Good evening, everyone. I have been thinking about buying a machine gun probably for less than $50k. Besides adding a fun toy, my main goals are diversification and protection against inflation.

Would an MP5 be the best? I have lots ARs. Getting a registered receiver would be another idea. Or is a real M16 be better?

I would really appreciate your inputs.

RR or M16 would be my choice , you can use uppers you have now on it as well as change calibers when ever you want , I enjoy mine in 9mm and 22 suppressed  but the 10.5 " 556 is a blast to shoot also .

"Registration Receiver" is an incorrect and odd turn of phrase - is American English not your native language, or do you let autocorrect/autocomplete do most of your posting without reviewing it before you hit "Submit"?


That having been stated/asked, you will get the greatest percentage return on something like an M10/M11, but have the greatest versatility with something like an AR-15 RR or factory M16. RDIAS are nice and very versatile, but already well appreciated into the market, so not as much room to grow, compared to the lower-priced market segment of the M10/M11. Their relative abundance means that new toys keep coming out for the MACs, making them also quite versatile, second only to the AR-15 platform, as a machinegun. An HK RR is a classy, but poor investment, generally, while an HK trigger pack or sear is almost as versatile as the AR-15 platform, though with a much higher cost of entry for host guns.

No MG is really inflation protected, because they are under eternal threat of being banned - rendering them useless as a secure long-term investment, even if the current owner were allowed to retain it and keep using it. (IMO)

Another consideration with the "Mac" family of guns is that the BATFE is really not approving any accessories.  Richard Lage and others have very versatile uppers and adapters for the various guns which are stuck in the technology branch limbo and have been for a while. Still, the M11 is one of the only guns that can be easily converted to a centerfire rifle machine gun and back again with almost no effort making it very desirable and a good entry into ownership. Interest was at an all-time high about 3 years ago, but seems to have cooled a bit as people wait to see what the BATFE does with these uppers (Richard has a 5.56 upper for the M10; A&S has an adapter to use any AR upper).

I think it's very hard to say where things will land. I do recall a dip in the value of some machine guns in 2008/2009, but don't know how to assess what will happen. I can say that M16s, Augs, AKs and HKs have been relatively stable for the last 3-4 years depending on the variation. I.e. a Sendra converted AR15 was $17K - 19K about 3 years ago and is still roughy in that range. Uzis are up, but the reason isn't clear to me since they are not as versatile, but have historical significance. Thompsons are relatively stable. What I have seen over the last 3-5 years is a 3-5% increase in most guns, except the Macs and Uzis, which are probably overvalued, though still desirable.

You'll also notice less for sale right now. I speculate that people are hanging onto their machine guns to diversify their portfolios, but could be wrong.

What type of machine would you like? Just kidding, my first MG was the MAC-10/45 and came with the first Lage slow fire which I paid $5300 for back in 2013. My second MG was a beautiful registered receiver “purple” Sendra lower which I paid $7000 for (yes I know I got a damn steal and couldn’t get to the bank quick enough) back in 2015. My third MG was a Fleming sear which currently resides in a Vollmer MP5k host that was sent off to T. Dyer for inspection and so forth. I’ll never sell my MG’s as they mean too much and I just admire them even more. Some start on the low end and go up from there, some start on the high end and go from there. It’s up to you as it is your money. M-16’s and MACs are by far the best platform for changing shit up with ease. Good luck!

Hard to beat a Mac, M16s or HK sear when it comes to modularity. They have all appreciated well and have lots of aftermarket support.

With that said if you have your heart set on something with history then maybe a Thompson, sten, sterling or anything in the WWII era is a good pick.

Belt feds are going to be limited, not many can be had for under $50k these days. M1919 is a popular option or you can get a MCR upper for the M16 or HK21/22/23 to run with a HK sear.

Honestly all will appreciate well so get what you enjoy owning and shooting.

The clear winners in recent years is probably the M11. Lage took what was once a dumpster machine gun and turned it into a modern, reliable and amazing looking sub machine.

Edit: as others have mentioned MGs are a risky investment. The stroke of a pen is all it takes to make the value of these go to zero. one mass shooting with a transferable machine gun is all it would take to get politicians and citizens behind banning and confiscating them. Just make sure you invest with money you can afford to loose.

Also your ammo consumption will increase by like 10x so any appreciation will be offset by the cost to feed the thing.

With that said they are fun as hell to shoot and only a small number of people will ever have the honor of owning a machine gun.

Plus you will always have the coolest gun at the range. Nothing quiets a range down and turns heads like that first mag dump.

M16 or HK sear.

This

Thank you so much for your response. Could you please elaborate on your reasons a little?

Thank you so much for your well-written response!

Why would MGs be completely banned? I would think they would go after the regular semi-autos first before they come after the MGs because most of Americans already believe MGs are illegal to own.

Thank you so much.

I was thinking about either MP5, M16, or a Registered Receiver for AR-15s.

MP5 - lots of people covet the iconic submachine gun but the price is sky high ($50K?). I would think this one holds its value well over time.
M16 - similar to the MP5 in terms value and appreciation. Some of them I saw are in new condition. I have no desire to buy an MG that I can't shoot. :-)
RR - certainly very versatile and a lot cheaper.

I think, depending on how the FRT situation plays out, AR15 RLL/RDIAS/RR prices could experience either a stagnation or recession.  Yes, the FRT is that good.  This past weekend I just shot two brand new FRT setups at the range with my number along side two MGs (M16 and RLL).  The FRT functionality was basically indistinguishable from the M16 or RLL shooting full auto. They needed zero tuning. I was impressed.

I see one of 3 things happening:

A) FRTs ruled as machineguns and Owners ordered to turn them in. NFA market remains unaffected.

B) FRT ruled legal, and remains legal indefinitely.  RDIAS/RR/RLL prices stagnate with depressed appreciation rates going forward because anyone can shoot “basically full auto” for $400.

C) FRT ruled legal, and subsequently banned by specific legislation the next time a gun control bargaining chips is needed. This means tens of thousands of existing $400 FRTs already out there are grandfathered.  FRT prices skyrocket 10X overnight and RDIAS/RR/RLL prices stagnate or drop a little before appreciating normally.

Good point! I'll wait for the ruling then.

I think A is a more likely outcome since a bump stock can be ruled as a machine gun.

Just my opinion, regarding the FRT. in 35 years since the Hughes Amendment, no loophole gimmick device ever brought to market that simulates automatic fire, has had any substantial effect on the transferable machine gun market. Over time it’s only steadily increased with certain points of stagnation only to increase again. Is it a given that that historical trend continues? Absolutely not, but I don’t think the FRT trigger will do anything more to the transferable machine gun market than bump stocks did. People with means will always want the real thing. That’s why Rolex and Bugatti exist in spite of Casio and Ford being available. Again just my opinion, but I don’t think any of the FRT type triggers are going to legally weather the storm.

Multiple reasons. Historically these have seen the most desirability and biggest gains.

The m16 is America’s rifle. And it’s easy to perform armorer level maintenance on yourself. And it’s super flexible in configuration.

The HK sear is extremely flexible in the what you can have: 9mm, 40cal, 10mm, 5.56, 7.62X39, 7.62x51, SMGs, compact assault rifles, assault rifles, battle rifles, beltfeds. Albeit at a high cost of entry for the sear and the hosts. HK roller delayed blowback firearms are iconic, sexy, and awesome to shoot.

If you want investment and appreciation, you need to find something with historical significance and not a ton in the market. Some of the transferrable WWII guns are good options.

If you want maximum fun, a transferrable receiver, DIAS or MAC are good options.

Some of the belt feds might be in the middle with more room for appreciation.

I wanted to shoot and my budget wasn't huge, so I bought a RR conversion receiver.

If I had a few million in investments, I would buy a Colt Monitor.

Did some math tonight. Based on the information provided by machinegunpriceguide.com, here are some appreciation rates from 2004 - 2021 for the ones I want:

AR15 RR    5.4%
M16A2     5.3%
FN FNC    5.8%
HK MP5 (All Configurations)    7.0%
HK MP5PDW    7.9%
HK MP5SD    7.1%
MAC10    7.9%
HK33/53    6.5%
HK Sears    5.9%
AR15 DIAS   6.4%

"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards." - Steve Jobs

The NFA, hughes amendment and the fact that any Law abiding citizen can own a MG as long as pay a $200 tax stamp is not something people know about outside of the gun community. The process is not even well known among most members on sites like this.

All it would take is one negative high profile event like a mass shooting with a transferable MG to draw attention to private MG ownership and soccer moms would be protesting in the streets.

The most recent audit of the NFA registery showed 176,000 MG. Roughly half are in privately owned. The rest are owned by gov agencies. Prior to 1986 citizens and police forces all used the same registery for their MGs.

So if the government were to ban MGs they would be only pissing off a very small group of people, likely in the tens of thousands. The ATF, politicians and even pro gun groups have made it clear they are willing to throw small groups of gun owners under the bus such as the ban on bump stocks and other triggers that simulate full auto.

With all that said the NFA has been around since 1934 and the Hughes amendment since 1986 so if they haven’t out right banned them in the last 100 years they could very well still be legal 100 years from now

Gonna go against the grain here. I think the  m16/dias or HK sear are really higher than they should be but don't expect them to drop but also don't expect the value to really sky rocket any. For something that will hold it's value and just keep going up I'd look at a valmet. Not gonna be an eazy find but should go up in value due to multiple factors.

I think the sky is the limit for HK autosears and HK registered trigger frames.

Lately the Uzis have appreciated but I expect them to drop in the next year. They should not be going up towards M16 price as of right now.

Idk at some point people will realize the HK platforms are way out dated with terrible ergonomics. But it's gonna be a long while till that. When I bring post samples to a shoot the mp5 and mg42 get more attention then anything else.

Hk sear > thread

@azmp5

Does any HK sear fit Hk53?

@TheStupid
Unless I’m misunderstanding you…..A transferable sear (Fleming, Qualified, S&H etc) properly set up in a trigger pack will work in any HK 9x series gun. That’s what makes them so valuable and desirable. You can have 1 sear and a MP5K, MP5, MP5SD, HK53, G3k etc as hosts and shoot all of them in FA.

Compact and full-size SMGs in 9, 40, 357 sig, 10mm
Subcompact, compact, and full-size assault rifles in 5.56, 7.62x39, and 300 BO
Compact and full-size battle rifles in 308
Beltfeds in 5.56 and 308

No other transferable MG gives this level of flexibility.

Out dated with mediocre ergonomics, sure. But still awesome and excellent shooters.

I agree.

Too bad there isnt a convenient .22 long rifle weapon as ammo prices become more of an issue.

My fave rifle is the M16 as one can shoot .22 or even adapt to 7.63x39 or 5.45x39 as well.
300 blackout makes no sense to me at a buck a round.

Also FNC sears have gone nuts in the last 10 years.
Steyr augs have doubled.

Username checks out.

Exactly, you just do a quick ejector change in the trigger pack to the proper caliber.  I used my sear packs in all those hosts at will plus multiple more (MM11).  I registered all my SBR variants to keep semi packs in them when not using a sear pack.  Sadly, I sold all my HKs when sears hit the $32K mark and work was requiring me to move to a non-NFA state.  Although, since I bought many of them for around $6K with a host weapon included, I actually did very well.  I've since moved back to a NFA friendly area and have rebuilt a nice collection including multiple bucket list items (including those in my avatar picture).

According to the other thread... They are all worth about a $1000.

While understanding diversification is important in any portfolio, and I'm the last guy to talk anyone out of an MG purchase, the majority of appreciation figures you're quoting don't even outpace inflation.

What type of expectations do you have for your MG's value 17 years from now compared to other investments?

Attached File

For the vast majority of machine gun owners, machine guns are a hobby, in fact they can be a somewhat expensive hobby, not a financial investment.  Machine guns are actually a rather poor monetary investment.  There are many machine gun ownership cost factors - factors that the machine gun owning enthusiast sometimes fails to recognize and address (or may be in denial about) - that detract from the investment value of machine guns.  Such expenses as, and not necessarily limited to: ammo cost; wear and tear on gun parts; added fire and theft loss insurance as an additional rider on their home owners insurance or as a separate policy; the cost and bother (especially an issue with belt fed machine guns) of trips to a suitable (i.e., full auto and often caliber accepting) range and if one is using one’s own property, the initial cost, plus on going taxes, insurance and other upkeep costs on the property; gun club/range membership initial fee and continuing dues if one shoots at such a venue; and opportunity cost of otherwise investing the funds used to purchase the machine gun.  Meanwhile, with other investments such as stocks, index funds, certificates of deposit, bonds, etc. the ownership expenses are relatively low.  Of course there are some machine gun enthusiasts with safe queens that they enjoy for what they are regardless of strictly monetary value, so their ammo and wear and tear costs may be minimal.  These safe queen machine guns tend to be rare, actual investment grade firearms, and are the exception.
Best of luck with whatever you decide to pursue.
MHO, YMMV, etc.  Be well.

I'd suggest the MAC 10 made in Powder Springs. Durable, strongest receiver (thickest steel), and can fire 9mm, 45, and 5.56. It's the only gun (with the M11/9) that gets aftermarket attention and new uppers. As a result, it is in the best position to appreciate beyond inflation.

After the MAC series, I'd then say the M16 or HKs, but there are some folks that have said that they plan on ditching their M16s to simply fire M10/15s or M11/15s. The MAC series of firearms are becoming the new RDIAS transferables.

I think the M16 platform is the most flexible and prefer it over the HK platform for several reasons:
1.  More 22LR options.  I have several 22LR uppers utilizing common 30 round mags, or 50 round Blackdog drums as well as the belt fed LM7.  While the HK platform it is pretty much just the G3 22LR conversion which has low capacity mags although Bazooka Brothers did make an AM180 drum adapter but I have to personally see one of those run reliably.
2.   Much easier to work on the M16 platform than the HK.  You need a hydraulic press to swap barrels on the HK.
3.  HK platform is dying with very little innovation coming out for them vs the booming AR market.
4.  Way better current and future trigger options for the M16 platform.  I run a Geissele SSF in my M16 variants.  I don't think any HK trigger can compare.
5.  Much better optic mounting options on the AR/M16 family
6.  The M16 platform is tuneable using modern options.  I personally like the hydraulic buffers by Kynshot.  Tubb flat springs.  Jim Sullivan invented the Surefire SOB carrier.  Ferfrans has their RRS carrier.  No real tuning you can do on an HK other than changing locking pieces.
7.  More caliber options on the M16 platform.  Some may argue you can get an HK sear to run the same calibers but to what extent?  Are those parts as easily obtainable as well as finding someone to do the work?  Besides the common calibers that both platforms can shoot.  Do some research and see what it takes to run .357 sig, .40SW, .45ACP, 5.45x39, .458 SOCOM. 50 Beowulf, 300 BLK, 4.6mm in the M16 platform vs the HK Platform.  Several of those are new offerings by CMMG that are delayed blowback that run in the M16 platform and some I don't care to run but if I did, I could easily get the parts for.  With ammo availability these days you can pivot to other calibers easily, I've run my RDIAS in .40SW because it was readily available when 9mm wasn't.    

The only checkbox the HK has that the M16 family does not have is belt fed 308 but really, IMHO the HK21 just beats itself up and is not enjoyable to shoot.  For mag fed .308, there is an ATF letter out there that has approved the Colt 901 in 308 to be used with a RDIAS.

Picture below of modular MGI lower used in conjunction with a RDIAS for the most modularity.



If you are serious about getting one, I wouldn't be looking at it as in investment.  I think you need to ask yourself if you are a collector or shooter.  As a shooter w/ the most options the RDIAS is unbeatable for the reasons I mentioned above.  As a collector, I would think you would want maybe something like a factory Colt M16 that sits in the same and you occasionally take out.  I have a friend that several factory Colt M16's and he is more of a collector than a shooter these days.  He few a M16's as well as a RLL, RDIAS.  One Colt M16 that he has he only runs a 22LR upper on it so if it did have an OOB, a 22LR isn't going to damage his lower.  

The ones you don’t own.

The "appreciation" has already happened over the past 35 years...... buying RR M-16's, DIAS's, and HK sears right now means you are buying at the top of the market. There eventually comes a point where they are simply not affordable.

If I was buying an MG strictly based on potential value increase, It's be looking at Maxim /Vickers/Lewis guns, WW1 and 2 Jap and Italian MG's and SMG's, as well as interwar German SMG's. ......they are at bargain prices right now.

Shooting an MP-28 will put just as much of a grin on your face as an MP5

Dupe post

With the influx of available off-brand HK seat hosts hitting the market recently, I think that will keep the HK seat market grow a little bit.

Not so for everyone.

As long as the seats keep sellin' and the old guys don't keep correcting autocorrect.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but I definitely don't agree. I bought my Fleming sear in 2007. I heard the same sentiments expressed then as you are expressing now. I have 25 host guns. Over half of them are configurations that HK never sold. Most of the machineguns you listed are extremely heavy or are rare so replacement parts are very hard to find. And how many guys have their own range? There are some but most of us use commercial or gun club ranges. To lug 100 pounds of water cooled beltfed from the parking lot to the firing line  has not been that popular. I think that is a big reason for such a limited increase in market value.

When I bought my first machinegun (Colt M16 registered receiver) in 2003 the WW I beltfeds have not gone up in market value in the last 20 years. I think that the stuff like DIASs and HK sears have gone up so much as parts and host guns are easily found at reasonable prices and the sear in a host gun is easily portable with a very limited risk of damage during use.

OP, if you are looking for simply increasing market value for the machinegun market, I think that the Mac style family of RRs would be your best bet as far as increased market value. No machinegun would be a safe long term investment, for the reasons already sited. Figure out what you want to shoot and buy that. I have yet to hear of anyone removing bearer bonds from their safe and enjoying time with them. I have something over 100,000 rounds of use with the various machineguns in my collection over the last 20 years. Even after all that trigger time dumping a Beta C in one trigger pull still brings a smile to my face. That enjoyment has been priceless to me. YMMV.

Scott

All MG minus beltfed and worse water cooled right now.  Everyone wants a gun they can grab and go to the range in a standard caliber.

I have a m-11 w/ Lage upper I got a few years ago and love it.  That said, prices are at the point where they don't make sense.

Why spend $50K for a gun if your goal is to shoot the shit out of it? I haven't run any numbers but aren't we at the point where it is cheaper to get a FFL with SOT and make your own?

We're getting there. I bought mine from someone who decided to go the SOT route.

Why have one machinegun when you can have 10....

Machinegunpriceguide isn't the greatest site for actual prices of MGs. One guy is updating it once in a while.. there use to be a team helping out. Some prices are skewed due to some prices are listed prices that are overinflated.

There are a lot of what if's dealing with the AFT.
1. Banning MGs.. I'm not sure this will happen. I would think they would go after the more commonly accessible ones before MGs. I would think they would go after ammo which screws everyone. They did already ban imported ammo from Russia.. but fortunately some of that ammo they were trying to ban is actually produced in other countries.

2. MAC 10/11 with Lage is an amazing advancement. I did hear they had to get approval for different uppers.. but they have been getting approvals even though slow.

3. FRT.. Though I'm rooting for it even though it might tank the price of my RR. Honestly, I think they would ban it in the end.  Hell, they count a stupid shoelace as a MG part! Also I also highly doubt they would grandfather it in if they do classify it as a MG.

Sad to say I saw FNC sears as a great investment back when they were 3-4K but the "experts" convinced me lack of factory support and parts made them a white elephant.
Passed on several AUG sear guns back when they were 14K.
HKs and M16 or course have gone up but not to that extent.

Today I think the M16 has the most potential because of it's adaptability and usage by lots of people out of the service that want that nostalgia back.
I have 5.45, .22 and 9MM conversions and was thinking about a belt fed upper. Cheapest to own and shoot belt fed on the market.
Thompsons have rightly begun to climb back up after languishing for years. There are .22 kits out there.

Someone needs to make a functional .22 kit for the AR18 and then they would get the respect they deserve.
.22 kits are out there for .223 AKs by ciener. fairly rare.

Wild card;
HK91 with .22 kit.

I tried to shoot with my stock certificates last weekend.
Brought an M16 too.
M16 much more fun.

Well, because in this case, “have” and “own” are two completely differently things. Some would rather own one than borrow any number of them.

In SOT land, “have” is renting unless you buy Pre May keepers, which are now similarly priced to transferables, anyway. Yes, with a SOT, you have access to newer, nicer stuff in the immediate but in the end, none of it is really yours.

And that is to say nothing of the ongoing requirements hassles that go along with having the SOT, namely the “being in business” part. I would think that having to operate a legit FFL is one of the last things most machinegun shooters and collectors want to do. Of course, there are some guys out there who do (and don’t mind).

Also, owning 10 MGs and having a SOT are not mutual exclusive, either.

There are plenty of guys out there who own big transferable collections that “shoot the shit out of” them.

On the flip side, I suppose we are all just temporary caretakers of them, anyway.

eta: OP, the best advice is what someone else already said: buy what you want most and don’t worry about appreciation.

If you can afford it, a Colt M16 (not a SP1 conversion) is not only a good investment, it's collectable and versatile.
There is no other MG that is as configurable as the M16. I personally run mine most with a .22 conversion.
No matter how you configure a MAC, the grip is still going to feel like a MAC unless you cut off the mag well and configure it to use an UZI grip, then it will feel like an UZI, which isn't much of an improvement.
Entry pricing for a MAC is far less than half of a Colt M16 but if you can afford to play in this league and have the cash to burn up thousands of rounds of centerfire ammo, then you shouldn't be concerning yourself with the initial buy-in.
Wiser people than me have stated that in the MG world you don't pay too much, only too soon. And it's true. Not many people out there with MGs are upside down in them. At most all you have to do is wait a couple of years and you'll at minimum be breaking even.
Most people who own a MG (individuals, not businesses or LE) own just one. If you are buying one to use and enjoy, it's important to get your favorite first. If it's just for investment purposes, invest in stocks.

Unfortunately, past results are no guarantee of future gains.

From my standpoint, the M16 is the best MG to start with. So many options in uppers and configurations. I have several 223 uppers, 9mm, a dedicated 22, a couple of belt fed Ares uppers.

Next is the HK sear, not permanently married by "kit of parts" verbiage. Maximum cool factor, everyone I take to the range wants to shoot it. I have 3 9mm hosts I shoot with it, and a belt fed to waste ammo. Plus a couple of 9mm HK guns that sit in the safe as collector pieces.

The MAC is kind of a clunky gun, that I shoot the least. It is growing in versatility, but you will spend far more in ammo than the cost of a machine gun in a few years. Unless you reload, in which case you're also spending time.

In my case, the fun factor, and how much I will enjoy a particular series or family of hosts is far more important than possible future value appreciation or low initial cost.

Buy for fun, not for investment potential.