphy along with the first rule of combat.




 

Suffice it to say, your interpretation and mine... differ.
 Very well. Its not often that your wrong in these instances and I'm playing outside my lane here anyway.
The attached article is well worth the time for anyone interested in learning more of The Battle of Mogadishu and its surrounding events.
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a366316.pdf
SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES




Major Roger N. Sanavic




Title of Monograph: Battle of Mogadishu: Anatomy of a Failure
School of Advanced Military Studies




United States Army Command and General Staff College




Fort Leavenworth, Kansas




(Public, Unlimited Dist.)
 


 
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 10:57:23 AM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:

...
The attached article is well worth the time for anyone interested in learning more of The Battle of Mogadishu and its surrounding events.

http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a366316.pdf

SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
Major Roger N. Sanavic
Title of Monograph: Battle of Mogadishu: Anatomy of a Failure

School of Advanced Military Studies
United States Army Command and General Staff College
Fort Leavenworth, Kansas
(Public, Unlimited Dist.)

   
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I'll take a look.  Most of what I know about Somalia is either from talking with LTG Montgomery (who had nothing to do with TF Ranger's planning), Durant's book, or Bowden's book - and the latter is known to have other issues.  And, as I think about it, my impressions may be most based on the latter.

EDIT:  It references countermeasures taken knowing the increased risk of the daylight raids, but doesn't really explain why so many daylight raids.  What it definitely does is give remind me why I hate Clinton so much.  I needed that.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:05:09 AM EDT
[#39]
The REAL reason it happened is that the ADA crew was wearing comfy Adidas track suits.  Do not overestimate the role that comfort and a full range of motion in the crotch area plays in military effectiveness.

On a mildly related note, it seems like our guys know exactly what it happened.  Good, that means they know how to avoid such an incident next time.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:08:56 AM EDT
[#40]
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I would say literally billions if not tens of billions have been spent to wipe things like that sa300 guarding a syrian nuke reactor off the map.  I would say right now the US has never been more capable of defeating a soviet model based air defense system. sure someone smarter will come along and explain this in more detail.
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In full scale war against a real air defense network, the US military could not do the vast majority of what it does.  Soviet systems are very capable.


I would say literally billions if not tens of billions have been spent to wipe things like that sa300 guarding a syrian nuke reactor off the map.  I would say right now the US has never been more capable of defeating a soviet model based air defense system. sure someone smarter will come along and explain this in more detail.

Someone smarter will not get anywhere near this thread
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:17:42 AM EDT
[#41]
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Quoted:

Someone smarter will not get anywhere near this thread
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
In full scale war against a real air defense network, the US military could not do the vast majority of what it does.  Soviet systems are very capable.


I would say literally billions if not tens of billions have been spent to wipe things like that sa300 guarding a syrian nuke reactor off the map.  I would say right now the US has never been more capable of defeating a soviet model based air defense system. sure someone smarter will come along and explain this in more detail.

Someone smarter will not get anywhere near this thread


By definition.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:20:31 AM EDT
[#42]
I had heard all of the above about limiting illumination times, as well as also having multiple radar networked together, which helps piece together individual returns into a cohesive single aircraft if you are looking at the sky from multiple locations.

I think air defense and stealth is a continual leapfrog game to improve both sides technologically, and if they indeed had a new Russian radar in the region, it wouldn't surprise me.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:25:28 AM EDT
[#43]
I am good friends with the pilot of that F-117 that was shot down. The story of what actually happened and why is, of course, classified. The pilot has done several TV interviews and has even been asked to meet the commander of the of the SAM missile battery that shot him down.

The story of the rescue is incredible. Enemy forces were within 300 feet of him when the helos came in and got him.

Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:28:57 AM EDT
[#44]
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:39:29 AM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Yep that explains the shoot down.

How many receivers were used?

How did the operators at each receiver communicate?

How did the operators coordinate the results of their detections and tracking of the target?

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Radar triangulation, how does that work?  Oh yeah, with the downing of an F-117.  Simple use of old radar technology defeated stealth technology.


Yep that explains the shoot down.

How many receivers were used?

How did the operators at each receiver communicate?

How did the operators coordinate the results of their detections and tracking of the target?




Can't be...

Must be the Snipers that missed Hillary while she was over there hit it accidentally...
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 11:47:05 AM EDT
[#46]
The F117 was not invisible to radar nor is any "stealth aircraft".  They have a much smaller radar signal.  If you fly the same flight path every time anti air assets can be moved to be effective against stealth aircraft.  Tweaking the radar can further help defeat stealth technology.  This has been known for a very long time, the US fucked up by using poor tactics.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 12:02:14 PM EDT
[#47]
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Quoted:


Suffice it to say, your interpretation and mine... differ.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
they flew the same route every night for four nights straight so really it wasn't luck... just point up and shoot. It was all in the after action report.


It was a fuck-up of complacency, similar in to what got out helicopter shot down in Somalia.

Sadly, such complacency is engrained in our culture.


There were no complacency issues whatsoever going on in Somalia. In fact there was a great deal of effort spent starting from the top on down to specifically avoid any such issue.

Somalia, unlike this was much more of a classic example of the golden BB, combined with a healthy dose of getting bent over by mr. Murphy along with the first rule of combat.
 


Suffice it to say, your interpretation and mine... differ.

When I spoke to Mike Durant about this he had a conclusion similar to Bohr.

Not necessarily complacency on the part of the pilots or the Soldiers actually on the ground, but rather with the assumptions used in the planning process.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 2:06:51 PM EDT
[#48]
I seem to remember there was a NATO representative / spy providing flight information which allowed the Serbs to track it as it flew between cell towers.
Link Posted: 12/8/2013 2:08:08 PM EDT
[#49]
1) It shows that a clever AD commander can exceed the limitations of his hardware.

2) Goddamned 13ers.
Link Posted: 12/9/2013 11:56:40 AM EDT
[#50]
A low observable aircraft reflects very little radio frequency energy back toward it's point of origin.  However, one thing it can't do, is allow radio frequencies to pass through it unchanged.  LO technology absorbs or reflects the RF.  So, I wonder what would happen if a LO aircraft flew through a network of radar emitters, and each emplacement in the network split off it's TX and RX, then tuned it's RX section to receive TX from one of the OTHER transmitters on the network, and everyone plotted their continuous returns on one display?  Would you see a spot travelling through the area where RF is being interrupted?  Would you see a moving area where RF is being deflected?  Could you track these deflections to their point of origin?  If you could, and it was moving @ 400kts, you found your target.
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