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Link Posted: 1/6/2022 5:17:15 PM EDT
[#1]
Stoner 63A
Link Posted: 1/7/2022 10:29:14 PM EDT
[#2]
Originally Posted By TheStupid:
Good evening, everyone. I have been thinking about buying a machine gun probably for less than $50k. Besides adding a fun toy, my main goals are diversification and protection against inflation.

Would an MP5 be the best? I have lots ARs. Getting a registered receiver would be another idea. Or is a real M16 be better?

I would really appreciate your inputs.
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Been a long time since MGs outperformed S&P 500.

When it comes to MG appreciation, I have had the best results with low cost guns. These include Vector Uzi at $2200 or so, M11/9 at $2000, and MAC10 at around $1500. All of these way outperformed my M16 and MP5 guns.

As tony_k has pointed out, I was literally PAID $1000 a year to shoot my Vector Uzi. Meaning after adding up purchase price, accessories, ammo, and subtracting that from sale price, I was left with over $1000 per year I owned it.
Link Posted: 1/7/2022 10:40:26 PM EDT
[#3]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SLAPPYROOTZ:


Well, because in this case, “have” and “own” are two completely differently things. Some would rather own one than borrow any number of them.

In SOT land, “have” is renting unless you buy Pre May keepers, which are now similarly priced to transferables, anyway. Yes, with a SOT, you have access to newer, nicer stuff in the immediate but in the end, none of it is really yours.
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Renting? "none of it is really yours", Huh?

You own it and can sell it when you give up your FFL/SOT. Post samples are going for ridiculous prices right now.

My pre-samples and Post samples are appreciating faster than my transferables are.
Link Posted: 1/9/2022 7:06:16 PM EDT
[#4]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RenegadeX:


Renting? "none of it is really yours", Huh?

You own it and can sell it when you give up your FFL/SOT. Post samples are going for ridiculous prices right now.

My pre-samples and Post samples are appreciating faster than my transferables are.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RenegadeX:
Originally Posted By SLAPPYROOTZ:


Well, because in this case, “have” and “own” are two completely differently things. Some would rather own one than borrow any number of them.

In SOT land, “have” is renting unless you buy Pre May keepers, which are now similarly priced to transferables, anyway. Yes, with a SOT, you have access to newer, nicer stuff in the immediate but in the end, none of it is really yours.


Renting? "none of it is really yours", Huh?

You own it and can sell it when you give up your FFL/SOT. Post samples are going for ridiculous prices right now.

My pre-samples and Post samples are appreciating faster than my transferables are.


I don’t doubt that they appreciating. Someone who has a SOT only has possession of the posties for as long as the SOT is held. To me, that’s like renting. You pay the yearly SOT fees to have access to posties. Don’t pay all the fees, don’t do any business, they take away your ability to own the firearms. To me, that isn’t ownership in the traditional sense.

Link Posted: 1/9/2022 7:24:57 PM EDT
[#5]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SLAPPYROOTZ:


I don’t doubt that they appreciating..

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Appreciation is literally the title of this thread.
Link Posted: 1/9/2022 10:54:26 PM EDT
[#6]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RenegadeX:


Appreciation is literally the title of this thread.
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RenegadeX:
Originally Posted By SLAPPYROOTZ:

I don’t doubt that they appreciating..



Appreciation is literally the title of this thread.


Yes, it literally is the tile, but that wasn’t the point I was making in my reply. You said “huh” so I was explaining what I meant.

I never made any mention the posties don’t appreciate. Of course they do.
Link Posted: 1/9/2022 11:01:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RenegadeX] [#7]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By SLAPPYROOTZ:


Yes, it literally is the tile, but that wasn’t the point I was making in my reply. You said “huh” so I was explaining what I meant.

I never made any mention the posties don’t appreciate. Of course they do.
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you should have just posted a pic of the rabbit with the pancake on its head. eta- In fairness, you were not the one who took the thread off track.....

So back on track, all MGs do appreciate, some more than others, and FFL/SOT route allows you to own some you would otherwise not have.
Link Posted: 1/10/2022 1:17:36 PM EDT
[#8]
Out of curiosity are all post samples appreciating in value as I am not really in tune with that marketplace.

Clearly rare, desirable, or difficult to get from the OEM (even as an SOT) are appreciating.

Guns like the HK MP7, factory Glock 18, or FN M249s where they are rare even for SOTs, are in high demand, and in some cases the OEM (like HK) won't sell an FFL/SOT a new post sample directly anymore even if they hold a LE demo letter.

There are also the "no law letter" post samples that are all going up in value due to that unique transfer aspect where they can go to another 07 or 08 without a demo letter.  So 07s who have no actual in house fabrication skills or 08s who can't legally manufacture can get post samples into their inventory to play with.  That value appreciation is more about the circumstance of the transfer than the actual inherent value of the gun, although I know its now becoming a FFL/SOT business model to constantly "go out of business" and divest a pile of new post samples with no law letter.

However, it seems odd to me that your run of the mill post sample, like an M16, AK47, or Glock conversion back plate would command any premium or appreciation under normal LE demo letter transfer requirements.   If you are an 07 with even the minimal of skillset you can make your own in an afternoon so why pay a big premium and get a LE demo letter for one.   If you are an 01 holding a valid demo letter I would think there are no shortage of 07s out there to sell you a new M16 they can make on demand in unlimited quantities.

Maybe I am missing something though that would drive pricing appreciation on run of the mill post sample that were not a going out of business transfer elligible.
Link Posted: 1/10/2022 1:40:36 PM EDT
[Last Edit: RenegadeX] [#9]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By jbntex:
Out of curiosity are all post samples appreciating in value as I am not really in tune with that marketplace.  

Clearly rare, desirable, or difficult to get from the OEM (even as an SOT) are appreciating.  

Guns like the HK MP7, factory Glock 18, or FN M249s where they are rare even for SOTs, are in high demand, and in some cases the OEM (like HK) won't sell an FFL/SOT a new post sample directly anymore even if they hold a LE demo letter.

There are also the "no law letter" post samples that are all going up in value due to that unique transfer aspect where they can go to another 07 or 08 without a demo letter.  So 07s who have no actual in house fabrication skills or 08s who can't legally manufacture can get post samples into their inventory to play with.  That value appreciation is more about the circumstance of the transfer than the actual inherent value of the gun, although I know its now becoming a FFL/SOT business model to constantly "go out of business" and divest a pile of new post samples with no law letter.

However, it seems odd to me that your run of the mill post sample, like an M16, AK47, or Glock conversion back plate would command any premium or appreciation under normal LE demo letter transfer requirements.   If you are an 07 with even the minimal of skillset you can make your own in an afternoon so why pay a big premium and get a LE demo letter for one.   If you are an 01 holding a valid demo letter I would think there are no shortage of 07s out there to sell you a new M16 they can make on demand in unlimited quantities.

Maybe I am missing something though that would drive pricing appreciation on run of the mill post sample that were not a going out of business transfer elligible.

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No not all appreciating same.

Pre-samples and newer (thus post samples) command the most.  Basic m16, Dias, etc are going nowhere.

Got my 18C for $995, it goes for $7500 on GB. More per-sample MP5 was $6500, now maybe $17k. Yet my diy m16 ($50 + $50 engrave) is still worth $100 or so.

The real money is 07/02 making 240, 249, m60, etc and the giving up sot and selling. Lots of folks with 07 cannot buy or make them or get demo but have plenty of cash to buy them.

Regardless, nothing is outrunning the stock market right now, but you can’t shoot your stocks or bitcoin for that matter.
Link Posted: 1/10/2022 3:21:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: jbntex] [#10]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By RenegadeX:


No not all appreciating same.

Pre-samples and newer (thus post samples) command the most.  Basic m16, Dias, etc are going nowhere.

Got my 18C for $995, it goes for $7500 on GB. More per-sample MP5 was $6500, now maybe $17k. Yet my diy m16 ($50 + $50 engrave) is still worth $100 or so.

The real money is 07/02 making 240, 249, m60, etc and the giving up sot and selling. Lots of folks with 07 cannot buy or make them or get demo but have plenty of cash to buy them.

Regardless, nothing is outrunning the stock market right now, but you can’t shoot your stocks or bitcoin for that matter.
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Thanks for the confirmation.  

That would make sense in that you need to "invest" (I hate to use that word here) in specific desirable foreign pre/post samples or difficult to build domestic production no law letter guns vs. say throw a rock at the ocean and hit water in historical pricing appreciation with transferables.

It will be interesting to see what happens long term with the business to go out of business model.   Seems more often than not whenever folks find a regulatory "angle" and then exploit it commercially at scale there is an eventual  clampdown and backlash by the ATF.

Hopefully if/when that day ever comes it doesn't end up with a new requirement for 07/02s to get a law letter before they can build a post sample at all.
Link Posted: 1/13/2022 12:33:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Homeinvader] [#11]
From the adage of buy low and sell high, there is very little investment potential in MGs any more, those days  are long gone. Outside of historically important or factory models, prices are too high to look at this as investment. If you didn’t get in during the mid-1990s “awakening”, you really don’t have much to work with.

Facing facts, there are very few people who can afford to pay $40,000 for an MP5 conversion today, what used to be $3000 in the early 1990s, and that should be included in any evaluation of investment potential. The true investment will be at the low end. MAC-10s, other formerly low-end, but factory, MGs, these are more affordable and hence will be more in demand to a much larger market.

Don’t buy M16s or HK conversions thinking you’re going to make money on resale, you really wont.  The action will be at the low end.

In terms of stock market, the casual investor will not be making any money buying Apple or Google stock at $250+ per share unless they have the funds for big volume to capture profit on small price increases. Casual inventors will be looking for lower-end stocks with more growth potential. The MAC-10 approach.

ETA: Basically, if you were a Machine Gun News guy you did ok. But if all you know is Small Arms Review, then you were either too late to the game or you were blessed with lots of disposable income.
Link Posted: 1/13/2022 4:32:27 PM EDT
[#12]
The one you keep the longest.
Link Posted: 2/18/2022 1:12:33 PM EDT
[#13]
The prices on HK Sears really blows me away.  Sold one a few weeks ago for $44,239.69 on commission.  The guy purchased it in 1987 for less than $1,000 including the HK94 host gun.

Now in our business vault, we have 60+ MG's (all post-86) and the belt-feds (Factory F/A M249 SAW PARA, 240B, M2HB, M60E3, RPD, FN30, M1919, SG-43 Goryunov) are the ones that see the highest price increases per year.  Also, our authentic factory F/A H&K's are the next best thing in our vault.  Just 5 years ago you could purchase factory F/A MP5's with a Law Letter anytime you wanted for $1,500.00 and now you never see them near that price.
Link Posted: 2/25/2022 11:21:59 PM EDT
[#14]
Thanks for all the interesting convo guys!
Link Posted: 3/31/2022 1:09:57 PM EDT
[#15]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Originally Posted By TreddBarton:
The prices on HK Sears really blows me away.  Sold one a few weeks ago for $44,239.69 on commission.  The guy purchased it in 1987 for less than $1,000 including the HK94 host gun.

Now in our business vault, we have 60+ MG's (all post-86) and the belt-feds (Factory F/A M249 SAW PARA, 240B, M2HB, M60E3, RPD, FN30, M1919, SG-43 Goryunov) are the ones that see the highest price increases per year.  Also, our authentic factory F/A H&K's are the next best thing in our vault.  Just 5 years ago you could purchase factory F/A MP5's with a Law Letter anytime you wanted for $1,500.00 and now you never see them near that price.
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Yeah but back then I think Germany had less restrictions as they do now. Even now just the trigger packs are hard to get.
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