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Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:48:30 AM EDT
[#1]


Yeah except BCGs. They've been out of stock those for a good five months.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:51:41 AM EDT
[#2]
Quoted:
Now is not the time to buy, now is the time SEEEELLLLLL...... Remember the old axiom, "buy low, sell high?"

I have zero sympathy for many folks, BHO has been in office for nearly how long, ~3 years; and they knew his track record on firearms; and everyone just "sat on their duffs."

And now everyone is screaming bloody murder because no one has parts to complete their beloved firearms, or has ammo, or has complete guns. Making a gun is not that simple, but of course not has complicated as say, building a car. Building fireamrs is pretty much a cottage industry. I bet that some hi-tech entrepreneurial billionaires can buy up all of the gun makers and close it down without even breaking a sweat.

Now with the prices of guns and ammo etc at a peak, it is time to stop buying, and go to the range to get a little shooting done.

BTW: this mentality is what gets the gunners in trouble with anti-gun firearms legislation, the gunners just seem to go go sleep in between lulls, and all of a sudden wake up to find the world a bit different when they fell asleep.


Prices haven't gotten nearly high enough to sell yet. Shit is still pretty low. Most quality ARs can still be had from 750 - 999.

Last time cheapo depot shit like Olympic got up to 1500. I think I'll wait before I sell.

What I don't get is in the last few years, ARs have been falling, with more and more being of better quality and the same old WASR rifles are getting more expensive. I haven't seen one for less than 550 in a year, most are 750 or higher. And good luck if you want a yugo, those are 900. Has no one told AK importers that they import. . .AKs?
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:53:03 AM EDT
[#3]
Quoted:
I never understood this about the firearm industry.

This shit happens EVERY year, and EVEN MORE on election year; and has been happening for the past 5-10 years.

SHOT show comes up at the beginning of the year, election years come up; WHY DOES NO ONE RAMP UP PRODUCTION?

Are firearm manufacturers and foundry's ALWAYS at 100%? Can they not produce more? Do companies NOT want to sell products?

You would think when October of the preceding year comes around, companies would go "OH SHIT ITS ELECTION YEAR/SHOT SHOW I SHOULD ORDER MORE"


They don't ramp up production, because if they're wrong they end up with a huge stock they can't move and subcontractors looking to be paid.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:56:42 AM EDT
[#4]
Prolly a lot of folks in Florida and a few otther places stocking up due to the likelihood of shenanigans breaking out. This, plus the usual election year tardage, might keep the parts pantry pretty bare for a while.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:57:25 AM EDT
[#5]
LAR Grizzly's upper receivers and bolts are 10-12 week wait

I was fortunate to find a decent used side-charger here on the EE
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:58:21 AM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Actually BCM has barreled uppers and BCGs in stock! Things aren't to bad yet but it is heading that way.


They also have lower parts kits in stock too.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:59:10 AM EDT
[#7]
Just completed a lower build for my wife.  Ordered everything from AIM.  Most was out of stock, but I signed up for their email notifications and bought immediately when things came in.  Took a while to get everything but I was in no hurry and they have excellent prices.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 8:59:33 AM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 9:00:09 AM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:


Yeah except BCGs. They've been out of stock those for a good five months.


I got time.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 9:06:46 AM EDT
[#10]
Quoted:
Now is not the time to buy, now is the time SEEEELLLLLL...... Remember the old axiom, "buy low, sell high?"

I have zero sympathy for many folks, BHO has been in office for nearly how long, ~3 years; and they knew his track record on firearms; and everyone just "sat on their duffs."


I agree, but I'd say wait until August or September to sell.  Panic buying will be in full frenzy at that time.  I don't think anyone is thinking about the election in May.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 11:26:51 AM EDT
[#11]
The supply problem is complicated by the customization you all want when ordering parts.

If there were only one configuration available, sellers could stock plenty of it with the confidence that it would sit collecting dust while other versions sold.

For example, I once went to a brick-and-mortar place (that does very well) and asked if they had any stripped lowers. They didn't have any.

The reason they gave? "Everyone wants a different brand."
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 11:36:19 AM EDT
[#12]


You might check PSAs industry forum. Their uppers seems to be plagued with issues. Just sayin do a little research
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 12:04:45 PM EDT
[#13]
I'm pleased to report that I am contributing to the problem.
I have helped 4 guys complete builds since February.  I currently have 9 more in the works for 5 more guys.
I have heard DIRECTLY in phone conversations from vendors that parts are getting hard to come by. As it stands, the biggest delay has been barrels from White Oak and they are worth the wait.  So far, all the parts I have ordered have been available.  You just have to search for a vendor with some stock.
Anecdotal observation:  These guys doing all these builds are just your average gun owner - a couple bolt guns, a couple shotguns and maybe a pistol.  They want a AR15 before you can't get them.
 
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 1:21:01 PM EDT
[#14]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Now is not the time to buy, now is the time SEEEELLLLLL...... Remember the old axiom, "buy low, sell high?"

I have zero sympathy for many folks, BHO has been in office for nearly how long, ~3 years; and they knew his track record on firearms; and everyone just "sat on their duffs."


I agree, but I'd say wait until August or September to sell.  Panic buying will be in full frenzy at that time.  I don't think anyone is thinking about the election in May.
Would you guys believe that I got some IMI 55g .224" FMJs for $220/4000 10 years ago, and IMI .308" 150g FMJs for $240/3000, shipped. from Widener's?

I've only got a few hundred left, but those were the days.

Yep, time to sell some stuff, or just sit back and go to the range for some "fun & games."
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 1:27:53 PM EDT
[#15]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Now is not the time to buy, now is the time SEEEELLLLLL...... Remember the old axiom, "buy low, sell high?"

I have zero sympathy for many folks, BHO has been in office for nearly how long, ~3 years; and they knew his track record on firearms; and everyone just "sat on their duffs."

And now everyone is screaming bloody murder because no one has parts to complete their beloved firearms, or has ammo, or has complete guns. Making a gun is not that simple, but of course not has complicated as say, building a car. Building fireamrs is pretty much a cottage industry. I bet that some hi-tech entrepreneurial billionaires can buy up all of the gun makers and close it down without even breaking a sweat.

Now with the prices of guns and ammo etc at a peak, it is time to stop buying, and go to the range to get a little shooting done.

BTW: this mentality is what gets the gunners in trouble with anti-gun firearms legislation, the gunners just seem to go go sleep in between lulls, and all of a sudden wake up to find the world a bit different when they fell asleep.


Prices haven't gotten nearly high enough to sell yet. Shit is still pretty low. Most quality ARs can still be had from 750 - 999.

Last time cheapo depot shit like Olympic got up to 1500. I think I'll wait before I sell.

What I don't get is in the last few years, ARs have been falling, with more and more being of better quality and the same old WASR rifles are getting more expensive. I haven't seen one for less than 550 in a year, most are 750 or higher. And good luck if you want a yugo, those are 900. Has no one told AK importers that they import. . .AKs?
Probably just the vulgarities of the market place, nothing to be alarmed about personally.

But you know what? What really surprised me in the past few years is the prices of old shooter M1 Garands, yeah shooter M1 Garands, I used to get them for ~$300 day in day out. I've seen typical selling prices like ~$400-$500 range even with the rattly handguards etc.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 1:30:46 PM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:

Anecdotal observation:  These guys doing all these builds are just your average gun owner - a couple bolt guns, a couple shotguns and maybe a pistol.  They want a AR15 before you can't get them.
 


Curious, but where has "your average gun owner" been for the last three years?  Didn't they see the panic that happened in 2008 and say to themselves "boy I think I'd better get an AR15 before the next election"?  I'm merely puzzled as to how the average gun owner hasn't thought about getting an AR15 "before you can't get them" after the high-visibility shortages of the 2008 election.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 1:40:33 PM EDT
[#17]
Top Gun Supply still has lots of goodies in stock.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 1:58:57 PM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
Top Gun Supply still has lots of goodies in stock.


I just went there looking for complete uppers. They offer seven different complete upper assemblies and only have two of those in stock. Bolt carrier groups are out of stock too. They seem to be in decent shape on other items like pistol grips and stocks.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:01:11 PM EDT
[#19]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Top Gun Supply still has lots of goodies in stock.


I just went there looking for complete uppers. They offer seven different complete upper assemblies and only have two of those in stock. Bolt carrier groups are out of stock too. They seem to be in decent shape on other items like pistol grips and stocks.


Just buy a Colt 6920. In stock, and $1,149.95. What more do you need?
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:03:08 PM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
This could be worse than Y2k!8


FIFY
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:04:43 PM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Top Gun Supply still has lots of goodies in stock.


I just went there looking for complete uppers. They offer seven different complete upper assemblies and only have two of those in stock. Bolt carrier groups are out of stock too. They seem to be in decent shape on other items like pistol grips and stocks.


Just buy a Colt 6920. In stock, and $1,149.95. What more do you need?


I have SBR fever. This requires lots of new uppers and barrels.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:05:50 PM EDT
[#22]
Meh.  I have a couple of ARs and enough parts to at least build another one.  Buy away, panic buyers.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:08:51 PM EDT
[#23]
I was GT Distributers in Austin at Lunch. They had more AR shit than I have ever seen in one place.
Parts all over the place, Pmags, assembled SBRs
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:14:00 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:

I have SBR fever. This requires lots of new uppers and barrels.


Examples –– just from one site sponsor I typically patronize:

Noveske uppers at Rainier

LMT uppers at Rainier

I dont know what brands you want but there appears to be no shortage.

Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:17:25 PM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
Quoted:

I have SBR fever. This requires lots of new uppers and barrels.


Examples –– just from one site sponsor I typically patronize:

Noveske uppers at Rainier

LMT uppers at Rainier

I dont know what brands you want but there appears to be no shortage.



See where it says "Notify me please" in yellow? That means they are out of stock on that item. Like I said in my OP:

Rainer Arms is "out of stock" on more than half of their complete upper models



If you know a reputable place where I can buy one of these, I'd love that info. Thanks!
Upper: Noveske 5.56MM Light Shorty - 10.5" Switchblock


Link Posted: 5/9/2012 2:39:39 PM EDT
[#26]
Quoted:


You might check PSAs industry forum. Their uppers seems to be plagued with issues. Just sayin do a little research


Thanks for the heads up.

I am going to keep my order, and if it is messed up, I am going to return it for fixing. Have not had any PSA problems yet.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 3:19:02 PM EDT
[#27]
Brownells and MidwayUSA are hurting for parts, even Model1 is back ordered!!
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 3:21:09 PM EDT
[#28]
The shortage might not be only due to the upcoming election. People are preparing for large civil unrest.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 3:43:49 PM EDT
[#29]


See where it says "Notify me please" in yellow? That means they are out of stock on that item. Like I said in my OP:

Rainer Arms is "out of stock" on more than half of their complete upper models



If you know a reputable place where I can buy one of these, I'd love that info. Thanks!
Upper: Noveske 5.56MM Light Shorty - 10.5" Switchblock

http://www.rainierarms.com/img/shop/product/831b2e084fcb770c0b0f5bc2379635e7.jpg


Finally –– it's like following a car that refuses to use its turn signals.  Now that you've revealed to us which upper you actually want, I guess that specific Noveske upper is hard to find.  Then again Noveske has always been in short supply, even in good times so I still think you are wrong.  This is not the worst it's ever been –– go back to 2008 and you couldn't find anything in stock.  These days you can find plenty of uppers in stock –– just not the one you want.




Link Posted: 5/9/2012 3:45:15 PM EDT
[#30]
2008 was a lot worse.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 4:01:38 PM EDT
[#31]
Quoted:
2008 was a lot worse.


Yes it was.

The big thing is that we are not even into the summer and supply seems to be slowing.

I am going to bet that by August, it will be near impossible to find anything.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 4:04:09 PM EDT
[#32]
Quoted:


See where it says "Notify me please" in yellow? That means they are out of stock on that item. Like I said in my OP:

Rainer Arms is "out of stock" on more than half of their complete upper models



If you know a reputable place where I can buy one of these, I'd love that info. Thanks!
Upper: Noveske 5.56MM Light Shorty - 10.5" Switchblock

http://www.rainierarms.com/img/shop/product/831b2e084fcb770c0b0f5bc2379635e7.jpg


Finally –– it's like following a car that refuses to use its turn signals.  Now that you've revealed to us which upper you actually want, I guess that specific Noveske upper is hard to find.  Then again Noveske has always been in short supply, even in good times so I still think you are wrong.  This is not the worst it's ever been –– go back to 2008 and you couldn't find anything in stock.  These days you can find plenty of uppers in stock –– just not the one you want.








Ok...you win.
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 4:14:20 PM EDT
[#33]
...
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 4:36:40 PM EDT
[#34]
Peak ARs...
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 4:46:48 PM EDT
[#35]
Here you go!

http://www.lokiweaponsystems.com/

You are welcome!
Link Posted: 5/9/2012 4:59:34 PM EDT
[#36]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
In y'alls experience is this problem unique to the firearms/ shooting industry, or do you know of any other industries that are chronically backordered?


I only noticed this because I have been looking at buying a complete upper assembly for about 5 months and have been checking sites trying to decide which complete upper I wanted to buy. Over the past 5 months I have noticed the "out of stock" situation rapidly change for the worse. Today I decided that I needed to make a choice on the upper assembly I wanted and order it today before I had to wait months to get one. I am glad I did because after I placed my order and completed it, the unit I ordered showed "out of stock". I must have gotten the last one.


Which upper did you buy?


BCM w/ DD hand guard.



I've been watching BCM upper assemblies for at least 2 years and I too have noticed they're constantly OOS. Especially the SOCOMs.
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:29:29 AM EDT
[#37]
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:37:14 AM EDT
[#38]
Quoted:

If anyone has any questions about what the chart means, or about what CTD is doing differently now than in 2008 (I know some still won't forgive anyway), you can IM me either as Duke or as CheaperThanDirt. Or just post here.




This time it looks like everyone is jacking their prices up. Maybe not as much as CTD but gouging is gouging right! My issue with CTD happened long before 2008. Your freight charges are a complete rip off you guys should be ashamed really.
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:40:34 AM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:
Looks like I'm late to the party, am I in before the "Fearmongering To Drive Sales" crowd? Guess I'll repost this, I was off the clock and posting as -Duke-Nukem- when I made it so I guess it flew under the radar. I posted it exactly a month ago, in this thread: http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1311691_I_hate_this_ammo_situation.html&page=3


Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
Quoted:
I've been investing in reloading equipment and supplies like there is no tomorrow. Considering where I work, you guys should take that as a big hint of what's going on.


Whats going on?

Hes trying to help feed the panic.

That is all.

No, I'm really not. I've been considering making a post in GD from work (as Cheaperthandirt) about the "state of the industry" and how sales figures right now are demolishing 2008/2009 levels. Sort of a way to say "hey, sorry we f&*ked up in 2008, this time we are going to be honest and up front and tell arfcom what's happening", and I've even been given permission to show some of our charts and analytics to back up what I would say. But considering how much arfcom loves to hate CTD and the general "shoot the messenger" attitude here, I think I'm going to just let the chips fall where they may. I will just say this–– CTD does not have the cheapest ammo out there right now, and we are still selling ten pallets a day with no more to show up until late September when its all gone. Every day more SKU item numbers turn yellow, out of stock. We're screaming at distributors, they are screaming at manufacturers, and manufacturers are running 3 shifts and throwing their hands up saying "what the f&*k else do you want us to do?" The sales numbers since November 2011 destroy the highest levels of 2009, by a huge margin.

As for myself, I'm spending every last spare dime on reloading supplies. I'm not buying guns, scopes, lenses for my camera, a new head unit for my car, or a bunch of other stuff I would normally go out and do. I want the ability to shoot for the next couple of years no matter what. If I was saying this to scare people I wouldn't be emptying my own wallet to buy this stuff.

Maybe arfcom is right and I've been suckered by what I'm seeing at my own little company. Maybe I'm an idiot and reloading supplies will actually go down in value in the next 4 years. Time will tell. For now, here's CTD's page of all .223 ammo we carry. Its sorted by price per round, cheapest ammo up top. Look at the prices. Look at the availability. Remember if an item has been out of stock for over 90 days it falls off the website entirely, so all those out of stock items have sold out just since January 2012.

http://www.cheaperthandirt.com/ItemListing.aspx?pagesize=1000&sort=priceperround&catid=110

But you don't have to listen to me, I work for An Evil Corporation Out To Make A Profit. Time will tell who is right. If I'm wrong, meh, I won't mind too much that I wasted a bunch of money on reloading equipment during the phony scare of 2012.

EDIT: My boss's boss at CTD let me show this graph in another thread. I had to redact the actual numbers, but its a chart of web traffic to our e-commerce site comparing 2008/2009 with 2011/2012. I put the indicator on Nov. 2, the date of the 2008 election. I figure they won't mind if I share it in this thread as well.

http://cheaperthandirt.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Visits-2008-vs-2012.jpg






Click on this link to view the chart in full size.

http://cheaperthandirt.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Visits-2008-vs-2012.jpg


If anyone has any questions about what the chart means, or about what CTD is doing differently now than in 2008 (I know some still won't forgive anyway), you can IM me either as Duke or as CheaperThanDirt. Or just post here.












Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:42:47 AM EDT
[#41]

Quoted:
In 2008, many AR15 manufacturers ramped up production to
meet election demands (Daniel Defense for example).  In the ensuing
panic buy, they were still unable to meet demand.  



Then the buying slowed down and these manufacturers (who beefed up production) were left without a chair when the music stopped.



There
were several manufacturers who had to close up shop, one or two were on
the cusp of bankruptcy, and another laid off a majority of their
workforce.





By the time the machines are in place and working,
by the time production catches up with demand, the buying spree is
nearly over.  



It is poor business sense to make huge capital purchases (machines) to meet a short term bump in production need.


yep,





Early 2010 had my RRA and others calling us begging to take stuff and running sales





its slow and expensive to ramp up and demand can very easily evaporate  





 
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:43:52 AM EDT
[#42]


They gave an explaination for this, and it has to be with margins in cost of equipment to meet demand, and then having said equipment idle when things slow down.

Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:49:44 AM EDT
[#43]
Quoted:
If anyone has any questions about what the chart means, or about what CTD is doing differently now than in 2008 (I know some still won't forgive anyway), you can IM me either as Duke or as CheaperThanDirt. Or just post here.


I'm alone on this, but I was never upset about what CTD did in 2008. And I'll tell you why - while prices were high, a lot of stuff was IN STOCK. When something is in incredibly high demand, and you want it right now (with no wait), you have to be willing to pay a premium for that.

Some people want/need something right now, and will pay for it. Others are willing to wait in line, to get it at "normal" prices. Others still, are more than willing to wait for email alerts, and immediately jump before the item goes out of sock in the next hour or two (BTW, when this happens, it's proof that the item is priced too low).

I actually defended CTD, but I've come to realize that no matter how economically rational something is, there's something to be said for the emotions of your customers. The majority hated what you did, and held a grudge. Gun owners confuse the shit out of me sometimes.

People kept saying "PRICE GOUGING!!!", to which I would always reply "Okay, so who has it in stock, right now, for pre-panic prices?". Crickets. Price controls (even if self-administered) in light of skyrocketing demand, always lead to shortages.
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:53:20 AM EDT
[#44]
Quoted:


They gave an explaination for this, and it has to be with margins in cost of equipment to meet demand, and then having said equipment idle when things slow down.



Yep.  That's why I posted a link to that thread, in this thread.
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 8:57:26 AM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
Quoted:
2008 was a lot worse.


Yes it was.

The big thing is that we are not even into the summer and supply seems to be slowing.

I am going to bet that by August, it will be near impossible to find anything.


agreed. 2008 was worse in novemeber/december not in May. It could be very ugly this fall.
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 9:01:01 AM EDT
[#46]
Quoted:
Seems like BCM has been out of stock the past 3 years.   And it looks like Noveske is all anyone is buying anymore, they seem to be on top of the More Tactical Than Thou pile at the moment.


I quit looking at BCM because they never had anything in stock...
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 9:05:44 AM EDT
[#47]



Quoted:



It is poor business sense to make huge capital purchases (machines) to meet a short term bump in production need.


And it's poor consumer sense to wait till the last minute to buy what you need.

Especially when this situation comes as no surprise.





 
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 9:11:21 AM EDT
[#48]
<–– Looks at parts pile I stacked up/stocked up on early 2007. ('m good).  
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 9:14:00 AM EDT
[#49]
Since when has Bravo company had anything in stock?
Link Posted: 5/11/2012 9:14:37 AM EDT
[#50]
Fuck the uppers theyll come back. Now lowers I got so no biggie!

ETA: ALL LOWERS SUNK IN LOCAL LAKE DUE TO HORRIFIC JET SKIING ACCIDENT !!!!
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