I would say I am a "more than average" class 3 gun dude, and getting a 02/07 "legitimate enough" business sounds miserable. If I had a quarter million in machine guns maybe, but I don't want a gun business, nor do I want to have to worry about if I am being "legitimate enough".

Not to mention I've been busy this last year and haven't got out shooting much and its nice to know I have zero worry about making a few scammy sales to keep my 02/07 afloat.

Lets also not forget if one day you decide you still love guns, but hate keeping the "legitimate enough" business going, you're range visits all the sudden get a lot more boring

I think prices are absolutely going down. The last few weeks, someone on GB had a Colt M16A1 in good condition for $24.5 and it didn’t sell. Maybe it was photos, maybe it was low feedback, but it seemed legitimate and didn’t go anywhere. Edit: also saw Aluminum RDIAS was $30, no bites.

Last winter and into the spring, $25-$26 was the selling price for a Colt M16A1, with 614s moving $22-$23. I saw an M16 conversion go for ~$16 in the last month or so. The list M16s at $30k just aren’t moving.  Uzis are sitting and not selling. Frank and Ruben have a lot of M16 and Uzi inventory without a lot of turnover.

Seems like I fit squarely into the category of “paid too early” for my M16A1
But I’m sure once my stamp finally clears, I’ll feel a lot differently

Prices are absolutely going down and it seems that the market as a whole is either down or stagnant, depending on the gun. I just saw a West Hurley 1928 that had GI internals and was stated to function go for $15,600. Also John Thedford has brand new full UZI’s with an asking price of $12,500.

This is a good thing (and I am saying this as a person that bought a Vector full size Uzi in June). The prices in a lot of cases are just silly. Should prices come back down to earth, that will make guns more attainable for the enthusiast. For example, I’d like an FNC but $15,000 to $18,000 is rediculous.

I wouldn't loose sleep over it, the firearms market in general is soft. Everything from title I to title II firearms and from ammo to accessories. Honestly if you have the money now is the time to buy because in a year we will start pre-election panic. And depending on how the election goes we are either in for another 4 years of cheap prices or 4 years of high prices and constantly defending our freedom. Even if trump wins the 2020 election its almost certain republicans will loose in 2024 as its rare for one party to hold the office for 3 straight elections. People will look back in 5-10 years and say "dang I really with I would have bought X when it was super cheap" The avg firearms owner only thinks of buying firearms and stocking up on ammo when there is a threat of it being taken away.

Also price can vary widely for what appear to be two similar items. Model, condition, and current market saturation play a big part. Is person selling for a profit or are they in need of fast cash to pay bills? Is it a private sale or a dealer? Form 3 vs form 4, in state vs out of state, does the buyer want to buy it NOW or are they willing to shop around for a few months, etc... tons of variables.  If I list my non-colt M16 RR for $16k I can sell it in a few hours, $17k will sell it within a day or two, $18k will get it sold by the end of the week, and $20k is pretty much letting people know I own one and if you find the ad 6 months after I posted it chances are its probably still for sale.

FWIW, at the Morphy auction yesterday as near as I could tell, overall the MG prices were more or less flat.  Most sales were on site, which I believe had a lower buyers premium.  There were a couple on the high side and a couple that went lowish which one would expect at an auction, but no real surprises or new trends.

MHO, YMMV, etc.

I am not a MG expert and have never followed the trends... But it appears that DealerNFA just reduced the price of Colt M16 to $28k from 30... M16A1 are still listed at $30K. Thought that was interesting.

With the GOP keeping the senate and no foreseeable assault on the 2A until a democrat controls the WH things will likely stay stable. Probably a good time to buy in the next 12mo. Once Election 2020 rolls around and candidates start throwing gun control around prices may start going up slightly (doubt we will see any big jumps) on everything, MG included.

I’ve been watching prices pretty closely for about 6 months, which is when I decided to buy a new MG. I’ve mostly been watching Uzis, MACs and S&Ws. I’ve noticed that prices basically stagnated, though I was able to score a very good condition Mac 10 9mm for $7k with a serviceable can and have my eyes on a Mac 11. I’d really love to get an Uzi, even a Vector, but am waiting to see if prices go to $11K. I have noticed that M16s, FNCs and Thompson’s have been stable with +\- 10%, but still too rich for my blood. Stens are trending down.

In this political environment, I wouldn't even consider buying a NFA full auto. Not unless it's throw away money. Very real chance within 10 years you will walking it into a police station for melting.  Let's hope not.

Thought I’d chime in as I saw this thread bumped up again. The new normal for a RR vector Uzi seems to be 11500/12000. Funny thing, I’ve been keeping an eye on the mk760’s. I’ve seen them advertised anywhere from $6500 to $8900. That is quite a spread. The odd thing is, an mk760 listed at $6900 (on the lower end of the scale) belongs to one of the better known dealers known for having premium prices.

Earlier in this thread I mentioned that so many available mags are sold by dealers so they can control market prices. Prices are very sticky... barring anything unexpected, I think we will continue to see many values go down..... slowly.

Yeah that’s not quite how that would work.

Most people without a MG say that

And the ATF can raid your home any time they want.

Oh I'm sorry, I thought we were just listing NFA myths we here people talking about at the local gun shop.

Also most people who are buying MGs are wealthy enough if their MG went to $0 overnight it wouldn't move their net worth one bit.

Yep. Silly. I have heard non-owners make comments like this ever since I started following transferable MGs in the mid 90s.

Interesting to watch the prices. Bad time to be poor, lol
Im not worried about confiscation, its already documented with the gov. They're more concerned about easy over the counter evil AWs.