Update
BLUF: Corrosion.
Well, this is a horrible admission and I was just going to let this thread die a cowardly death, but an explanation is owed... sorry for the length.
I talked to a guy at work who was an M14/M1A armorer. He said that without seeing it, he could speculate on two most probable problems:
1. Bent trigger pin, but said this seemed unlikely because it was shooting fine earlier.
2. Bolt wasn't fully locked forward.
So I went home, put a spent round in the chamber and released the bolt. Looked good, trigger was heavy, but not as heavy as before. Repeated it a couple times, same heavy. Dry fire, no problem. Measured the amount of lug showing (with a micrometer) with a spent round in the chamber against the lug seating in my other Garand. Tiny difference, not good.
Then I looked in the chamber with a bore light and realized I was an idiot. The shoulder of the chamber was grey and green. I had failed to thoroughly clean after coming back last time and I'd inadvertently used some 1942 ammo. Corrosion.
I have about 10K rounds of M1 food from 1941 to 1972 (inherited). I have all the corrosive primer stuff set aside in several marked cans. The last time I came back from my stash in Washington State, I brought back a small can (have to keep it under 40lbs on Alaska Air) with a mixed lot of three bandoliers. I didn't even check the head stamps. Went to the range, fired ~32 just to show a friend I could still hit decently at 100yds, brought it back, quick wipe down and a brush through the barrel and put it away to be brought out a couple months later and encounter my f'up. I checked the brass for that day, sure enough, 1942s and a couple '43s.
So I cleaned it thoroughly, worked carefully on the shoulder inside, told my wife I was going in the basement to check the trigger pull with a blank, assumed she could extrapolate that that would mean a big boom was coming, and endured her unhappiness for the next thirty minutes or so.
And the trigger pulled through nice and smooth with a crisp break. Going to the range on Monday just to be sure. I get the Big Idiot Award for not checking the head stamps, not cleaning it thoroughly, and not ensuring it was fully locked before firing. Lucky it seated as far as it did; bolt in the face would suck. Took it apart and did the soap and water wash down. All clean now.
Sorry to have wasted your time on this, thank you for all the replies and advice. I'm sad that I had to remind myself the hard way to always check the *^$*!ing head stamp dates.