User Panel
Posted: 11/11/2020 10:31:03 PM EDT
I’m curious if anyone here is actually working at an ammo manufacturing company and can speak to what’s going on behind the scenes of the empty shelves
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Other threads discussing this already.
Basically a huge backlog of orders that they can't keep up with. Supply issue is and always will be primers as there are only a couple companies who produce them and it is to expensive and takes forever for a new company to start up. |
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I just made 53 rounds of 30-06 for my m1 last night.
Would have made more, but I had other stuff come up. |
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Consider that most plants ie Federal in Anoka MN have finite resources ie equipment and space. So just like they do not ramp up to make more rimfire...their machines are booked. After the beginning of the Trump Slump Federal backed down their production as they had bet on HRC. And, they took a 600 Million Dollar Charge Off.... So they backed Centerfire down to 40 hr week from running 12 hr shifts 7 days a week. Then things picked up and they were back to 12 hr shifts 7 days a week.
Hornady has suspended production of some SKU's or are only offering the smaller package of some items. By suspending some SKU's they can let machines run longer on more popular SKU's. Remember there are 5 million new gun owners. They want ammo, too. Not like places do not want to sell ammo...there just is not any to sell. Demand has out stripped production capacity. I like to ponder things Back in 2003 you could walk into Galyans (Dicks bought them out a while back). WW Value packs of 9MM (100ct) were right about 100 bucks for case of 1000. 3131A 20 Ct boxes of 55gr FMJ was $150 a case. |
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Quoted: Consider that most plants ie Federal in Anoka MN have finite resources ie equipment and space. So just like they do not ramp up to make more rimfire...their machines are booked. After the beginning of the Trump Slump Federal backed down their production as they had bet on HRC. And, they took a 600 Million Dollar Charge Off.... So they backed Centerfire down to 40 hr week from running 12 hr shifts 7 days a week. Then things picked up and they were back to 12 hr shifts 7 days a week. Hornady has suspended production of some SKU's or are only offering the smaller package of some items. By suspending some SKU's they can let machines run longer on more popular SKU's. Remember there are 5 million new gun owners. They want ammo, too. Not like places do not want to sell ammo...there just is not any to sell. Demand has out stripped production capacity. I like to ponder things Back in 2003 you could walk into Galyans (Dicks bought them out a while back). WW Value packs of 9MM (100ct) were right about 100 bucks for case of 1000. 3131A 20 Ct boxes of 55gr FMJ was $150 a case. View Quote That’s an interesting point about cutting SKUs. Makes sense. But also probably feeds into the frenzy because most product lines will remain out of stock if they are only making the highest demand lines...and this lack of diversity keeps everyone in panic mode indefinitely which leads to even more panic buying of the few popular SKUs being produced.... |
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The difference from this panic vs the Obama panic(s) is that I haven't heard of the Gov't buying up huge amounts of ammo and keeping it from hitting the market. My hope is that production will catch up to demand sooner because of that. That said, it looks like the gun-grabbers will win the White House so demand is going to remain very high. Just wait until they're in and announce their intentions to ban/limit everything gun related...then the 'less informed' gun owners will join the panic and shelves will be empty for a very long time.
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Quoted: Consider that most plants ie Federal in Anoka MN have finite resources ie equipment and space. So just like they do not ramp up to make more rimfire...(snip)..... Remember there are 5 million new gun owners. They want ammo, too........ View Quote I don’t think people really understand the impact of this. Obviously if all of those 5 million people bought 1 50rd box, that’s 250 million rounds. And that’s if no one else bought any, which obviously not the case, and all those new people only bought a little, which is also likely not the case. By way of comparison the Army contract for M855A1 was something like 300 million rounds. Meanwhile, hunting season is just getting started and a lot of those folks are buying ammo right now as well(what they can find at least). Quite frankly, a lot of this crowd are apparently completely oblivious, and are in total shock that they can’t just go buy a box of whatever they use. So, now they’re panic buying as well. I work part time in a small LGS as their gunsmith. I’ve seen it first hand there. We sold like 30k rounds in 3-4 days a couple weeks ago(some russian ammo that was backordered came in), not counting the smaller box or two sales. There’s an enormous demand for ammunition right now. Its bigger than anything we’ve seen before. I’d be curious to compare the production now to military production back in WWII. Until it tapers off some we’re going to have shortages. There’s no way the manufacturers can keep up with this. Its just too much. And between the shortage itself(which is causing panic buying itself), and the continuation of the events that caused it in the first place, I don’t see it ending any time soon. I’d say start reloading, but there’s no primers either! |
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I think some manufacturers may be reluctant to add production capacity (big investment) because if the new biden admin carries through with all the bans, including banning internet sales, the demand may crash again. Eventually, all the new gun owners will get their 1 box of ammo and put everything in a drawer. I just hope we get a little bit of "normalcy" before biden's gun and ammo bans start the panic up again.
We will be lucky to survive the next 4 years without major ugly changes to gun/ammo laws. |
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Quoted: That’s an interesting point about cutting SKUs. Makes sense. But also probably feeds into the frenzy because most product lines will remain out of stock if they are only making the highest demand lines...and this lack of diversity keeps everyone in panic mode indefinitely which leads to even more panic buying of the few popular SKUs being produced.... View Quote Some limited demand calibers have always had a limited production run every year. When it hots your distributors, you jump on it and order what you think you need to get through to the next production run. Or you order another brands product to get you through the dry spell of your preferred brand. I'm always amazed by the people who wander through the door and say " My ( insert make and model of gun ) prefers ( insert brand and type of ammo here)." That's all fine and dandy, but if your gun is that ammo-sensitive, its on you to stock up on that brand and ammo type when its plentiful Don't think after ten months of panic buying that you can wander in a week or two before gun season and act perplexed that the stuff you want isn't readily available. Then you get the guys who buy a gun during the panic season and want to buy a variety of ammo to run through it Sorry Charlie, but this isn't the year to do those sorts of tests. Be happy that you can find anything in your caliber of choice |
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Quoted: I don't think people really understand the impact of this. Obviously if all of those 5 million people bought 1 50rd box, that's 250 million rounds. And that's if no one else bought any, which obviously not the case, and all those new people only bought a little, which is also likely not the case. Until it tapers off some we're going to have shortages. There's no way the manufacturers can keep up with this. Its just too much. And between the shortage itself(which is causing panic buying itself), and the continuation of the events that caused it in the first place, I don't see it ending any time soon. View Quote I don't begrudge anyone for buying up ammo whenever they can find it, not for a second. But that mentality is in large part what's driving these shortages. If John Doe is worried that ammo is scarce, he's not gonna want to be the person who misses the proverbial train leaving the station. Which, in turn, further exacerbates the shortage. |
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Quoted: This hits the nail on the head. Mfgs aren't going to pony up the startup+variable costs associated with expanding plants or building new facilities; the risk is just too large. Add to that the fact that panic buying begets more panic buying and you create a pretty nasty situation. I don't begrudge anyone for buying up ammo whenever they can find it, not for a second. But that mentality is in large part what's driving these shortages. If John Doe is worried that ammo is scarce, he's not gonna want to be the person who misses the proverbial train leaving the station. Which, in turn, further exacerbates the shortage. View Quote And those mfgs took a bath after the 2016 election, when they did actually ramp up capacity and then demand dropped significantly. So I doubt they’ll do that this time. |
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CCI/Speer is pretty much running 24/7. They have been hiring people the last several months to help keep up with demand. As far as empty shelves it's simply a matter of who has more money than others.
Far as primers. They are being loaded into ammunition. More revenue from selling loaded ammo instead of components. |
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During 2018-2019, when things were slow, Winchester was running 3 shifts usually 6 days a week. Only way to increase output is to run every Saturday and add Sunday. 16-20% is the most they can increase. Of course they can speed the machines up a little, but their quality wasn't very good at normal pace. Winchester running Lake City plant will make more 5.56 available, just saw 200 round boxes of "Winchester Lake City" on Cheaper than Dirt $375, but now there will not be any Lake City produced ammo from Federal.
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Quoted: And those mfgs took a bath after the 2016 election, when they did actually ramp up capacity and then demand dropped significantly. So I doubt they’ll do that this time. View Quote Or they hoarded it in anticipation of a Hillary victory that didn't materialize and they wound up dumping the product they had stashed away. That's the scenario I support |
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Quoted: Or they hoarded it in anticipation of a Hillary victory that didn't materialize and they wound up dumping the product they had stashed away. That's the scenario I support View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: And those mfgs took a bath after the 2016 election, when they did actually ramp up capacity and then demand dropped significantly. So I doubt they’ll do that this time. Or they hoarded it in anticipation of a Hillary victory that didn't materialize and they wound up dumping the product they had stashed away. That's the scenario I support No. Any ammunition made where I work gets shipped out the door. It's the distributors that decide what and when to release. |
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Quoted: Consider that most plants ie Federal in Anoka MN have finite resources ie equipment and space. So just like they do not ramp up to make more rimfire...their machines are booked. After the beginning of the Trump Slump Federal backed down their production as they had bet on HRC. And, they took a 600 Million Dollar Charge Off.... So they backed Centerfire down to 40 hr week from running 12 hr shifts 7 days a week. Then things picked up and they were back to 12 hr shifts 7 days a week. Hornady has suspended production of some SKU's or are only offering the smaller package of some items. By suspending some SKU's they can let machines run longer on more popular SKU's. Remember there are 5 million new gun owners. They want ammo, too. Not like places do not want to sell ammo...there just is not any to sell. Demand has out stripped production capacity. I like to ponder things Back in 2003 you could walk into Galyans (Dicks bought them out a while back). WW Value packs of 9MM (100ct) were right about 100 bucks for case of 1000. 3131A 20 Ct boxes of 55gr FMJ was $150 a case. View Quote In 2005 I was buying WW value packs of 9mm at Wally World for 10.00.........watched it go through the roof............. |
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People don’t realize how much 300+ million people purchase when they want something.
Hell Victoria Secret sells $32,000,000 a day in product. If everyone went out and bought a bra tomorrow they would be gone. |
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Remember the last time this happened and such and such company said "we're adding machinery and increasing capacity to meet demand" and so forth? Yeah what happened to all of that?
Ever think some (not all) of the shortage is to keep prices high after the bottom fell out for several years straight? I know people suspected it the last time around. |
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Quoted: And my main distributor is telling me that they're getting no rimfire in any significant amount View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: No. Any ammunition made where I work gets shipped out the door. It's the distributors that decide what and when to release. And my main distributor is telling me that they're getting no rimfire in any significant amount That's sounds like BS. We're running 24/7. There have been some times we've slowed down and that is because we have a huge influx if new employees . Training them tends to slow things down. In fact we are still hiring. If you really want the low down maybe you could apply https://www.cci-ammunition.com/careers.html |
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Is Remington making anything? Ammo or guns? I just imagined they were way underwater with their suppliers and couldn’t get any raw materials on credit. I have not seen any Remington ammo on the shelf for a year, pre dating the COVID/ election panic.
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Quoted: Is Remington making anything? Ammo or guns? I just imagined they were way underwater with their suppliers and couldn’t get any raw materials on credit. I have not seen any Remington ammo on the shelf for a year, pre dating the COVID/ election panic. View Quote Federal/CCI just purchased the entire Remington plant in Alabama in October. They will start cranking out primers and UMC/military 5.56/9mm ammo by next year. This is a huge acquisition and win for Federal/CCI (Vista Outdoors). |
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I bought remington 9mm at Academy two weeks ago and they had buckets of golden bullets one day last week, my son got some.
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The part I don't understand is how slow the secondary market is. People wait in line to give Wal-Mart $1/rd for 9mm or 5.56mm, but ammunition languishes in the EE for the same price?
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Quoted: The part I don't understand is how slow the secondary market is. People wait in line to give Wal-Mart $1/rd for 9mm or 5.56mm, but ammunition languishes in the EE for the same price? View Quote You have a rough idea of how ammo has been treated by retail, and you have recourse if it's bad. With secondary sales, none of that is available. |
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Quoted: The part I don't understand is how slow the secondary market is. People wait in line to give Wal-Mart $1/rd for 9mm or 5.56mm, but ammunition languishes in the EE for the same price? View Quote Walmart hasn't had pistol or evil black rifle ammo in months. I'm in rural se Kansas and my local Walmart is getting rid of all guns (cept for 50 cal black powder) and all ammo. They had no guns left and some 17 hmr and 7mm, maybe 4 boxes of each. I'm not sure why they're getting rid of that stuff here unless they think liability suits will become common place. |
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Quoted: Walmart hasn't had pistol or evil black rifle ammo in months. I'm in rural se Kansas and my local Walmart is getting rid of all guns (cept for 50 cal black powder) and all ammo. They had no guns left and some 17 hmr and 7mm, maybe 4 boxes of each. I'm not sure why they're getting rid of that stuff here unless they think liability suits will become common place. View Quote They bowed down to the gun grabbers a while back when someone came into a WM in Texas and shot the place up. They've pulled everything that can be shot out of a semi-automatic. Linky |
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I've been to Sierra Bullet and talked to them about it (workers, not reps).
It's supply v demand. Nothing more. |
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Quoted: The difference from this panic vs the Obama panic(s) is that I haven't heard of the Gov't buying up huge amounts of ammo and keeping it from hitting the market. My hope is that production will catch up to demand sooner because of that. That said, it looks like the gun-grabbers will win the White House so demand is going to remain very high. Just wait until they're in and announce their intentions to ban/limit everything gun related...then the 'less informed' gun owners will join the panic and shelves will be empty for a very long time. View Quote Ah yes the DHS ammo contract hoax has come back again I see... |
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Yeah it's basically a snowball effect and perfect storm and now that people think it's hard to get they will buy anything they see.
Stock might catch up in a year and price might slightly in 2. |
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Quoted: Walmart hasn't had pistol or evil black rifle ammo in months. I'm in rural se Kansas and my local Walmart is getting rid of all guns (cept for 50 cal black powder) and all ammo. They had no guns left and some 17 hmr and 7mm, maybe 4 boxes of each. I'm not sure why they're getting rid of that stuff here unless they think liability suits will become common place. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: The part I don't understand is how slow the secondary market is. People wait in line to give Wal-Mart $1/rd for 9mm or 5.56mm, but ammunition languishes in the EE for the same price? Walmart hasn't had pistol or evil black rifle ammo in months. I'm in rural se Kansas and my local Walmart is getting rid of all guns (cept for 50 cal black powder) and all ammo. They had no guns left and some 17 hmr and 7mm, maybe 4 boxes of each. I'm not sure why they're getting rid of that stuff here unless they think liability suits will become common place. I don't think that is them getting out of gun sales. More likely that people are buying all of the guns and ammo and they haven't been able to get a new shipment of ammo and guns in yet. |
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Quoted: The part I don't understand is how slow the secondary market is. People wait in line to give Wal-Mart $1/rd for 9mm or 5.56mm, but ammunition languishes in the EE for the same price? View Quote Agreed. There is no ammo or primer shortage. The auction sites like GB are full. GB has 80 pages of 5.56 alone, a lot with no reserve and zero bids or guys bidding a penny. People who can’t find ammo just arent looking. You won’t find it locally. |
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Quoted: There is no ammo or primer shortage. The auction sites like GB are full. GB has 80 pages of 5.56 alone, a lot with no reserve and zero bids or guys bidding a penny. People who can’t find ammo just arent looking. You won’t find it locally. View Quote Someone should tell the distributors there's no shortages, because it's impossible to order anything through them |
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Quoted: Someone should tell the distributors there's no shortages, because it's impossible to order anything through them View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: There is no ammo or primer shortage. The auction sites like GB are full. GB has 80 pages of 5.56 alone, a lot with no reserve and zero bids or guys bidding a penny. People who can’t find ammo just arent looking. You won’t find it locally. Someone should tell the distributors there's no shortages, because it's impossible to order anything through them It’s all sitting on gunbroker. There are dealers on there with the same advertisement for 1k large rifle primers...30+ times. Repeat for powder...brass...ammo... |
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Quoted: It’s all sitting on gunbroker. There are dealers on there with the same advertisement for 1k large rifle primers...30+ times. Repeat for powder...brass...ammo... View Quote That's fine, but it had to filter down through the distributors at some point, and they've been allocating everything for ten months now. If there's no shortages then the distributors should be able to fill my ten months of back orders in no time at all |
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Quoted: That's fine, but it had to filter down through the distributors at some point, and they've been allocating everything for ten months now. If there's no shortages then the distributors should be able to fill my ten months of back orders in no time at all View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: It’s all sitting on gunbroker. There are dealers on there with the same advertisement for 1k large rifle primers...30+ times. Repeat for powder...brass...ammo... That's fine, but it had to filter down through the distributors at some point, and they've been allocating everything for ten months now. If there's no shortages then the distributors should be able to fill my ten months of back orders in no time at all Have you tried calling the manufacturers and ordering direct from them? Before this craziness CCI/Speer were selling direct to smaller shops. That way the smaller shops weren't beholden to the distributers. Just a thought. |
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I see 150ct boxes of Winchester M193 and M855 with LC brass at Cabelas and Bass Pro for $75 every few weeks. Usually 100 boxes at a time with a 2-5 box limit. So there is SOME but stopping by a walmart and one of those every couple days while running errands or commuting from work I typically see baren shelves. In fact the reloading section is worse than the ammo section, which usually has 300 win mag and 450 beowulf or 350 legend
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Quoted: I see 150ct boxes of Winchester M193 and M855 with LC brass at Cabelas and Bass Pro for $75 every few weeks. Usually 100 boxes at a time with a 2-5 box limit. So there is SOME but stopping by a walmart and one of those every couple days while running errands or commuting from work I typically see baren shelves. View Quote Walmart announced in September 2019 that they planned to stop selling 5.56, 9mm, .38, .45, .40, and just about every other caliber except for shotgun, .22,and some other hunting rounds. I believe they finally stopped selling them around January, but I could be off on that (it's been a long year!). They were blowing out the discontinued ammo at the end. I believe Winchester 200 round boxes of 5.56 were selling for $49.99, even prior to the announcement that they were no longer going to carry those calibers, and then they flew off the shelves following the announcement. There was no limit, and people were stacking shopping carts full of whatever was left. |
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Quoted: Have you tried calling the manufacturers and ordering direct from them? Before this craziness CCI/Speer were selling direct to smaller shops. That way the smaller shops weren't beholden to the distributers. Just a thought. View Quote No I have not, primarily because I heard that they were charging a pretty stiff price for the direct sales they were making |
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Long overdue for one of these big companies to start manufacturing primers for one.
I don't buy the shortage 100%. If you have 100's of millions of $ in your business, you can easily buy a factory, employ hundreds of people and start churning it out on a mass scale. Do that 10x over.... GO! |
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Quoted: Long overdue for one of these big companies to start manufacturing primers for one. I don't buy the shortage 100%. If you have 100's of millions of $ in your business, you can easily buy a factory, employ hundreds of people and start churning it out on a mass scale. Do that 10x over.... GO! View Quote Buying a new factory would take 2-4 years to purchase, build, acquire tooling, and train workers. It wouldn't break even for 10-20 years after that, the tooling is tremendously expensive. It doesn't make sense to do that for a 2-4 year shortage, especially when you don't know if demand will do due to regulation in, say, a year. |
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Quoted: I see 150ct boxes of Winchester M193 and M855 with LC brass at Cabelas and Bass Pro for $75 every few weeks. Usually 100 boxes at a time with a 2-5 box limit. So there is SOME but stopping by a walmart and one of those every couple days while running errands or commuting from work I typically see baren shelves. In fact the reloading section is worse than the ammo section, which usually has 300 win mag and 450 beowulf or 350 legend View Quote I just picked up 2 boxes of them for $75. Was told 5 box limit. Think there was 10 then 8 after I grabbed my 2. Should of bought 5 but I didn't feel like dropping $400 even tho I could of lol |
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Quoted: Long overdue for one of these big companies to start manufacturing primers for one. I don't buy the shortage 100%. If you have 100's of millions of $ in your business, you can easily buy a factory, employ hundreds of people and start churning it out on a mass scale. Do that 10x over.... GO! View Quote We are hiring and expanding where I work. We've been doing that for the last several years. There was a lull in hiring the last couple of years but the manufacturing capacity has been expanding. Again why produce and sell only primers when there is more revenue in loaded ammo. |
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Someone in GD posted a listing from a shop on Canada that was selling WWB 5.56 for pre-covid/election prices. If supply is the reason for the insane price increases in the US, why aren't Canadian retailers raising prices? Their ammo comes from the same place
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