This is probably a dumb question, but as there are limited numbers of 416 marked semi auto lowers in the US, what would the going rate for one be?

Also, if somehow magically more were to be imported, what would you say the price for a factory new lower would be?

I appreciate the help and sorry for asking stupid questions.

Edit: I've now seen that Brownells is bringing in the parts sans lower, bbl, and bolt. I think I have a plan to get some of the semi lowers imported, waiting to hear back from the ATF now.

Edit 2: For those not yet in the know. This does NOT include the lowers.

More could be imported for government use if HK still offers them.

(Does HK still offer them?)

If that happened, and they hit the market in batches, then someone would've commercialized them on purpose, and they would be priced accordingly.

Good luck with your search.

Here's a little primer on the semi-auto (HK 416 D SF) factory guns if you want to get into the weeds of it:

http://www.hkpro.com/forum/hk416-hk417-hq/432810-semi-auto-416-civilian-ownership-faq.html

The meat of it is, however, that the prices on the open market are up near transferable prices, making it worth it to probably just buy an RDIAS and stuck it in an MR556 lower than to buy a 416 D SF lower if you're wanting the functionality. The 416 D SFs are basically collectors' items, strongly disincentivizing most from actually using them as anything more than a show piece. If you're an HK fanatic with deep pockets, maybe it's worth it to you, but frankly and honestly, the 416 D SF lowers are no different from an MR556 lower other than markings, possibly a matching serial number upper if you're willing to pay for that.

As far as more of them becoming "magically available," it's unlikely--HK has revised their end-user agreements to make transferring them to the civilian market even more difficult than it was when these became available, and importing them for the purposes of civilian resale would obviously be illegal, and while legally the burden "should" be on ATF/HK to prove otherwise, the reality is that that is simply not the case, the burden of proof is on you trying sell/acquire/transfer these items before they will be allowed to go forward. Moreover, because of the ass pain involved in trying to transfer the lowers, many folks who have HK416s available, whether SF or not, will choose rather to cut up the lowers into parts kits, as the other parts can still bring a chunk of change, to the point where it's harder even to get a post-sample HK416 if you have an SOT, because a cut up HK416 parts kit will often bring more on the commercial market than a complete postie.

Other means, such as importing receivers from (e.g.,) Zib Militaria or other sources is a non-starter as well, as those parts cannot be imported, even if they don't have a serial number, plenty of folks have tried. The best bet is frankly and honestly to either start with an MR556 lower or a 80%er. The only other option is the one that was just announced today, that Brownell's is looking to import blank forgings from Germany, and may start machining them into lowers (or at least easier to work with 80%ers than the CNC Guns offerings, which are frankly more like 60%ers), but who knows how long that will take and what they may cost, and/or what configurations/markings they may put on them, not to mention, that they, like any other 80% build, will not be "authentic" insofar as having been machined in the same way/processes/specs as the originals in the factory.

~Augee

One just went for $12K

Brownells is importing the semi HK lowers now
from what I understand they are bringing them in from HK as 80% a making them.  Also selling demilled kits

Cool part is they are going to sell with match number uppers

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2018/03/15/breaking-brownells-hk-416-parts/

Interesting, thinking I should sell one of my 416 uppers before the price bottoms out.

@renegadex

Where did you see this?

If Brownells brings in real HK lowers, your 416 will sky rocket in price.

I know I would.

They are being in uppers also.

PM from someone who bought one. Prices are all over. Started at $1500, then a dozen at $10K, then auctions at $12K to as high as $25K.

Without BBLs. See pic above.

Yea if HK was smart the would sell those.  Then again a 416 pistol would sell well also.

Brownell's is not bringing in lowers, without getting into the nitty-gritty, there's not really a legal way to bring them in. You can argue this and that, but the long and the short of it is that Brownell's isn't the first to attempt importing some of these parts, and many of them already have been--just not lowers.

What Brownell's is getting is all the other parts... minus barrels and bolts, as well as 0% lower forgings, which, at this point, are just chunks of aluminum. They have not made an official statement about what they plan to do with them, though the most likely options are that they will mill them either into complete lowers, or into 80% lowers, possibly both.

As for "what will this do to the HK416 market?" probably not that much, other than put more parts into circulation--consider this: the parts kits that are being imported are being sold by Zib Militaria for 1.990 Euros, which translates to ~$2,449 USD. Brownell's is almost certainly getting some sort of bulk discount/deal on them, but consider this:

Brownell's now has to have them shipped to the UK, disassemble all the lower parts, destroy, store, or resell the receivers overseas, then go through all the import paperwork/headaches to bring the parts into the U.S. Given that amount of labor, with a good bit of capital being tied up for several months at least before profits can be realized, what do you think they will need to re-sell them for to make a profit?

A $2,450 (which assumes that Brownell's will sell them for nearly exactly the price Zib is offering them for, which I find unlikely) HK416 parts kit without the barrel, bolt, or lower receiver isn't really "a deal," consider that the market for:

Used AF-date coded parts kits (less lower) is around $3,000-$3,500

MR556s complete rifles is around $2,300-$2,700

Given that the "big thing" that makes HK416 uppers valuable is really, frankly, the chrome lined barrels, which Brownell's is not getting with these parts kits, it's unlikely that the Brownell's parts are going to have any significant impact on the HK416 upper market. More likely, they'll simply produce their own HK416-compatible barrels which, on the one hand, will be a boon to those who want something that looks like an HK416, but won't really affect those who want an authentic German chrome lined barrel.

Importing parts isn't rocket science, but it is a pain in the ass that ties up a lot of money before investments can be realized, that's why not that many folks do it, and those that do understand that it's an expensive process only really pursued if you have both the liquid capital to invest, and a great deal of patience.

I'm happy to see that parts will be a little bit more available, but I don't really see this having much of an affect on the market of already existing HK416 parts/uppers, though it will be a boon to those who want to "clone" an HK416, in fact, I'm less excited about the parts that they're going to be importing, than in the fact that importing these parts essentially guarantees that U.S. manufacturers will respond with more HK416 replacement barrel options, and possibly even be motivated to look into more interesting developments like 300 BLK barrels.

~Augee

These appear to be more than 0%. I bet they could get $1000 for them

I just saw that Brownells is importing the parts kits, fml so much for that idea.

Edit: I now see that it doesn't include the lowers, I may have figured out how to import them too.

Edit 2: I've fired off an email to the ATF's importation division outlining my plan to see if it would fly. Here's hoping they respond this year.

What percent would you suggest we use to refer to a blank receiver forging with 0% of the machine work done to make it into a firearm receiver?

I think they can make a pretty penny, but I think $1,000 will likely be pushing it, unless you're talking about complete lower-halves here. CNC Guns sold a billet "80%" (as I mentioned, more like a 60%--and you more or less needed his jig to finish it for ~$400, and while they sell, I don't think they're blowing out. Meanwhile, MR556 complete lower halves have been hovering around $1,250-$1,500 lately.

A "true" 80% would probably sell like hotcakes, especially with actual HK forgings--but I could also see HK coming down hard on that, maybe not on Brownell's, but I could see lots of small engraving shops getting "cease and desists" for doing HK-style trade dress on receivers.

To be honest, I would bet the "best" way for Brownell's to monetize them would be to finish them 100% and just put minimal markings on (say in front of the magwell where the "Warning" markings usually are) and sell them that way, probably very expensively, but again, I doubt there would be too many buyers at $1,000.

I think Brownell's probably needs to think long and hard about where to price these, though--in order to realize enough of a profit, they'll essentially need to sell them for less than the price of modifying an MR556, otherwise people are more likely to go that route, and they'll be relegated to selling spare parts piece by piece, which could potentially bring more profit, but will take a longer time to get there. Moreover, with Columbus production of MR556s and MR762s starting to step up, it uncertain what the prices/markets for those rifles will start looking like. A best case scenario might be if Brownell's is able to work out a deal with HK USA for OEM bolts and chrome lined barrels, which would be a hell of a win for the U.S. market, but then they'll need to keep on HK's good side however they decide to resell these parts.

~Augee

A forging as I posted pic is usually considered a 40% complete.

By whom?

Obviously "0%," "40%," etc., aren't really legal definitions anyways, so you're entitled to refer to it as whatever you like, but I've never heard of a raw, unmachined forging referred to as anything other than a 0%, because, as I mentioned--0% of the machining operations have been completed.

I know that some retailers have sardonically sold blank blocks of aluminum as 0% billet receivers, so I could see a billet lower machined in the general shape of an AR lower being considered a "40%," but billet receivers and forged receivers are different things.

https://onlylongrange.com/forged-0-223-lower-receiver/
http://smithcustomsales.com/?product=ar-lower-0-forging
https://davidsondefense.com/cerro-forge-7075-t6-aircraft-aluminum-0-forging-308-lower-receiver-highest-quality/
https://www.atomicengraving.com/product/ar15-0-forged-lower-receiver/
http://www.cncguns.com/forum/index.php?topic=2770.0
http://firearmsdesigner.com/machining-an-ar-15-lower-receiver-from-a-raw-0-forging/

::shrug::

I mean, it's not that big of a deal what you want to call it, the point being--they're raw forgings with no machining done to them.

~Augee

By folks in the industry who take rectangular blocks of aluminum (0%) and turn them into completed receivers (100%).

You mean by folks in the industry who make billet lowers?

These are not billet lowers.

~Augee

Nope. Matters not how they got to that state, they are still referred to as 40%. Just like 80% are called 80% whether forged, machined, cast, carved, etc

I am just not invested enough in what made-up percentage unmachined forgings are to continue arguing about this.

Can we simply agree that they are raw forgings that may one day become lowers, but not without a good bit of machine work?

~Augee

Me neither till I went to buy them and that is how they were described to me. I was also offered a 20% and of course a 0%. This was long before 80% was common. And like many others, I have seen 80% lowers in various degrees of finish over the years. So it is not exactly a technical term.

Meh. Brownells already said they wont be finishing the forgings with HKs markings, so to me, the desirability is lost. Just a Brownells lower.

They don't have to sell them with HK markings (which obviously would require HK's blessing) to make tons of money.

I agree with Augee their next best option would be to sell them with minimal markings (like Nodak Spud does) maybe underneath by the trigger hole, or inside the rim of the mag well. That way people can add their own cool engraving.

They could also market them as non-firearms. I would do both.

$13K current bid

https://www.gunbroker.com/item/753627866

Kinda want

Opps I bid. Wife gonna be angry

$17,300 ouch

For those that didn't see those HK forgings on  Zib before Brownell's snagged them, they were being sold for 59. I would think a profit would be easy to make even if offered as 80% lowers.

up for sale Friday to Brownell's edge members

Is this reacting to the $3500 price tag on the HK417 kits? (the same price as an MR762 that actually has a barrel and receiver)

Yeah. If HK webshop had their 16" MR762 barrels in stock, and MR762 bolts, I wouldn't be so confused. I think Brownells is hoping to capitalize on the "only 200 available" other than the Gen 1 gas block, I don't see much to get excited about.

416 parts kits on the way

Current Hk416 parts at Brownells.

**

Brownells codes

$20 off $200 code VCL ,

$40 off $400 code 2AB ,

$70 off $600 code 2AC

all are free shipping as well.

Yeah file me in the "what's the point?" camp. Why not just buy a MR556?
It's more options at least with this,so why not I suppose.