First off I have been out of the market for a while (2-3 years) seems like things flatlined during that time. I started poking around this week and it seems prices are actually dropping. What do you think is driving that? The economy is doing great previously I really only saw prices drop during 2008 time frame.

My reason for saying this is I just picked up an uzi for 9.8k IMI RR conversion blocking bar removed. Hell I sold a BG uzi bolt for 9k in 2015

I thought I just got lucky but I have seen some other deals now to

Part of it is the long wait for Form 4 approvals.

Possibly the market is saturated?  I have several MGs and not looking to add any more - I already don't shoot the ones I have often enough, no need to add another mouth to feed

The whole firearms market is soft. Ammo is dirt cheap, semi-auto firearms are cheap, manufacturers are going out of business left and right.

My top guesses for what going on in no particular order:
1) Republican president means gun owners aren't scared of loosing their rights and aren't panic buying everything
2) 8 years of Obama means people are tapped out on their gun budget and have surpluses of guns and ammo.
3) Year long waits for form 4s keeps impulse shoppers away.
4) requiring finger prints, signatures, photos and dozens of pages of forms for trusts now sucks. I had my dad and brother on my trust just in case I kicked the bucket, but now every time I want to buy something I have to wait until a major holiday to get prints, and signatures. Last time I did it I was getting eye rolls and could tell people were annoyed. My next purchase will be as an individual.
5) Investors, I think there were a lot of people buying MGs who had no intention of keeping or shooting them, they just wanted to put some money into an asset that got 10%+ returns per years and dump it as soon as the returns leveled off.
6) Price! People have been saying MGs were over priced for years but they have admittedly gotten to ridiculous levels. When a AR15 costs $1,000 and a M16 costs $2,000 people were not buying them out of principal or laziness, the price really wasn't the obstacle. But AR15s are still $1,000 and an M16 is $20,000. That's a legit financial barrier.
7) There are no "entry level" MGs anymore. MACs used to be a couple grand, at that price just about every gun owner could own a MG if they really wanted. And of course once you buy one you are more likely to buy more. But the entry level MGs are going for $6-8k, that's worth more than most peoples gun collections and as a result I think we are seeing a lot less people owning 1 or 2 MGs and instead fewer wealthy owners with large collections.
8) The economy may not be as strong as we think. We are WELL overdue for a recession, and stock market always lags behind the economy, so we could already be in a recession and just not realize. One of the first things people cut are luxury items, which would certainly be MGs.
9) A lot of belt feds have gone down in value in the last 10-15 years as military surplus ammo has dried up. Shooting a MG42 isn't much fun at a $1 a round for new production ammo. The M2 50 cal is nearly impossible to feed at $2-3 a round.
10) Finding MG/NFA friendly ranges is a pain, ive had a couple formerly MG ranges in my area turn me away. Politics? insurance? idiots with illegal MGs? not sure... whatever it is all I know is I admittedly have a lot of $ wrapped up in MGs that only get shot a handful of times a year. As more of the population moves to urban areas this will become more and more of a problem.

I don't think the price drop is permanent, just another cycle in the market. If I hadn't just bought a new house I would be expanding my collection. These really are salad days for anything firearm related, I think we will look back in a few years and wish prices were so low.

Funny the reason I was out of the market for a few years was I bought a new house. Maybe I’ll get lucky and hk sear will drop in to the lower 20’s and I’ll be able to pick one up

Here are some reasons I think the market may have seen decreased buyers.

Shooters are more informed plus the game has kind of changed.  People want to look like John Wick out there running and gunning with a Gucci tricked out AR rifle.  Don't need a full auto for that.

For the money you would have in a Sten gun you could have a awesome AR-15 or other firearm with a great optic. lights, ect.

The Binary triggers for the dirt shooters give them close to the feel without the expense.

Lastly 3D printing and the wide availability of information has made it where people can machine or 3D print some parts the ATF would have some heartburn about.  I would never do it but the information is out there.  There are people that are going to get the "Full Auto" bug out of their system then destroy the parts.   Thus they never decide to go through the process.

Lots of good points. #6 and #7 esp for me - I'd love to have one at $3k but I'm not making the jump to $10k. Instead, I went with NVGs and thermal, and still came out less expensive than a single "low-end" MG. I can use my gear with any gun, and I can use it weekly. Hog hunting is blowing up around here with the advent of quality, affordable thermal scopes.
Is the night vision arena growing overall? Seems like it to me, which says there's still money being spent, but for whatever reason maybe it's moving away from MGs to some extent. I'm not any kind of expert on this stuff, obviously.

Two other quick things - we definitely are not in a recession right now. For anyone who believes prices will move with a recession, you may want to plan accordingly. I don't know the MG market but the economics stuff is what I do for a living. I wouldn't even say "we're due", really. Just a point, if anyone is planning purchases or sales with that factor weighing heavily in the decision making process.

Last one, re: your trust - you can file on a trust with yourself as sole beneficiary using just your prints, then once Form 4 is approved you can add individuals to the trust via amendment w/out needing to send in fingerprint cards for them. If I'm understanding your dilemma correctly I thought this might help.

I agree with alot of this and although I don't own a MG, I have fired a good amount, them and honestly, outside of a 240 or MG3,  they really don't do anything for me.  for about 10 percent the price of an FA you can get a pretty damn nice rifle, that outclasses a rack grade M4 in all areas except Rate of fire.

I think overall, the shooting culture has sort of changed a bit since surplus/bulk ammo has become a thing of the past.  I think there is a natural movement towards aimed/precision fire over just dumping ammo into a hillside. stuff like 3 gun seems to be more popular than Mg Shoots these days.

I think that things like night vision and thermal open up a whole new dynamic to shooting that is pretty damn fun.

Also, while I would not recommend anybody break the law, the disposable nature of something like a swift link pretty much allows anybody to have a FA on demand and dispose of when done shooting.

Overall I think that MG's will always command a significant premium as there are really not many out there considering the amount of people that would be interested in having one

LoL

We could be Friends...

I think that there’s been some settling in the M16 and AK market, but they are still very high, as are HK pattern guns. I think the softness is in sub guns and some of the more “one trick” centerfire riflle caliber weapons like the AC556. The Uzi, Sten, Stemple, Sterling are all suffering due to the lack of modularity, which is why Macs are largely stable if not rising (albeit slowly) right now. The Mac modularity stomped other sub guns in the sense that buyers know they can get a registered receiver, made of steel and easily serviced/repaired, and convert it to a drum fed or even a centerfire rifle caliber relatively easily, making the systems more versatile, but also more marketable in the future.  I love Uzis and Stens, but they are wha they are, which is to say lacking in versatility. The ingenuity that had gone into the Macs is amazing and appears to buyers used to the modularity of the AR platform.

I added 3 Macs to the safe last year for about $6K each. My reasoning was that if they hit $10K in the next decade, it’d be easier to move them versus a $22K converted colt. I still plan on buying an Uzi and a M16, but will wait for prices to settle.

Two M11s can almost get you a non-colt RR right now.

subguns:
$6k+ for a mac-11 or open bolt tube gun w/ shit trigger, shit sights, shit stock, ok to shit mags, and heavy
$8-12k mac+lage or an uzi or a beretta 38x and maybe fix half those problems
$15k+ for an AR lower for something not obsolete (and risk damaging it in 9mm)
$25+k for a mp5 FA, about the only "excellent for modern use" transferable smg

OR

$3k for a tricked out semi 9mm PCC/semi-mp5/B&T with easy mount optics, rails/custom-ability, good mags, premium triggers (or binary options) that most people can empty mags out of at ~1/3-1/2 as fast as the real deal (just as fast w binary).  SBR or brace options.

Basically you have to be into SMG for the history (wealthy collector type) or have gotten it when prices were 1/2 or less.
On that note, id love a beretta 38

I think your prices are quite low.

Congratulations. You did quite good. I went to a shoot today. With a guy who has several machine guns. One of them which was a B&G bolt installed in an IMI model B, Uzi. . He was having trouble with it. I looked closely at the bolt. And saw the G stamped in it. And then I started remembering about how those Group Industries bolts. Could be out of spec ever-so-slightly and cause problems. . You will be much happier. With your registered receiver. That is my first. Machine gun, IMI open bolt Uzi. Was out shooting it today as well. I paid $6,850 for it. In 2012. That one I can come out ahead by Olympic M16. I'll probably be even. And my valmet m78 I'm underwater. But hey, I wanted it I saved up for it. And I got it. .
The same guy had a Port Said Swedish K on a Wilson tube. That was nice and smooth. . Now I know why the Swede K's sell so quickly. I shot that possibility as smooth as my Uzi. He had a PAWS Sterling as well but I wasn't nearly as impressed.
Sorry for the choppiness speak to text.

There's just something about an Uzi that makes me smile. Maybe someday... or tomorrow if I decide that I don't have to bother paying for my car.

Maybe, I haven't looked too hard, but the point still stands especially when I'm giving the best case scenario MG prices (motivated instate private seller, needs TLC) along with a pretty high price for the semi PCC (brand spanking new b&t + an optic, an SP5, gamered up AR platform)

Agree that your prices are low, but your points are good. My position on the subject is that collectors are focusing allot on versatility which is either your registered lower receiver (M4/M16) at a base cost of $18K or a Mac, which is iffy in stock configuration, but no one leaves them that way and the options are getting more and more interesting. I would like to own a MP5 but also know that they’re very unlikely to drop below $30K. That said, I’m willing to see if someone makes a delayed blowback upper for one of my Macs.

we have been in a slump for a year or so.

Some prices have slipped, some have stayed the same, while others have raised.

About a yr ago I picked up a 2nd Uzi, I placed a low bid on a MINT RR w/45 kit its beautiful. It the price dips Ill still be happy.

That said now is a good time to look at what MGs you have and if they are still fun.
I put some of my Guns on a "hot list" if you will, and if I find a deal on a better MG they might have to go.

I will own a M60 one day, Looking for deals on a M3 GG, AUG, or Ak.

But there are some I will die with. My Colt m16, HK sear, Sten, and Vector Uzi.

I like my 10/45 in stock form. Quick but not too fast like the M11s

I keep mine mostly stock. I swap out the wire frame stock for the oak wood stock and have a 2nd upper with a red dot sight. For storage in the safe it is in OEM state.

The M10/45 is really the best in terms of stock configuration due to the relatively low rate of fire. It's the last on my list to modify, though I'm considering turning it into a 5.56 cal using the Lage kit.  The M11/9 and M11/.380 are much better guns with aftermarket uppers and slow-fire bolts, though I admit that the the .380 is pretty darn fun to mag dump at its natural ROF.

My money is on the fact that you can get an 07 FFL with a $500/yr SOT faster than you can get an E-filed form 1 approved.

Average auto-sear price $20,000 can be used in basically one host of firearms AR15

Or

Pay $500/yr for 40yrs and build anything from cheap Stens to Miniguns and get suppressors in days that you can still transfer to yourself for $200 and use while you wait for stamp approval.

Not even adding the fact that MG's besides C&R are banned in some states so an SOT is a must.

I think a portion of the slump we’re seeing is combination of The relatively recent MAC capability expansion and the availability of delayed blowback in ARs. MACs have gotten super versatile (.22LR, 9mm and/or .45 in stick or drum mag, and now 5.56) and are extremely well supported. Now ARs can shoot just about any pistol caliber with the near finesse of MP5s using easily installed and acquired radial delayed bolts/barrels.

For new blood coming into the machine gun world, the choice was always do you want a subgun-only (MAC/Sten/Uzi/etc...), an automatic rifle with mediocre subgun options (M16/DIAS/RLL), or something that does everything great (HK).

I think the MAC and AR15 expanded capabilities are really turning common options that were for the shooter into options more for just the collector (Uzi/Sten/AC556/Thompson/HKs). Those prices are going to stagnate a bit because of that

Certainly plays into it some. Once MGs hit a certain price people become willing to deal with the headache of running a part time business to get the toys they desire and are willing to spend $500 up to several thousand per year in fees to buy/build MGs.

1) I think the internet and youtube really brought to light the fact that civilians can own MGs, in the 90s I was always told MGs were illegal and could not be owned, it was bad info from local gun shops and gun shows. That gave the prices of MGs a massive spike in the early 2000s but that has since leveled off.
2) there was a big jump in sales in tactical-ish firearms in general once the AWB was off the books back in 2004. There is a strong possibility that the first 10+ years after that were firearm owners playing catch up and now the firearms market is cooling off now that the demand has been met, to the point of there seems to be a surplus in the market.

If there was a step by step, I’d do it this week.

I just paid for a Sterling MK V.

ffl123 breaks it down barney style.

feel free to PM me if you have questions.

What DIAS are only $20K now, point me in the right direction. I think you're about $10K low with that estimate sir.

You are correct, I wanted to stay on the low side to really drive home the point... I just ran a demo the other day using 4 3D printed auto-sears in standard AR's, melted them into a gooey mess after.

Quite LOL!  They are more wishful thinking.  Not saying deals can't be found, but they are still few and far between

I did it while drinking one night

filled out the form (intructions are on the back), added FP cards and a check.

1.5 months later a ATF IO called, set up a appt and went over the handbook and some state stuff, got the FFL yesterday.

The local permit was a PITA as well as setting up taxes, but the process was amazingly easy, like too easy.

Ill get my SOT later this years after I do some normal stuff.

Its easy

Too many people are concerned about the price of machine guns dropping. If someone spent so much of their net worth on guns that they're afraid of losing money, then that person has poor financial discipline.

I hope all these machine guns drop by 80% so the average guy can experience the joy of automatic fire.

Why?

I don't think many are "concerned", more of a curiosity as to why they are down.

FWIW even if the price dropped 80% the average guy probably still couldn't afford them ($20k * 0.2 = $4k) or they would just b***h about them still being too expensive, "blah ,blah Huges Amendment is unconstitutional!" . How do I know? Because that's what people have done since 1986. People complained when a M16 was $2,000 and a AR15 was $1,000 and they have been watching the prices rise all the way to $20,000 complaining the whole way.

My recommendation to anyone on the fence is take advantage of the dip and buy now if you can. Do whatever it takes, sell some semi-autos, donate plasma, deliver pizzas on the weekends, etc... Even if its a Mac or a Sten, just get your foot in the door of MG ownership.

No one has a crystal ball, MGs could go up in value, down, or out right banned at the state or even the federal level, or the Huges Amendment could get repealed. Regardless of what happens I'm thankful I bought my MGs as I'm one of only a small number of Americans who can legally shoot a MGs anytime I want and enjoy the 2A to the fullest.

Meh.  I bought a BRP STG-34k in October.  I knew full well they depreciate because they are still making them since there are still registered but not built stemple tubes.  I don't plan to sell and they are so overbuilt I don't expect it to wear out.  I got 2 barrels, 2 bolts, extra sears and ejectors.

I just wanted to own a machine gun and really wasn't concerned how "collectable" it might be.  I wanted something to shoot for the rest of my years.

Agreed. I bought my M10 less than 2 years ago. Bought it to shoot. I’m one of the poors too. YMMV.

You'll enjoy that BRP. I've had mine about 6 years and my friends prefer to shoot it when put alongside some others.

Your last point was my point — I don’t care about the history (nor did I get any of mine for half-price). And I was referring to depreciating semis.

This is probably mainly it. Look at Colt. Suspended commercial rifle sales and shifted full production to FMS contracts until their channel clears. Despite a month or so of panic buying and lower volume less popular items drying up, the channel still hasn't cleared, and they're indicating they won't resume commercial sales till end of year.

When a major manufacturer can suspend commercial sales for 12-14 months to work on military contracts and existing channel inventory is sufficient to last through most of that, that is a SOFT-ass market.

I asked more out of curiosity for sure. And I plan to continue to take advantage first this Uzi now I am keeping a watchful eye out to see what I could scoop up for 10k or so.

I got my first 2 mg 7 years ago they have more than doubled in price. even  if they went to zero I would still be happy I owned them. I did not buy them purposely for investment savings. But if it works out that way great.

Double post

well besides the future political issues, it comes down to wealth per generation...  saw some recent numbers on a per capita basis at the same age compared across generations.  Gen X has little less than half the wealth of baby boomers and Millennials have a little less than half the wealth of Gen X.  Again, at the same point in their lives adjusted for inflation.  And don't even get me started on inflation being understated for the last 20-30 years...  (although not as much as many pundits claim)

Like I predicted several years ago, all the olds who bought this stuff dirt cheap are now passing away and there isn't the demand to support it.  Some old guy kicks the bucket with 10-20 transferables he bought in the 20th century at a fraction of current prices inflation adjusted, its going to drag the market down.

I was responding to the person you quoted.  I wish it showed a quote tree instead of just the last quote.

Machine gun price guide does a pretty good job of tracking prices.

M11 Prices

Hahahaha... No it doesn't.

do you have a better tracker?

Where are these $25K MP5's you speak of?

A converted HK94 RR is probably in that price range. No where near the versatility as a sear but certainly cheaper.

This. We brokered a HK94 with a sear that was serialized to the gun and couldnt be divorced for around that much.

I got what I always wanted. that's the only reason im not buying. I always wanted a Ma Duece, but they are a lot of work, reloading for them is a whole
other level of dedication...lol  and selling a ma deuce is a pain in the ass.

Cost of ammo + difficulty to transport + limited location to shoot are just a few of the of the reasons why the transferable M2 50 cal prices have been stagnant over the years.

Someday when I'm retired and rich I will buy one, maybe mount it to a old WWII jeep.

Why would you wish for and then in invest in something that is going down in value ?
Its like buying property in a declining neighborhood or purchasing a stock in a dying company because "Its a deal".

If you want cheap cheap blasters get your class 3 FFL.

As far as prices dropping...that depends.

Some are dropping others are rising.
Its not about supply anymore (fixed since '86) its about demand.

Demand for FNC's used to be squat since "parts weren't available". Who cares they are freaking cool and the market eventually recognized that.
MACS just a few years ago were turds. Lage and the other modifiers turned that around.
Registered AR15 trigger packs were a joke recently.
Thompsons,  the former King Of The Hill, have come down a smidgen because that generation is getting older and selling off. BTW NOTHING compares to the quality and cool factor of a Thompson. Fun as hell to shoot, historic, and jaw dropping when pulled out of the case anywhere.

What worries me most is the political atmosphere not the economic one.