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At that temp, it's how much lube you have freezing everything together.
An AR, AK, or M1 would have no clear advantages.
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I recall reading about German soldiers on the eastern front in WW2 having considerable difficulties with their weapons freezing up with all variety of desperate measures being taken to keep them operating. Very romantic the idea of sleeping with your rifle in a sleeping bag just to keep it functional, wouldn’t wanna have to do it with an MG42. My guess is that between the lower pressure and the lube in the recoil springs gumming up you would probably have issues with an AUG cycling.
From that perspective I would expect an AR or AK to have the advantage as for both they would be easier to remove the oil from various moving parts. Can’t very well go removing the AUG thrust caps in the field to clean off all the lube.
From there you would need to know the T
g or glassy transition temperature for the various polymers used in the AUG. There are standards for measuring the brittleness temperature of various plastics under specific conditions and my guess is that Steyr has all that info, it’s just a matter of figuring out how to get it from them.
My feeling is that the AK has the upper hand for any extreme cold in that all the most relevant bits are made of and held together by metal. You break a plastic grip on an AR and the selector detent thing falls out you have a minor problem that isn’t really gonna happen with an AK. I’m sure that military issue M4s are made out of particular polymers however it’s anybody’s guess what a lot of cheaper commercial stock sets are molded from. Several years back I had the butt stock on a PTR break in half in cold weather not even doing anything rough, went with real HK furniture after that.
I guess if you wanted to make an “Arctic AUG” a first step would be a 2020 Precision hammer pack as I believe it is made entirely of metal. From there I would probably remove the thrust caps and lube the recoil springs with something known to be good at low temp. I would also look at getting a stock that only has a right hand ejection port as that little plastic cover on the ambi ejection port stocks seems like it would be a weak point.