How long do you think the reloading shortage will last?

My *guess* is that it'll ease more quickly than factory ammo simply due to how niche the product is (then again, that same niche factor also limits upstream production capacity).

I've noticed powders, primers, and bullets have all become more available over the last few weeks. In March it was getting pretty rough.

Factory ammo is going to be ugly for the entirety of the year and who knows what will happen post-election.

This is my 11th or 12th shortage over my reloading career.

They all have 1 thing in common, prices go up, and never quite go down as low as they were before the shortage.

The time they last is usually based on the situation. My advice op is to just keep an eye on the stock and when you see the components you need, pick them up.

Hopefully, you do not feel the next shortage like you feel this one after you stack your components deep.

My only frustration during this event was that my NOE and midsouth shooting order shipped a few weeks after ordering vs the usual 2 to 3 business days.

A basis for a component shortage can occur overnight and no one knows how long a panic shortage situation will last. There have been a number of such instances in the last thirty years and some have lasted more than two years. Many have learned to buy during the plentiful times so they can ride out the lean ones with adequate component supplies.

Shortage of what?

All anyone here can do is guess and this time is not really like the others in the past due to the Kung Flu stuff.

Looking around lately at the places I normally shop - Most of the bullets and primers I normally buy are unobtainium.

What I normally do in times like this is just put the money I would normally be spending on this type stuff to the side for later. When the particular product I want comes back in stock later at a reasonable price I will buy then. If it is a really 'good' price - I will buy big and stack it deep. Really stinks to see a super sale come along and not have money set aside to be able to take full advantage of it.

I think it is the early stages of easing off. I just ordered 4 drums of custom brass from Starline yesterday.  If they were expecting things to stay bad it would not be in stock and would be gone for a long time. Primers and powder always lag.

There will be a lot of autodrives on the market cheap when all the new-comers jumped straight into the game with one instead of a something practical to learn on.

I don’t think there was ever a shortage a la 2013.

What we do have is very narrow windows of availability due to products being made in batches and/or overseas which can have a huge impact on supplies for ex fires in Aus where H powders are made then covid fucking up global trade.

Even then I’ve bought all the hard to find stuff in the past couple months. Varget, XBR, H4350, H1000, CCI 450s etc. All of this stuff was in stock multiple times over this time period sometimes even for a couple of days.  

I’ve very successfully used backorders to mitigate a lot of that and just wait for my shit to come in. If that’s not an option you better have all your payment and shipping info saved so you can add to your cart and hit the buy button.

Only thing I’ve had trouble finding is RL26 but that just came in stock for a few hours at Midsouth this week so it too is out there.

Retumbo is about the only thing I haven’t seen come back into stock but I don’t use it.

.45 acp 230 gr. bullets for one.

These are home cast 193 gr hollow point bullets. Without the hollow point, they will be in the 220 to 230 gr range. This little batch was an hour at the forge, 20 min at the "powdercoating station" and 20 more min to load them up and shoot them. I only made so few because I really wanted to try them out and heat cycle my mould.

Attached File


Casting these was my answer to "my favorite type of 45 bullet is out of stock or no longer made again?"

The lesson is pretty much that with proper planning, these shortages can be mitigated or ignored altogether. I now shoot 45 acp for about $.05 and 9mm for $.04. I cant wait to get into 10mm!

My crystal ball showed me scenes of supply shortages easing as the COVID restrictions ease up.  

This was followed shortly thereafter by re-tightening as people panic buy in advance of the upcoming presidential election.

Then, after Trump is re-elected, the shortages ease again for a good long time.

It'll pick back up closer to the election, especially if the polls show Biden in the lead.

You guys will have to blame me for that one. Pretty sure I was the guy that bought all of those...

Politics is the only driver of reloading component shortages. This never occurs in normal conditions. People don't decide to hoard/stock up if there isn't a political threat.

230 grain jacketed round nose  &  230 grain Gold Dot - both in stock as of this post...  Both are Speer offerings - there are also Sierra offerings at the same location...  

I would have to agree. I got a lot of components on rebate and sales before this happened. In one sense they couldn't give the stuff away. As soon as the heavy hand of government happened with Covid prices went up in tandem with them.

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