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Posted: 2/19/2021 12:50:26 PM EDT
I've been following the data for almost 10 years and can't think back to when they went into this much detail on reporting. This is a literal gold mine for data nerds.
Found all of this on AmmoLand- LINK Per this report they are claiming 512,315 NFA Forms processed in 2020. That is a 50% INCREASE from 2019 (342,860). The coolest part of the data that I don't know if I have ever seen is the differentiation between individuals/ Trusts/ FFL/ GOV in regards to silencers registered. Going off these numbers there are TEN TIMES the number of silencers in civilian hands vs. GOV/LE.  Also have never seen a breakdown in the number of pending applications before. This is really cool data. Same with the differentiation of Form 1/ Form4 for SILENCERS ONLY. Up until now it was always an educated guess as to what % of F1/F4 silencers were. That guess was always in the 80-80% range. Just doing some quick math- In 2019 there were 170k Form 4's processed for all NFA Firearms (Machine Guns, SBRS, SBS, etc) Add 50% to that to account for 2020 growth- that is 255k. So with 236,220 SILENCER F4's processed in 2020 that means that silencers would account for ~ 92% of all F4's processed.  
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Posted: 2/19/2021 12:58:29 PM EDT
neat
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Posted: 2/19/2021 1:24:26 PM EDT
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Posted: 2/19/2021 1:31:56 PM EDT
Thank you so much for posting this, man - just got your message.
Very interesting! The consumer space continues to demand suppressed small arms. I like this. Jay PEW Science |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 2:51:14 PM EDT
Quoted: Per this report they are claiming 512,315 NFA Forms processed in 2020. 512,315 * $200 tax stamp = $102,463,000 After seeing that number there is no way Tax Stamps will ever go away even for suppressors. Why give up all that extra cash. |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 3:44:03 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: 512,315 * $200 tax stamp = $102,463,000 After seeing that number there is no way Tax Stamps will ever go away even for suppressors. Why give up all that extra cash. This is a common argument. It doesn't really hold water though. Less than half those forms are tax paid. Most are Form 2/3/5. ATF's budget is $1,368.4 million- as in a billion dollars. It's not about the money. It's about the power. $102 million is literally nothing in the General Treasury. |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 6:20:57 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: 512,315 * $200 tax stamp = $102,463,000 After seeing that number there is no way Tax Stamps will ever go away even for suppressors. Why give up all that extra cash. You think ATF keeps the fees generated by tax stamps?  Just like the IRS, the revenue goes to the US Treasury, ATF doesn't keep a dime. |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 7:25:44 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: 512,315 * $200 tax stamp = $102,463,000 After seeing that number there is no way Tax Stamps will ever go away even for suppressors. Why give up all that extra cash. The more important question is how many voters does that represent? So the "2,353,436 Weapons processed", what does that mean? NICS checks? |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 7:43:18 PM EDT
Would like to see number of personnel for each year that do the actual form 1s and form 4s and efile.
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Posted: 2/19/2021 7:47:36 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: This is a common argument. It doesn't really hold water though. Less than half those forms are tax paid. Most are Form 2/3/5. ATF's budget is $1,368.4 million- as in a billion dollars. One Tomahawk Cruise missile costs $202.3 million. It's not about the money. It's about the power. $102 million is literally nothing in the General Treasury. you are way too high on the cost of a Tomahawk. |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 7:51:22 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: So the "2,353,436 Weapons processed", what does that mean? NICS checks? I am assuming that would be the number of Serialized forearms that were processed on all the forms they went through in 2020. That’s kind of a fake number. The same SN can change hands multiple times in the same year. Silencer is made-F2 transferred to wholesaler-F3 Transferred from wholesaler to dealer A-F3 Transferred from dealer A to Dealer B (imagine an internet sale from Hansohn Bros to your local SOT)-F3 Then F4 to you. That’s 5 forms. All on the same SN. And it would count 5 times towards that 2.5M number. |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 8:07:37 PM EDT
Quote History #metoo! Thanks to you, I've got a Vox on the way  @HansohnBrothers |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 11:19:32 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: #metoo! Thanks to you, I've got a Vox on the way @HansohnBrothers Thank you for being a Vox shooter! Here is to hoping for a quick turn on your stamp!Karl Edminster Energetic Armament LLC |
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Posted: 2/19/2021 11:22:23 PM EDT
Know I'm getting older when I look forward to the annual ikickhippies NFA stats post.
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Posted: 2/20/2021 1:24:07 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: This is a common argument. It doesn't really hold water though. Less than half those forms are tax paid. Most are Form 2/3/5. ATF's budget is $1,368.4 million- as in a billion dollars. One Tomahawk Cruise missile costs $202.3 million. It's not about the money. It's about the power. $102 million is literally nothing in the General Treasury. |
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Posted: 2/20/2021 2:55:49 PM EDT
I wonder what this will look like next year.
We are only two months into 2021 and so far everyone seems slammed with suppressor purchases. Even the ATF eForms site seems especially slow. |
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Posted: 2/20/2021 3:05:08 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: One Tomahawk Cruise missile costs $202.3 million. It's not about the money. It's about the power. $102 million is literally nothing in the General Treasury. Not arguing your point at all, but a Tomahawk cruise missile is only around 1.5 million |
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Posted: 2/20/2021 8:24:02 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: Not arguing your point at all, but a Tomahawk cruise missile is only around 1.5 million Shit. You’re right. Googled and didn’t read all the way through. In 2016 they bought 149 of them. At a total cost of 202M. But yeah. You get my point. Time to go find another example that’s $100M.
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Posted: 2/22/2021 2:33:44 AM EDT
Why such a disparity in processing times between a paper Form 1 and a paper Form 4?
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Posted: 2/22/2021 3:33:16 AM EDT
We should be sending these stats to politicians. I guarantee they have no clue the numbers involved.
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Posted: 2/22/2021 7:10:53 AM EDT
Quote History Quoted: We should be sending these stats to politicians. I guarantee they have no clue the numbers involved. I'm not sure we want any political attention on these numbers. The ATF seems to have their processing times down to 5 or 6 months which is much better than the 12 to 15 from two years ago even with the higher volume. If feinstein or waters were made aware of these numbers, they would probably freak out and try to push more legislation for restrictions or bans. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 8:32:25 AM EDT
Quote History
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Posted: 2/22/2021 8:39:04 AM EDT
Quote History Quoted: I'm not sure we want any political attention on these numbers. The ATF seems to have their processing times down to 5 or 6 months which is much better than the 12 to 15 from two years ago even with the higher volume. If feinstein or waters were made aware of these numbers, they would probably freak out and try to push more legislation for restrictions or bans. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: We should be sending these stats to politicians. I guarantee they have no clue the numbers involved. I'm not sure we want any political attention on these numbers. The ATF seems to have their processing times down to 5 or 6 months which is much better than the 12 to 15 from two years ago even with the higher volume. If feinstein or waters were made aware of these numbers, they would probably freak out and try to push more legislation for restrictions or bans. good point 
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Posted: 2/22/2021 12:35:51 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: I'm not sure we want any political attention on these numbers. The ATF seems to have their processing times down to 5 or 6 months which is much better than the 12 to 15 from two years ago even with the higher volume. If feinstein or waters were made aware of these numbers, they would probably freak out and try to push more legislation for restrictions or bans. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 12:43:24 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: Why such a disparity in processing times between a paper Form 1 and a paper Form 4? Could it be a different group that does F1s and they just aren't as overwhelmed? |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 1:19:35 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: That is interesting. 3 months for a paper F1 vs 7 months for the F4. If anything, you'd think the F4 would be quicker because the item is already on the registry. Could it be a different group that does F1s and they just aren't as overwhelmed? I would think the F1 would be quicker because it's NOT on the registry. It just means adding that firearm, while a Form 4 requires transferring from an existing entry on the registry to a new entry. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 1:40:48 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: I would think the F1 would be quicker because it's NOT on the registry. It just means adding that firearm, while a Form 4 requires transferring from an existing entry on the registry to a new entry. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That is interesting. 3 months for a paper F1 vs 7 months for the F4. If anything, you'd think the F4 would be quicker because the item is already on the registry. Could it be a different group that does F1s and they just aren't as overwhelmed? I would think the F1 would be quicker because it's NOT on the registry. It just means adding that firearm, while a Form 4 requires transferring from an existing entry on the registry to a new entry. A Form 1, is a new creation that needs entered, validated as well as the person being vetted. I'd imagine the validation part could be the longest part. Does said mfg exist, is the SN correct..etc. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 3:01:14 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: I'd say dmk would be right. An existing item is a known quantity on the registry and validated. The only thing that "should" need to be done is make sure the person receiving the item is entered correctly and able to receive said item (background check). If so, done. A Form 1, is a new creation that needs entered, validated as well as the person being vetted. I'd imagine the validation part could be the longest part. Does said mfg exist, is the SN correct..etc. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: That is interesting. 3 months for a paper F1 vs 7 months for the F4. If anything, you'd think the F4 would be quicker because the item is already on the registry. Could it be a different group that does F1s and they just aren't as overwhelmed? I would think the F1 would be quicker because it's NOT on the registry. It just means adding that firearm, while a Form 4 requires transferring from an existing entry on the registry to a new entry. A Form 1, is a new creation that needs entered, validated as well as the person being vetted. I'd imagine the validation part could be the longest part. Does said mfg exist, is the SN correct..etc. A Form 1 firearm does not have a manufacturer or serial # to be vetted. Its a form filed by the MAKER. A Form 1 firearm does not even exist until its actually made....and it shouldn't be made until the F! is approved and the applicant has the stamp in hand. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 3:19:18 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: A Form 1 firearm does not have a manufacturer or serial # to be vetted. Its a form filed by the MAKER. A Form 1 firearm does not even exist until its actually made....and it shouldn't be made until the F! is approved and the applicant has the stamp in hand. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: That is interesting. 3 months for a paper F1 vs 7 months for the F4. If anything, you'd think the F4 would be quicker because the item is already on the registry. Could it be a different group that does F1s and they just aren't as overwhelmed? I would think the F1 would be quicker because it's NOT on the registry. It just means adding that firearm, while a Form 4 requires transferring from an existing entry on the registry to a new entry. A Form 1, is a new creation that needs entered, validated as well as the person being vetted. I'd imagine the validation part could be the longest part. Does said mfg exist, is the SN correct..etc. A Form 1 firearm does not have a manufacturer or serial # to be vetted. Its a form filed by the MAKER. A Form 1 firearm does not even exist until its actually made....and it shouldn't be made until the F! is approved and the applicant has the stamp in hand. The only Form 1 stuff that doesn't "exist" are home made suppressors. They never existed unlike guns. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 3:53:47 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: You're trying to be too cute. The gun does exist. You turn an existing rifle/pistol into an SBR. The Rifle/Pistol DOES exist. It was manufactured by a company. It has a serial #. If you think I'm wrong, then NO Form 1 would ever be rejected. The only Form 1 stuff that doesn't "exist" are home made suppressors. They never existed unlike guns. It exists in the existential sense. But it does not "exist" in any sort of government database or registry as a Title I firearm. There is literally a federal law prohibiting this. It is not entered into any registry (like the NFA registry) until a Form 1 or Form 2 is filed & processed. |
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Posted: 2/22/2021 5:40:38 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: It exists in the existential sense. But it does not "exist" in any sort of government database or registry as a Title II firearm. Quote HistoryQuoted: It exists in the existential sense. But it does not "exist" in any sort of government database or registry as a Title II firearm.  There is literally a federal law prohibiting this. It is not entered into any registry (like the NFA registry) until a Form 1 or Form 2 is filed & processed. If I recall correctly it typically exists on the manufacturer's database/server and ATF can login to it and check data (like for traces) without having to contact an employee of the manufacturer. It contains transfer details of which FFLs the manufactured firearms were sent to. This would be for large scale Title I manufacturers, under agreement with ATF. It was described to me in a conversation but I haven't actually seen it in action. The details may vary by manufacturer. Technically it isn't the government's database; they simply have access to it. Would they need/want to trace a Title I firearm (or even verify its serialized existence) in order to approve an NFA form? I would think not. But it's just some random info.
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Posted: 2/22/2021 8:04:38 PM EDT
Quote History Quoted: ...The only Form 1 stuff that doesn't "exist" are home made suppressors.... You have a lot of reading to do. Start with "80% receivers or frames". |
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